Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
627 am EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
low pressure will intensify as it slowly tracks northeast off the
New England coast today through Friday. High pressure settles
over the Middle Atlantic States for Friday into Saturday. Dry cold
front moves across the region Saturday night. High pressure builds
back into and over the area for Sunday and Monday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
early this morng...surface low pressure was centered off the New Jersey CST.
The low will continue to intensify as it slowly tracks NE off the
New England CST today through Friday. Meanwhile...hi pressure will gradually
build in from the Ohio Valley. The pressure gradient remains tight between
these two features today...allowing breezy/windy conditions to
continue. Highest winds will be along the CST where gusts of
30-35 miles per hour will occur...15-25 miles per hour elsewhere. Will maintain a 20%
pop over the eastern shr into early this afternoon...dry weather elsewhere. Still
enough residual low level moisture and a cold pool aloft for the
sky to average out mostly cloudy east-northeast to partly to mostly sunny
west-southwest. Highs ranging from the upper 50s to around 60 on the lower Maryland eastern
shr...to the upper 60s for interior NE NC and S central Virginia.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
clear/mostly clear west-southwest to partly cloudy NE tonight...with lows
ranging through the 40s into the lower 50s. Low pressure continues to move
farther NE and away from the local area on Friday...allowing for a
mainly sunny sky...diminishing winds...and milder temperatures. Highs
on Friday ranging from the middle 60s NE to around 70 SW. Hi pressure remains
in control on Sat with dry and pleasant conditions. Highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
a weak trough clips the northern middle-Atlantic Saturday night and quickly
moves off the coast Sunday. A high amplitude middle/upper level ridge
builds over the eastern US Monday and Tuesday...with the axis shifting
offshore by Wednesday. Given this...dry conditions will prevail
through Wednesday. High temperatures should average in the upper 60s
to around 70 Sunday...and trend upward into the low/middle 70s by
Monday through Wednesday. Lows through the period should average
from the low/middle 40s northwest...to the low/middle 50s for southeast coastal
locations. A cold front approaches from the northwest later in the period.
22/12z GFS/European model (ecmwf) each have trended somewhat wetter as a wave of low
pressure develops along the front. However...moisture appears to be
Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conds over regional terminals this morning, with only some
patchy MVFR lingering along the coast ivof ksby with ceilings ~3kft.
Deepening low pressure system now well of the New York/New Jersey coastline...and will
continue up the New England coast by the end of the taf
period...eventually locating off the coast of Maine by Friday
morning. Conds will gradually improve through the day, with VFR
conds to persist across the entire region through Friday morning.
Pressure gradient will remain compressed today...resulting in gusty
north-northwest winds to around 20-25 knots over the Eastern Shore into Thursday
Outlook...high pressure will continue to build over the region
from the west Thursday night and Friday. VFR conds look to persist Friday
and through thw weekend.
deepening area of low pressure continues to lifts NE off the
northeast coast this morning...and will lift to a position off the
New England by tonight. Latest observation reflect north-northwest winds 20-30kt, with
gusts to around 35kt. Gales remain in place over the coastal waters
and the mouth of ches Bay through this afternoon...and should be replaced
by Small Craft Advisory from south to north this afternoon as pressure gradient begins to
slacken. Expect subsequent scas will remain flying through Friday
aftn/evening. Seas have increased to 8-10 feet out near 20nm...4-6ft
seas nearshore (3-5ft waves in the bay). As surface low continues to
lift NE towards Nova Scotia on Friday, high pressure will build to
the west of the waters, allowing seas to gradually subside below 5
feet by Friday afternoon. Another weak frontal boundary crosses the region
Saturday night bringing the potential for another brief period of
Small Craft Advisory conditions late Sat night/early sun. High pressure eventually builds
over the area late Sunday through midweek.
have added a coastal Flood Advisory for this morning's high tide cycle
over Worcester County. Tidal departures in vicinity of Ocean City
Inlet will average 1.5-2.0 feet above normal during high tide again
Thursday morning. The current forecast has Ocean City Inlet
exceeding minor during high tide Thursday morning as the
astronomical tide will be a few tenths higher. With a north-northwest
wind...the main areas of concern will be along the shorelines of
Assawoman and chincoteauge bays...and the adjacent ocean inlets.
Maryland...coastal Flood Advisory until 11 am EDT this morning for mdz024-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT Friday for anz635>638.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for anz634-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for anz650-652-654.