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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
519 PM CST Friday Nov 28 2014

aviation discussion has been updated.

Previous discussion...
short term...tonight through Saturday
strong warm air advection will persist through the night as a low
pressure system is on track to move across North Dakota Saturday. As
such...a strong inversion has set up across the region...and fog
is a concern tonight into Saturday morning. The best chances for
fog do appear to extend from east central South Dakota through
southern Minnesota. However...confidence is much lower when it
comes to the fog potential further west. The NAM and related sref
models are showing more low level moisture out west /surface dewpoint
depressions less than 1 degree/ as compared to the GFS/ECMWF/Gem
/surface dewpoint depressions greater than 10 degrees/. Given the
dry west southwest winds...would tent to hedge toward the
GFS/ECMWF/Gem solutions. Perhaps snow melt across the southwest County Warning Area
/kpir was carrying an inch of snow depth as of the morning report/
can provide the additional moisture needed. However further north
toward kmbg...observation are coming in with only trace amounts of snow on
the ground. However because of the high uncertainty...did blanket
the region under a patchy fog mention for much of the County Warning Area tonight
into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will likely warm through the night...however...the
next Arctic front approaches tomorrow afternoon. Therefore...high
temperatures will likely peak in the early afternoon...and fall quickly

Long term...Saturday night through Friday
weather highlights for days 2 through 7 include the possibility of
some snow showers/flurries Saturday night as cold Arctic plunge
wrings out any low level moisture. Temperatures way below normal
for Sunday/Monday. Then low level warm air advection is prognosticated for Monday
night/Tuesday...complete with 0.5km S-southwesterly winds in the GFS/European model (ecmwf)
of 50 to 65 knots over that down slope wind favored region of
northeast South Dakota. Perhaps not an ideal scenario in which to
blow snow around if temperatures can actually warm up close to or
above freezing Saturday. A signal of 50+knots suggests wind gusts
could be in excess of 50 miles per hour in the Lee of the prairie Coteau
Monday night/Tuesday morning. Then...dry conditions are expected
for the remainder of the week while super cold air appears to get
bottled up to the north of this County Warning Area. Tuesday through Friday
temperatures are expected to be closer to normal.


00z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. As a low
pressure system approaches...winds will switch from the southeast
around to the west southwest. Wind speeds however...will
generally remain under 10kts. Middle/high clouds will be prevalent
across the region.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


short term...serr
long term...dorn


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