Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
656 PM EST Wednesday Feb 10 2016
Canadian high pressure will build into the region tonight and
Thursday. An area of low pressure will develop along a weak front
just south of the forecast area late Thursday night. The low will
be near the South Carolina coast early Friday and farther off the
coast Friday afternoon.
Near term /until 7 am Thursday morning/...
high pressure ridging into the forecast area from the southwest
will shift east toward the Florida Peninsula tonight. Less wind
will occur tonight as the pressure ridge gets closer to the
forecast area and the gradient relaxes. Under mostly clear skies
and lighter winds than last night...expect lows to be cooler...in
the lower to middle 20s. Wind chill values will once again drop
into the teens.
Short term /7 am Thursday morning through Friday/...
a surface ridge will keep dry conditions in the forecast area
Thursday. An upper level shortwave will move through the broad
trough late Thursday night into Friday. Models develop weak low
pressure just southeast of the forecast area. Recent model trends
have been drier with much of the deep moisture to the east. The
timing of the system does not favor frozen precipitation with most of
the models producing the best moisture late Friday morning.
However the NAM is a little quicker to develop the low which may
bring precipitation type issues along the extreme eastern midlands
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
a dry airmass moves back into the forecast area Friday night. High
pressure will be in place Saturday and Sunday. The models show
the ridge shifting off the coast for Monday and Tuesday with a
frontal system moving into the forecast area. Cold air in the
lower levels will linger as warm advection over the high pressure
may allow for wedge conditions to develop Monday. Precipitation
type may be a concern depending on how long the cold air stays
in. The Canadian model has the coldest surface wetbulb temperatures due
to much drier low levels. Sounding profiles suggest the
possibility for freezing rain or sleet early Monday morning in the
northern midlands. However with model surface temperatures
varying greatly there is not enough confidence to include frozen
precipitation at this time.
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR forecast throughout the taf period.
Westerly winds diminishing this evening as the pressure gradient
relaxes. Will see high and middle level clouds increasing overnight
and into Thursday.
Extended aviation outlook...MVFR ceilings possible Thursday night
into Friday as a low pressure system affects the region. Ceiling/visibility
restrictions possible Monday as a southern stream low pressure
system crosses the region.
Georgia...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for gaz040-
SC...lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for scz015-016-