Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
213 PM akst Friday Dec 6 2013
models fairly similar through 36 hours. Models begin to diverge
after that. The models all pick up on an upper level low coming
across the Arctic coast of far east Russia however the European model (ecmwf) holds
it together while the GFS loses the identity of it completely with
the exception of a short wave.
The European model (ecmwf) strengthens the upper low and dives it down into the
interior of Alaska by Tuesday morning. At this time...prefer the GFS
because of the strength of the upper level ridge that the low is
going into battle against.
Copious amounts of warm air over the entire northern portion of
the state is causing wide spread freezing rain and just plain
rain as moisture makes up around the upper ridge. The freezing
rain will spread as far as Barter Island by Sat morning. A cold
front lying through the Bering Strait is changing over the
liquid precipitation to snow this afternoon. This will push slowly
eastward through the weekend before the Arctic front crashes south
by late sun and Monday to change any left over precipitation back to
Winds along the Arctic coast have increased but are dropping back
off before increasing again Sat. Fairly heavy snow in the Brooks
range will likely also occur with this moisture feed.
The heavy rain on the West Coast has the potential for possibly
being on the verge of minor flooding given the amount of potential
rainfall and given that the ground remains frozen.
Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none
Winter Storm Warning for akz204-akz206-akz208-akz217-akz218-
Freezing Rain Advisory for akz222.
Winter Weather Advisory for akz201-akz202-akz203-akz205.
Small Craft Advisory for pkz225.
Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz215-pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.
Cf Dec 13