Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
324 am EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014
high pressure will build into central New York and northeast
Pennsylvania today leading to near normal temperatures. There is a
chance for increasing clouds and perhaps some light rain across
the Poconos Thursday morning as a low pressure system rides north
along the East Coast. High pressure will once again build in over
the area Thursday night with moderating temperatures expected through
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
130 am update...
1025mb surface high is beginning to build over County Warning Area as of 05z. However
troffing remains at upper levels with batch of low clouds moving south through
Canada at this time. Remnant low clouds continue to linger over some
parts of Susquehanna regions/Mohawk Valley. Expect that as surface ridge
continues to build in from the west, clouds will shift off to the
northeast of County Warning Area lvg northern counties pcldy this morning and mostly clear elsewhere.
Temperatures across western river valleys have dropped down to cross-over temperatures and
watching for signs of fog development. However am not too wild about the
Prospect as winds just above the surface are out of the north from 15-20kts.
This will likely keep atmosphere too mixed this morning with patchy fog
expected to develop but fall well short of locally dense. Thus see no
reason to add into grids at this time but will continue to monitor.
With winds above the surface at 20kts not expecting much in the way of
temperature drop and with dewpoints remaining in the upper 30s this will likely preclude
the development of frost this morning.
As for weather expected tda, prtly-mostly sunny expected County Warning Area-wide with
high pressure in control. Mixing looks as though it will occur up to
about 875mb. This will result in maximum temperatures in the M/u 60s which will be
5-10 degrees above yesterday values.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
320 am update...
high pressure continues across the area into mid-week. Best night
for fog looks to be tonight with light winds/clear skies. River Valley fog
forecast to develop after 09z as dewpoint depressions narrow to 0 by this time.
Wrinkle develops in ongoing dry forecast Wednesday night. 500 mb low that developed this
evening down across the deep south expected to gradually ride north toward
forecast area drg the day Wednesday. This is all in response to movement of 500 mb low
currently moving across the Front Range. As this low heads east it will
serve as the kicker for closed 500 mb low over southeastern U.S. Thus have
increased cloud cover over southeastern zones late Wednesday night.
Unfortunately that also means will have to introduce probability of precipitation to southeastern zones
after 06z Thursday with GFS/ec/CMC showing precipitation over Poconos. NAM is
confining precipitation down across southern/eastern PA with very little rain over
Poconos. With such strong surface high remaining locked in across northestern U.S. Will
cap probability of precipitation at 20% due to dry air needed to overcome to produce light
As surface low mvs across the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia on Thursday and out to sea Thursday night
not entirely convinced that southeastern zones will see much of anything through
the day Thursday. Will continue with slight chance rain through 18z Thursday across
the Poconos but very little measurable rainfall expected at this time.
The one thing this system will do is lower maximum temperatures across southeastern zones and
do not expect they will get much out of the 60s drg the day on
Thursday thus have lowered maxes by 3-5 degrees. High pressure will once
again build in from the west Thursday night to resume the stretch of dry
weather after a brief interruption.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
300 am EDT update...
minor adjustments were made to previous forecast. Closely followed
wpc guidance for updates.
large anticyclone covers the northeast U.S. From Thursday night
through Saturday night. With plenty of sunshine...temperatures
will climb to above seasonal normals by the end of the week. The
Euro and GFS both show an upper level wave running into the upper
Air Ridge by Sunday but the air mass will be very dry with the surface
anticyclone off shore. Thus the entire extended period should be
Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/...
high pressure is starting to build over the region resulting in
quiet weather for the next 24 hours. With the winds aloft still
remaining from the northwest... some MVFR ceilings may develop late this
morning at krme... ksyr and kith. Believe remaining sites should
see VFR through the taf period expect for kelm. Kelm may see some
fog develop tonight. Will monitor the situation closely as winds
right off the surface are around 20 knots. This may inhibit dense fog
development... thus decided to mention tempo at this time and may amend
out of taf for the 09z amendments.
Tuesday afternoon... expect another deck to develop across the region
around 4k feet. Winds will remain under 12 knots as the surface ridge builds
further into the region. Winds will become light and variable near
sunset Tuesday evening and mostly clear skies will prevail Tuesday
Wednesday night through Sat...VFR except possible restrictions related to
early morning valley fog primarily kelm.