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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
1225 am CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

Aviation...only minor adjustments to the previous set of tafs.
Relevant portion of previous discussion follows:

VFR conditions to prevail much of the night before the low level
moisture initiates a stratus deck prior to sunrise. MVFR ceilings and
tempo conditions of MVFR visibility a few hours either side of sunrise
before a typical VFR cumulus field spreads throughout the region.
Southeast winds relax tonight with a 25 knot low level jet
developing. This jet to mix to the surface middle to late Saturday
morning producing gusts up to 25 knots.
&&

Previous discussion... /issued 643 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015/

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...daytime cumulus field slowly dissipating with the cool
of the evening. VFR conditions to prevail much of the night before
the low level moisture initiates a stratus deck prior to sunrise.
MVFR ceilings and tempo conditions of MVFR visibility a few hours either
side of sunrise before a typical VFR cumulus field spreads
throughout the region. Southeast winds relax tonight with a 25
knot low level jet developing. This jet to mix to the surface
middle to late Saturday morning producing gusts up to 25 knots.

Previous discussion... /issued 242 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015/

Short term /now through Saturday night/...the tail edge of the
500 mb trough remains in place across the eastern half of Texas...
keeping the rain chances from completely ending...but also keeping
the blazing heat away from the region. Gulf moisture continues to
move nwwd into the region...but is not overly deep. A brief surge
may reach south Texas early Saturday...bringing a few more showers...
but for the most part...most of deep south Texas will remain dry
through the next 36 hours. Cloud cover will be lower out west
tomorrow...so temperatures will again inch upward into the upper
90s west of us281. Most cloud cover will be dissipated by sunset
Saturday evening...which should allow for good fireworks viewing
areawide.

Long term /Sunday through Friday/...a broad height field will
extend from west to east across the southern United States on
Sunday...with high pressure over the southeast United States and
the Gulf of Mexico. This will result in seasonal weather. Daily
precipitable water will range from around 1.5 to 1.75 inches...right around
normal...yet generally enough to support weak sea breeze showers.
The synoptic flow may also bring isolate overnight streamer showers
up from the south. Despite these possibilities...rain chance
probability will be low and will be advertised as silent.

Lee side troughing will develop along The Rockies Sunday night...
which will support moderate as opposed to light winds locally.
The lower pressure will hang on into middle week even as middle level
ridging builds over the southwest and into the High Plains. By
middle to late week...591 dm heights will stretch from west to east
across northern Mexico through Texas and the lower southeast.

In the meantime...some unsettled weather will persist over the
southwest Gulf and northeast Mexican coast...but the significance
will be muted. A mix of clouds and sun will be forecast through
the week...with near to slightly above normal temperatures.

Marine now through Saturday night...winds were slowly inching
upwards this morning but have now steadied in the 10 to 15 knot
range. Seas have been able to relax slightly in the 3 to 4 foot
range. Winds will remain generally 10 to 15 knots through the next
36 hours...continuing to produce seas around 4 feet. A few showers
are possible around dawn tomorrow...but will swiftly move off to
the north.

Sunday through Wednesday...broad 1016 to 1020 mb high pressure
will maintain a presence over the Gulf...resulting in moderate
southeast winds and moderate seas. Slightly stronger winds will
develop on the Gulf at night and on the Laguna during the day...
with small craft exercise caution conditions possible. Isolated
streamer showers will be possible late each night.
&&

Bro watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

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