Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
253 am EDT Monday Sep 1 2014
areas of fog are expected over central New York and northeast
Pennsylvania this morning. A weak area of high pressure will build
into central New York today. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, especially in the higher
terrain of northeast Pennsylvania. However these will be quick
hitting showers. A cold front will push across the area on Tuesday
accompanied by another round of showers and thunderstorms. A break
in the humidity will occur on Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
110 am update...
a slight chance of showers is possible this morning across southeastern zones as a
subtle shortwave rides up in southwesterly flow. Given the humid airmass in place
expect areas of fog to be around County Warning Area-wide through 14z this morning. Latest
hires models are showing little pinpricks dvlpng after 15z across southeastern
zones in area of orographic lift. Not exactly sure how far northwest this
convection will be able to push into County Warning Area as NAM is suggesting warming
temperatures aloft around 600mb. Hrrr, hires arw and local WRF keep remainder of
County Warning Area free of convection through 00z tonight. Therefore have confined scattered
thunder chances to areas along and south of an Oneonta-Binghamton-
Towanda line for today. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm elsewhere but do
not think it significant enough to put a damper on any outdoor plans
for this Labor Day.
Big story will be the humid temperatures. Expect psunny conditions to
progress from north to south in area of brief hipres, both at the surface
and aloft, which will result in very soupy airmass this afternoon. 800 mb temperatures
will warm to near +18c yielding maxes in the l/M 80s. These temperatures
coupled with dewpoint temperatures in the u60s will result in a sultry airmass
this afternoon with very little in the way of wind to find much relief.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
250 am update...
for tonight, expect another soupy night with potential for fog
expected again. Have added patchy fog into grids between 09z and 12z
tonight with mins expected to only drop into the M/u 60s and dewpoints
remaining about the same. Think that any scattered convection will dissipate
after 03z tonight as heating wanes and will side toward no precipitation for tonight
until closer to daybreak as trough approaches from the west and upglide
begins to increases across western zones toward daybreak. With gom opening back
up ahead of next system and precipitable water values incrsg to 1.50 inches through 12z
feel slight chance probability of precipitation warranted.
Front will mv through forecast area by Tuesday evening. Ahead of front atmosphere will become
unstable with convective available potential energy possibly appch 1000 j/kg depending on convective
debris. Expect early morning to see patchy fog dissipate by 14z, with
scattered showers continuing over County Warning Area in saturated airmass. After 16z,
expect impact from frontal boundary to be felt in the form of a line of
convection moving in from the northwest. Thunderstorms will be supported by rrq of ul jet
streak rotating around base of trough. Depending on degree of
destabilization cannot rule out an isolated severe storm or two Tuesday afternoon
as cold front impacts area drg prime diurnal heating with 0-6km bulk shear
values ranging from 35-40kts. Highs on Tuesday ahead of fnt will warm to
near 80 across The Finger lakes where temperatures will likely be held down by clouds
and M/u 80s over far southeast counties.
Frontal passage occurs through entire County Warning Area at 00z with lingering probability of precipitation overnight.
Thunder chances look to diminish after 03z as is typical for summertime
convection with just lingering showers working southeastward through 06z.
Prtly-mostly cloudy skies expected through 12z Wednesday with dewpoints and temperatures very
slowly dropping into the lower 60s by morning on northwest flow.
Surface hipres along with zonal flow will be in place drg the day Wednesday with
a full day of drying expected. Cooler temperatures also expected with highs
only climbing into the 70s and a break in the humidity with dewpoints
only in the 50s.
Surface high pressure will reign supreme through end of short term. Aloft
expect just flat zonal flow to continue. Appears to be a perfect
night for radnl valley fog Wednesday night but too far out to include in grids
at this time.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
medium range models are in excellent agreement through the
extended showing a flat upper level ridge across the region with
the stronger westerlies just across the border in southern
Canada. Late in the period an upper level trough and associated cold
front will cross the area on Saturday. Wednesday night through much of
Friday will be dry with temperatures running 5-10 degrees above normal.
Will include chance probability of precipitation later Friday through Saturday evening with
surface cold front then dry and significantly cooler on Sunday as
Canada surface high builds south.
Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/...
06z Monday update... widespread restrictive conds are anticipated
early this morning. IFR conds should be the most prevalent at
kelm/kbgm/kith...with occasional IFR ceilings also possible at krme/ksyr/kavp in
the 09-13z time frame. From 13-16z...ceiling bases should slowly
lift...with VFR foreseen area-wide by midday/early afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the 20-00z window...but it still appears
that coverage will be fairly sparse...thus we'll continue not to
include any thunderstorms and rain in the terminals at this time.
Although it's certainly possible that some fog/haze could develop again later
this evening...for now we'll keep things VFR through 06z Tuesday.
Tuesday into Tuesday night...restrictions in scattered shra/tsra...mainly
afternoon and evening.
Wednesday-Friday...VFR...except possible early morning fog...mainly