Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
244 PM CST Monday Nov 24 2014
Short term /now through Tuesday night/...middle and upper level
trough is continuing to move southeastward towards the area but
essentially all column moisture has shifted eastward. The result
is a mild afternoon with cool northeast winds keeping temperatures
lower...despite sunny skies.
Tonight...a cool night with light winds and clear skies.
Temperatures will fall a little farther tonight than they have in
recent days with surface dewpoints in the middle 30s. Lows will be
in the low 40s in the north to near 50 along the coast.
Tuesday...cool northerly breeze will continue through most of the
day but the cold advection will be weaker. Under full sunshine maximum
temperatures will be a little warmer than today with highs around 70
Tuesday night...south winds will begin late in the overnight but
little in the way of warm air or moisture advection is anticipated.
Another pretty cool/chilly night is forecast with lows around 40 to
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...500mb trough across the
eastern United States and 500mb ridge across the western U.S.
Coast Wednesday will provide subsidence across south Texas
Wednesday before a weak 500mb shortwave trough develops across
northern Mexico/West Texas Thursday. Low to middle level moisture will
remain low across south Texas into the northern Gulf of Mexico
through Friday so not much in the way in rain chances are expected
through the rest of the week into the weekend. Both the GFS and
European model (ecmwf) forecast some isolated convection across the coastal sections of
the County Warning Area Saturday through Monday. Will mention a slight chance of
showers across the Lower Texas coast Monday as the onshore flow
allows sufficient moisture to increase across the area.
now through Tuesday night...a Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the Gulf waters through tonight...due to strong north
winds and rough seas. Wind speeds will decrease tonight...but seas
will likely not have quite enough time to become more moderate
before another push of high pressure increases wind speeds again
on Tuesday. Rough seas will likely continue through Tuesday before
more moderate conditions develop Tuesday night.
Wednesday through Saturday...light and variable winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Wednesday as high pressure prevails over
the northwest Gulf Coast. Winds will veer to the southeast
Thursday as the surface ridge moves eastward. Light to moderate
southeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico
Thursday and Friday before the pressure gradient increases
Saturday with low pressure over the northern plains and high
pressure across southeast United States.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Bayview/Port Isabel 51 70 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
Brownsville 51 71 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Harlingen 48 71 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
McAllen 47 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Grande City 47 70 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
South Padre Island 57 70 54 72 / 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Tuesday for gmz150-155-170-
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