Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
735 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015
surface high pressure will drift east off the East Coast this
evening bringing dry cool weather across the region tonight. A
warm front may bring a few sprinkles to central and northern New
York late tonight... the southwesterly flow will bring much warmer
weather on Thursday. An approaching cold front will bring some
showers Thursday night and Friday... followed by colder weather
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
0720 PM update...made some adjustments to evening temperatures based on
latest observation. Also decreased sky cover for this evening based on
latest satellite loop. Otherwise no changes.
Previous discussion...quiet weather will prevail this evening with mostly
clear skies through the evening. A patch of clouds over SW new
should remain west of our area through the night. Middle-level
cloudiness over Lake Superior associated with an approaching warm
front will increase from the northwest late tonight. Lowered
blended mav/met MOS by a few degrees over the south and east where
clear skies... light winds and patchy remaining snow cover should
allow for reasonably good radiational cooling conditions.
Meanwhile over The Finger lakes a light southerly breeze and
increasing clouds later tonight will keep temperatures a bit
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Saturday/...
models are in good agreement on the expected weather scenario
through Thursday night... then diverge Friday and Friday night.
Thursday still looks to be the warmest day that we have seen since
at least late December... when a brief warm spell occurred around
Christmas. Current temperatures are in the middle 50s to lower 60s
across lower Michigan with middle 60s in Indiana and a moderately
strong southwesterly flow should bring that airmass over our area
by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will approach 60 in many
areas. A cold front will approach from the west Thursday night
with a few rain showers spreading east across the area. The rain
Thursday night will not be heavy but dew points rising into the
lower 40s will begin to melt some of the higher elevation snow
pack that still remains in central New York. Rising can be
expected on area rivers by Friday.
The details of the forecast become very uncertain on Friday. At
this point it appears that the most likely scenario will be that
a cold front moves slowly south across the area early Friday...
accompanied by some showers. The front will probably stall
somewhere over PA later Friday... with the heaviest concentration
of showers along the front in PA... and a lower chance of rain
farther north across New York. Precipitable water values climb above 1.00 inch along
the frontal zone and New York/PA will likely be in the right entrance
region of an upper jet over Quebec... so exactly where the front
stalls will be critical for how much rain may fall late Thursday
night into Friday. With the front expected to reach at least as
far south as central PA thunder potential does not look good
The forecast becomes even more uncertain on Friday night as
another wave is forecast by all of the models to move northeast
along the front and off the New England coast early Saturday. The
NAM/GFS have trended farther south and colder with this system...
while the European model (ecmwf)/15z sref insist that the surface wave will track
farther north across New York state. The exact track of this wave will
determine how much precipitation falls across our area... and how
much will be rain vs. How much will be snow. Right now it appears
that the most likely scenario will be some rain later Friday
ending as snow late Friday night. Regardless of the details Friday
night the models come back into agreement on Saturday indicating a
blustery cold day with scattered flurries and temperatures only
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
2 PM Wednesday update...
Followed wpc guidance. Much uncertainty with upper level pattern
changing with fast migratory waves. County Warning Area falls in the storm tracks
multiple times again. Saturday night and Sunday in a northwest flow. Does
not look cold enough for a Good Lake effect event but a cold front
GOES through. Mostly light snow. Sun night to Monday a weak storm
moves in from west with mixed precipitation. A bigger storm moves in Tuesday
to Wednesday. With a track near US could be mostly rain. This will be
the storm to watch. Much uncertainty with precipitation type and amounts.
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. A weak warm front
will lift northeast across nearby southern Canada late tonight
and into early Thursday morning. This feature will spread middle
level clouds over the southern terminals between 06z-14z with low
VFR/middle level clouds during the same time period at krme/ksyr.
After 14z skies will improve to just scattered cirrus.
Light and variable winds overnight becoming southerly at 10-15
knots with gusts around 25 knots.
Thursday ngt-Fri...restrictions possible in rain showers.
Friday ngt-Sat...restrictions possible from mixed rain-snow.
Sat ngt-Mon...restrictions possible from mixed rain-snow showers.