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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
248 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

Short term /now through Sunday night/...ample sunshine combined
with precipitable water values around 2 inches...light southeast
winds and weakness aloft...should result in an active sea-breeze
this afternoon. However...current bro radar indicates very limited
convection so far this afternoon. Elsewhere...current bro radar also
shows isolated showers across the Lower Texas Gulf waters this
afternoon. This activity is being generated by an upper low across
the Mexican state of San Luis Potosi as seen on water vapor
imagery. Both the NAM/GFS continue to move this 250mb feature
farther south tonight. A 500mb ridge across the central Gulf Coast
states extending across Texas will continue to provide subsidence
across south Texas through Sunday night.

Partly cloudy skies tonight with low temperatures generally in the
upper 70s to around 80. Isolated streamer showers possible across
the Gulf waters late tonight. Hot and mainly dry on Sunday with high
temperatures generally ranging from the lower 90s along the
beaches...middle to upper 90s across the coastal counties to a few
degrees above the century mark out west. Higher dew points will
result in heat index values of 105 to 110 for Sunday. Expected light
to moderate southeast under partly cloudy skies. Sunday night should
be a repeat of tonight/Sunday morning with overnight low
temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80s under mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. Streamer showers across the Gulf waters will
also be possible late Sunday night as low level moisture continues
across the area.

Long term /Monday through Saturday/...500mb ridge across the
south central and southeast United States will continue to provide
subsidence across south Texas Monday and Tuesday before a 500mb
low/inverted trough develops across the northwest Gulf Coast
Tuesday and moves across the Texas coast Wednesday. This feature
should provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the rest of the week into the weekend as moisture
increases across south Texas as a 500mb shortwave trough moves into
the Central Plains Thursday. There are some differences between
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) on the timing of the 500mb trough but low to middle
level moisture is prognosticated to remain high enough across south Texas for
isolated convection to develop Thursday through Saturday.

now through Sunday night...latest marine observations indicate light
southeast winds along the Lower Texas coast with seas around 2.3
feet at buoy 42020. Surface high pressure across the western Gulf of
Mexico will maintain light to moderate southeast winds through the
period. Isolated showers possible across the Lower Texas coastal
waters tonight through Sunday night. Seas of 1 to 3 feet can be
expected through the period. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
unlikely through Sunday night.

Monday through Thursday...light to moderate southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Monday and Tuesday before
becoming light and variable Wednesday as the surface ridge over
the western Gulf of Mexico Monday weakens Tuesday into Wednesday and
the ridge over the southeast United States prevails. The pressure
gradient will remain weak across the Lower Texas coast through
Thursday as a result.

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Bayview/Port Isabel 80 95 80 93 / 20 20 10 10
Brownsville 78 97 78 96 / 20 20 10 10
Harlingen 78 99 77 97 / 20 20 10 10
McAllen 79 102 79 101 / 10 10 10 10
Rio Grande City 79 102 79 103 / 10 10 10 10
South Padre Island 80 90 80 90 / 20 20 10 10

Bro watches/warnings/advisories...


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