Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO DROP THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST...AND LOWERED THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
SHOULD STILL SEE THE TREND OF DECREASING/DIMINISHING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOWARDS SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHOWERS DECREASED ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FIRST BAND
THAT HAS SHIFTED INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS IS FORMING AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN CO
CONTINUES IT TRACK TO THE EAST. WL STICK WITH THE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS PCPN PERSISTING THROUGH 07-09Z THEN DIMINISHING. WL
STICK TO MIDNIGHT IN THE ZONES...WITH DECREASING POPS THEREAFTER.
WL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE SWITCHING WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO WNW
BRINGING COOLER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DECREASING WET BULB ZEROS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE
BROUGHT SNOW DOWN TO 8000-8500 FT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHERE
YOU HAVE DECENT QG VV AND UPSLOPE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL END AT MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. 

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR FROM A DISORGANIZED FRONT THAT WILL DROP DOWN INTO
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS DECENT LIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LAPSE RATES OVER DENVER OF 8.6 C/KM BUT DUE TO LACK OF
MUCH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS WITH WIND SPEEDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE PLAINS AND
40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING
BY MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

INITIALLY...A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A
STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT MARCHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z...BUT BOTH MODELS ALSO LIMIT ANY
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ONLY A FEW HOURS OF
RISING VERTICAL MOTIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL MENTION ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING...IN CASE A
LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS IN WYOMING. THE COOL AIR MOVING INTO THE
STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY COULD BE NEARING THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME...ONLY THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
THAN 32. AFTER FRIDAY MORNING...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING OVER COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
DRY AND MILD WILL BE THE PRIMARY MESSAGE. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

MVFR CIGS...WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AT
DENVER FOR ANY RAINS SHOWERS THAT REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. SOME
BANDED RAIN SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF DENVER AND WILL BE MOVING INTO KDEN. BEST WINDOW WILL BE
THROUGH 06Z THEN INCREASING STABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FOCUS
FOR PCPN SHIFTING TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER 06Z. WITH SOME MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND TOWARD 12Z HAVE
OPTED TO DROP VCFG FM THE TAF BUT STILL SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS
AROUND.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...COOPER

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations