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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota
340 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

Short term...(today through Friday afternoon)
issued at 336 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

A cold front will push through the County Warning Area...mainly before 21z today.
This front should pass through the County Warning Area dry...with only cloudy
skies and breezy northerly winds expected. While patchy drizzle is
possible today...will not mention in the forecast.

An upper level trough of low pressure currently over northern
California will eventually spread light snow into this County Warning Area later
tonight and through the day on Thursday. Still expecting little
snowfall for locations east of Highway 83. Areas west of Highway
83 could see a dusting up to an inch of snow from 6z to 18z
Thursday. Conditions should dry out fairly quickly Thursday
afternoon as a northern stream trough and surface high pressure
crosses the region. With a high pressure over the region Thursday
night...lows will have the potential to bottom out in the single digits
above zero. Friday will be dry with seasonal temperatures.

Long term...(friday evening through tuesday)
issued at 336 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

Very little model consensus or consistency in the long term
period...therefore uncertainty remains high. The long term challenge
will be the evolution of an upper level closed low system that
originates over the southwest Continental U.S....eventually drifting
north...then slowly moving east and wobbling over the northern
plains states. While there are several different takes on the
resultant quantitative precipitation forecast with this appears like the best chance for
light snow will be during the Sunday and Monday time frames when 500
mb height falls and waves of middle level warm air advection are
coupled. Superblend remains the model blend of choice...which means
broad brushed slight chance to chance probability of precipitation across the region. No
large fluctuations in temperatures through the period...remaining
near to slightly above normal.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1124 PM CST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

The likelihood of seeing sub-VFR visbies/ceilings in fog/stratus at
kabr/Katy out ahead of the cold frontal passage is diminishing
substantially. Pulled the start time of MVFR ceilings back to 11z at
kabr/Katy...but that is becoming a low confidence forecast. The
better probability of seeing ceilings somewhere between 600ft above ground level and
3000ft above ground level is in the Post cold frontal passage air and appears to be best
timed reaching kmbg by 16z...kabr/kpir by 19z and Katy by 21z on


Abr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...South Dakota
long term...serr

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