Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1259 am EST sun Nov 23 2014
an upper-level disturbance will bring some light rain or freezing
rain tonight...mainly to portions of central New York. Sunday will
be mainly dry and milder. After a period of rain Sunday
night...Monday will be unseasonably warm...with highs reaching
the 60s for much of the area.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
934 PM update...
dropped Freezing Rain Advisory based on calls to local dots with
the exception of Oneida County where mesonet sites are still close
to freezing. Due to such cold weather the past week I would not be
shocked to still see some light icing in some isolated spots
through midnight, especially our normally colder sections such as
secondary roads, sidewalks, and shady spots. Since this is not
expected to be widespread, we will cover that with an Special Weather Statement. Up
across Oneida County temperatures should rise well enough above freezing
within the next few hours for plain rain here.
410 PM update...
issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for locales still holding Tuff
onto freezing temps, namely Susquehanna County and northern Wayne County as
roadways are slippery motor vehicle accidents are occurring per
penndot. Remainder of sites have climbed well above freezing but cold air
seems to be locked into these areas. Still seeing patchy drizzle
in these areas as WV departs to the east.
Previous discussion below...
215 PM update... we've expanded the freezing rain advsy to include a
number of our far eastern zones (all of Oneida...Otsego...Delaware...and
Patchy light precipitation is overspreading much of the region late this
afternoon...with precipitation likely to become more persistent across our northern and
eastern zones this evening...as another shortwave zips through the area...and
enhances lift associated with warm air advection forcing. It still appears that temperatures
aloft will warm at a sufficient rate to preclude most ptyps...other
than primarily rain or freezing rain. As is normally the case...low-
level cold air will be hardest to dislodge in the southern Tug Hill
region...Otsego County...and the western Catskills...hence the advsy for
this region. We still expect that temperatures will hover near or just below
the freezing mark this evening over sections of the Poconos in NE PA.
However...precipitation will be much lighter/more spotty in nature over this
area...so that is why no advsys have been posted. Across the rest
of the forecast area...temperatures will be far enough above 32f...and/or precipitation will be
light enough...so as to prevent any real issues with icing.
-Ra/-fzra is expected to taper off from SW to NE after 06-09z...as the above
mentioned shortwave lifts to off our NE...and we're just left with a
broad SW flow pattern...and no real triggering mechanisms for precipitation.
Temperatures will exhibit a non-diurnal trend overnight...rising slowly
with time. Most of our model guidance captured this nicely...and
we used a blend of our previous forecast...as well as adjlav and hi-res
Short term /6 am this morning through Tuesday/...
230 PM update... much of sun still looks precipitation-free from this
Vantage pt...as cny/NE PA reside in between disturbances. Despite only
limited sunshine (lingering morning clouds...plus increased cloud cover
again from the S and SW by late aftn)...high temperatures should range from the
middle 40s-lower 50s.
Sun night looks wet...as the surface-850 mb warm frontal boundaries lift northward
through the region...associated with a deepening cyclone moving up into the
northern lakes region. Thus...probability of precipitation remain in the likely-Cat ranges.
Although a few showers can't be ruled out...we'll probably have a relative
lull again for most of Monday...with cny/NE PA solidly in a warm sector
type of environment. In fact...readings will be unseasonably
warm...with statistical guidance continuing to advertise highs
well into the 60s for a good portion of the area Monday afternoon.
An occluded/cold front tied to the above mentioned surface cyclone is
prognosticated to swing through the area Monday evening...with at least scattered
showers expected to accompany this feature. Some of our model
solutions hint at the development of marginal instability late Monday (sb convective available potential energy
of 300-600 j/kg...especially over NE pa). If this were to
materialize...this sitn would have to be closely monitored for a
possible cool season Low Cape-high shear type of event...given the
prognosticated 0-1 km and 0-3 km bulk shear values. At this early
juncture...we do not yet have any thunder mentioned in the forecast.
Later Monday night and Tuesday...a cold air advection regime will be with US again...on a west-southwesterly
flow pattern. Since this traj is not favorable for our County Warning Area...and also
the incoming air mass is not that cold initially...les impacts will be
minimal or none at all through Tuesday. As a matter of fact...blyr
temperatures only appear to support a -shra/-shsn mix on Tuesday...with temperatures
still in the 30s or lower 40s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
followed HPC guidance this period with mesoscale adjustments for
lake snow bands.
Slightly more westward track with the Wednesday-Wednesday night
low on the latest model runs. However the forecast tracks still
only give a glancing blow of precipitation to our southeastern zones.
Northwest flow behind the Atlantic storm will reinforce polar air
and may bring some lake effect snow showers to the northern forecast area for
Thursday and Friday. The best potential will be from northeastern
Onondaga into northwestern Oneida.
Mean trough will remain fixed over the northeast with a strong
anticyclone over the southeastern states forecast to persist through the
end of the next week.
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
low level wind shear is expected to continue to about 10z with a 240-260 degree flow
between 40-48 kts at 2000 feet...exception is low level wind shear persisting to
15z krme due to opposition of flow at 2kft to localized east-southeast valley
wind at surface. Unfortunately...enhanced jet from a strongly
forced wave appears likely to redevelop low level wind shear towards the end of
the taf period also...but in between during the daytime...no low level wind shear and
light SW to southeast winds...backing with time. As for clouds ...
krme will hold onto high end MVFR ceilings through the morning...scattered
-shra as well initially...and even a bit into afternoon before
lifting. Otherwise expecting mainly VFR until towards end of taf
period when fuel alt request MVFR ceiling develops kavp-kelm-kith-kbgm
along with showers beginning 04z-06z Monday.
Monday...restrictions in rain/fog mainly Monday morning...then rain showers
with frontal passage Monday evening. Times of possible low level wind shear as well.
Tuesday through Thursday...mainly VFR...but coastal system may skim at
least kavp with -sn late Wednesday-early Thursday.
New York...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 am EST early this morning for