Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
643 PM EST Monday Jan 26 2015
light snow continues to fall this afternoon across New York and
Pennsylvania, an additional one to three inches of snow mall fall
this afternoon. Tonight the clipper that brought snow showers to
the region will become a powerful nor Easter and create many
hazardous across much of the northeast. Heavy snow is likely over
the Poconos to Catskills through Tuesday evening. A wintry
weather pattern will persist through the week.
Near term /until 10 PM this evening/...
425 PM update...
issued a last second Winter Weather Advisory for portions of
central so tier and Finger Lakes. We are receiving reports of 3 to
4 inches of snow from trained spotters in this area, and hrrr
holds activity over the new advisory area through the evening. New
projections are for 3 to 6 inches over this region.
330 PM EST update...
the calm before the storm...
light snow showers have advanced northward this afternoon and now
have reached pretty much the whole County Warning Area. These showers are expected
to continue to lift northward this evening and additional
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of snow are possible... especially
over The Finger lake region.
Temperatures have risen quite a bit from this morning and currently range
in the middle teens to low 20s. Temperatures may increase a couple more
degrees this afternoon then will slowly decrease after sunset.
This evening the clipper that have brought the County Warning Area snow this
afternoon will transition over to a powerful Nor'easter and create
copious amounts of snowfall for much of the northeast. This
Nor'easter will be discussed in the following section.
Short term /10 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
330 PM EST update...
as mentioned before the clipper will transform into a powerful
Nor'easter and create an almost stand still for much of the New
England coast. Snow from this system is still expected to start
after 06z tonight and may prevail through the late evening hours
on Tuesday. We continue to remain on the far outer edge of this
system. With that being said... there are still some uncertainties
with how much snowfall will fall in our County Warning Area from this system.
Confidence is decreasing that we will reach warning criteria for
Sullivan and Pike County. At this time it appears that the greatest
moisture axis will remain well to our east. Also... with each new
guidance run hinting at that edge shifting ever so slightly
east... we may reach advisory and not warning criteria for those
two counties. It is still too far out in the evolution of this
storm to know where exactly the cutoff of warning criteria will
be... thus kept previous warning/advisory locations the same.
Storm total snowfall accumulations were modified just slightly
from the previous forecast. The highest expected snowfall
accumulations over the County Warning Area are still expected to be in the western
Catskills and the Pocono Mountain region. At this time... kept ten to
fourteen inches total over these regions. We will closely monitor
the overall evolution of this storm and update as necessary.
Winds will become gusty during the day tomorrow and create blowing
and drifting snow. Winds are expected to range from 10 to 20 miles per hour
with gusts up to 30. This will create hazardous driving
Temperatures after this system pulls away will be very cold falling into
the single digits or slightly below zero.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
220 PM update...
high pressure builds in quickly behind departing Nor'easter with clouds
clrng drg the morning from west to east. 800 mb temperatures warm to near -10c
yielding highs in the l/M 20s. Shortwave ridging works in aloft Wednesday night
with mostly clear skies through most of the overnight before clouding up from the west
by 12z. Dry weather expected to hold through Thursday morning.
Warm advection will ovrsprd western zones Thursday morning bringing a low
chance of light snow to Finger Lakes area. Upper trough and associated frontal
system swings through Thursday night and with all models indicating this
solution have opted to go likely probability of precipitation for snow between 00z and 12z Friday. Northwest
flow will continue behind system leading to another chance for lake effect
snow showers through Friday night until next high builds in.
Basically followed wpc guidance through the end of the long term with
hipres resulting in dry weather through the first half of the weekend. Next
chance for snow showers appear to mv in on Sunday.
Models differ significantly late in the long term with cloud Canadian
air filtering in as 12z GFS has lopres over top of County Warning Area as opposed
to ec indicating nearly flow with hipres. Thus have gone with wpc
numbers for lows next Monday morning with low temperatures below zero.
Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/...
Mainly light snows over the taf sites this evening will tend to
diminish overnight as drier air mves into the area. In gnrl...expect
mainly MVFR ceilings and visibilities int he light snow. Late tonight and after
daybrk Tuesday...band of heavier snow associated with the deepening
coastal storm may push back wwrd into the area and give a period of lower
ceilings and visibilities...with occasional IFR conds possible. With the deepening
low...winds will tend to increases through the period out of the
north...gusting well above 20 kts on Tuesday.
Tuesday ngt-Wed...lingering lake effect -shsn and MVFR ceilings possible
mainly New York terminals into Wednesday morning...otherwise mainly VFR.
Thursday and Friday...restrictions from -sn.
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST Tuesday for paz048.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for paz040-072.
New York...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST Tuesday for nyz062.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for nyz046-057.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 am EST Tuesday for nyz015-016-