Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1126 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2016

issued at 529 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2016

Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory a little early this evening.
Although winds are expected to remain gusty all observations and
web cameras are not showing reductions in visibility at this time.
Winds will gradually diminish overnight and through the day


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 233 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2016

The wind will slowly decrease this evening across the County Warning Area...with an
end to any blowing snow by middle evening. For Tuesday into Tuesday
night a system will track southeast into the western part of the
state. After looking at soundings/predicted not
particularly excited about precipitation amounts...or probability of precipitation for that matter.
Soundings do suggest perhaps some potential for fzdz Tuesday
evening...but for now will leave that out of the forecast. On
Wednesday a more prolific system will track southeast in fast upper
flow...with a band of light snow expected to move across north
central and northeast South Dakota. Most of the snow should push
off into Minnesota Wednesday night. Temperatures will continue to
vary widely across the state during the term...with chilly and below
normal readings in the east...and relatively mild temperatures out West

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 233 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2016

The upper level pattern will continue to feature a ridge over the
West Coast...long wave trough across the eastern Continental U.S. And northwest
flow over our least through the work week. Under this
pattern...temperatures will remain just on the cool side of normal
and the only chance for precipitation looks to be in the Thursday
night/Friday time frame when weak shortwave energy will slide over
the northern plains.

We will start to see a change in the pattern by the weekend however.
Unfortunately...there isn't much in the way of model consensus and
consistency by the tail end of the long term. Models do agree on a
very strong 500 mb low moving into the Hudson Bay region...resulting
in cold air and a 1040 mb surface high sinking into the northern
plains. Where models disagree how quickly this high
shifts east Saturday...and the timing and effects of a clipper
system to follow. The European model (ecmwf) and Gem keep the cold air in place
through Sunday...but also suggests the clipper system will be over
our region by Sunday morning. Whereas the GFS is about 12 hours
slower with the timing of the shortwave...and shows a much stronger
warm air advection pattern. Due to the differences...superblend
remains the favored guidance.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1123 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2016

A small area of MVFR stratus along the Sisseton hills is affecting
Katy. This is expected to dissipate by 9z. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected through morning. Tuesday afternoon MVFR ceilings
will move into central South Dakota and impact kmbg and kpir.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


long term...serr

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations