Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
338 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
Synopsis...
a slow moving cold front approaching the downeast coast this
afternoon will move offshore this evening. An area of low pressure
will move northeast along this surface boundary bringing periods
of rain to the area through the weekend.
&&
Near term /through Saturday/...
water vapor imagery shows upper level trough digging southeast across
the middle Atlantic region. Meanwhile at the surface...a frontal
boundary was slowly moving east across the County Warning Area this afternoon as
weak waves of low pressure move northeast along the boundary.
Water vapor imagery also shows deep moisture plume streaming
north into the region. This will result in periods of rain across
the region through tonight.
The upper level trough will continue to dig southeast and cutoff
across the middle Atlantic through Saturday. This system will slowly
migrate northeast toward the southern New England coast on Saturday.
Moisture will continue to feed northeast into the region around this
system keeping rainy and unseasonably cool weather across the region
through the day Saturday.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s north and
west to the middle 40s to around 50 degrees across central and downeast
Maine. High temperatures on Saturday will average around 15
degrees below normal for this time of year. This will result in
high temperatures only in the low to middle 40s north and west and
upper 40s to lower 50s central and downeast.
&&
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
a nearly vertically stacked low is expected to move into the
southern Gulf of Maine Sat evening and track into New Brunswick by
sun evening and will continue to lift to the north on Memorial
Day. Moisture wrapping around the low will keep it quite cool and
wet Sat night and sun with periods of rain and drizzle along with
patchy fog. The steadiest of the rain Sat night looks to be across
the central and northern zones and then across the northern and
eastern zones sun as the low begins to lift by the east of the
area. Memorial Day is shaping up to be a much drier day as the low
lifts north of the region...but will still likely start with low
clouds and areas of drizzle and fog. The sky may brighten up some
during the afternoon...and although a shower is still possible much
of the day looks rain-free. Temperatures will continue to be well below
normal sun with highs only in the middle 40s to lower 50s. As the
clouds begin to thin out some Monday afternoon temperatures should
rebound well into the 50s with few spots in the south to possibly
top 60 degrees.
&&
Long term /Mon night through Friday/...
a few lingering showers early Tuesday give way to high pressure
which dominates on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing sunshine and
warmer temperatures. Clouds begin to increase late Wednesday as a
weak warm front approaches from the southwest bringing the
increased chance of rain by Wednesday night into Thursday. The
front moves through the County Warning Area on Thursday followed by a weak cold
front late Thursday. This front stalls across the central County Warning Area.
Weak dynamics with the front suggest only light rain through
Friday.
&&
Hydro...rainfall in many areas across northern and eastern Maine
has surpassed an inch over the past 36 hours. The recent rainfall
has returned flows closer to seasonal norms with the most
significant rises noted on the St John and Big Black. Additional
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected through Sunday with
additional within bank rises this weekend. Some of the rivers
in northwest Maine may come close to bankfull and we will continue to
monitor the water levels closely this weekend.
&&
Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/...
near term: widespread MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected through
Saturday all terminals in lower ceilings and periods of rain.
Short term: IFR/LIFR much of time into Monday morning in low
stratus...rain & fog. Conditions should improve slowly Monday
afternoon to MVFR and possibly even VFR by late in the day.
&&
Marine...
near term: a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Saturday.
Winds will begin to diminish this evening but seas will remain at
Small Craft Advisory levels through Saturday. Visibility will be
reduced in patchy fog in rain and fog through the period.
Short term: residual southeast swell from low pressure moving across the Gulf
of Maine will likely persist with sea/swell 6-8 feet into sun
evening. The sea/swell should subside below Small Craft Advisory levels Sun night
and remain sub advisory Mon-Tue.
&&
Car watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for anz050>052.
&&
$$
Near term...duda
short term...cumulonimbus
long term...pjr
aviation...duda/cb
marine...duda/cb
