Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
559 PM EST Wednesday Nov 26 2014
snow will continue into this evening...before winding down late
tonight...as a strengthening storm system tracks farther off the
East Coast. A series of upper-level disturbances will bring
occasional light snow showers and flurries Friday and
Saturday...with temperatures staying on the chilly side.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
4 PM update... based on persistence of narrow csi band...and the
expectation of another 2-3 hours of +sn underneath it...we've added
Bradford PA and Tioga New York to the warning area (storm totals of
3 PM update... for the most part...ongoing winter storm is
behaving itself...as a deepening surface cyclone is moving northeastward
off the middle-Atlantic coast.
Of primary concern late this afternoon into the evening hours is the track
of the middle-level low (700 mb)...and an associated band of fgen
forcing...from central/northestern PA into portions of ny's southern tier...then
northeastward from there. Based on the latest observational data...Storm Prediction Center
meso-analyses...and the latest hi-res model output...the main band
of +sn may well impact an axis from near Williamsport...to
Towanda...to Binghamton...to Norwich and Cooperstown through at
least 21-23z...with a general eastward shift thereafter. Across our southeastern
zones...proximity of a middle-level dry slot may cause snow to ocnlly
decrease...but it's not likely to shut down altogether until later
this evening...so additional accums are still anticipated even in
these areas. All in all...currently advertised snowfall totals
still look reasonable...with a general 6-12" in the warning
area over most of northestern PA...the Catskills...and sections of the susq region...and
roughly 3-6" in the advisory region...from kelm-kith-ksyr.
Based on the latest hrrr data...which has performed well today...the
back edge of the steadier snow pulls out from west to east after 01-03z.
Although we could see some weak multi-bands towards daybreak in a
310-330 flow...the overall flow looks weak...and moisture depths
will be on the decline...so accums should be very minor.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Saturday/...
for Thanksgiving day and Thursday night...a northwest flow pattern will
prevail...with low-level cold air advection...and lingering blyr moisture. For the
most part...this will produce -shsn and flurries...and small accums.
However...a brief period of enhancement could occur later Thursday night into
Friday morning...when a well defined northern stream shortwave crosses NY/PA. Some
synoptic support from the shortwave and lake enhancement could produce
locally 1-3" in an axis from southern Cayuga-Onondaga...to southern
Oneida/Madison/nrn Chenango/northern Otsego.
For the rest of the day Friday into Friday night...mainly just scattered
-shsn/flurries are again anticipated...with backing low-level flow...as
some warm advection begins.
Another shortwave passage...along with the approach of the surface-850 mb
warm front from the SW...could lead to addtnl -shsn and some light
accums as we head into early Sat...especially for our northern zones.
Daily highs will generally be in the 30s...with lows in the upper
teens and 20s.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
230 PM EST update...
followed closely with wpc guidance and made minor changes to the
The main theme of the forecast continues with zonal flow still
being expected across much of the northeast through the forecast
By Sat night a warm front will have just passed to the north of
the County Warning Area and a cold front will be starting to approach the region
from the west. This cold front will bring cooler air to the region
along with a chance for rain/and or snow showers to New York and
Pennsylvania. A surface ridge will then start to build over the area
from the west Monday afternoon... thus bringing dry and quiet
weather back to the area through middle week. This ridge will also allow
temperatures over the region to fall below the seasonal norm. The
coldest day in the extended forecast will be when the ridge is expected
to be centered over the County Warning Area. This will occur on Tuesday. High
temperatures are expected to rise into the low to middle 30s.
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
an intense band of snow extending from northeastern New York toward the
avp terminal will cause IFR conditions for a few more hours. The
snow will taper off between 2z and 5z, with most terminals popping
back up to between 2sm and 5sm visibility once the band moves out
A general light snowfall will persist into early Thursday with
light winds and mainly mfvr restrictions.
Thursday ngt/Fri/Sat...possible restrictions from scattered -shsn...especially
Sun...restrictions possible from -shra.
Monday...restrictions possible from -shra/shsn.
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 6 am EST Thursday for paz038>040-
New York...Winter Storm Warning until 6 am EST Thursday for nyz045-046-
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am EST Thursday for nyz009-017-