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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
251 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Short term /now through Saturday night/...a weak cold front is
dropping slowly south through The Hill Country this afternoon and
will push into south central Texas where it should hang up for the
night. As of 19z...cumulus field starting to develop and progress
southward with this boundary. Expect this to reach the northern
portion of the County Warning Area later in the evening as the front is moving
slower than expected. Most of the activity is expected to remain
north of the populated areas of the Lower Valley through the
night. Earlier today a slightly drier air moved into the area from
the north shifting winds more south and southwest keeping a
parallel flow along the coast limiting any sea breeze this
afternoon. A few cumulus are developing but very limited moisture
will limit any convection for the remainder of the afternoon along
the coast. Otherwise...high temperatures will be above normal with ample
sun... conditions should settle down a bit tonight...with little
forward progress of the front...and with winds overall weakening
and veering to light east. Low temperatures will be in the middle to upper

Saturday...the front will progress southward into the County Warning Area and with
the daytime instability combined with high precipitable waters across the area
will help storms to develop over the County Warning Area. Left the inherited 30
percent for tomorrow. Lighter winds with a weak pressure gradient
will be expected tomorrow...but a sea breeze boundary may develop
and could play into the mix by providing a second boundary to
interact with the front. Rain fall efficiency could be enhanced
Saturday afternoon if stronger storms develop and with storm
movement in general expected to be slow. High temperatures Saturday
were restrained a degree or two lower over those of today based on
slightly more generous cloud cover.

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...pattern across the US
continues to evolve through the upcoming week as the blocking
pattern finally releases upstream. This will allow the East Coast
trough to weaken and the large western ridge to break down early
next week. The pool of moisture remaining from whatever is left of
the frontal zone to the north will likely drift southward early
next week as winds aloft shift more northerly. This will keep a
slight chance for daytime seabreeze showers in the forecast for
Sunday. Some drier air mixes into the region for Monday and
Tuesday...limiting the amount of seabreeze convection but no
completely shutting it down. The next agitator for the local
weather will be the midlevel low spinning in the western
Caribbean. This will slowly drift westward into the Bay of
Campeche early next week...before being wrapped into the weakening
ridge to the west. This will pull its instability and deeper
moisture northward into south Texas roughly
Wednesday/Thursday...with a better shot for seabreeze showers. The
trough slowly drifts westward late in the week pulling the moisture and
instability further inland.


now through Saturday night...light to moderate southeast winds
will prevail this afternoon...with low a light pressure
gradient remains over the northwest Gulf. Winds will weaken
tonight and Saturday...becoming a weak frontal boundary
sags south into the area and hangs up. The main concern with the
boundary will be the potential for marine showers and
thunderstorms...which will mainly affect the northern zones late
tonight...but may develop farther south on Saturday.

Sunday into Tuesday...tranquil winds and seas will bring great
boating weather for the latter half of the weekend through the
middle of next week. Seas will generally stay 2 feet or
less...with southeast winds remaining below 15 knots. The main
marine hazard will be the possibility of brief shower activity
each day.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Bayview/Port Isabel 79 91 78 92 / 10 20 20 30
Brownsville 78 94 78 93 / 10 20 20 30
Harlingen 78 95 78 95 / 10 20 20 30
McAllen 79 98 78 98 / 10 30 20 30
Rio Grande City 79 100 78 100 / 20 30 20 30
South Padre Island 80 88 80 88 / 10 20 20 30


Bro watches/warnings/advisories...


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