Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
247 PM EDT Monday Oct 20 2014
Low pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east and be off the
New England coast early Thursday. This will keep clouds and
occasional rain in the area for much of the weeks. With the clouds
and rain...daytime temperatures will be below normal.
Near term /through tonight/...
Surface low and the associated moisture will be slow to move in overnight as
the upper low closes off over the Central Lakes. During this slow
transition to a coastal system...models weaken the precipitation as and keep
much of what falls west of the forecast area. This makes sense as some
slight ridging and dry air builds ahead of the deepening low.
So...have kept chance probability of precipitation overnight...lower in the east as much of the
precipitation streams to our west in the developing southwesterly flow. Light precipitation and
drizzle over the area at times this afternoon and evening continues to be possible
with the weak warm air advection continues.
Short term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Upper low over the western end of Lake Erie will drift south and east as
it deepens and closes...but make it no further than the NYC area
by 00z Friday. Surface low breifly deepens late Wednesday and early Thursday but in
gnrl the entire system is not all that imprsv...just slow to move
as it cuts off from the westerlies.
Precipitation will initially be very light and the Atlantic inflow remains
well east of the area. However...this deeper moisture is eventually
captured and pulled back to the west. Best chance for heavier rain
may end up being Thursday and the northeasterly flow has pulled some of the
heavier rain...and warmer air...back into the area. Quantitative precipitation forecast amts will be
light...especially through Wednesday...despite the long duration of the event.
Long term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
2 PM update...
500 mb low will be spinning off of the Cape Cod coast at the start of
the extended. This will keep light precipitation in across the area before slowly
winding down by the end of the week. Next system will appch the northern
zones Sat into Sat night with perhaps an isolated shower. After this WV
mvs east, hipres builds in late in the weekend.
Temperatures expected to moderate after closed low ejects into the Canadian
Maritimes Friday night. For the weekend expect highs to be above normal
values as high builds in.
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
VFR expected through at least 08z tonight. Next WV will approach late
tonight with possibility of showers between 04z and 09z at rme,
syr, ith and Elm. Showers expected to hold off at bgm until closer
to 08z-12z. Once steadier rain moves in, expect MVFR restrictions
to follow. MVFR will likely remain through 18z Tuesday.
Drainage flow expected at rme, syr and avp with light/vrb elsewhere.
Winds increase from the southeast at 3-8 kts after 12z Tuesday.
Tuesday through Friday...widespread restrictions in lower cigs/-shra. High
confidence of MVFR...low-moderate confidence in IFR at times.
Sat...becoming VFR though potential exists for MVFR across