Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
317 am EDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014
a cold front has crossed the region and cooler and drier air will
enter our region through Wednesday. Moisture will return to the
region late in the week and into the weekend...allowing for a
chance of showers through the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
cold front has pushed through the forecast area with dewpoint
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s this morning. Skies
have also become mostly clear with a few remaining clouds over the
northern midlands/Pee Dee. The winds have turned to the northwest
early this morning and willl become more north and northeast
through the day. This will continue to allow cooler air to flow
into the area. WV loop shows large closed low pressure over southern
Hudson Bay with a deep trough across the eastern portion of the
country. Models show dry high pressure to dominate the weather
today. Guidance and local numbers very close and will stay near
consensus for afternoon highs...much more pleasant than the middle
90s around 100 degrees temperatures the region experience on
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
models continue to show weak high pressure to remain across the
eastern portion of the country tonight and into Wednesday. An
unseasonably deep upper trough over the east Continental U.S. Will direct cooler
and drier air into our region through Wednesday. By Wednesday
night...moisture will once again begin to increase across the County Warning Area
but not expecting any precipitation through the period. Guidance
and local numbers very close with afternoon highs and overnight
lows...will stay close to consensus and below climatology for late
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
as we enter into the longer term period...the main upper trough
axis will slowly retrograde westward...which will put the area
under a more southwesterly upper flow...along with allowing a weak
onshore flow to develop off the Atlantic. This will bring moisture
back into the region...allowing for an increase in rain chances
once again as we enter into the weekend. Extended guidance
indicates probability of precipitation increasing to the high chance/low likely by
Friday/Saturday. Temperatures will also remain below climatology through
Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hour forecast period.
Cooler and drier air continues to work into the region from the
north. Winds will remain from the north to northwest through the
period around 5 kts. Few to scattered middle-level clouds through the
Extended aviation outlook...MVFR or lower conditions are possible
Friday as moisture returns due to an easterly flow off the Atlantic.