Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1052 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
weak high pressure will keep dry weather across central New York
and northeast Pennsylvania into midday Saturday. A cold front will
bring the chance for rain showers late Saturday afternoon through
Sunday. Monday high pressure will build back over the region
briefly resulting in dry weather.
Near term /through Saturday/...
7 and 10 PM updates...
just minor updates this evening with no precipitation. Broken high
thin clouds have not prevented surface temperatures from falling
quickly. Also light to calm surface winds with weak surface ridge.
Biggest adjustment to the min temperatures. Some 30s already so adjusted
central and southern zones down.
225 PM EDT update...
the stacked upper level low that have caused unsettled weather for
days have finally moved far enough east that it no longer impacts
our weather pattern. The low will continue to lift north today near
Nova Scotia. As this system continue to lift northward we will go
into slight ridging aloft.
It appears that all showers have dissipated this afternoon and
possibly some virga is left. The cloud coverage have also
dissipated much quicker than expected which also have allowed temperatures
across the County Warning Area that have seen lots of sunshine to rebound quite
nicely this afternoon. Temperatures have been able to rise into the upper
50s to low 60s. Expect temperatures to rise a couple more degrees before
A very weak wave aloft will pass over the area this afternoon and
evening. Due to a fairly dry atmosphere... expect this wave to
just produce some clouds... mainly cirrus. It appears for much of
the area today this will be another beautiful fall day.
Tonight the stacked low will continue to lift north as another
shortwave trough starts to sink south along the Great Lakes
region. This will keep US under weak riding aloft allowing surface
weak high pressure to build across portions of New York and PA. The
evening will start out as mostly clear and by sunrise expect an
increase in cloud coverage over the west due to the advancing
system. Since high pressure will prevail and mostly clear skies will
occur through much of tonight... temperatures are expected to fall into
the upper 30s to low 40s tonight.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
225 PM EDT update...
an unsettled weather pattern returns to this forecast period.
However... due to a weak surface ridge building into the region early
Saturday morning... expect at least the morning hours to remain
dry. Saturday afternoon/evening another shortwave trough will
start to impact the County Warning Area by ejecting a vorticity maximum across the
region. There will be a chance for showers through Sunday night.
This system will also force a cold front across the region late
Sat afternoon/evening. The best chance for rain showers with this
front will be around The Finger lakes region... western Mohawk
Valley... and the southern Tug Hill plateau. This system has
impressive upper level dynamics but lacks moisture... thus do not
expect heavy rain showers attendant with this system. Winds will
become breezy Post frontal and remain breezy through much of the
day on Sunday as the mslp increases across the County Warning Area.
After the first initial wave passes through the area a secondary
wave then will quickly drop and follow in it's wake. This may
create additional showers over the northern portions of the County Warning Area.
Shortly after that... lake enhanced rain showers will be likely
lasting through Sun night. Monday is expected to be dry as high
pressure is expected to build back over the region.
Temperatures on Sunday/Monday will become more fall like as the
front will bring cooler air into the region.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
125 PM update...
medium range models have come into good agreement with system moving in
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. While GFS has come onboard with ec
regarding timing of frontal passage late Tuesday ngt, latest CMC is slower and
does not bring frontal passage through until Wednesday morning. Either way, have gone with
wpc guidance for system with chance showers. Northwest flow will follow system
as it pushes into eastern Canada, setting the stage for lake effect
showers until hipres builds in on Thursday.
Temperatures will climb well above normal on Tuesday ahead of system with highs
possibly reaching into the 70s drg the afternoon. Cold front passage will
quickly drop temperatures back down toward normal values through the end of the
Aviation /03z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR expeceted through the taf period. Ridge ovhd this evening shd keep kskies
mainly clear other than some hi clouds through late night. Toward morning...WV moving
through the Great Lakes will develop a lower cloud deck...especially over the New York
sites...but gnrly shd remain in the VFR Cat. A few very light showers
are possible as the WV passes...but not enough to lower ceilings or restrict
visibilities. Drier air bhd the WV arrives before the end of the taf period.
Sat ngt-sun...spotty -shra with Sat evening front...followed by
potential Post frontal MVFR ceiling into Sunday for New York terminals.
Sun night through Tuesday...mainly VFR.