Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
119 PM EST Monday Dec 9 2013
low pressure systems moving through the upper Great Lakes and along
the East Coast will bring a light wintry mix to the area this
morning before ending as light rain or drizzle by midday. Tonight
through Thursday, Arctic air will work into the area. This will
produce accumulating lake effect snows east and southeast of Lake
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
630 am update...precipitation has changed to light freezing rain and
freezing drizzle across all areas except for Oneida County where
light snow/sleet is still mixing in at times. Mixing with snow/sleet
will end soon as middle levels continue warming. Readings across NE
PA and much of the southern tier/Finger Lakes have warmed into the
upper 20s and lower 30s. Several stations are at 32 including Penn
Yan and Scranton. Forecast in good shape.
At 445 am...weak areas of low pressure were moving through the upper
Great Lakes and along the East Coast, although well offshore. Area
resides in between both systems in a region of weak isentropic
lift. Radar returns are light with the best activity over the northern
County Warning Area where the above mentioned isentropic lift is strongest. P-type
across NE PA, southern tier and Finger Lakes region is currently
falling as light freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Over the
western Catskills and western Mohawk Valley a light wintry mix is
falling with this activity expected to change to light freezing
rain and freezing drizzle as middle levels continue to warm and lift
weakens. As these systems continue to lift north this morning a
moderating S/SW flow will allow surface temperatures to warm above the
freezing mark ending the icing threat by late morning across much
of the area. In the western Mohawk Valley, northern Oneida County
and parts of the Catskills light freezing precipitation may persist until
midday. By this afternoon any lingering precipitation will fall as
drizzle or light rain as temperatures rise into the middle to upper 30s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
tonight...as low pressure moves through eastern Canada a southwest
flow of cooler air will develop over the region. Primarily a dry
period with just chance probability of precipitation in the far north for some lake effect
snow showers although temperatures are only marginal.
Tuesday...another surface low moving through the middle Atlantic will
likely spread some light snow across the far southeast forecast area during
the early morning hours then move out by early afternoon. Minor snow
accums are possible here especially in southern Luzerne, Lackawanna,
Wayne and Pike counties. Remainder of the area will remain cloudy
to mostly cloudy with maxes in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Tuesday night...an Arctic front will drop into the upper Great
Lakes with region under southwest flow. Significant lake effect
snow may brush northern Oneida County but there remains much
uncertainty as model soundings show winds shifting around and also
a fair amount of directional shear within the unstable layer. The
central southern tier and Finger Lakes region may also see
scattered snow showers from Lake Erie. Lows will range in the
teens to lower 20s.
Wednesday...Arctic front approaches the area by evening. Low level
flow will back in response to the approaching trough and likely
lift the lake snow band east of Lake Ontario further north. Will
continue with likely probability of precipitation in northern Oneida County for now but
this may be over doing it. Rest of area will be partly to mostly
cloudy with scattered flurries or snow showers. Highs will be in
Wednesday night...Arctic front pushes through bringing the area
another short of very cold air for this early winter season. Lake
effect snows will drop south once this boundary moves through
possibly impacting the Syracuse area and western Mohawk Valley.
Flow will be better aligned and unstable layer will reach above
700 mb. Significant snows are possible here.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
3 am update...
followed wpc guidance. Period dominated by lake effect Thursday
and Friday. These clouds will moderate the Arctic air mass that
comes in Wednesday night. This weekend models uncertain on storm tracks on
how close high pressure will build in. Both Euro and GFS show a
storm for US but wpc has high pressure. The cold air at the end
of the week might keep the storm off the coast and the lake effect
215 PM EST update...
a very active weather pattern is expected in the extended
forecast. Minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast and
leaned towards wpc guidance. Very broad upper level low will
slowly drift north and east of the region resulting in a much
cooler air mass over the region... thus le snow showers will be
possible through Friday for central New York. High pressure will build
across New England this weekend which will help temperatures creep closer
towards 32. With large difference within GFS/European model (ecmwf) into the
weekend kept previous forecast with a slight chance for snow
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
115 PM EST update...
a weak cold front will sweep across central New York and northeast
Pennsylvania this afternoon. This front will result in winds
transitioning from the south to west. Winds may be gusty for a few
hours behind the passage of the front but by Tuesday morning winds
are expected to remain below 12 knots.
Dense cloud coverage remains over much of the area this afternoon
with fuel alternate ceilings and embedded IFR. Expect ceilings to lift to
VFR for all taf sites by late this evening behind the frontal passage. Visbys
have increased to VFR for all taf sites expect for kavp. Expect
conditions at kavp to slowly increase over the next couple of
A surface low will quickly sweep north along the East Coast this
afternoon bringing the next chance for snow showers for kavp...
kbgm... and kelm. MVFR ceilings are expected with these showers.
There is a slight chance these showers may make it further
north... however confidence is low... thus kept out of taf for the
Tuesday night to Wednesday morning...mainly VFR.
Wednesday afternoon and evening...IFR/MVFR in snow with an Arctic cold front.
Wednesday overnight to Friday...MVFR in New York and maybe IFR rme in lake
effect snow showers. VFR avp.