Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
946 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
dry high pressure will control the weather through the weekend.
Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure will build over the area through tonight. The air mass
will remain dry but high cloudiness associated with an upper
trough will occur. Leaned toward the mav MOS for the temperature
forecast. This guidance has been the best lately.
Short term /Saturday through Saturday night/...
the models show the surface ridge near the forecast area with
northwest flow aloft. It will remain dry. Leaned toward the mav
MOS for the temperature forecast based on recent verification.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
the models show dry ridging dominating during much of the medium-
range period. A cold front with increased moisture may affect the
area late in the period. The GFS...ECMWF...and ekd MOS have probability of precipitation
20 to 30 percent Wednesday and Thursday. Upper-level ridging early
and warming ahead of the cold front late in the period supports
above normal temperatures.
Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...
some high clouds will continue across the area for much of the taf
period as an upper trough approaches from the west. Generally VFR
conditions across the area expected through the period. Winds will
be light and variable. IFR/MVFR fog possible early Saturday
morning at ags and ogb...but not enough confidence to mention in
the tafs at this time.
Extended aviation outlook...
no impacts to aviation expected.