Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
451 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014
a cold front will move across the area this evening accompanied by
a round of showers and thunderstorms...some of which could be
strong to severe with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Dry
warm weather will follow behind the front for Wednesday into
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
445 PM update...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for entire County Warning Area until 10 PM...02z.
Severe thunderstorm warnings being issued by buf and ctp. No
reports yet. Broken line on northwest edge of County Warning Area should move through
middle of County Warning Area around 00z and out near 2z. Products updated and
damaging winds added to grids.
3 PM update...
Warm humid airmass over the County Warning Area ahead of a cold front in southeast
Ontario. Lines of showers and thunderstorms ahead the front from
NE New York to western New York and western PA. Convection brushing the far north now
but bulk of it will come in 5 to 8 PM. Convection exits southeast towards
midnight. The entire County Warning Area will have at least one round of showers
and thunderstorms. By late evening diurnal heating dies with weaker
winds in the southeast so thunderstorms will be dying. In the northwest half best chance
of severe due mostly to damaging winds. Cape currently over 1k
with surface temperatures in 80s with dewpoints pooling a70. Bulk 6km shear will
get to 50 knots but ll shear weak with light winds and little
turning. Best forcing across New York.
Late tonight high pressure already moving east across PA while
drier and cooler air moves in from the northwest at low levels. With the
light ll winds and the wet ground fog should be common in at least
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
3 PM update...
High pressure at the surface will build into the area by evening
and remain through Thursday. Aloft the flow will be zonal. Cooler
air on Thursday will quickly moderate on the back side of the
high. Upper level heights will rise while low levels increase out
of the southwest. Above normal temperatures Thursday around 80 rise into the
m80s Thursday and Friday. A strong cold front gets into southeast Ontario late
Friday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Friday will be warm and humid as a west-southwest flow over the top of the ridge
brings warm air and moisture into the region. Another strong cold
fnt aprchs for Sat bringing a good chance for showers and trws.
Hipres builds back in with cooler and drier air through the end of the
period. Some hint from the models that the fnt could stall out over
the middle Atlantic but it looks for now like the fnt will stay well
south of the forecast area. Temperatures look to be above normal for the
period...xcpt for Monday when they will be near normal.
Aviation /21z Tuesday through Sunday/...
cold fnt aprchg the area this afternoon triggering conv over SW
Ontario. Models in rsnbl agreement for the timing of the fnt and
best chance of trws with restrictions between 21z ond 02z over the
area. Expect gradual clearing bhd the fnt with very dry air moving in.
Xcptn will be at Elm once again as the atmos decpls and wet ground
helps develop dense fog and vlifr for several hours before dawn. VFR
returns to Elm and continues elswhere through the end of the taf period.
Wednesday ngt-Fri...VFR...except possible early morning fog...mainly kelm.
Sat...restrictions possible in shra/tsra.