Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
143 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Short term /now through Friday night/...high pressure will
filter south into the area tonight...providing a brief drying
trend through 36 hours...with precipitable water decreasing to around an inch
from the current inch and a half. A weak 500 mb ridge will move
overhead through Friday and the cap will erode but not disappear
completely. Lows in the 60s tonight will become upper 70s to lower
80s on Friday. Farther to the west...a middle level trough will move
over Southern California from the eastern Pacific tonight. Middle
level flow will become southwest Friday to Friday night and
Pacific moisture will result in thunderstorms over the Mexican mountains
Friday night. The trough axis may not dig far enough south to push
thunderstorms into the rgv...but convection looks likely farther north
over the Rio Grande plains. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the
middle 60s once again. Kept an ongoing mention of general isolated
showers in the forecast through the short term. The pattern aloft
is progressive enough and supported somewhat by the subtropical
jet such that a slightly unsettled pattern will be the rule.



Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...the 500 mb ridge will be
exiting the region on Saturday...with the next trough approaching
for the weekend. At the surface...high pressure will be settling
across the Gulf of Mexico...returning winds to the southeast
Saturday morning. This will begin to increase low level moisture in the
region. The peak of the instability from the 500 mb trough will arrive
on Sunday morning...and will attempt to tap some of this moisture.
This will lead to a few shower in the vicinity Sunday. These will
not be an all day event...more of a splash and dash shower. This
midlevel trough weakens and drifts east early next week...with
stronger ridging arriving. This will keep any impulses well away
from the region. At the surface...southeast flow continues to bring
moisture into the region...and will help temperatures increase
slowly each day into the upper 80s. No rain chances are expected
until maybe the end of next week.



&&

Marine...
now through Friday night...light to moderate winds will continue...
but will back slightly to east northeast as high pressure filters in
over the northwest Gulf from the north. Wave heights will continue
in the moderate range...but could meet exercise caution criteria at
times. Isolated showers will be on again off again tonight but will
taper off on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...modest southeast winds will continue on
Saturday 10 to 15 knots creating seas of 3 to 4 feet. Low pressure
developing in the Central Plains will tighten the gradient
Saturday night into Sunday...increasing winds to 15 to 20
knots...which will gradually increase seas to 4 to 5 feet. The
area of low pressure moves to the NE Sunday night...allowing winds
to relax into Monday back down to around 10 knots. Not expecting
any advisories for the weekend...but some caution may been urged
for the day Sunday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Bayview/Port Isabel 68 76 65 80 / 20 20 10 10
Brownsville 67 78 65 81 / 20 20 10 20
Harlingen 66 80 64 83 / 20 20 20 20
McAllen 67 82 65 85 / 20 20 20 20
Rio Grande City 67 83 64 86 / 20 20 20 20
South Padre Island 69 74 66 77 / 20 20 10 10

&&

Bro watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

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