Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
640 am EDT sun Aug 2 2015
a weak pressure trough will remain in the forecast area through
Tuesday. Deeper moisture will remain suppressed east and south of
the area. Above normal temperatures expected through middle week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the upper-level pattern features a ridge out west with a broad trough
from the Great Lakes to the East Coast. Water vapor satellite
imagery showed dry air aloft across the midlands and csra.
Weak frontal boundary central South Carolina/csra early this
morning with shallow moisture across the area. Water vapor images
indicate very dry air aloft. Expect some fog and stratus develop
across the area. Best chance for fog will be across the eastern
midlands/csra where highest dew points currently reside.
After morning stratus...expect mostly sunny skies. The weak
frontal boundary/deeper moisture shifting to the coastal areas.
Models soundings suggest a dry and capped air mass over central
South Carolina today. Air mass weakly unstable in the east and
south midlands/csra. Possible sea breeze/outflow from coastal
convection could trigger a few isolated thunderstorms there this
afternoon. Maximum temperatures mainly in the middle 90s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
models suggest weak low pressure over Florida Panhandle area will
move northeast along the South Carolina coastal front Monday and
Monday night. Moisture flux confined to the coastal South Carolina
as air mass inland remains mainly dry. There is some uncertainty
in the ensemble guidance...however the bulk of guidance suggests
low probability of precipitation across County Warning Area. Will continue low chance probability of precipitation Monday in the
extreme east midlands...mainly diurnal convection. Dry air mass
expected Tuesday with warming conditions...possibly near 100
degrees in a few areas as 850mb warm advection/down slope flow
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
models have been consistent showing a ridge over the central US
with a broad trough along the East Coast. Isolated afternoon
convection at most Wednesday afternoon. Moisture returns to the
region later in the week. Raised probability of precipitation into the 30-40 percent
Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures in the middle 90s
through middle- week...lowering into the lower 90s Thursday through
Saturday. Overnight lows generally in the lower to middle 70s.
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
Fog and/or stratus affecting the terminals early this morning. Scattered
to broken IFR ceilings possible at cae/cub. Ogb experiencing LIFR
conditions. In the near term...conditions at ags...and possibly
dnl...could deteriorate to IFR or possibly LIFR...as an area of LIFR
conditions just to the south of there could possibly expand
northward. Will expect improvement to VFR by middle to late morning.
Surface boundary will remain nearly stationary over the southern forecast area
today. A dry and capped atmosphere will remain in place over most of
the northern and central forecast area...and is expected to preclude convection
there. An isolated mainly diurnal shower or thunderstorm may occur
mainly south possibly near dnl/ags/ogb...but chances too low to
include mention in the tafs at this time.
Fog...and possibly stratus...possible late tonight/early Monday
Extended aviation outlook...
Restrictions possible in late night/early morning fog.
Otherwise...no significant impacts to aviation expected.