Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
116 am EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015
a ridge of high pressure will build into the area and bring hot
and humid weather through Wednesday. On Thursday...a cold front
will push through bringing showers and thunderstorms...followed
by somewhat cooler air for Friday.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
935 PM update...isolated convection has dissipated with loss of
diurnal heating. Surface high pressure will provide mainly clear skies
overnight with valley fog across the twin tiers and western
6:30 PM update:
a few isolated showers have developed over Tioga and Broome
counties with a weak middle level trough pushing through the
region. With some weak instability still remaining through sunset
these is a slight potential for thunder in these showers as they
continue into NE PA with most showers and thunder ending after
Much drier air in place tonight...both surface and aloft...and without
after conv...expect fog form in valley regions but to be much less
widespread than last night.
Short term /6 am this morning through Thursday/...
surface hipres and upper ridge builds Tuesday into Wednesday. Combination of drier
air and middle level warming will suppress any conv development despite the heating
as temperatures reach near of slightly above 90f. Warmest air will be over the
deeper valleys of the central southern tier and in nepa.
Cold fnt crashes into the ridge on Thursday but while ridge
flattens...plenty of middle level warm air apparently still around limiting
instability. Upper support for the fnt remains well back over the
lakes and model forecast of conv weakens through the day Thursday. In any
event...a least a chance of thunderstorm seems rsnbl for Thursday.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
300 PM update...
A quiet long term portion of the forecast. Sunshine is expected
Friday and Saturday with seasonable temperatures (highs in the 80s lows
in the 60s). The next potential for rain will be Sunday night
into Monday with a cold front.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
06z Tuesday update... VFR should prevail the majority of the
time...with mainly clear skies.
The one primary exception is kelm...where valley fog is expected
early this morning (08-13z; below alternate minimum restrictions).
Light surface winds should become west-northwest at 5-8 knots this
afternoon...before becoming light again after 00z Wednesday.
Wednesday...VFR...other than possible fog at kelm early in the
Thursday...restrictions possible in scattered showers/thunderstorms.