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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
349 am CDT Sat may 23 2015

Short term...(today through Monday afternoon)
issued at 336 am CDT Sat may 23 2015

Current water vapor analysis shows a distinct wave of energy over
southeast South Dakota this morning. The feature is working against
some drier air though...and only very light rains showers are
occurring south of our County Warning Area. These light rain showers may make it
north into our County Warning Area this morning...however if they do
persist...coverage will be limited. Only slight chance probability of precipitation remain
in the forecast.

Weak energy will stream ahead of the main low pressure system and
over our region this afternoon...therefore low probability of precipitation continue.
Overall confidence is low however. Very little quantitative precipitation forecast is expected with
any showers. Moisture is still on track to increase late Saturday
through Sunday...with precipitable waters over an inch by Sunday morning.
Plus...models agree fairly well on the next wave of energy working
from south to north across the region...mainly between 06z-18z
Sunday. High chance and likely probability of precipitation reside in this time frame.
Several more rounds of energy will influence the region Sunday
afternoon through Monday and should result in scattered to numerous
rainshowers across the region. Still looking pretty stable
overall...although models do try to suggest an increase in cape
across the southwest County Warning Area Sunday afternoon/evening.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler due to cloud cover and
showers...but generally speaking...high temperatures will range in the 60s
through the Holiday weekend.

Long term...(monday evening through friday)
issued at 336 am CDT Sat may 23 2015

Not much has changed in 24 hours. The 00z solutions tonight are all
still relatively stable concerning temperatures in the out periods. 850hpa
and 925hpa thermal forecasts support near to perhaps slightly above
normal temperatures throughout the extended /no major heat waves or
cold spells detected/. Still looks like several chances for rain
showers and thunderstorms during the period...too. Superblend is
trying to dry out a couple forecast periods...but still smears probability of precipitation
across quite a bit of the day 3 1/2 to day 7 timeframe. Still
thinking Tuesday night into the first half of Wednesday may end up
being more dry than well as perhaps from the middle of
Thursday through Friday night.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 105 am CDT Sat may 23 2015

VFR conditions are expected through most of the night. However on
Saturday MVFR ceilings are expected to gradually advect north into the
region from the south via higher moisture southeast breezes. A few
showers are expected to form during the morning and move northeast
over the region during the day.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...serr
long term...dorn

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