Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
759 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
a large area of high pressure will be our main controlling feature
for the rest of the work week, bringing rain-free weather and
slowly warming temperatures. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
are expected late Saturday afternoon into the middle of next week.
&&
Near term /through Thursday/...
7 PM update...
forecast in great shape...no major changes needed with the
current update. Dewpoints slowly creeping up this evening lending
some concern that radiational fog will be possible after 06z
across sheltered valley locations. As a result...have elected to
add a patchy fog mention for prone locations. Everything else
well on track this evening with no additional changes needed.
230 PM update...
high and dry drg the near term period with 1020mb hipres right ovrhd.
Clear skies expected tonight with weak boundary layer winds. MOS guidance
dips overnight lows into the l/M-40s though upper 30s at kelm. Have blended
mav/met numbers with expected lows of 39-40f at Elmira, similar to
last night. Potential exists for patchy fog tonight with lighter
winds, however cross-over temperatures expected to be around 38f or 39f, thus
does not appear to be favorable for River Valley fog and have not added
into grids at this time.
For Thursday, hipres will build off of the East Coast with winds
turning southwesterly. 800 mb temperatures warm to around 10c drg the day yielding highs
in the M/u 70s. Inverted trough prognosticated to develop drg the afternoon and swing
through central PA by evening. With airmass being so dry (i.E. Precipitable water values
around 1 inch) not expecting much in the way of showers tomorrow, thus
have kept probability of precipitation around 10% across the far southwestern zones.
&&
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/...
230 PM update...
quiet weather continues through Friday with only a slight increases in cloud cover
expected. Friday morning mins expected to remain around 50f then rising to near
80 on Friday afternoon. Ridge expected to hold through Sat aftn, then slowly
begin to break down as shortwave rounds the ul ridge. Expect chance
rain showers/thunderstorms drg the afternoon hours per ECMWF, whereas GFS builds 588+
ridge over the weekend.
&&
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
230 PM update...
weak anticyclonic flow will set up over the region as a strong upper
level ridge slides east and settles over the southeastern Continental U.S. This
weekend. Large differences exist between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) in the
extended. Went with the wpc/European model (ecmwf) output... as this is a typical
pattern for showers and thunderstorms across the County Warning Area. Kept slight to
change for probability of precipitation as embedded shortwaves are expected move up and
around the outer edge of the ridge. The GFS keeps the extended dry
and very warm with 850 mb temperatures at 18 degrees c. This could allow
temperatures to rise into the upper 80s for much of the area. As this ridge
shifts east middle next week... it appears there will be a chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week.
&&
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
with the exception of some morning valley fog across the southern
tier of NY, VFR conditions will prevail. Clear skies are expected
overnight with just a few cumulus on Thursday around 5k feet.
At kelm, included prevailing MVFR fog beginning at 07z with
occasional visibility/ceiling below alt min between 08z-12z. Confidence is
fairly high that dense valley fog will develop here as boundary
layer are very light and overnight lows will drop near the
crossover temperature.
At kith, expect less fog than last night due to light easterly
flow, just mentioned possible MVFR fog between 08z-12z.
Light and variable winds overnight becoming west/southeast around 5 knots by
middle morning Thursday.
Outlook...
Thursday night through Sunday...primarily VFR, but brief restrictions are
possible Saturday through Monday in isolated shra/tsra.
&&
Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...pvn
near term...cmg/pvn
short term...pvn
long term...kah
aviation...rrm
