Area forecast discussion...updated National Weather Service Brownsville Texas 1159 am CDT Friday may 24 2013 Discussion...convective complex has stayed together and moved further southeast than expected...and is approaching Zapata County at this time. While most of the activity will skirt along the very northern edges of the County Warning Area...some detached convection is possible mainly west of 281 this afternoon. Have issued update for increased rain chances and lowered high temperatures areawide. Main issue with any thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall. Aviation...sky cover will remain scattered to broken from 3500 to 4000 feet through the afternoon as low morning ceilings and showers have dissipated. Cloud cover from thunderstorms approaching from the west may reach kmfe late this afternoon and evening...but reaching that far southeast does not yet look likely enough to warrant taf changes. Low cloud deck will increase again overnight down to 1500..similar to the last 2 nights. Another breezy day tomorrow with only rain chances from streamer showers just after sunrise at khrl and kbro. && Previous discussion... /issued 354 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/ Short term /today through Saturday/...500 mb high pressure will likely remain centered nearly directly over the Rio Grande Valley and deep south Texas through the period...producing dry weather with very warm temperatures. The Texas commission on environmental quality continues to expect degraded air quality today...with the air quality index improving to good for Saturday and Sunday. Thus... have left haze in the forecast for today through tonight...and have left it out for Saturday. Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...500 mb ridge amplifies across the region as a trough deepens over the western United States through early next week. This will result in tranquil weather and very warm to hot conditions across deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The upper ridge and trough gradually moves to the east by middle week. Winds will begin to increase by Memorial Day as surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico interacts with strengthening low pressure over the Central Plains into West Texas. Breezy conditions expected to continue through late next week. High temperatures will range from the low to middle 80s at the beaches...upper 80s to the middle 90s in the Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s west. Lows will be the in low to middle 70s with upper 70s possible near the coast. Generally dry conditions expected across the area through the forecast period...but a few streamer showers can not be ruled out across the coastal areas. Marine...today through Saturday...buoy 42020 reported east- southeast winds around 12 knots gusting to around 14 knots with seas of 3 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 02 CDT/07 UTC. Persistent surface high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will produce generally moderate winds and seas along the Lower Texas coast for the period. Small craft exercise caution and Small Craft Advisory is not expected to be needed. Saturday night through Tuesday...moderate winds and seas expected to continue through the latter part of the weekend. Surface high pressure interacts with developing low pressure over the Central Plains into West Texas. This should result in increasing winds and building seas for early next week. Small craft to exercise caution or small craft advisories may be needed Memorial Day through Tuesday. && Bro watches/warnings/advisories... Texas...none. GM...none. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://www.Weather.Gov/Brownsville 64/60