Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
623 am EDT Friday Aug 29 2014
high pressure will bring fair weather to New York and PA today. A storm
system will move through northern New York and bring a chance for thunderstorms
Saturday into Sunday.
Near term /through tonight/...
patchy valley fog will burn off between 1230 and 1330z this
morning. Thereafter high pressure will settle in for a sunny,
clear weather day.
Still cool in the boundary layer up to 850mb so have restricted
maximum temperatures to the middle and upper 70s despite near full sun.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
a storm system will pull out of the Great Lakes and spread
increasing moisture into New York/PA Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
There is a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm over the far
western forecast area late Saturday.
Front will push toward lakes Erie and Ontario Saturday night, so
have oriented probability of precipitation from NE to SW. Sticking to mainly chance/scattered
coverage as instability and forcing are lacking. Expect far southeastern
forecast area to remain dry.
Several hundred joules of cape forecast for Sunday ahead of
frontal push. Not a ton of instability, but enough to push the
probability of precipitation into the high chance to likely range. Bulk shear values are
suggestive of some organization (around 30+ kts) so will need to
keep an eye on isolated strong convective potential.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
230 am update...
very little changes needed to long term this morning. Frontal passage looks
to occur during the day Tuesday but not confident enough to go likely
probability of precipitation at this time, but will likely need to be boosted as we get
closer to event. Following frontal passage expect temperatures to settle out near
seasonal values after warm start to the week. Aftr cold front mvs through
expect fairly zonal flow through end of extended with 590dm ridge along
Gulf Coast and troffing in Pacific northwest.
Aviation /10z Friday through Tuesday/...
fog has not materialized as extensively as once thought. In fact
Elm bounced briefly down to IFR twice overnight but had a hard time
setting in. VFR can be expected at all terminals the next 24 hours
with just some cirrus expected today. A middle-deck will likely
encroach from the west after 06z Saturday and will keep
restrictions from setting in from fog late tonight.
Near calm winds becoming light out of the southeast this morning,
then increasing to 5-7 knots after 06z tonight.
Late Friday night and Saturday...primarily VFR.
Sat night through Tuesday...possible brief restrictions from scattered
shra/tsra...mainly on Sunday and Tuesday.