Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
816 am EST Tuesday Dec 10 2013
a cold front will move through the region later this morning and
early afternoon. Drier high pressure will build in tonight and
Wednesday. A dry cold front will come through Wednesday
night...followed by another cold dry high pressure air mass
building in Thursday. Moisture return expected Friday night and
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
shallow low level wedge remains in place over the western/central
portion of the County Warning Area this morning. Wedge boundary/warm front just
east of Columbia and north of the Augusta area. Some light rain
and drizzle in progress. Main cold front still just to our northwest.
Models keep main upper energy to our north. A band of showers
expected with the front. Models suggest front moving through the
forecast area this morning...pushing east of our forecast area by early afternoon. Ahead
of the cold front...wedge boundary/warm front to move north ahead of
it...aided by increasing SW boundary layer winds. Patchy dense fog
will continue to be possible early this morning...mainly north.
Breezy conditions projected late this morning and early this
afternoon. Think winds will generally remain below lake Wind
Advisory criteria for our forecast area.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/...
fair...seasonably cool and dry weather expected. High pressure
will build in behind the front tonight into early Wednesday...then
weaken late Wednesday ahead of a dry reinforcing cold front that
will move through Wednesday night. Another cool dry high pressure
air mass will build in Thursday.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
GFS/ecwmf appear to be a good agreement with upper energy moving
east across the southern tier of states late week into the weekend.
Surface high pressure to shift to our east Friday...with moisture
return/isentropic lift spreading showers into the region Friday
night/Saturday with frontal passage late Sat nt/early Sunday. High pressure
expected to build in behind the front for late Sunday into early
next week. A blend of latest HPC and MOS guidance with ongoing
forecast looks good on most elements.
Aviation /13z Tuesday through Saturday/...
a warm front will move north of all of the taf sites by 14z with
southerly winds increasing to around 10 to 15 knots. A cold front
will move through the area in the 14z-16z time-frame. MVFR/IFR
conditions will continue across the taf sites ahead of the cold
front. VFR conditions will return as winds shift westerly behind
the front 15z-17z. A period of gusty winds will occur behind the
front through 22z. After 22z there will be clearing skies and
diminishing winds as high pressure builds in bringing drier air.
Winds at 2000 feet are estimated to be southwest around 45 knots.
Have included low level winds shear in the tafs through 16z.
Extended aviation outlook...high pressure will bring VFR conditions
tonight through Friday. Another frontal system may bring