Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
658 am EDT Sat Mar 28 2015
a polar air mass will be over the region today, keeping
temperatures well below normal for late March. Sunshine will
return on Sunday with moderating temperatures. A weak frontal
system will bring light snow showers Sunday night.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
250 am update...
a deep polar air mass will rotate through the northeastern U.S.
Today, caught within an elongated trough. Abnormally cold temperatures
aloft (-15c to -17c at 925mb) will push into western New York today,
though models realistically show this air mass moderating today as
it gets cut off from its source region.
Still, the polar air will usher in very cold temperatures, with
maxes only reaching the lower or middle 20s in interior sections
of the Susquehanna region. The "warm air"...maximum temperatures near
30...will be confined to the southern forecast area.
1030 PM EST update...
forecast is still in very good shape. Have adjusted temperatures to match
reality. Temperatures are ranging in the 20s to 30s this evening. Temperature
forecast is in good shape and are still expected to fall into the
teens to low 20s. Snow showers are expected to be light and
continue through the overnight hours. For more information please read
the previous forecast discussion below.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
a surface high will drop out of the Great Lakes and into the Ohio
Valley and middle Atlantic region through Sunday morning. By late
Sunday, the high will be off the South Carolina coast, with a weak
return flow bringing moderation of temperatures to NY/PA.
Maxes/mins will remain several degrees below normal.
Sunday night, a surface front will push into western NY, causing
mainly light snow showers to form over our region. The snow shower
activity will gradually switch over to rain showers during the day
on Monday as the lower atmosphere warms. Maximum temperatures on Monday will
be in the 40s.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
2 am update...
more uncertainty with models divering. Big changes Thursday to
Saturday. Euro brings the next system in slower so Thursday
lowered probability of precipitation and upped temperatures. While the GFS shoots a cold front
through Thursday night the Euro brings a large system with more rain for
Friday to Saturday. Again upped probability of precipitation and temperatures. Used 00z wpc
extended guidance but had to lean toward older guidance and blend
with surrounding offices.
the mean trough in the east relaxes somewhat for the long range
bringing generally milder temperatures with a couple systems due
to affect the area.
To begin the period Monday night, a cold front will bring a
glancing shot of some colder air along with the chance of a few
flurries before weak surface ridging briefly moves in early
Tuesday morning. This will be short lived as a clipper type system
arrives by late morning into the afternoon bringing a little rain
to southern areas with a little snow or mixed precipitation possible
north. Following this system high pressure will move in for
Wednesday bringing fair weather with plenty of sunshine and
seasonal temperatures. A stronger low looks to move well north and
west of the area Thursday bringing warmer temperatures and rain showers
with a southerly flow. However once again this warm up looks to be
short lived as a cold front moves through either late next week or
the beginning of next weekend.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
7 am Sat update...
MVFR ceilings with northwest to north low level flow are now only Elm and avp.
Rest already became VFR but ith and bgm could drop back to MVFR.
MVFR ceilings lift to VFR midday. Tonight skies become scattered.
North to northwest surface winds should continue into tonight. 5 to 10 kts early
this morning become 10 with higher gusts during the day then
diminishing back to 5 to 10 kts this evening. Light and variable
Sun night to Tuesday night...restrictions likely in rain/snow.