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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
614 am MST sun Mar 1 2015

Discussion...light snow flurries have developed in Ada County and
western Elmore County this have updated the forecast
to reflect this. No major accumulations are expected...and the flurries
and cloud cover are expected to dissipate by 9 am MST.


Aviation...VFR clear except areas of stratus south of an
Idaho City to Lakeview line...and within 75 miles kboi MVFR ceiling/visible
in light snow or flurries until 18z Sunday. VFR mostly clear or high
clouds 18z Sunday-18z Monday across southeast Oregon/SW Idaho. Variable
winds to 10 knots surface and aloft through this evening.


Previous discussion...
short through Monday...snow showers have
tapered off this morning and cloud cover will continue to dissipate
through late morning. Another shortwave upper level trough is
expected to move south within the northerly flow and arrive near the
area on Monday morning. Models continue to trend this shortwave as
splitting around Idaho...with one moist portion continuing south
along the California coast...and the colder portion remaining east
of The Divide. Therefore...precipitation chances remain confined to the
Idaho central mountains most of Monday. However...a mostly dry
surface front is still expected to move from northwest to southeast later
Monday...which will increase winds and usher in some cooler air.

Long term...Monday night through Saturday...splitting upper trough
Monday night will be followed by cold north flow aloft through
Wednesday and surface high pressure through the weekend. At the
onset of the high Tuesday gusty winds are expected. Temperatures
will moderate and the upper flow becomes northwest and heights/thicknesses
rise Thursday. Ec shows more amplitude with ridging next weekend but
both models have the Main Ridge axis offshore. Went with an ec/gefs
blend which brings highs back above normal next around
60 at Boise next Sunday. After Wednesday the long term average out
to dry with light winds and mostly dry conditions the possible
exception being NE Valley County.


Boi watches/warnings/advisories...




previous short term...ep
previous long term....vm

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