Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
948 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Discussion...removed thunder...and was tempted to remove rain all
together (except for gulfmex)...considering water vapor imagery is
showing drier air moving into area and impacts of disturbance
exiting. However...have seen a few pop-up showers (very weak) from
time to time (out of area though) so decided to keep a mention of
showers. Otherwise...forecast overall looks fine. Will keep
morning rain (less than 20 percent chance) in for Wednesday
morning and will let middle shift decide whether to keep it or not.
No other real changes needed...so did not mess with too much as
even temperatures look to be panning out at this time.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 631 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013/
Discussion...updated for 00z tafs.
Aviation...quiet evening expected at taf sites. Thinking a
persistence forecast is good once again tonight with mainly VFR
sky conditions. There is an outside chance of a temporarily MVFR
condition for any site...but the chance seems low considering what
we have seen the past few days and similar overall conditions in
place tonight. Questionable wind forecast for lrd site. Unsure if
sea breeze will make it there this evening to increase winds. Some
guidance keeps winds around 10 kts through the night...while other
guidance brings 20kt gusts. For now will go with the non-gusty
solution...but may have to amend overnight if sea breeze
approaches.
Previous discussion... /issued 346 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013/
Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...upper level ridge
continues to build in to the west. A shortwave trough will
continue skirting around the eastern side of ridge this evening.
Moisture has slightly increased across northeastern and coastal
zones this afternoon. Models indicate the tail end of this
shortwave trough skirting the northeast zones before moving across
the coastal waters tonight and Wednesday morning. Although chances
appear to be better for convection further north of the
region...would not be surprised to see some very isolated
development. Went with low end slight chance probability of precipitation for the
coastal...northeast...and marine zones tonight through Wednesday.
Otherwise...temperatures should be fairly consistent with trends
for the past few days. Heat index values will reach 105 to 109
across portions of the coastal Bend. A weak to moderate onshore
flow will persist across the region. Across the marine zones winds
will remain at moderate levels overnight...and small craft should
exercise caution.
Long term (thursday through monday)...no significant changes were
needed to the extended periods this afternoon. Long term will begin
with upper level ridge centered across Texas. Remnants and deeper
moisture associated with dew point 2 will remain well south of the forecast
area. Ridge will be the main weather feature through the weekend.
This will result in continued very warm and muggy conditions are
across south Texas. Afternoon highs in the lower 100s out west to
middle 90s in the northeast will be common. In addition...heat index
values will increase to between 105 and 109 degrees...with an
increased threat of heat related stress possible. Late in the
weekend into early next week...isolated sea breeze convection may
develop so will retain low end probability of precipitation for the later periods.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 79 97 80 97 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
Victoria 75 96 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
Laredo 79 102 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 77 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
Rockport 80 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 75 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 78 98 78 98 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
Navy corpus 80 88 80 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
Gw/86...short term
