Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
313 am EDT sun Apr 20 2014

Synopsis...
a ridge of high pressure will extend from New England...across
New York and Pennsylvania for the second half of the weekend
through Monday. Other than occasional thin high clouds...this will
allow sunshine and temperatures moderating to slightly above
climatological normal values today to especially Monday. Our next
rain arrives Tuesday as a showery cold front passes through the region.

&&

Near term /through Monday/...
130 am update...
veil of high thin clouds extends all the way up over PA/southern
New York...associated with upper low currently over the southeast
states. That will be the only impact from that system for our
region...with broad surface high now building from Quebec into the
northeast states much more dominant of our weather. A northern
stream cold front will become stationary while settling southward
out of Canada to Lake Ontario-northeast New York Monday...a non-player
for our region...allowing continued warm air advection to occur.

While still a decent radiational cooling night overall...the high
thin clouds are somewhat limiting the temperature dropoff during
these predawn hours /especially twin tiers southward/. Expecting much
of nepa to end up staying above freezing...while upper 20s to low
30s will be more common in central New York early this morning.

Despite the cool start...warm air advection will quickly get underway
as evidenced by surge in 925-850mb temperatures in the models.
Surface ridge by late afternoon will be along the coast...encouraging
establishment of return flow and thus warming getting realized
even at the surface late today and especially Monday. Highs should
manage just a hair above climatology today...and much more so into
Monday as further warm air advection occurs. Upper 50s-middle 60s
today...middle 60s-low 70s Monday with coolest readings both days at
higher elevations Poconos-western Catskills-Tug Hill plateau. Lows
tonight 30s to near 40...mildest across the lake plain zones.

&&

Short term /Monday night/...
300 am update...
a cold front supported by moderately strong upper level
wave will be approaching the region during the overnight hours.
Moisture profiles on both the 00z European model (ecmwf) and GFS models suggest
showers will be moving through western New York and have a pretty
good chance at arriving in the western southern tier and Finger
Lakes region by sunrise Tuesday. This is very consistent with
previous forecast and we made only subtle changes to current
forecast.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
300 am update...
model consistency with previous forecast continues into this
period with both European model (ecmwf) and GFS indicating the upper wave moving
through the region on Tuesday and strengthening with time. Showers
become more likely for a several hour period of time on Tuesday...and
if all GOES as planned...should be passing into eastern New York and New
England by Tuesday night. An interesting shot of sub freezing air
aloft will maintain instability across central New York on a fresh
northwesterly flow Tuesday night and Wednesday. This suggests a
continuation of shower chances and cooler than average
temperatures for late April. Conditions moderate for later in the
week with high pressure building in through at least
Thursday...and probably much of Thursday night. Another front and
fast moving upper wave drift into the region for Friday and
Saturday...but the details are uncertain as models diverge on
placement and timing of this system. Each weather feature appears
to be rather weak with limited moisture...and it seems as though
rain amounts will struggle to reach a half inch for the whole 7
days.

&&

Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/...
06z update...
VFR all terminals. Some high thin clouds around or above 25 kft
above ground level...associated with a system well to our south...otherwise high
pressure in charge with light southeast or south winds generally
less than 10 kts.

Outlook...

Late Sun night through Monday night...mainly VFR.

Tue-Wed...restrictions as showery cold front passes Tuesday...then scattered
showers into Wednesday morning on back side of system.

Wednesday ngt-Thu...mainly VFR.

&&

Fire weather...
130 am update...
there will not be as much wind today compared to Saturday...well
below critical levels. However...along with warmer
temperatures...relative humidity will dip even lower...with most
locations reaching into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon.
That trend continues Monday...with further warming temperatures
and fairly low relative humidity yet light winds. However...a
wetting rain is on the way with a passing cold front Tuesday.

&&

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...mdp
near term...mdp
short term...jab
long term...jab
aviation...mdp
fire weather...