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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1241 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Update...
see below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

Forecast for today is on track and only very minor tweaks needed
for sky cover. Will see sunny skies today with light winds and
above normal temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees.



&&
Previous discussion...
short term...through Monday

Middle level clouds moving overhead now but fetch is oriented more
towards North Dakota for today. Thus...expecting sunny skies as
high pressure settles overhead. 850 mb readings are between +6c and
+12c...though mixing will not be as efficient thanks to weak
winds. That said...mixed down temperatures remain well above
normal...generally in the upper 60s/low 70s. 850 mb readings increase
in warm advection as high pressure moves east...topping out
between +14c and +20c late Sunday. Low level flow is
south/southeast which is less efficient for mixing but mixed down
temperatures still well into the 70s. A weak trough will pass
overhead...so a bit better mixing and much lower humidity is
expected for central/western counties. Westerly middle level flow and
cold air advection takes over for Monday. Temperatures will
still mix out fairly efficiently despite cooling temperatures
aloft...and mixed down winds on the order of 15 to 25kts also
evident.



Long term...Monday night through Saturday

An upper trough will move through the northern plains at the start
of the period and then transition to a persistent period of
northwest flow aloft. At the moment there are no probability of precipitation in the
extended forecast. The main system on Monday night/Tuesday will
primarily affect areas north and east of South Dakota. Forcing and moisture
availability are very limited. However...there is some possibility
of flurries or light sprinkles due to strong cold air advection. Temperatures
will top out near or slightly below normal through Friday with
highs in the upper 40s to 50s. Saturday may see a return to above
normal temperatures as an upper ridge shifts over the plains and
southerly flow sets up at the surface.



&&
Aviation...
18z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Watch out
later tonight...though...as models depict a reasonably strong low
level jet getting going after 00z across central South
Dakota...which is forecast to spread over into eastern South
Dakota late tonight/early Sunday morning. Low level wind shear has
been introduced into the tafs.



&&

Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$
Update...tmt
short term...Connelly
long term...wise
aviation...dorn

Weather.Gov/Aberdeen

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