Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
626 am EST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
a series of low pressure systems will track across the region
through Wednesday bringing the area periods of rain. A brief
period of light freezing rain is possible early this morning in
the western Catskills and western Mohawk Valley. Cooler weather
is expected on Thursday along with mixed rain and snow showers.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
625 am update...will allow the freezing rain advection to expire at 7am as
mesonet sites in the advection area only show a few sites remaining
at 32 degrees and with dew points within a degree or two of surface
temperatures expect only a few pocket of freezing rain will remain after 7am and
this will only last for another hour.
mainly light rain continues to move across the
region early this morning as the initial shot of isentropic lift
along with a middle level short wave moves through the area. Will
continue with the Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 am for Delaware,
Otsego, Chenango, Madison and Oneida counties, as a few locations
still have temperatures around freezing. Any freezing rain will be light
and short lived as model soundings show a significant warm layer
just above the surface and dew points continue to rise which limits
the amount of evaporative cooling.
A moist southerly flow will continue over the area today with surface
low pressure in the middle Atlantic and another over the upper Great
Lakes. The highest probability of precipitation and greatest amount of rainfall will occur
over NE PA and southern tier with less across The Finger lakes
region. Maximum temperatures will range from the lower 40s in the east to
around 50 in The Finger lakes and central southern tier.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
tonight...upper level low in the western Great Lakes will slowly
move east as an associated surface low pressure pushes a surface occlusion
through the area between 06z-12z. Will continue to advertise Cat
probability of precipitation as this feature moves through with another round of rain.
Wednesday/Wednesday night...surface low pressure in the Tennessee Valley will
lift NE along this boundary and move through eastern PA and into
western New England, Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will spread
another area of rain across the area with the highest probability of precipitation over NE
PA, western Catskills and the local bgm area. Wednesday will continue to
be mild with maxes in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Total rainfall
from today through Wednesday night will generally be .50-.75 inches across
The Finger lakes and central southern tier to 1.0-1.50 inches
across NE PA and the western Catskills. No Hydro issues are
anticipated as the event is spread across 36-48 hours and main
Stem rivers are low.
Thursday/Thursday night...as surface low pressure moves into northern New
England and the Canadian Maritimes a cooler northwest flow will follow
with scattered rain/snow showers expected on Thursday in wrap
around moisture. This activity will be mainly over central New
York with likely probability of precipitation southeast of Lake Ontario due to some lake
enhancement. T85 only drops to -6c so significant lake effect
precipitation is not expected. Minor snow accums may occur early Thursday
morning and again Thursday evening as the activity diminishes.
Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
3 am update...
Another nice stretch of weather will be upon US in the extended.
Precipitation concerns at the start of the extended otherwise we are
looking at mainly dry weather. With a cool northwest flow of air
Friday, 850 temperatures of -6 to -7c should be just enough with lake
temperatures in the upper 40s for some scattered. Light lake effect showers
over cny. We are moist up through 5kft, but lake parameters are
not overly impressive. While some snow is possible early in the
day Friday, boundary layer temperatures warm by afternoon to keep
anything falling mainly in the form of rain.
Beyond any light lake effect Friday, high pressure builds in for
the weekend with dry and mild weather expected. 500 heights
approach 576 dm and in response 850 temperatures climb to +6c. This
should be enough for temperatures into the 50s, especially by Sunday
afternoon. The next shot of precipitation, in the form of rain,
doesn't look to be until the middle of next week.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
light rain will overspread the terminals early today, with
widespread MVFR ceilings and visibilities expected through the end of the taf
period. IFR ceilings are possible from around 12z into the early
afternoon at kbgm and kelm. Elsewhere a strong southeasterly
component of the wind should keep ceilings above IFR.
The other concern today will be for low level wind shear. From middle morning through
afternoon winds around 2,000 feet will increase from the
southwest up to around 40 kts. Low level wind shear will be most likely at the
southern terminals before subsiding early tonight.
Tuesday night-Wed...restrictions are likely, in lower ceilings and
Thursday...mostly VFR, but brief restrictions possible in rain or snow
showers...mainly for central New York.
New York...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 am EST this morning for nyz009-