Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
437 PM EDT Thursday Jul 2 2015
high pressure over the area will bring mainly clear skies
overnight...and partly sunny skies on Friday. An upper level area
of low pressure may bring thunderstorms to the area on Saturday
Near term /through Friday/...
plenty of clouds around this afternoon but has hipres builds in with somewhat
drier air and with the loss of heating this evening...skies shd clear early.
Fog overnight is a tough call with drier air continuing to advect in.
However...looks like with the light winds the boundary layer will decpl
allowing for valley fog to form. Also...ground fog possible elsewhere.
Friday shows dry conds as we are between short waves and the old surface
boundary is further south. Suppose a few very light showers possible over the
extreme south but will leave them out of the forecast for now. Afternoon
temperatures remain below normal.
Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...
4 PM Thursday update...
Friday night to Saturday night complicated with weak frontal
boundaries and multiple upper level short waves. The first batch
of showers may come in late Friday night across NE PA ahead of a pair
of surface lows moving east well to the south. Initial short waves
exits midday. Another short wave comes in during the evening with
a broad but deep and progressive upper level trough. Wind fields
are weak so little shear to keep thunderstorms going. Usual model
biases on cape with the NAM the highest. Best numbers of over 1k
over The Finger lakes/central southern tier. A weak surface cold
front pushes through Sat afternoon and evening. Enough instability and
shear for an isolated or scattered thunderstorm with the showers.
Not a rain out with some showers in the morning twin tiers and
nepa then more showers everywhere in the afternoon dying in the evening.
Timing for thunderstorms not good with moisture and clouds coming
in Friday night then forcing early before much instability can occur.
High temperatures only middle to upper 70s.
Late Sat night drier air comes in ahead of a large surface high.
Sunday high pressure over the area surface and aloft. Slightly warmer
than Saturday. The high moves to the coast Sun night but still dry
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
4 PM Thursday update...
Little change made to the previous forecast. Models slower
bringing the next rain maker to the area. Slight chance starting
Tuesday but best chances now Wednesday to Thursday. Models not in good
agreement but looks unsettled starting Wednesday and going through at
least Thursday. Before this next upper level trough comes in warmer
and moister air moves northeast so highs in the 80s look likely.
Used superblend and HPC guidance.
Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/...
VFR conds this afternoon under the cumulus deck. Hipres and drier air will
clear the skies this evening. Fog a possiblity overnight as the boundary layer
decpls and temperatures bottom out. IFR possible in Elm...with ground fog
elsewhere and perhaps some breif MVFR visibilities. Clearing skies return
early Friday with VFR conds. Winds remain light in the weak surface
Friday afternoon and evening...mainly VFR.
Sat...chance of scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain west MVFR late in the day.
Sun through Tuesday...mainly VFR.