Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
347 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014
high pressure will reside over the area tonight and Wednesday.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, low pressure along the
coast will bring a period of rain to northeast Pennsylvania and
the southern Catskills. High pressure will once again build in
over the area Thursday night with moderating temperatures expected
through next weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
4 PM update...surface high pressure will reside over the region tonight,
providing light winds and mainly clear skies. This will result in
excellent radiational cooling conditions which will lead to dense
valley fog across the twin tiers late tonight through middle morning
Wednesday. Overnight low will range in the 40s.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
Wednesday...surface high pressure will move off the Maine coast giving
the area a southeast flow with seasonal temperatures. High clouds will
gradually increase and thicken over the southern portion of the County Warning Area
during the afternoon. Maximum temperatures will range in the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Wednesday night/Thursday...upper level wave in the middle Atlantic
region is expected to lift northeast into southern New England
during this period. The resulting surface reflection will track from
coastal Virginia to well off the southern New England coast by Thursday
afternoon. Model trends continue to lift this feature farther
north with each run. System has significant moisture due to its
tropical origin but surface high pressure to the north will make for a
very tight precipitation gradient. Increased probability of precipitation into the likely
category late Wednesday night through midday Thursday for much of
NE PA and the southern Catskills. For the southern tier will
continue to keep probability of precipitation dry or in the slight chance range. This feature
will be pulling east during the afternoon with conditions expected
to improve. Over the northern/western County Warning Area partly sunny skies are expected.
Maximum temperatures will range in the lower 60s in the area likely to
receive rainfall to lower 70s in the central southern tier and
northern County Warning Area.
Thursday night/Friday...surface high pressure will reestablish itself as
the upper level ridge continues to build with 500 mb heights approaching
590 dm. Maximum temperatures on Friday will range in the lower to middle 70s.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
quiet and warm this period. A large high pressure center will extend
from the Atlantic through the Ohio Valley, while a strong ul ridge
remains fixed over the eastern half of the forecast area. Maximum temperatures
will be in the 70s through Monday.
There does not appear to be any risk of precipitation. The main
tangible weather to deal with will be morning fog.
Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions, light winds, and mostly clear skies will hold
through this evening. Overnight fog is expected again at kelm.
MVFR and tempo IFR conditions are forecast to develop at 7z.
Prevailing IFR conditions are forecast starting at 9z and running
VFR conditions are forecast early tomorrow afternoon with
increasing cirrus expected late.
Wednesday night through Sat...VFR except possible restrictions related to
early morning valley fog primarily kelm.