Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
740 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2015
a weak storm system will spread a few showers or thunderstorms
across the region on Sunday. Thereafter, high pressure will build
into the northeast with clear weather and warmer temperatures.
Near term /through Sunday/...
730 PM update... satellite imagery continues to show the thicker
cloud canopy slowly approaching our forecast area from the west
this evening. We think that fairly dense middle-level clouds will
have enveloped much of the forecast area by 2 or 3 am.
As mentioned below, the increase in cloud cover should preclude
much in the way of valley fog formation overnight.
Lows by daybreak in the upper 50s-lower 60s still look
Previous discussion... middle-level clouds are taking their time
moving east, but eventually we expect overcast conditions to
develop late tonight. This should preclude fog development.
NAM and European model (ecmwf) each generate light precipitation early Sunday
morning, and we have a slight chance for a shower over the southwestern
Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday/...
dissipating wave sliding out of the Midwest will keep a chance for
showers or possibly a rumble of thunder over the forecast area on Sunday.
Convective available potential energy are forecast at only 150-250 j/kg, so instability should be
Ridge axis building out the plains will cross into the Great Lakes
region Sunday night, ending precipitation over New York/PA, and setting
the stage for warming temperatures and fair weather for Monday and
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
generally followed model blend (superblend) except went slightly
warmer for maximum temperatures by utilizing wpc guidance.
Quiet weather continues for the long range as the strongest and
most persist upper level ridge of the Summer will result in mainly
fair weather with well above average temperatures.To start the
period, dry and mainly clear skies persist for Tuesday night and
Wednesday with lows in the 60s and highs in the middle to upper 80s.
While we do keep a slight chance of isolated showers/storms in
for the latter two days of the work week it is Worth emphasizing
that even if any precipitation occurs the majority of the time conditions
remain dry with plenty of sunshine as ridge continues to
dominate. There will be little change in temperature with highs
continuing to remain in the 80s with lows in the 60s...these temperatures
being a good 10+ degrees above average.
Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
00z Sunday update... VFR is still expected throughout the valid
taf period (til 00z monday).
Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon
(after 18z). However, since radar coverage is expected to be
sparse overall, this activity will not be included in the terminal
forecasts at this time.
Light surface winds (5 knots or less) through Sunday morning, will
increase to 5-8 knots out of the southwest during the afternoon.
Sunday night through thursday: no significant weather expected.
Generally VFR, with local restrictions possible due to valley fog
each morning, with the most likely location kelm.