Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
204 PM EDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015
isolated thunderstorms will be over the region through early
evening. Cooler, drier weather will settle in for the remainder of
Near term /through tonight/...
short wave trough is dipping toward northern New York this afternoon. Over
central New York and northeast PA, MLCAPES have climbed to around 1000
j/kg, with ample bulk shear values around 40 knots and decent
middle-level lapse rates in place. Not surprisingly, a few
thunderstorms have fired over the region.
There are some issues with the severe potential. For one thing,
the short wave is north of the instability and shear over our forecast area.
Also, most of the forecast area is under the influence of the left-rear
quadrant of the ul jet steak.
Due to the potential for isolated severe convection, we will leave
the enhanced wording in place in the severe weather potential statement. However if strong
convection does not manifest itself by late afternoon, we will
pull the wording back out.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
another wave will rotate out of Canada on Wednesday, keeping a
slight chance for a shower over the region. Temeratures will be
cool, as depicted by 850mb temperatures below 10c. Forecast maxes are
prognosticated to reach 72f to 77f across the forecast area.
Model trend continues to be for middle Atlantic cyclone to stay far
enough south Thursday-Friday and not impact our region. Will
stick with a mainly dry forecast for Thursday into Friday, with
temperatures remaining several degrees below normal for early
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
335 am update...little change to current forecast just refreshed
with latest wpc guidance.
generally followed HPC guidance this period. The long term begins
with a weak trough extending from eastern Canada down through the
lower Ohio Valley. As a series of diffuse waves rotate through the
flow, a more defined cyclone is prognosticated to form over the lower
midatlantic region and track toward the Atlantic coast. While the
main low is too far south initially to affect US, the trough will
keep at least a slight chance for showers in the forecast through
much of the period. A cool high building down from Canada will
keep temperatures in the middle 70s on Saturday.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
18z update... mostly VFR conditions are anticipated, with a few
brief exceptions, which will be outlined below.
First, hit and miss showers and isolated thunderstorms will dot
the region this afternoon. A lack of observed lightning thus far
precludes the strict mention of thunderstorms and rain in the terminal forecasts.
They can be added to individual sites as needed. For the time
being, we'll have a tempo group for showers/MVFR restrictions
Early Wednesday, an area of lower clouds/light showers is expected
to extend southeastward from Lake Ontario, perhaps impacting ksyr
and krme. MVFR restrictions were added to these sites for a short
period around daybreak.
Finally, a brief period of fog could also occur at kelm towards
daybreak, so IFR restrictions were inserted here.
Gusty west to northwest surface winds this afternoon, will
diminish to 5 knots or less overnight, before increasing out of the
northwest and turning gusty again on Wednesday.
Thursday...light showers could impact kavp...but at this juncture the
most likely scenario is for conditions to remain unrestricted.