Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
344 am MDT sun Jul 5 2015

Short through the south a middle-level
circulation is working up through Nevada and has increased middle and
upper level moisture over southeast Oregon and SW Idaho. To the north a
short wave trough is entering the Pacific northwest and will track along the
U.S-Canadian border today. The increased moisture...lift and
instability from these features will raise the chance of showers
and thunderstorms across southeast Oregon and SW Idaho through this
evening. The best chance for showers and storms remains across the
higher terrain of southern Harney and Malheur counties and south
of the Snake River. The northern shortwave trough will aide in
isolated development over the west central and Boise Mountains in the
snake plain...areas east of Mountain Home will keep a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Gusty outflow
winds remain the greatest threat from showers/storms with speeds
up to 45 miles per hour possible. Both of these systems exit eastward
overnight with a lingering chance of showers along the Nevada border
through Monday morning. With light flow aloft there is little
change to the airmass on Monday resulting in a continued chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain near the
Nevada border. For today the clouds and cooling aloft drop high
temperatures 4-8 degrees across northern zones and 8-12 degrees
along the Nevada border. Less cloud cover on Monday will allow some
rebound in temperatures over southern zones with little change elsewhere.

Long term...Monday night through Sunday...Monday night the
region will be on the interface between monsoonal moisture to the
south and a cool trough to the northeast impacting the upper
Midwest. The cool upper level trough will move east Wednesday
allowing monsoonal moisture to move northward into the forecast
area with afternoon showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday mainly over the higher terrain. A weak upper level trough
off the California coast will move across the region sometime
Friday into Saturday allowing enough forcing for showers and
thunderstorms across the entire forecast area. By Sunday dry
southwesterly flow develops as the upper level ridge tries to
reestablish itself into the Great Basin next week. Temperatures
will gradually cool to normal by Friday.


Aviation...VFR. Broken-overcast middle-high cloud decks. Isolated showers
along Nevada border this morning. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop in southern Oregon and southwest Idaho
terrain surrounding Snake River Plain this afternoon. Surface winds
southwesterly 10-20kt over higher terrain...12kt or less in valley
locations. Gusty and erratic surface winds up to 40kt near
thunderstorms this afternoon. Winds aloft up through 10k feet
mean sea level...west-northwest 10-20kt.


Boi watches/warnings/advisories...




Short term...dg
long term....ka

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations