Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1129 am EST Monday Feb 8 2016
a storm system will drop out of the Great Lakes tonight and spread
snow showers across New York and PA. Lake effect snow is likely to
develop late Wednesday, as much colder air pours into the
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
1125 am update...adjusted probability of precipitation down for this afternoon into early
this evening as precipitation looks slower to move in based on latest
trends/guidance. Also made minor adjustments to afternoon T/dew point and
sky cover grids.
220 am update...
a fair amount of sun is forecast today before clouds increase in
the afternoon. With the lower atmosphere still abnormally warm, we
should be able to make another run at 40 degrees in many locales.
Precipitation will hold off until after sunset.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
225 am update...
As the Great Lakes cyclone drops into western New York and PA, light snow
showers will spread across the region. We continue to think the
snow will be instability-based, as the ul trough sets up shop over
New York and PA and pours cooler air into the middle and upper atmosphere.
A widespread 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected between Monday
night and late Wednesday.
Colder 925-850mb air pours across the lakes Wednesday night,
setting the stage for an elongated period of lake effect snowfall.
At this very preliminary point, it appears the flow favors a lake
band over northern Oneida for the first half of Wednesday night,
then shifts the band toward Onondaga/Madison in the second half.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
330 am update...
current extended forecast in good shape just made minor
adjustments based on latest superblend guidance. Best chance for
significant lake effect snow still looks like Thursday into
Thursday night. Based on latest model guidance a well aligned 300
flow will occur during this period with t85 around -20c. This
could mean significant lake effects snows for parts of Onondaga,
Madison and Oneida counties. This weekend still looks very cold
with possibly the coldest airmass of the winter season with t85
down around -25c.
forecast models continue to be in good agreement
on a much colder pattern setting up for the long term as strong
upper level trough and associated 500 mb low moves southeast from Ontario
through Quebec into New England. Main weather hazard will be lake
effect snow due to west/northwest flow of very cold air over warmer lakes.
Initialized forecast with superblend but beefed up probability of precipitation due to
expected lake effect.
To start the period, colder air will be advecting in behind
departing surface low with snow showers and flurries occurring across
the area Wednesday night...enhanced by the lakes. At this Point,
Lake effect likely won't be too organized and strong due to
significant directional wind shear. However winds become better
aligned Thursday for potentially significant lake effect to occur
across parts of Onondaga/Madison/Oneida counties with remainder of
central New York also seeing some lake effect flurries/snow showers
accompanied by strong northwest winds and cold temperatures with highs only in
the 20 to 25 range.
The cold continues Friday with lake effect continuing and also
being enhanced by a disturbance dropping south through the area.
Behind this disturbance the coldest air of the season looks to be
moving in with indications being for highs next weekend only in
the teens along with subzero lows possible for some areas. Expect
some lake effect into Saturday over northern counties with the
latter part of next weekend looking to become mainly dry as high
pressure moves in.
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
vertically stacked system over the upper Great Lakes will gradually
impact the region during the next couple of days. For today, middle
level clouds will gradually thicken and lower. By 00z ceilings will
lower to around 4k feet with widespread MVFR conditions at all
terminals beginning around 06z due to snow showers and ceilings.
East/southeast winds through the period at 5-8 knots.
Tuesday through Friday...periodic snow showers and associated restrictions.