Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
644 PM EDT Friday Apr 18 2014

a weak cold front will bring a few light showers or sprinkles
tonight to central New York. Dry weather will then return
Saturday, lasting into Monday. After a slight cool down on
Saturday, temperatures will moderate Sunday and Monday into the


Near term /through Saturday/...
640 PM update...surface cold front currently stretches from Eastern Lake
Ontario across roc to the western southern tier. Local radars show
weak returns along this boundary in the lake plain but due to
20-30 degrees dew point depressions only sprinkles are being
reported at the surface. Current forecast in good shape with chance/slight
chance probability of precipitation primarily confined to the northern Finger Lakes region to the
western Mohawk Valley through late evening.

2 PM update...

A weak front is slowly moving east into western New York at this time. A few light
rain showers behind it in southeast Ontario. With the dry air still at
the surface expecting very little to fall this evening. Precipitation should
be confined to The Finger lakes and western Mohawk Valley. Amounts
will be less than a tenth of an inch. Mostly schc probability of precipitation northern tier of
NE PA north.

Brief shot of cold air behind the front but not cold enough to set
off the lake effect with 850mb temperatures at -4c. With northwest flow should
only keep the clouds a little longer late tonight and Sat morning.

Sat afternoon warm air advection aloft kicks in and skies will become mainly clear. At
the surface high pressure builds in dropping the winds.


Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
2 PM update...

A large area of surface high over the County Warning Area Sat night extending north to
Quebec. Coldest night coming up with lows mostly 25 to 32. Some
return flow as the high moves east Sunday but surface winds light.
Highs still in the l60s.

Initial surface low tracks well north of the County Warning Area laying down a front
in southeast Canada. Precipitation will be stay in Canada with a upper level
zonal flow.

For rain will have to wait until at least Monday night as a short
wave digs a trough into the upper lakes. Lowered probability of precipitation to nothing
Sunday night and Monday morning. Only schc probability of precipitation far northwest Monday afternoon.
Models continue to slow progress of cold front.


Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
130 PM update...
medium range models are showing dry for Monday night and have pulled probability of precipitation
down to slight chance County Warning Area-wide with likely probability of precipitation for Tuesday as fnt comes
through. Lingering precipitation expected Tuesday night as ul trough swings through. 12z
GFS indicates 500 mb low dvlpng over the coast while 00z Euro keeps it
as an open WV. For the time being have gone with chance showers on Wednesday
for eastern sections.

1020mb high pressure builds in from the west on Thursday leading to dry
weather through the end of the extended. High temperatures following frontal passage on Wednesday
will drop to below seasonal norms for a day and then rebound under
shortwave ridging.


Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
18z update...
VFR through taf valid time. Middle-high clouds expected into the
evening hours with a few sprinkles possible between 02 and 07z at
ksyr and krme. Following weak front tonight may see a period of
broken-overcast VFR ceilings around 5kft but confidence is not high. Expect
these clouds to scatter out around 13z with kelm and kavp sky clear
after this time.

Winds around 10kts out of the south will become west-northwest following
frontal passage after midnight.



Sun night to Monday...VFR with local MVFR/IFR if fog develops.

Tue-Wed...showers with MVFR possible.


Fire weather...
2 PM Friday update...

No fire weather concerns through Monday. Very little rainfall this
evening with less than a tenth of an inch in New York. None in NE PA.
Next chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday.

This afternoon...relative humidity falling into the 30s but winds only 5 to 15
miles per hour. Saturday increasing winds and sunshine. Eastern areas could have
gusts over 20 miles per hour. Relative humidity falling to 25 to 40 percent. Will have to
watch this and see if the 10 hour fuels dry enough.

Fuels will be dry enough on Sunday and Monday but winds will be
under 20 miles per hour especially Sunday with the departing high. Afternoon min
relative humidity will be in the 20s Sunday and 30s Monday.


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.


near term...rrm/tac
short term...tac
long term...pvn
fire weather...