Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
352 PM EDT sun Aug 2 2015
high pressure remains over the region through Monday. A weak cold
front moves across the area Tuesday...then slowly dissipates as it
stalls across North Carolina Wednesday and Thursday.
Near term /tonight/...
will keep low chance for sea breeze convection going across southeastern Virginia
and NE NC through 00z. Otw...mostly clear to pt cloudy as high prs remains
over the region. Lows m60s-l70s.
Short term /Monday through Wednesday/...
Monday will be much like today as high prs dominates. However...a
Lee trough prognosticated in advance of apprchg frontal boundary with anthr weak
disturbance tracking NE along the stalled boundary across NC. The
downsloping flow and lack of instability should inhibit any convective
activity across the Piedmont...however enough moisture / wind convergence
seen to keep isolated diurnal convection mentioned across southeast Virginia/NE NC.
850 mb temperatures sprt highs l-m90s expect M-u80s at the beaches. M clear to pt
cloudy Monday night with any convection dsptg aftr sunset. Lows u60s-l70s
xcpt m70s beach areas.
Eastern trough sharpens enough to allow the apprchg frontal boundary to enter the
forecast area from the north. Best moisture and instability sprt for diurnal convection to
develop prognosticated across Northern Neck and Eastern Shore where chance probability of precipitation will be
maintained. Otw...slght chance as boundary sags south across the region. Still
above normal with 850 mb temperatures sprtg highs 90-95...xcpt M-u80s beach areas
before any convection. Any convection dspts aftr sunset. Lows Tuesday night
Boundary washes out / dspts across the region Wednesday. Still enough sprt for
isolated diurnal convection. Highs u80s-l90s.
Heat index values through Wednesday top out around 100 degrees with the highest
values across interion southeastern Virginia/NE NC.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
long term period will feature frequent chances of rain with slightly
decreasing temperatures through the period. Tough to time exactly when best
chances will be but the forecast calls for a 30-40% chance of
rain showers/thunderstorms each afternoon/eveng through Sat...and a 20-30% chance each
night/morng. Pattern will feature an upper-level trough over the far eastern
Continental U.S. With transient shortwave troughs passing through the middle Atlantic
region. As for temperatures...highs will drop from the upper 80s/lower 90s Thursday
to low/middle 80s Sat and sun.
Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/...
weak surface hi pressure will nudge in from the west this afternoon. Meanwhile...a
frontal boundary will linger alng the NC CST this afternoon into Monday.
This boundary and sea breeze interaction could produce isolated
showers or thunderstorms over southeast Virginia (korf) and NE NC (kecg) this afternoon into
early this eveng. Otherwise...expect mainly VFR conditions into
Monday afternoon...with just scattered cumulus/ac/CI and winds turning from the NE to
A cold front approaches the region from the northwest Monday night...then slowly
drops across the region Tuesday into Wednesday morng. This front will provide
small chances for mainly afternoon/eveng showers and/or thunderstorms.
sub-Small Craft Advisory conds expected late this afternoon with seabreezes near the CST.
Winds become southerly aftr midnite ~10 knots with 1-2 feet waves over the Bay and
2-3 feet seas over coastal waters. A weak trough low pressure then approaches from
the northwest Monday with winds slowly increasing through the day. Small Craft Advisory conds will
commence over the Bay and northern coastal waters around late afternoon Monday as the
pressure gradient increases over the area. Expect 15-20 knots winds over
the Bay through Erly Tuesday morng...with 4-5 feet seas and 15-25 knots winds
over coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light. Seas should drop below 5 feet by
midday/afternoon Tuesday. Weak surface hi pressure returns to the region late Tuesday
through Wednesday with S-SW winds at or below 15 knots and waves 1-2 feet/seas 2-4 feet.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 am EDT Tuesday for
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for