Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
905 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
clearing skies will progress slowly but steadily eastward today as
high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Fair weather is
expected tonight. A cold front will bring a chance for showers
late Saturday and Saturday night across central New York.
Scattered showers will persist downwind of Lake Ontario on Sunday
with fair and breezy weather expected elsewhere.
Near term /through tonight/...
900 am EDT update...
light rain showers are slowly ending across the County Warning Area this morning
and some sunshine have returned over the western portions. Still
expect cloud coverage to decrease from west to east today as dry
air will continue to push into the region. Ridging aloft is
starting to move over western New York/PA and expect this to continue to
slide east today as the upper low that has produces rain lifts to
the north. Thus... after the showers end this morning expect today
to be dry.
For more information please read previous discussion below.
upper low off the new englnd CST will begin to lift out as next shortwave
moves into the central gtlakes today. Clouds this morning with some -ra or
dz across eastern zones. Clearing expeceted to progress steadily but slowly
eastward today. At this time think the western edge of the clouds will be near the rt
81 corridor in the 16-18z time frame. Western Catskills probably won't see
breaks until late today. Maxes in the u50s to near 60 western zones
where more sunset will occur...l50s across portions of the southern Catskills
where clouds will persist longest. Northwest winds gnrly 10-20 kts.
We'll likely see a period of clear skies tonight before clouds increase
in advance of the next shortwave late tonight due to warm air advection and weak isen
lift. Mins gnrly from the u30 to l40s.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
varying amts of clouds on Saturday due to morning warm air advection...then some
imprvmnt possible in the afternoon before more clouds arrive later in the day
as the cold front aprchs. SW flow ahead of the fnt will allow temperatures to
rise into the l60s across many areas. Chance probability of precipitation late in day for
-shra from Steuben into Oneida County...with chance probability of precipitation migrating
southeastward on Sat evening to cover much of central New York. Good dynamics with
this system but not alot of moisture. Weak lake influence combined
with another shortwave keeps chance probability of precipitation across far northern zones on Sunday into
sun evening where clouds will be more prevalent...with pc skies and dry
weather elsewhere. Blustery northwest winds expeceted on Sunday.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
315 am update...
forecast adjusted towards 00z wpc guidance. Trend in model
consensus /with GFS fastest...European model (ecmwf) middle...and Gem slowest/ is
for frontal passage to be within the Tuesday night-Wednesday
morning time frame. Probability of precipitation tweaked accordingly. Ahead of that
front...as already mentioned below we briefly get quite
warm...with highs Tuesday a good dozen or so degrees above
climatology. A few lower elevation spots may even touch 70. Behind
the front...expecting near normal temperatures and fairly quiet
followed closely with wpc guidance.
The weather on Monday and Tuesday will be quiet as weak ridging
will build over the region. This will result in temperatures rising into
the middle to upper 60s. The high temperatures will be well above the
seasonal norm which will aid to the nice fall we have had so far.
Wednesday Fall weather will return as another low pressure system
will sweep across the region dragging a cold front across central
New York and northeast Pennsylvania.
Aviation /13z Friday through Tuesday/...
large low pressure system is now northeast of Cape Cod and quickly
losing influence on our weather. As expected conditions actually
improved last several hours as drier air has been moving in and
eroding what remains of cloud cover on outer periphery of exiting
system. Kavp could still have brief MVFR ceiling...otherwise joining
the other terminals in a quick scattering out this morning as
very dry air mass and high pressure take over. Northwest winds 7-10 kts
with gusts 15-19 kts today...will diminishing and backing into
tonight. Mainly VFR tonight...but some uncertainty as to if an
MVFR cloud deck will mange form towards dawn under subsidence
inversion for some terminals...also some potential for a Little
Valley fog at kelm.
Sat ngt-sun...spotty -shra with Sat evening front...followed by
potential Post frontal MVFR ceiling into Sunday for New York terminals.
Sun night through Tuesday...mainly VFR.