Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
837 PM MDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015
Discussion...a very dry air mass has settled into the
region...resulting in clear skies which will persist through
Wednesday. Temperatures will be cool to start the day on
Wednesday...then warm into the 80s during the afternoon. Although
the temperatures will be warmer than today...highs will be below
normal. Winds will remain light.
Aviation...VFR. Clear skies. Light winds up through 10k feet mean sea level.
short term...tonight through Thursday...northwesterly flow
weakens overnight tonight as the flow becomes zonal on Wednesday.
Upper level ridge begins to strengthen on Wednesday over The Four
Corners region which will begin a warming trend through Thursday.
Temperatures in the middle to upper 80s on Wednesday will reach to
a few degrees above normal on Thursday.
Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday...models maintain the
very warm upper level ridge over the western U.S. Through the long
term...with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Monsoon
moisture entrained into the ridge circulation is expected to fuel
isolated thunderstorms starting late Friday in eastern Oregon and
spreading into Idaho on Sunday. Due to uncertainty we are
weighting thunderstorm distribution toward climatology. Besides
eastern Oregon favored areas include the Nevada Idaho border...the
Magic Valley...and the central Idaho mountains.
previous short term...jds
previous long term....jt/jc