Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
140 PM EDT Thursday Jul 24 2014
Canadian high pressure will descend the Great Lakes today, bringing
cooler and drier air to New York and PA. A warm front passing through
the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms
to our region late Saturday.
Near term /through tonight/...
1030 am update...no sig changes to forecast aside from subtle
temperature/dewpoint and sky cover adjustments for current trends.
Early am discussion...
Canadian high pressure will bring cooler and drier into
the forecast area today. 925mb temperatures are prognosticated between 18c and 21c, leading
to pleasant surface temperatures in the 70s. Skies will be mostly sunny.
Wind speeds are in the teens through 600mb into the afternoon
hours, so no gusty mix down is forecast.
Short term /Friday through Sunday/...
models are in agreement for a dry start to the weekend. The high
pressure ridge remains firm through early Saturday, slowly
drifting eastward and swinging the flow to southerly. A gradual
warming trend will follow, with 80s returning for Saturday
A cyclone will pull a warm front through the Great Lakes on
Saturday, spreading precipitation into New York and PA toward the end of
the short term period.
There are significant timing differences for Saturday. The GFS
holds the precipitation off until late in the day or early in the
evening. The Euro is more aggressive, spreading showers and
thunderstorms into the forecast area by midday.
There is better agreement Saturday night, with showers and a few
thunderstorms moving along the warm front through the forecast area.
Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
140 PM update...
medium range models are finally coming into better agreement
regarding the active wet pattern for early next week. 595dm ridge
centered over The Four-Corners region on Sun night will keep troffiness
across the eastern U.S. Through the long term. Surface low pressure rotates
through the County Warning Area Monday afternoon with likely probability of precipitation expected due to strong shortwave
in base of trough coupled with diurnal heating. Frontal passage occurs Monday night
with hipres and drier weather moving in along with cooler temperatures. The
middle part of the week will be nice with just diurnally-driven
showers expected each afternoon.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
dry air advection continues across the area though scattered-broken VFR
clouds still remain through the afternoon hours. After 00z expect
sky clear to set in at all terminals. Question for the overnight is fog
potential at Elm. Have kept IFR visibility restrictions after 09z at 2sm
then becoming VFR after 13z. Radiation conditions look to be
perfect but wide dewpoint spreads may be too great to overcome.
Winds becoming light after 00z then increase to out of the west-northwest from
4-8kts after 15z Friday.
Sun-Mon...potential for restrictions in shra/tsra.
Tuesday...becoming VFR during the day.