Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
1256 am CDT Sat may 30 2015
Discussion...updated aviation discussion for 06z taf cycle.
Aviation...generally VFR expected through the overnight...with
patchy MVFR ceilings and visibilities all but klrd in light fog and low St.
Afternoon convection looks for now to remain mainly north of the
County warning forecast area...but probability group for kvct remains warranted. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through the latter part of the period with
diminishing winds after sunset Saturday night.
Previous discussion... /issued 934 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/
Discussion...no major changes needed to the forecast this
evening. Chances of convection has waned with the loss of daytime
heating so pulled probability of precipitation from the western zones. Otherwise...updated
the forecast to incorporate the latest observational trends.
Better rain chances look to return tomorrow as frontal boundary
approaches south Texas.
Previous discussion... /issued 630 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/
Discussion...update for 00z aviation.
Aviation...VFR to prevail much of the period with occasional
brief period of MVFR conditions. Cumulus field over S Texas expeceted to
dissipate this evening and with relatively weak low level jet
overnight...xpctng low level ceilings to remain generally few to scattered through
the night. However...some brief periods of broken ceilings at MVFR levels
are possible at times...especially late in the night at klrd/kali.
Klrd may even briefly flirt with IFR conditions. Saturated grounds
may lead to MVFR visibilities by late in the night at kali. Cumulus field
redvlps drng the day Sat but VFR should generally prevail.
Convection may push south out of Hill Country Sat afternoon and have
prob30 for kvct terminal. Sserly surface winds 5 to 10 kts overnight
becoming more eserly by Sat afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 349 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/
Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...in response to
upper disturbances to move across the central Continental U.S. Per deterministic
output...expect a frontal boundary to enter the County Warning Area by Saturday
afternoon. GFS ensemble mean meanders the front just north of the County Warning Area
drg the 18z Sat-00z sun period before moving slowly southward across the County Warning Area
00z-12z sun. NAM deterministic output suggest precipitable water values
1.75-2.00 inches...along with a more saturated column....near the
frontal boundary. Further...the NAM forecasts high cape values/low cin
by Sat afternoon. The combination of the foregoing suggest scattered
convection over the County Warning Area Sat afternoon with the greatest chance along
the front. Despite limited upper support...antiicpate that scattered
convection will continue Saturday night owing to the front. Given
slow movement of the boundary and low ffg values...areas of/widespread
flash flooding is possible. Thus...issued a flash Flood Advisory for the 18z Sat-
12z sun period in coordination with adjacent weather forecast offices to the north.
Long term (sunday trough friday)...ongoing convection to continue
high chance probability of precipitation Sunday as the weak frontal boundary slowly pushes
farther south. Drier conditions develop Sunday evening through
Monday as associated upper trough moves farther east and midlevel
ridging builds in from the west. Models diverge through the week
with GFS/NAM developing a cut off low retrograding by Tuesday from
the aforementioned exiting trough. The Euro swings the trough well
the to the east before cutting off a low. In either
solutions...moisture continues to remain between 1.1 to 1.3 inches
under an uncapped unstable atmosphere. This should continue at least
diurnal slight chance probability of precipitation from Tuesday and Onward. Temperatures
will be persistent with highs in the middle to upper 80s across the
east with highs in the lower 90s out west. General light to
occasionally breezy conditions will develop each afternoon.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 72 85 71 86 71 / 50 50 20 20 10
Victoria 69 84 68 86 69 / 60 50 20 20 10
Laredo 71 88 71 90 72 / 40 40 10 10 10
Alice 71 86 69 89 69 / 50 50 20 20 10
Rockport 72 85 73 85 74 / 50 50 20 20 10
Cotulla 70 85 69 89 69 / 50 40 10 10 10
Kingsville 71 85 70 88 70 / 50 50 20 20 10
Navy corpus 73 84 74 84 75 / 40 50 20 20 10
Texas...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Sunday morning for
the following zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...
Goliad...Jim Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...