Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
158 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014
high pressure will build into and over the area from the
northwest today through Wednesday...then slide off the coast
on Thursday. Frontal boundary will drift back toward the middle
Atlantic coast Friday through Saturday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
unseasonably deep trough aloft in vicinity of eastern Continental U.S. Has driven cold front S
to the Gulf CST the past 24 hours. Mainly scattered-broken middle level cloudiness over
portions of the forecast area...especially southern Virginia/NE NC at this time. Air comfy west/ low dewpoints
(mnly from the m50s to l60s). Expecting a sunny to pcldy day...though not
ruling out an isolated rain showers/thunderstorm in vicinity of coastal NE NC (in an area of
slightly enhanced low level convergence). Hi temperatures avgg 5 to 10 degrees f
below normal...ranging from the M/u70s at the CST...to the l80s
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/...
trough aloft lingers over eastern Continental U.S. Through midweek. Another
comfy/mostly sky clear night tonight with low temperatures ranging from the m50s to l60s
most places. P/msny again on Wednesday with hi in the l/m80s. Mostly clear
Wednesday night with low temperatures ranging from the u50s to m60s. Weak surface hi pressure
will be off the CST for Thursday...with south-southeast low level flow across the area.
Only a very slight increases in humidity is expected (on thu)...otherwise p/msny
west/ hi temperatures in the l/m80s (maybe a few u80s inland).
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
extended period characterized by persistent upper level trough
over the eastern third of the Continental U.S.. beginning of the period stays
dry Thursday night. On Friday...models beginning to bring incrsg moisture
into the region from the south-southwest. Have nudged probability of precipitation up an average of 10% (highest
inland) for Friday...resulting in possible isolated/scattered precipitation (mnly away from
the cst) along west/ vrb clouds/mcldy conds.
Some scattered (mainly diurnally driven) rain showers expected over the
weekend as the trough retrogrades back towards the middle MS valley
and a coastal front/inverted trough will locate along/just off the
middle- Atlantic/southeast coast. This will also bring an increase in
humidity through this same weekend/early next week time frame.
For temperatures...look for highs to remain at or below climatology
normal...generally riding into the l-M 80s. Early morning lows
generally in the 60s Sat morning, incrementally increasing to u60s
to around 70 by early Monday.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 17z...scattered to broken stratocu was present across portions of the
Middle Atlantic States. One band was moving off the coast while another
area of these clouds was developing from the west. Expect mainly scattered
clouds with bases of 3 to 4k feet which is forecast to clear off
toward sunset. Winds will be generally from the north and NE over southeast
portions of the area and northwest or north at ric and sby at 5 to 10 knots
Tuesday afternoon and around 5 knots or less from similar directions on
Wednesday. Winds go to calm or light and variable overnight.
Outlook...dry weather is forecast through Thursday. There will be a
a chance for mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. VFR is
expected outside of precipitation although patchy MVFR/IFR fog could develop
near sunrise beginning Friday.
Note: observations from ksby are not readily available due to a
communications problem. Return to service is unknown at this time.
However...current information may be obtained by calling into the
ASOS site directly. Amend not schedule will be appended to the ksby taf
until further notice.
cold front is pushing farther offshore Erly this morng. Small Craft Advisory for the
Bay/lower James will end at 4 am as winds are slowly diminishing with
weakening cold air advection behind the front. With hi pressure building in from the west and
winds 5-10 knots...some sea breeze effects are possible today. Expect 1-2 feet
waves over the Bay and 2-3 feet seas over coastal waters. Winds remain at or below 10
knots into Wednesday with surface hi pressure still in the vicinity. Winds become southerly by
Thursday as the hi slides offshore and low pressure passes well north of the local
area. Coastal front/inverted trough approaches from the east by the
weekend...with winds veering around to the S-SW late in the weekend
with rain chances increasing again over the waters.