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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
647 am EDT Sat Aug 23 2014

Synopsis...
another round of rain showers are possible today. Surface high
pressure will start to move into the region this afternoon. This
will cause showers to end and beautiful weather to return. Dry and
warm weather is expected through the middle of next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
630 am EDT update...
showers have increased in coverage this morning across the County Warning Area.
Expect this trend to continue and expect the nature of the showers
today to be scattered. The rain showers today will be very slow
moving as the 850-300mb mean flow is only 20 knots... thus expect
showers to be moving towards the southeast on average of around 10
miles per hour. Precipitable water values this morning are around 1.3 inches. This may be
enough moisture to produce brief heavy rainfall. At this time do not see
flooding as being an issue today. The atmosphere is expected to
slowly dry out as the day progresses. For more information please
read previous forecast written below.

Previous forecast...
250 am EDT update...
overall the area is pretty quiet this morning. We have a few
light rain showers this morning but do not have any concerns as
these showers are just a light steady rain. A low stratus deck
have developed over the region and this deck is expected to lift
by middle morning. Patchy fog will be possible through the early
hours of the day. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail through much of
the day.

The weather pattern is finally starting to change as the upper level
trough is gone and the robust upper level ridge is starting to shift
east towards the northeast. However... this does not mean the
chance for showers have left yet. One last shortwave will slide
south around the outer edge of the upper ridge over the region
today which may generate another round of showers today.

Surface high pressure will continue to build southward out of Quebec
today. This high pressure building into the County Warning Area will eventually
put a cessation to the chance of showers. Expect the chance for
showers today to be over by the late evening hours.

Due to mostly cloudy skies today temperatures should stay on the
cooler side remaining in the 70s across central New York and northeast
PA. Skies are expected to clear out Saturday night thus valley fog
will most likely develop. In localized areas visbys may become
quite low during as strong radiational cooling is expected.

&&

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
250 am EDT update...
on Sunday the upper level ridge finally shifts far enough
east to prevent shortwaves from sliding south into our region.
This will result in quiet weather for the first time in a while.
The upper level ridge will sit over the area through Monday night.
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail through this time
period. Due to the previous mentions sky conditions...
temperatures will be able to rise and feel more like Summer. Temperatures
are expected to return to the upper 70s to low 80s. Each night
valley fog will be possible over the area. Low temperatures during
the nights will range in the low to middle 50s.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
3 am update...
little change. Followed latest wpc guidance. High pressure over
area on Tuesday to Tuesday night. After that models do not agree.
A cold front GOES through Wednesday but might be dry. Chance probability of precipitation Thursday
and Friday...and maybe Sat. Other complication will be a tropical
system moving up the southeast coast which could cause the front
to stall.

330 PM update...
period begins with strong upper level ridge over the region. The
main question of the long term period is how long it takes to beat
it back down. European model (ecmwf) is a little quicker by sending a dry weakening
front Tuesday night followed transition to more of a zonal flow
and a wetter front Thursday. GFS meanwhile maintains the
ridge without an initial dry front...yet also sends a wet cold
front through Thursday...and stronger than the version in European model (ecmwf).
Have mainly gone with wpc guidance...with dry warm period Monday
night to Wednesday...then 30-40 percent chance probability of precipitation including possible
thunder by next Thursday with frontal passage. Being nearly a week
out...did not want to higher than that until model details can be
firmed up better.

&&

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
7 am update...

Mainly MVFR ceilings until around 18z. At kelm ceiling at 1k feet now so it
may drop to IFR up to 14z. At avp rain moving in which has dropped
visibilities to IFR. With the slow east movement IFR visibilities will be
possible until 14z. Chance of showers elsewhere again but not enough
certainty at any one site to put an exact time. Best chances will
be kavp until midday.

Late tonight some clearing and light winds will cause fog to form.
Mostly MVFR visibility fog but IFR valley fog at kelm.

East to southeast winds at 5 kts or less.



Outlook...

Sun through Wednesday...VFR except restrictions likely in early morning
valley fog mainly at kelm.

&&

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...kah
near term...kah
short term...kah
long term...mdp/tac
aviation...tac

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