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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
630 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.

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Aviation...shower activity is weakening across the region as
daytime heating weakens. Showers will continue for a couple more
hours around kbro and khrl. Kmfe is being threatened by another
thunderstorm to the northwest...which will need to be monitored for the
possibility of reaching near the Airport. A few more showers are
possible right around sunrise for kbro and khrl...similar to this
morning. Another round of thunderstorm activity is forecast during
peak heating tomorrow...with low ceilings...lowered visible due to
downpours...and gusty winds.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 419 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015/

Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...outflow and seabreeze
dominated thunderstorms have been firing across the region this
afternoon. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to develop
and move inland through the afternoon. Precipitable water values this morning were
above 2 inches...and steering flow was light from the south. With
trough axis in the region...areas of heavy rainfall and gusty winds
will be an issue. Convection will end this evening for the land
areas...while redeveloping offshore overnight. Some showers could
move into eastern Cameron County before dawn...similar to this
morning.

Trough axis remains steady across south Texas tomorrow...with
increased diffluence aloft helping to add further lift to the
atmosphere. Showers and thunderstorms will again be a concern
through the day. Models show initiation starting across Cameron
County then moving inland during the afternoon. Have upped probability of precipitation for
tomorrow to high end chance...and pushed temperatures down a touch for more
widespread rain and cloud cover.

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...500mb low/shear axis
across East Texas and Lousiana extending into the western Gulf of
Mexico Wednesday will move little if any through Friday. This will continue
to provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms across portions
of the County Warning Area through the rest of the week. With the abundant low to
middle level moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico...the threat
of heavy rainfall will exist especially across the coastal
sections of deep south Texas. The rest of the forecast period
depends on the weak 500mb ridging developing across the south
central United States through the weekend and the 500mb
low/inverted trough across the western Gulf of Mexico and eastern
Mexico. Will continue to mention a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the coastal sections of the County Warning Area through the
weekend as moisture lingers across the area.

Marine...
now through Tuesday night...weak high pressure will support light
to moderate southeast winds and low seas. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase now through Tuesday due to instability
aloft and increased moisture moving up from south of the area.

Wednesday through Saturday...light to moderate southeast winds
will prevail across the coastal waters Wednesday with weak high
pressure across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and a surface trough
across the central United States. The pressure gradient will
remain relatively weak across the Lower Texas coast Thursday
through Saturday. Light to moderate southeast winds will prevail
across the coastal waters through the rest of the week into the
weekend.

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Bro watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&

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