Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
126 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
high pressure will sit over the region for the next couple of days
bringing dry weather and above normal temperatures. The next
best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday
afternoon when a backdoor front moves south over the area.
Near term /through tonight/...
quiet weather expected today as large area of high pressure sits
aloft accompanied with high pressure at the surface. This pattern
will allow dense fog to develop this morning over the region. We
have transitioned over to the time of the year where fog does not
burn off as quickly... thus expect fog to last through 14z. Once
fog lifts we will see mostly sunny skies with temperatures rising into
the middle to upper 80s.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
high pressure will continue to produce quiet weather Wednesday. A weak
wave embedded within the ridge aloft will slide over New York/PA Wednesday
afternoon creating enough forcing for cloud coverage over PA to
increase. Believe if any showers develop with this wave... should
stay south of the County Warning Area. Thursday the ridge aloft starts to retrograde
and a weak backdoor front will slide south over New York. This may
created enough of a surface boundary to create a thunderstorm or two
as it slides south. Chances for precipitation at this time are low.
Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be above the seasonal norm.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
315 am update: only made very minor adjustments to pop grids for
Friday as I shaved back northern extent of slight chance probability of precipitation
slightly over the twin tiers. Otherwise maintained previous
forecast. See previous discussion below for further details.
Monday afternoon update: long wave ridge remains near the Great
Lakes and Central Plains Thursday into Saturday. This will put our
area in northwest flow aloft which will leave US vulnerable for the chance
of a weak back- door cold front passage with isolated showers or
thunderstorms...with the best opportunity (although not great) on
Thursday. The stacked ridge then re- establishes itself late in
the week and next weekend. Models have backed off on much of a
chance of precipitation for Sunday...but seem to be targeting
another weak cold frontal passage for next Tuesday...and we could
see some influence working into the north part of our area by
Temperatures through the period at or above normal.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions will be prevalent through the period with
occasional ceilings through 02/00z across the entire region. Light
winds through the aftn/evening. Clearing through the evening into
the overnight and light to calm winds will allow for valley fog
and some patchy fog elsewhere...will likely see IFR visibilities at kelm
and kbgm around 09-13z...MVFR possible at other sites. Fog will
lift after 14-15z...with some diurnal cumulus and light winds.
Wednesday through saturday: no significant weather expected.
Generally VFR, with local restrictions possible due to valley fog
each morning, with the most likely location kelm. Possible daytime
showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.