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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
234 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA
AND THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM. THERE IS A DECENT DENVER CYCLONE
GOING RIGHT NOW. THE RADAR INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE
LINE STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WELD COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE LINE HAS MOVED VERY
LITTLE THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. EAST OF IT PRETTY STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT WINDS ARE FEATURED WEST
OF THE LINE AND ON INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA TONIGHT. WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED ON SATURDAY. WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK TO BE DRAINAGE TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS...
MAYBE ENHANCED A TAD FOR THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
FIELD EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...THE WIND FIELD OVER THE PLAINS MAY
BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE. FOR MOISTURE...BASICALLY THERE WILL
BE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND HERE AND THERE FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS.
THE SATELLITE PICTURES CONFIRM THIS. THERE IS NO LOW OR MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE HAD ON THE MODELS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON
LATE. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY'S HIGHS
LOOK TO BE 5 TO 9 C WARMER THAN THE CURRENT READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL...WITH PCPN FAVORING ZONE
31 SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
SO OROGRAPHICALLY...ZONES 31 AND 33 HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD OVER THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL DROPPING TO
AROUND 6K FT AGL MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF SHALLOW
UPSLOPE MONDAY MORNING...THE WIND WEAKENS AND BECOMES NNWLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE APPEAR LIGHT AT
THIS TIME...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. MONDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...A DRY NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER COLORADO WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST. IF ANY
PCPN DEVELOPS...THERE COULD BE SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
DEVELOPING IN THE ZONES 31 AND 33 AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE AIRPORT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
THE NEAR FUTURE. THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE NOT FAR EAST OF
THE AIRPORT BUT ARE MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS MOVING WEST. DECENT
DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
MORE SOUTHEASTERLIES OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH A DENVER CYCLONE
AGAIN. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOOP
LONG TERM....COOP
AVIATION.....KOOP

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