Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
1159 am CDT Friday may 24 2013
Discussion...convective complex has stayed together and moved
further southeast than expected...and is approaching Zapata County
at this time. While most of the activity will skirt along the very
northern edges of the County Warning Area...some detached convection is possible
mainly west of 281 this afternoon. Have issued update for
increased rain chances and lowered high temperatures areawide. Main issue
with any thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall.
Aviation...sky cover will remain scattered to broken from 3500 to 4000 feet
through the afternoon as low morning ceilings and showers have
dissipated. Cloud cover from thunderstorms approaching from the
west may reach kmfe late this afternoon and evening...but reaching
that far southeast does not yet look likely enough to warrant taf
changes. Low cloud deck will increase again overnight down to
1500..similar to the last 2 nights. Another breezy day tomorrow
with only rain chances from streamer showers just after sunrise at
khrl and kbro.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 354 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/
Short term /today through Saturday/...500 mb high pressure will
likely remain centered nearly directly over the Rio Grande Valley
and deep south Texas through the period...producing dry weather
with very warm temperatures. The Texas commission on environmental
quality continues to expect degraded air quality today...with the
air quality index improving to good for Saturday and Sunday. Thus...
have left haze in the forecast for today through tonight...and have
left it out for Saturday.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...500 mb ridge
amplifies across the region as a trough deepens over the western
United States through early next week. This will result in tranquil
weather and very warm to hot conditions across deep south Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley. The upper ridge and trough gradually
moves to the east by middle week. Winds will begin to increase by
Memorial Day as surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico
interacts with strengthening low pressure over the Central Plains
into West Texas. Breezy conditions expected to continue through
late next week. High temperatures will range from the low to middle
80s at the beaches...upper 80s to the middle 90s in the Rio Grande
Valley and the upper 90s west. Lows will be the in low to middle 70s
with upper 70s possible near the coast. Generally dry conditions
expected across the area through the forecast period...but a few
streamer showers can not be ruled out across the coastal areas.
Marine...today through Saturday...buoy 42020 reported east-
southeast winds around 12 knots gusting to around 14 knots with seas
of 3 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 02 CDT/07 UTC. Persistent
surface high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce
generally moderate winds and seas along the Lower Texas coast for
the period. Small craft exercise caution and Small Craft Advisory is
not expected to be needed.
Saturday night through Tuesday...moderate winds and seas expected
to continue through the latter part of the weekend. Surface high
pressure interacts with developing low pressure over the Central
Plains into West Texas. This should result in increasing winds and
building seas for early next week. Small craft to exercise caution
or small craft advisories may be needed Memorial Day through
Tuesday.
&&
Bro watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
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