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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
1230 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

see updated aviation discussion below.

Previous discussion...
short term...tonight through Friday night
an upper level trough of low pressure and surface cold front is
currently crossing the central County Warning Area. There have been a few
lightning strike associated with this system...however they are
too sporadic to mention in the forecast. The back end of this band
of precipitation should be located along I-29 by 0z...and east of the County Warning Area
by 3z. Dry conditions will prevail through the rest of the period.

Upper level ridge briefly takes hold of the region on Thursday
with highs climbing back into the 70s for most locations. A low
pressure system passing well north of the region will cool off middle
level temperatures on Friday. Even with the cooling temperatures...decent
mixing winds should promote above normal temperatures again with
highs in the 70s.

Long term...Saturday through Wednesday
models show good agreement in the long term with the upper level
flow pattern and individual short waves and the surface cold
front to come through. Upper level high pressure out west to begin
the long term will move east through the weekend with a low
pressure trough following in behind. At the surface...high
pressure...light winds...clear skies...and dry conditions are
expected on Saturday across all of the County Warning Area. The surface high
pressure area will push east Saturday night and Sunday with winds
becoming south and increasing into Sunday. At this time...expect
above normal temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday in the 60s
and lower 70s. With warm air advection on Sunday along with sunshine...may have
to raise sunday's highs a little. It looks like it will also be
breezy/windy on Sunday with a tight surface pressure gradient
along with good mixing of the low level winds. Otherwise...the
models show a surface cool front and surface low pressure area
moving across the region from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening. This will bring some small chances of light showers
mainly Sunday night into Monday night. It will cool down into
Monday and Tuesday as surface high pressure pushes in. Monday
through Wednesday are expected to be dry with highs mainly in the
50s. There could be some upper 40s in the east on Tuesday.
Also...when the cool front comes through...expect breezy/windy
northwest winds across the region Sunday night into Monday.


06z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals

Mostly clear skies are expected overnight. High moisture levels in
the east may contribute to some late night fog otherwise mainly
VFR conditions are expected through the valid taf period.


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.

Short term...South Dakota
long term...mohr


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