Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
835 PM MDT Friday Jul 25 2014
Discussion...clear skies prevail across southeast Oregon and SW Idaho
this evening...and will continue overnight. Skies will remain
clear on Saturday as the upper ridge continues to build. This will
also bring warmer temperatures to the region with valley highs
back above 90f. No updates.
Aviation...VFR...except for smoke in the vicinity of wildfires.
Light surface winds less than 10 knots. Westerly winds aloft 10 to
15 knots up through 10k feet mean sea level.
Weekend outlook...VFR with light surface winds. Clear on Saturday
then increasing middle-high level clouds on Sunday. Slight chance of
thunderstorms after 18z Sunday south of ktwf.
short term...rapid warming through Sunday as upper ridge builds
nwwd from the southern rockies. Monsoon moisture will spread middle/high
clouds into southern Idaho zones Sunday afternoon with a slight chance of
thunderstorms late Sunday in southern Twin Falls County. However...
convective parameters will be weak until after 00z Monday. Clear
skies and dry air tonight will allow min temperatures to drop to the upper
30s and 40s in the mountains...upper 40s and 50s in the valleys...
I.E. Not quite as cool as last night. Mins Saturday night will be
another 5 to 7 degrees warmer than tonight. Maximum temperatures Saturday will
be 6 to 10 degrees warmer than today...and another 3 to 5 degrees
warmer Sunday. Light diurnal winds.
Long term...Sunday night through Friday...upper level ridge over
the western U.S. Through the extend period will transport monsoonal
moisture into the region. Latest European model (ecmwf) and GFS guidance showing more
moisture and higher probability of precipitation for the middle of next week than the
previous runs. Have increased probability of precipitation Tuesday through Wednesday
especially across SW Idaho. Should see afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms through Friday. Temperatures will be about 5
degrees above normal Monday then close to normal with clouds and
precipitation Tuesday through Thursday.
previous short term...lc
previous long term....jds/ab