Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
257 PM EDT Monday Mar 10 2014
another weak frontal system will trigger scattered light flurries
or sprinkles across central New York tonight... then even warmer
conditions are expected on Tuesday with highs in the 40s to near
50. Winter will return abruptly on Wednesday as a storm system
brings snow or mixed precipitation and falling temperatures.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
1 PM update...
shortwave will skirt northern County Warning Area tonight as lopres rides along frontal boundary.
Expect this lift to combine with moisture early this evening to be able
to squeeze out some light snow showers across far northern New York state and
possibly down into the Mohawk Valley. Hvg a hard time believing that it
will appch the New York thruway but will keep flurry mention in for areas
south of the thruway as some moisture may be able to get wrung out.
After midnight moisture will quickly leaving the snow growth layer so have kept a
mention of flurries or -dz/-fzdz after 04z.
Under SW flow and cloud cover tonight, along with no significant cloud
advection expect min temperatures to only drop into the l/M 30s by morning. Weak
surface boundary passes through by daybreak allowing for slight shift in wind
direction and dropping dwpts, but no real chance for precipitation or cooldown
drg the day as flow aloft remains zonal.
Front that mvs through tonight will gradually wash out across PA. Expect
most of the area to go psunny drg the afternoon hours but then quickly
clouding back up as moisture streams north out of gom ahead of
impending storm. With neutral advection expected to occur tomorrow,
not expecting much difference in temperatures from today. Any areas that can
break out may see a degree or two warmer with nepa appchg 50 by afternoon.
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/...
3 PM update...
main story for the short-term period is the impending storm. 500 mb WV is
currently coming onshore in the Pacific northwest and will traverse across
intermountain west tonight. A piece of this wave will break off and
eventually close off over the 4-corners region. However a part of this
WV will continue across the plains states and eventually phase with northern
stream WV coming out of the upper Midwest drg the day Wednesday.
Light precipitation expected to mv into western sections by 06z Wednesday as lead shortwave
interacts with 800 mb front. By 12z Wed, lopres expected to be around
995mb across Kentucky with precipitation overspreading most of County Warning Area due to proximity of
surface boundary. Will go with categorical probability of precipitation north of the twin tiers and
chance-likely probability of precipitation further to the southeast. For Wed, expect categorical
probability of precipitation at all locations.
As for ptype, 12z guidance has trended warmer with sleet line up as
far north as the southern tier. NAM is now the warmest with GFS/Euro/CMC
fairly well in line with each other, give or take a County. Being
this far out, have simplified grids and gone with a rain/sleet mix up
to the state line for Wednesday and snow/sleet from the state line north
into the Susquehanna region with potential for -fzra at some points
throughout the day.
Cloud air will filter in behind the system on strong nwrly winds lvg the
bulk of snowfall to occur after 00z Thursday for eastern and southern sections.
Expect 8-10 inches to fall between 06z Wednesday and 12z Thursday from The Finger
lakes through the Mohawk Valley with somewhere between 6-10 inches north of the
state line. Only an inch or so is expected across nepa and Sullivan
County on the front end, mainly in the form of sleet, with bulk of
snow occurring behind system.
Will continue the Winter Storm Watch for heavy snow, strong winds and
wind chills for Wednesday night.
Long term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
the long term period begins with a much colder than normal airmass
fixed over NY, PA and New England. This will be scoured out on
Friday by a push of warm/moist air ahead of a storm approaching
across the upper Great Lakes. The storm will bring rain and snow
showers to our forecast area for late Friday into Saturday.
A ridge of Canadian high pressure will bring clearing conditions
for Sunday, but also another surge of polar air. It appears Sunday
and Monday will be much colder than normal again.
Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/...
a weak cold front will pass over the terminals overnight.
Otherwise it will be a quiet first 24 hours. Scattered MVFR this
afternoon will lift to VFR ceilings, and hold through early
evening. Ceilings will flirt with MVFR again overnight ahead of
Winds will be westerly tonight at 6 to 10 knots.
Wed/thurs...possible MVFR/IFR restrictions in snow.
New York...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday
morning for nyz009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-