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NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
502 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL SPLIT IN TWO AS A LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES TO BANKS
ISLAND 4AM WED...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM BETTLES TO KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE TO THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WEST OF ANCHORAGE BY 4AM TUE. STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST OVER
THE BROOKS RANGE MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE
INTERIOR TO EXTEND ALONG 65 NORTH LATITUDE 4PM WED.

SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST
AND BUILD TO 1031 MB TUE AM WEST OF BARROW. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WHICH MOVES SOUTH
TO BANKS ISLAND 4AM WED. TUE NIGHT THE HIGH WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE TROUGH AND BE LOCATED NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY
4PM WED. 1016 MB LOW OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE TO KING SALMON BY
10 PM MON NIGHT. 1016 MB LOW NEAR EAGLE WILL MOVE TO WHITEHORSE
TUE AM. 

MODELS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED ON THE MOVEMENT OF
FEATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...INCLUDING THE UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND GRAZING NORTHEAST AK ON
TUE INTO WED. IN THE MEDIUM TERM THERE IS WIDE VARIANCE ON THE
STRENGTH OF A LOW TREKING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND ON HOW
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY TUE FROM BARROW
TO CANADA AS SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES SOUTH...THEN
WINDS TURNING BACK TO NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST OF
BARROW WED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUE
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE LOW ALOFT
MOVING SOUTH TOWARD BANKS ISLAND.

WESTERN ALASKA...RAIN ENDING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR THIS MORNING WHILE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...THEN ENDING OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH EARLY TUE AS SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG TODAY WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN NORTON...THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...AND NORTH
SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK INSTABILITY UNDER WEAKENING
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. FREQUENT SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER THE DENALI AREA FROM THE SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH
OVER WESTERN AK TODAY. ON TUE THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...FROM DELTA JUNCTION SOUTHEAST...AND AS
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH WED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
CORNER OF THE INTERIOR. REMAINDER WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER TUE
THROUGH WED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXTENSIVE DRYING SHOULD BEGIN TUE OVER ALL AREAS
NW OF DELTA JUNCTION AS RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS SOUTH.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD APPROACH 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN INTERIOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JL JUL 14

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