Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
731 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will continue to gradually build into the north
country today and persist over the area through Thursday night. This
feature will bring plenty of sunshine to the region along with dry
weather and a gradual warming trend. A weak front will approach the
area on Friday which could touch off a few showers...but most areas
will remain dry with some areas seeing highs in the lower 80s.
&&
Near term /until 8 PM this evening/...
as of 725 am EDT Wednesday...still dealing with some fog over the
eastern half of Vermont and this should last for only a couple
more hours. Otherwise...relatively quiet weather will exist today
as high pressure builds into the region. There may be some shallow
cumulus forming over the mountains...otherwise a good deal of
sunshine is expected. Low level thermal profile suggests high
temperatures will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s...very similar to
Tuesday. Northerly pressure gradient will exist...but winds will
generally be 10 miles per hour or less.
&&
Short term /8 PM this evening through Friday/...
as of 415 am EDT Wednesday...high pressure settles in right over the
area tonight and persist through Thursday night. Dry weather will
continue with plenty of sunshine expected during this period. Low
level thermal profile has a slight warming trend...thus looking at
high temperatures in the 70s on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary
tries to move down from Canada on Friday...but remains far enough
north and west to not have a significant impact on the area. While
there might be some isolated showers...most of the region will
remain dry. Have only mentioned a slight chance of showers in the
area for northern areas. Low level thermal pattern continues to
show rising temperatures...so high temperatures on Friday will be
in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
&&
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 415 am EDT Wednesday...no big changes from previous thinking
in regards to the overall pattern for the extended period with
the forecast highlights continuing to be increasing heat and
humidity along with chances for afternoon showers and storms.
Upper level ridge across the central Continental U.S. Friday night breaks
down into a fast westerly flow across much of the northern Continental U.S.
Through the weekend and into early next week. At the same
time...Bermuda high becomes well established across the southeast
and into the Middle-Atlantic States allowing sub-tropical moisture to
feed northward into the northeast. Thus...we continue to expect
temperatures and humidity to slowly climb each day through the
period starting with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
Saturday...and reaching into the middle to upper 80s by Wednesday.
Warm nights can also be expected with lows generally in the upper
50s to upper 60s...with dewpoints likely holding only a few
degrees below min temperatures making it muggy as well. In regards to
precipitation potential...given the proximity of fast westerlies just
north of the border through the period we'll likely see some
shortwave energy pass near or through the btv County Warning Area. This...combined
with ample afternoon instability from the increasing heat and
humidity will likely spark some showers and storms...but certainly
too far out to time such small features so will continue to
mention slight to low chance probability of precipitation during the daylight hours each
day...lowering during the overnight periods with the loss of
daytime heating.
&&
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through 12z Thursday...surface high pressure over the Great Lakes
will continue to bring VFR conditions to the btv airspace through
the period. Clear skies this morning will give way to some diurnal
cumulus from 15-00z before clearing again tonight. Generally light
north to northwest winds are expected through the period...slightly
stronger in the Champlain Valley.
Outlook 12z Wednesday through Sunday...
12z Wednesday through 06z Friday...VFR under high pressure with
patchy late night/early morning fog possible 06-12z each
morning...with the greatest potential at kslk/kmpv.
06z Friday through Sunday...generally VFR with isolated/scattered
afternoon showers/thunderstorms possible.
&&
Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...none.
New York...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...evenson
near term...evenson
short term...evenson
long term...lahiff
aviation...lahiff
