Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
956 am EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
low pressure off the New England coast will continue to affect
central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. Showers will be most
widespread east of Interstate 81 today and tonight with scattered
showers ending across these areas on Friday. High pressure will
build in briefly Friday night. Another frontal system will bring a
chance for showers late Saturday and Sunday across central New
York. Fair weather and warmer temperatures are forecast for next
Monday and Tuesday.
Near term /through tonight/...
955 am update...
same old song and dance as yesterday as coastal storm continues to
spin south of Cape Cod this morning. Light rain has made it into
areas east of the I-81 corridor. Expect that this will continue off
and on through this evening before upper low gets The Boot. Expecting a tight
gradient in precipitation across central and western sections of County Warning Area today as 1025mb surface
hipres is settled across the corn belt and will slowly build east this
afternoon. Have confined majority of probability of precipitation to east of I-81 though cannot rule
out an isolated shower across The Finger lakes this afternoon and have adjusted
No other changes needed at this time with maxes expected to be stuck
in the 40s in rain area. Latest GFS lamp guidance is suggesting
western zones not even appchg 50 for highs and plan to wait another
couple of hours before lowering maxes as this seems a little far-
fetched to ME.
Previous discussions below...
540 am update...minor tweeks to near term grids with gist of forecast
unchanged. Previous below...
Upper low off the Jersey Shore will continue to affect the forecast
area today and tonight. System will spin bands of rain into eastern zones
today...while western zones (steuben/yates) may flirt with plus skies this
afternoon. In any event...Cat probability of precipitation eastern zones today...dropping off to low
chance probability of precipitation across the west where some -shra could migrate westward into
this area this afternoon. Probability of precipitation slowly decreases tonight from west to east as low
slowly moves away. Nearly winds gusting to 25 kts today.
Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
there could some lingering --shra across the tug and western Catskills
very Erly Friday..otrw improving conditions with plus skies dvlpng.
Brief ridging on Friday night but next wave moves in for Sat. Models
suggest a period of clouds in the morning asscd with warm air advection then plus skies
before more clouds arrive. Best chances for -shra across northern zones
later in the afternoon with scattered -shra on Sat night across central New York as moist
and cooler northwest flow develops Post frontal passage.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
340 PM update...
forecast adjusted slightly to account for latest wpc guidance.
Unlike the upper low currently impacting the region...the one
passing this weekend will be moving along quickly...from James
Bay Saturday night to northern Maine already by Sunday evening and
zipping away from there. There will be some showers Sunday north
of the twin tiers...but west-northwest winds and brief period of cold air
advection may also allow for lake enhancement north of the
thruway. 850mb temperatures are projected to reach near or even
slightly below zero celsius...which should be enough for some lake
response given water temperatures still in lower teens celsius.
One other adjustment was to delay the next chance of rain after
the weekend to Wednesday based on latest guidance and models. So
now both Monday and Tuesday look dry...with moderating
closely followed wpc guidance.
Looks like fall has returned to New York and PA. An unsettled weather
pattern is expected across the northeast at the start of the
forecast period as another upper level low is expected to swing
through the region. Rain showers are possible through the weekend
from this system. High pressure will then start to briefly build
over the area on Monday... but quickly move out from the County Warning Area on
Tuesday. Another system will then start to impact the region
Tuesday afternoon/evening bringing another shot of showers across
Sunday will feel like fall as temperatures will rise into the upper 50s
to low 60s across the area. Monday morning will be fairly chilly with
temperatures falling into the middle to upper 30s. Warm air advection will start to occur
over the region Monday evening... which will result in temperatures
remaining in the 40s in the mornings and highs in the 60s Tuesday and
Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/...
a large low pressure system will continue to slowly move towards
coastal New England...and the system is big enough to the point
that our terminals will continue to be impacted by the north to
northwest winds and clouds wrapping around it...scattered -shra as well
except for kith-kelm. Ceilings at fuel alt MVFR kavp-kith-kbgm
gradually lifting to higher end MVFR...other terminals mainly
higher end MVFR. Kavp-kbgm probably dipping back to fuel alt MVFR
this evening into tonight...others generally scattering out but
some uncertainty on this. Persistent fuel alt MVFR for kavp. Winds
north-northwest to northwest 8-14 kts...gusting 18-22 kts...then backing and
Friday...improving conditions as system pulls away and drier air moves
in...generally MVFR to VFR.
Sat...VFR except potential exists for -shra and MVFR across
Sunday through Monday...mainly VFR.