Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
713 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
a dry cold front will move through the forecast area tonight.
A dry air mass will remain in place through the rest of the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
cold front is beginning to finally push out of the Appalachian
Mountains this evening...and will continue to move through the
forecast area overnight. Deeper moisture has already pushed east
of the region...so the front will be moving through dry...with
only a wind shift from southwest to west as it moves through.
Further drying will occur behind the front tonight and with the
loss of heating and mixing winds should become light. Used the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast. Morning lows in
the middle 50s across the area.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
high pressure along with cooler and drier air will continue
building into the region Wednesday and be centered near the
forecast area Thursday and Thursday night. Skies will be mostly
clear. Used the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast
except strong net radiational cooling favored the cooler guidance
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
a dry cold front will push through the region Friday and Saturday
as a broad upper level trough moves off the coast. High pressure
building into the region at the surface and aloft supports dry
conditions through Monday. Early next week the high may shift to
our east allowing moisture to return to the southeast.
High temperatures will be in the 70s on Friday before the front
passes with cooler than normal temperatures expected over the
weekend. Favored a larger diurnal range than model consensus
suggested from Saturday through Monday morning with clear skies
Aviation /23z Tuesday through Sunday/...
expect VFR through the taf period.
A dry cold front will move through the area this evening...with
only a wind shift from southwest to west as it passes through by
04z. Diminished mixing will result in diminished wind
overnight...with speeds less than 5 knots. West to northwesterly
winds increase to around 8 knots Wednesday late morning through
the afternoon. The air mass will be too dry for fog formation.
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts expected
during the outlook period.
river flooding continues along the Congaree River at Carolina
Eastman and along the North Fork of the edisto river in Orangeburg.