Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
656 am EDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015
a weak disturbance, will bring a good deal of clouds today, and
perhaps some patchy drizzle this morning, and isolated showers
this afternoon. Tonight and Thursday, skies will clear, as high
pressure, briefly builds across the region. On Friday, showers
are expected, as a cold front crosses the area. Drier, cooler
weather, should follow on Saturday
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
430 am update... a saturated low-level environment early this
morning, has lead to a stratus deck, along with patchy drizzle,
and higher elevation fog. Although the cloud deck should lift
later this morning, leading to the dissipation of any residual
drizzle/fog, we do also expect some widely separated showers to
form during the afternoon over central NY, as a middle-level short-
wave swings across from west-east. Some breaks in the cloud cover
could develop later in the day, behind the aforementioned short-
wave, especially over northeast PA.
The resident air mass remains mild, so despite the cloudiness,
highs this afternoon should reach the 60s area-wide.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
445 am update... weak high pressure is expected to build across
New York/PA tonight-Thursday. As a result, at least partial clearing is
anticipated overnight, followed by partly-mostly sunny skies
Model guidance has remained consistent, in showing high pressure
quickly moving off the coast Thursday night, followed by a cold
frontal passage on Friday. Thus, clouds will increase Thursday
night, with a likelihood of showers towards daybreak, especially
over central New York. Friday will feature widespread showers, as some
upper-level jet support accompanies the just referenced frontal
system. Rainfall amounts do not look heavy, however, and should
average 0.25-0.5" for much of central New York/northeast PA.
On Friday night, the cold front will push out of the forecast
area, with showers ending ending from northwest-southeast.
Temperatures will remain mild for most of this period, with
daytime highs Thursday and Friday mostly in the 60s. Friday
night, cold air advection Post-frontal passage, should drop
readings into the low-middle 40s by daybreak Saturday.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
3 am update: only a few minor changes to previous forecast...bumped
up sunday's temperatures a couple degrees utilizing latest superblend
guidance. Also added in chance / slight chance for showers for
Monday night and Tuesday of next week. Otherwise previous forecast
still holds. See discussion below for further details.
Monday afternoon update: showers from a passing cold front will
start to come to an end Friday night across central New York and
northeast PA. By middle afternoon on Saturday high pressure at the
surface will regain control of the weather over the region and
prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. A weak wave
will move through the region Monday and Wednesday... but long term models
are in fairly good agreement of keeping the region dry. This
pattern will also allow temperatures to rise slightly above the seasonal
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
expect fluctuations to continue this morning in ceilings however
overall trend will be for low stratus to continue. For kith/kbgm
expect fluctuations this morning between MVFR to at times ceilings as
low as below alt min IFR. Elsewhere, MVFR ceilings should predominate
this morning for kelm/krme with kavp/ksyr fluctuating between low
end VFR and MVFR. The combination of the diurnal cycle plus mixing
due to approaching front should result in all sites lifting to low
end VFR early this afternoon.
Skies clear tonight behind the front as high pressure moves in
with light winds. This sets the stage for radiation fog to
possibly form by morning for kelm. Otherwise expect VFR tonight.
Winds will become northwest 5-10 knots by Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday...VFR except some IFR or worse am valley fog possible
Friday...rain/showers with associated restrictions.