Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
227 am EDT Thursday Jul 2 2015
high pressure will build south across the Great Lakes and New York
state today and cover New York and northern Pennsylvania tonight.
This high will bring fair and mainly dry and seasonable weather
to the region for early July through Friday. The next chance for
precipitation will come on Saturday as a cold front drops south
into the region.
Near term /through Friday/...
radars show a few sprinkles in The Highlands of central New York
as a moist low-level nearly flow continues upsloping. Dry advection
picks up this morning across c New York which should allow this acvty to
wane. All models indicate a fairly shallow and moist layer at 925
mb that persists until 15z on the nam12...rap...hrrr...wrf_nmm and
wrf_arw. This moisture was seen well in the 925 mb relative humidity fields on
all these mesoscale models. All models dissipate this moisture
after 15z as the boundary layer grows with the day/S heating.
Current observations shows mainly middle and hi clouds working across
northern PA and c New York with only a few locations at MVFR as the models
would suggest given the extent of the 925 mb moisture. As the nearly
flow continues overnight with nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer
and upsloping, these factors should combine to condense out a
lower stratocumulus layer for most of c New York and NE PA. Another
complicating factor is how much fog forms in the valleys before
the stratocumulus forms. There is also high clouds around ahead of
an upper level wave moving through the lower lakes to complicate this
further. For now have broken clouds in grids with patchy valley fog
given the uncertainities.
For later today with insolation and drier air aloft mixing down
into the boundary layer I see plenty of cumulus forming so have plus
skies evolving from a cloudy or mostly cloudy start. Cumulus rule
suggests broken cumulus many areas especially farther S where dewpoints are higher.
For tonight...a moisture gradient sets up across northern PA as per the
GFS...NAM and the previous run of the Euro and also on the latest
rgem. All the models linger moisture at 850 mb in northern PA as a
result with drier air farther north. So have pc skies for northestern PA to
clear in c New York for tonight.
For Friday...looks like scattered-broken cumulus forms again as cumulus rule
still shows higher surface dewpoints than 850 mb temperatures with the margin
greatest in NE PA. For now have pc skies to reflect.
Otherwise...dry weather again on Friday as well after we finished
the month of June in bgm where we came close to 10 inches of
Short term /Friday through Friday night/...
dry mild weather will prevail across the area Thursday night
through Friday as high pressure tracks slowly across the northeast
and middle-Atlantic region. Thursday night will be unseasonably cool
wtih many normally cooler locations dipping into the upper 40s...
wtih lower 50s elsewhere. At this time only some very patchy River
Valley fog is expected as the airmass looks a bit too dry for
widespread fog. Friday will feature some very pleasant Summer
weather with sunshine... low humidity and temperatures in the middle
70s to lower 80s.
Next chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday July 4th as
the next in a series of upper waves drops southeast into the
persistent upper level trough over the northeast U.S. This wave
will be accompanied by a weak surface cold front and have gone
with 30 to 40 probability of precipitation for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the
afternoon. At this point these showers and storms look to be
scattered and a Holiday washout is certainly not expected for most
of the area.
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
European model (ecmwf) and GFS are in excellent agreement Sunday through early next
week showing high pressure in control of the weather. The result
will be mainly dry weather with near normal temperaures... highs
mainly in the lower to middle 80s and lows from the middle 50s to lower
60s. Next cold appears to be approaching the area later Tuesday or
Wednesday associated with the next chance of showers and
Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
models are showing plenty of low-level moisture advecting
southward into the hills of c New York and northern PA. This is a classic
set-up for stratocumulus so have an MVFR layer developing between
6 and 8z all tafs except ksyr and kavp where the layer should remain
VFR. Then after 13z-15z have a scattered-broken VFR cumulus layer which
will diminish toward sunset. Some cirrus will affect kavp and
kbgm/kelm late in the taf period.
Winds today will be west to northwest under 10 knots.
Thursday night through Friday...mainly VFR.
Sat...chance of scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain and associated restrictions.
Sun through Monday...mainly VFR.