Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
242 PM EDT sun may 19 2013
Synopsis...
weak upper level trough will cover the region through Tuesday.
This will bring a high chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
area through at least mid-week.
&&
Near term /through tonight/...
rest of today...showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to
develop over the eastern midlands and slowly move eastward. The
driving force behind this area of convection was the partly sunny
skies late this morning and early afternoon allowing for some
heating and increased instability. As this batch moves eastward
the western midlands has become partly sunny as the thunderstorm
complex which crossed eastern Georgia continues diving southward. This
has resulted in a few showers developing recently over the western
midlands...but with temperatures only in the lower 70s activity
has not been sustained. With additional heating expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop over the western midlands with less
development over the csra where clouds have lingered from the
activity this morning.
Tonight...remains of the upper low will persist across the region
with instability lingering...which leave considerable uncertainty.
Activity will begin to diminish with the loss of heating...however
thunderstorms developing in eastern Tennessee will move toward the area.
This will result in additional chances of showers and
thunderstorms through tonight with some uncertainty of exact
movement as well as ability to persist in an area which has
already seen convection. Fog will also be possible toward daybreak
especially in areas prone to fog and which received rainfall.
Cloud cover lingering overnight will generally keep overnight lows
in the middle to upper 60s.
&&
Short term /Monday through Wednesday night/...
the main upper trough is prognosticated to continue tracking slowly eastward
into Tuesday. Ridging behind the trough may be able to take hold
enough by Tuesday to bring lower rain chances. Until that time
just chance probability of precipitation Monday. Activity should become more diurnal in
nature Monday night and Tuesday night with a decrease in moisture.
Not expecting anything severe with the storms...just occasional
lightning and some heavier rainfall. Temperatures Monday and
Tuesday will be dependent upon amount and thickness of expected cloud
cover...along with rainfall areas. Mondays temperatures only
forecast to reach the upper 70s across the northeast...while the
csra may be able to climb into the lower 80s. Tuesday and
Wednesday may see a little more sunshine...so highs expected to be
able to climb into the middle and upper 80s once again. As for
overnight lows...readings mainly in the 60s.
&&
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
the region will be under the influence of a deepening trough
takes hold across the Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions of the
country. Rain chances increase slightly into Friday as the main
upper trough moves eastward towards the forecast area. Expect
mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms through Friday night.
Once we move into the weekend...a dry surface wedge pattern
appears to take shape as the upper trough moves offshore. The
weekend may shape up to be dry. As for temperatures...expect them to
remain with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
variable conditions through the taf period resulting in low
confidence.
Areas which were partly sunny this morning have seen showers and
isolated thunderstorms develop early this afternoon with showers
in and around cub/ogb. Expect these cells to continue slowly
moving eastward while areas over the western midlands and csra
have become partly cloudy. These areas will see convection develop
over the next several hours...however confidence is too low to
include in tafs at this time due to timing and coverage concerns at taf
sites. Confidence remains low through the overnight as instability
remains aloft...but without surface heating the convective chance
diminishes. As such have remained with fog for the early morning
hours returning to VFR by middle morning.
Extended aviation outlook...scattered showers and
thunderstorms...mainly afternoon and evening...possible through
Thursday. Late night/early morning fog/stratus may be possible as
well.
&&
Cae watches/warnings/advisories...
SC...none.
Georgia...none.
&&
$$
