Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
619 am EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
high pressure will keep Thanksgiving day dry and mild, before a
storm system spreads rain showers and cooler weather into New York and
PA late Friday into Saturday.
Near term /through tonight/...
quiet, perfect Holiday weather today. The most difficult task this
morning has been accounting for the wild temperature differences
being caused by the clear versus cloud areas and the attempt at
warm air advection aloft to work down to the surface.
Temperatures will warm into the 50s today with mostly sunny skies
early and increasing high clouds late.
Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
another mild day is forecast for Friday as +10c 925mb isotherm
pushes to the New York/PA border. Temperatures may approach 60 down the
Cold front will slide into the forecast area Friday night. Strong agreement
between models warrants categorical pops, though quantitative precipitation forecast will be on
the light side.
Dry air races out ahead of the cold air on Saturday, cutting off
the precipitation before it becomes cold enough for the rain
showers to mix with snow showers.
Cool and quiet on Sunday as high pressure extends from the
northern plains into lower Ontario and New England.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
models continue to be in good agreement through the early part of
next week. At this point it appears that Sunday will be dry and
seasonably cool with high pressure over the area and high
temperatures not far from 40. A reinforcing shot of cool dry air
will arrive from the northwest on Monday... then the next southern
branch low pressure area will track from the lower Mississippi
Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday bringing a chance of rain
to our area. Snow chances appear to be quite low through this
period as winter gets off to a slow start across central New York and
Aviation /11z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR today with just some high thin clouds drifting at times over
the terminals 18-25 kft above ground level. Enhanced 40-50 knots low level jet will
persist early this morning for kith-ksyr-krme-kelm within 2 kft
above ground level...for low level wind shear conditions to 14z-15z before backing off. As for
surface winds...generally speaking...it will become south-southeast to south-southwest
9-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts for the New York terminals /less at
krme and kavp...with more of a localized easterly component at
krme/. Model soundings are suggesting some marine layer air
attempting to form MVFR ceiling for some terminals
tonight...but confidence in this is low. Model soundings may be
cooling the near-surface layer too much considering time of
year...producing an artificial cloud layer. Continued pre-frontal
southwest flow and warm air advection in boundary layer leaves
doubt for restrictions to actually occur...except for kavp which
has a decent shot of realizing the MVFR ceiling.
Friday...mainly VFR but rain showers and minor restrictions possible late Friday
through Friday night with frontal passage.
Sat...Post-frontal MVFR cloud deck...becoming VFR.