Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
324 am CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Short through Sunday
upper level ridging will remain in place over the western part of
the country through the short term period. Will see some weak
energy ride over the ridge and across the County Warning Area today...then again
Saturday night over the northeastern County Warning Area. Weak surface low
pressure will be over the area...but with no real significant
boundary around. Therefore...will once again just see some
isolated showers or weak thunderstorms develop due to daytime
heating...mainly across the western County Warning Area where weak instability

With no real upper support late tonight and Saturday...expect
mainly dry conditions...then will reintroduce small probability of precipitation to the
northeastern County Warning Area in association with the upper wave Saturday
night. Sunday looks to be pretty much dry as the wave tracks away
from the area.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through
the short term period...with highs mainly in the middle 80s across
the east...and in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the west.

Long term...Sunday night through Thursday
middle level ridging over The Rockies should gradually Delaware-amplify as
energy makes its way through the ridge and flattens it. There are
chances for convection just about every period of the long
term...however the best opportunity looks to be about Tuesday
night through Wednesday as more consolidated looking energy will
be able to interact with a nearly stationary boundary across the
region. Thus probability of precipitation are highest for this time period. The rest of
the time will feature hit and miss rain chances. Temperatures will
probably start out near or above normal at the beginning of the
period...then trend to near or below normal by the middle of next


06z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals

VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. Isolated
showers are possible across north central South Dakota. However...due to
the isolated nature...will not include a mention in the tafs at
this time. Southeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 kts near
kmbg/kpir on Friday.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.

Short term...Parkin


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations