Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
901 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Update...
issued at 853 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Temperatures have risen just enough this morning that wind chills
are no longer reaching advisory criteria. Cancelled the advisory
early as a result. However conditions will still be quite cool
through much of the day with wind chills remaining in the -10 to
-20 range into the afternoon.

&&

Short term...(today through Friday afternoon)
issued at 330 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Current water vapor imagery is showing shortwave energy dropping
southward across the Dakotas. Scattered/broken patches of low clouds
associated with this...and even some light snow and flurries. In
fact...upstream observation earlier this morning have been as low as 1sm
to 3sm. Already updated forecast earlier this morning to add
flurries across the area through the early morning hours. Kabr
radar beginning to show some echoes moving into South Dakota at this time.
Also watching temperature and wind trends as we currently remain in a
Wind Chill Advisory. Current wind chill values are not quite in
criteria as winds are fairly light. Patches of clouds are also
keeping temperatures up in a few spots. Although...as the secondary push
of colder air moves in with the front over the next few
hours...expect to see a slight increase in wind speeds. This is
already evidenced upstream. Will leave headline in place with
expectations that wind chills will eventually get into that 20
below to 30 below range by around sunrise or so. Otherwise for
today...much below normal temperatures will be felt as the cold air mass
builds south. Will only see highs in the single digits and teens.

Surface high moves right overhead tonight with light winds and mostly
clear skies. Great radiational cooling night setting up and have
lowered temperatures slightly in the James Valley where temperatures should
bottom out nicely. Fresh snow cover will also allow temperatures to
tumble elsewhere across a good chunk of the County Warning Area.

As the high moves east on Thursday...warmer air will begin
spreading across the northern plains...especially by Friday. There
is still some discrepancy amongst the models in regards to 925/850
mb temperatures by Friday afternoon...and quite a difference between ece
and mex guidance highs. That said though...still forecasting a
nice rebound in temperatures Friday with highs in the 30s and 40s for
most areas.

Long term...(friday evening through tuesday)
issued at 330 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

A fairly benign weather pattern is expected to continue over the
region through the long term. There are a couple of waves in the
northwest flow aloft but both deterministic and ensemble probability of precipitation
remain low. For now will leave forecast dry. Temperatures overall
will be near to above normal...perhaps even significantly above
normal by the latter part of the period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 514 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the region today.
However early this morning a batch of light snow will move across
kabr/Katy and provide for a relatively brief period of MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys. After middle morning mainly VFR conditions are again
expected.



&&

Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...wise
short term...tmt
long term...tdk
aviation...tdk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations