Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
326 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2014
a dry cold front crosses the area late tonight. High pressure builds
back into and over the area Sunday through Tuesday night. The next
cold front crosses the area late Wednesday.
Near term /tonight/...
dry cold front crosses the area after midnight. Little if any moisture
to work with...scattered clouds at best. SW winds shift to west then northwest late.
This keeps airmass mixed preventing temperatures from dropping to far. Lows
in the u40s-l50s...xcpt m50s at the beaches.
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
cold front pushes into the Carolinas Sunday morning as high prs
builds in from the north. Weak cold air advection combined with a compressed prs
gradient behind frontal passage results in a well mixed airmass Sunday. Expect
breezy to windy conditions (15-25 with g30 mph) along the coast...
lighter winds (10-20 mph) west of the Bay. The downslpoing component
to the wind allows temperatures to reach between 70-75.
The high builds over the area Sunday night and Monday...then shifts
offshore Tuesday. Dry through the period with pt to mostly sunny days
and fair nights. Cool Sun night. Lows in the u30s-l40s...45-50 at
the beaches. 850 mb temperatures around 13c results in highs u60s-l70s Monday.
Return flow sets up Monday night and Tuesday resulting in a warming trend.
Lows Monday night in the u40s-m50s. 850 mb temperatures around 16c sprt highs in the
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
lots of uncertainty with this forecast especially toward next
weekend. Initial front passes through on Wednesday. Slight
differences of timing on the front. Have chance probability of precipitation of showers with
this front as it pushes through. Then beginning Friday into Saturday
the models diverge. Have the European model (ecmwf) developing a deep cutoff low over
the southeast US while the GFS has the cutoff developing more toward
New England with a more progressive pattern. The European model (ecmwf) is toward the
deepest ensemble solution. However the overall upper air pattern is
such that it could support the cutoff over southeastern US. Will
have to watch how future model runs develop. Either way starting
on Thursday colder air begins to arrive and we have the coldest
air this fall across the area by Saturday. This drops highs into
the 50s Friday and Saturday with some upper 40s possible in western
sections. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s. If the winds stay
up should keep temperatures above freezing over all areas.
Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...
a trough followed by a weak dry cold front will pass through the
region this evening/overnight and will bring scattered clouds of 7-10 kft
to the taf sites between 25/2100z northwest through 26/0600z southeast. SW or west
winds will veer to the northwest and become breezy for sun morng into Sun
afternoon. Gusts will average 15-20 knots inland with higher gusts around
25 knots possible alng the immediate CST. Hi pressure settles over the
middle Atlantic region Sun night and Monday...then slides off the CST for Monday
night into Wednesday morng. Conditions will continue to be dry/VFR with
winds becoming south-southwest at generally less than 15 knots Monday afternoon. The
next cold front is expected to cross the area Wednesday into Wednesday eveng.
a weak cold frontal passage will occur late tonight into Sun
morning. West winds at or below 15kt will persist through the evening and
then veer to the northwest behind the cold front. Speeds will increase to
due to low level cold air advection (10-15kt rivers/sound...15-20kt
with gusts to 25kt ches Bay...15-25kt with gusts to 25 to 30kt
coastal waters Fenwick Island to Virginia/NC border). Seas will be slow to
rise due to a west-northwest direction but should average 3-4ft from 10-20nm.
Up to 5ft seas will be possible near 20nm from Fenwick Island to
Chincoteague. Small Craft Advisory flags have been raised for ches Bay and coastal
waters from Fenwick Island to the Virginia/NC border beginning after
midnight tonight and persisting through Sunday. High pressure
settles over the waters on Monday and then slides eastward off the coast
Monday night through Tuesday. A strong cold front will cross the
water Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will again generate small
craft conditions middle and late week.
aftr coordinate with surrounding offices / state agencies...will not issue
any fire danger statements at this time. Plan is to continue to highlight the
gusty winds & rh's around 30% across the Eastern Shore in the fwf. Rh's over
the Piedmont will drop into the m20s but with less wind.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 6 am to 6 PM EDT Sunday for anz632-
Small Craft Advisory from 2 am to 6 PM EDT Sunday for anz630-
Small Craft Advisory from 2 am to 11 PM EDT Sunday for anz650-