Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
722 PM EST Friday Mar 7 2014
above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday under
high pressure. A cold front will move through the area tomorrow
with a chance for light rain and snow showers. Once this passes
Saturday night, high temperatures will cool once again for Sunday
and then moderate through the early part of next week.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
140 PM update...
clouds are diminishing on schedule this afternoon with only a few lingering
in nepa before dissipating completely. Warm advection is srly flow
continues this afternoon with Finger Lakes now up into the m40s this afternoon and
likely to rise a degree or two higher. 800 mb temperatures rise above 0c by 21z and
expect temperatures to top out around 47.
Surface pressure analysis showing 1000mb surface low off of the NC coast and
will lift off to the northeast this evening. Closer to our neck of the
Woods, hipres in the Canadian Maritimes will also build east lvg our
area in between systems for tonight. This will mean very little flow at
the surface under clear skies this evng, though should start to see some higher
clouds from appchg system toward midnight.
Given stagnant flow expected through most of the overnight and some radn'l
cooling expect strong inversion to set up. With dewpoints remaining in the
20s and temperatures dropping down to dewpoint values toward morning moisture
expected to get trapped under inversion. All guidance is showing low
stratus dvlpng across nepa by midnight and spreading north and south
from there so have kept mostly clear through 05z, then pcldy by 07z. Still a
little unsure of how extensive these low clouds will be away from system.
Frontal boundary now located in the up of Michigan draped down into the
Central Plains, looks to advance toward the southeast overnight. It
appears that it will be located along the international brdr by 12z.
Most of the precipitation should fall behind the front as airmass will take time to
saturate down, thus no precipitation expected through 12z.
As for mins tonight, have gone cooler in the east in the low-middle teens
where temperatures are struggling to rise as significantly as their
counterparts to the west. Radn'l cooling under clear skies for a time
tonight will allow most areas west of I-81 to drop to near 20 with valleys
likely seeing the coldest reading in these locations and ridgetops a
couple of degrees warmer.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday/...
3 PM update...
cold front will mv through the area from the north drg the day tomorrow. As it
does so, it will take awhile to moisten atmosphere completely, so
expect virga by daybreak, then gradually incrsng precipitation chances
throughout the day across central New York. Expect temperatures to rise across northern
zones through 18z tomorrow aftn, then remain steady or very slowly drop off
remainder of the afternoon. Further to the south, expect valley areas to once
again warm into the 40s.
As for ptype expect slight chance of snow to mv in by 14z, then gradually
mixing with and changing to all rain drg the afternoon. Quantitative precipitation forecast amnts will be
just a few hundredths of an inch tomorrow with only a dusting of
snow, at most, expected across higher terrain of Susquehanna region.
Moisture decreases in the snow growth layer on Sat night though low-level
moisture looks to remain and will likely produce some semblance of drizzle
through 07z. With temperatures dropping below freezing across New York state, have worded slight
chance for drizzle and/or a light snow shower through the overnight hour. At this
time, will not mention potential in severe weather potential statement as confidence is very low that
this will even occur.
Clipper system mv in Sun night though what precipitation chance this will bring to area
remains to be seen. GFS brings light snow showers in with initial WV between
00z and 12z Monday while NAM keeps it well north of County Warning Area through this
time and does not bring any precipitation into area until Monday afternoon.
Temperatures expected to be well above normal on Monday for highs with temperatures
settling out in the 40s drg the afternoon.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
little change to the medium range forecast which is heavily based on wpc
guidance. Main feature of interest will be the middle week system
passing across the middle Atlantic region. Questions remain concerning potnl
phasing and speed of this storm. We did raise probability of precipitation to likely this
time frame (wed/Wednesday ngt). Otherwise some light precipitation from passing northern
stream systems (enhanced at times from lake influences) prior to
this storm. Temperatures expeceted to rise into the u30s or lower 40s on
Tuesday...falling to below seasonal norms for late in the work week.
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions are expected through 10z tonight as we are
sandwiched between two systems. We might see low ceilings developing
tonight as low level moisture will linger and a strong inversion is
expected to set up across New York and PA. Decided to place a tempo
group in the taf as confidence is low and decided to bring in low
ceilings only at kavp and krme. A cold front will move into the area
from the west Saturday morning bringing MVFR ceilings and a chance for
light IFR snow showers. Low ceilings may linger through the taf
Sat ngt-sun/Mon/Tue...MVFR ceilings mainly central New York with scattered -shsn.
Tuesday ngt/Wed...MVFR/IFR in snow.