Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
230 am EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
an upper level disturbance will move through our vicinity tonight
through Saturday...bringing spotty rain showers. As colder air
descends upon the region Saturday night into Sunday
morning...lingering rain showers will change to snow showers or
flurries for some parts of the area while diminishing.
Near term /through tonight/...
230 am EDT update...
it is pretty quite this morning across portions of central New
York and northeast Pennsylvania. Temperatures are in the upper 30s to low
40s and dew points are in the 30s across much of the area. Temperatures
are very slowly decreasing this morning. Expect temperatures to fall just
a few more degrees this morning. Skies are mostly cloudy to
overcast and expect skies to remain this way through the next 24
There are some light rain showers over the far western portions of
the County Warning Area and some light rain/drizzle over the far southeast portions of
the County Warning Area this morning. These are orthographic showers and are
generated this morning due to lots of lingering low level moisture
and cyclonic flow aloft. The best chance for rain showers will
remain over the areas mentioned above. Believe coverage may
increase this afternoon and become more scattered due to an
increase in instability from daytime heating.
The potent upper level trough will finally start to track east this
afternoon. This will bring cooler and drier air over the County Warning Area and
the chance for showers will finally start to slowly diminish. The
cooler air will result in the transition from rain to snow showers
late this evening. As the upper level low shifts east this may produce
an environment conducive for Finger Lake induced snow showers.
Finger Lake showers may start after 00z tonight.
Temperatures this afternoon will stay chilly as cold air will start to
move into the region and mostly cloudy skies will prevail. Due to
strong cold air advection Sat afternoon/evening temperatures late early Monday morning
will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
350 PM update...
due northerly flow will very gradually back northwesterly Saturday
night into Sunday...while being pretty brisk due to the tight
pressure gradient between the deep Nova Scotia-bound low...and the
Ohio Valley high. This will mean a very limited fetch for Great
Lakes moisture...despite cold enough 850mb temperatures for a lake
response /well below zero celsius/. That along with very dry air
mass advecting into the region...dewpoints crashing through the
20s Sunday...will mean only a small amount of lake effect snow showers
at best. Before that...still some synoptic moisture which with
cold air advection will allow lingering rain showers to change to
snow showers or flurries while diminishing. Snow accumulations
where they occur will be meager and mainly limited to higher
terrain areas in The Finger lakes region as well as the western
Cyclonic pressure gradient Sunday will push gusts into 25-35 miles per hour
range...which along with temperatures only in upper 30s to low
40s will feel quite cold. Dryness of air mass will also allow
clouds to scatter out fairly quickly Sunday afternoon.
High pressure ridge then builds in Sunday night to Monday for a
period of dry weather. Lows in the 20s to near 30 Sunday night...but
some moderation in temperatures Monday /upper 40s-low 50s/ due to
warm air advection.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
a ridge of high pressure building out of the southeastern U.S.
Will provide milder temperatures and fair weather at the start of
the long term period.
A cold front swinging out of Ontario and the
Great Lakes region will bring a chance of showers for Tuesday and
After the mild start, temperatures will average slightly below
normal for the remainder of the extended forecast period.
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
complex upper and surface low system moving through the area this morning.
Cnrntly and through the night...the system is generating a northeasterly flow
and keeping any le precipitation well west of the area. Weak lift
associated with the upper low itself may generate some light ocon and
possible MVFR cogs and visibilities for a time this morning...into around midday
on Sat. Eventually...more northerly flow and colder air will generate
some Ontario and Finger Lake snow showers late in the period which may
generate MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
Sat night...occasional restrictions are possible in rain/snow showers.