Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
204 am EDT Monday Oct 20 2014
cool dry high pressure currently centered over the forecast area
will shift off the coast later today. A dry cold front will cross
the area Tuesday. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday through
the end of the week.
Near term /through today/...
dry high pressure currently centered over the region will shift to
our east later today. After a cool start...sunshine and weak warm
advection will allow maximum temperatures to rebound to near climatology.
Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
models continue to indicate upper energy will dive down
from the Great Lakes region southeast into the middle Atlantic tonight and
Tuesday...with upper low closing off to our northeast. Surface
cold front will cross the area late Tuesday/Tuesday nt. With a very dry
atmosphere initially in place...it continues to appear that
moisture return ahead of this system will be limited for our
region. Will continue to keep forecast dry.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
upper and surface lows off the middle-Atlantic coast will gradually
shift northeast...while high pressure over the MS River Valley
ridges into our area from the west. This will provide a continued
cool and dry flow through Thursday. Temperatures will gradually
moderate to near normal Friday into the weekend with weak high
pressure settling into the region.
Aviation /06z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions expected to continue through the period.
Scattered cirrus will continue overnight with light winds. Some
boundary layer mixing combined with very dry low levels should
keep fog from forming this morning...but will continue to monitor
satellite trends. High pressure moves east of the region later
today...and by afternoon light southerly winds are expected. A few
cumulus may develop with peak heating this afternoon...but that should
be the extent of any cloud cover through the afternoon. Clear and
calm Monday evening.
Extended aviation outlook...
no impacts to aviation expected.