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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
638 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Discussion...updated for 00z aviation.

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Aviation...VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast
period. The only caveat would be the slight potential for very
light fog at vct and ali. Have just tempo 5sm groups for those
sites.

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Previous discussion... /issued 326 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015/

Short term (tonight through Friday night)...quiet weather
conditions expected through the short term due to a drier/subsident
airmass. Ctr of a middle/upper level high pressure system will meander
across north and West Texas through Friday night maintaining a northerly flow aloft
aloft. Surface high pressure will remain draped across southeast Texas and the northwest
Gulf of mex resulting in a light generally onshore flow but vrb
overnight with possibly a land breeze briefly developing toward the
morning hours. Only weather to speak of will be light patchy fog
briefly during the morning hours. Minnesota temperatures will be cooler tonight
with highs a degree or two warmer due to the drier envirnoment.

Long term (saturday through thursday)...dry air mass will remain
over the region on Saturday as the middle/upper level trough will be
over the central Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will gradually increase
by Sunday as the middle/upper level trough axis shifts back toward
the Texas coast. Will continue with a slight chance of rain for
the coastal counties and offshore Sunday. Both 12z GFS/European model (ecmwf) models
show a middle level low will form near the Upper Texas coast Monday and
remains quasi-stationary through Thursday. Precipitable water values
are expected to be around 1.8 inches from Monday-Thursday over the
coastal waters into the coastal plains. With the low being over the
Upper Texas coast...better rain chances will be northeast. Still
some uncertainty with position of the low...so will continue with
current diurnal trend of chance probability of precipitation over the coastal plains Monday
through Thursday with higher probability of precipitation over the coastal waters. Continued
dry forecast for western brush country through this period.

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 70 95 71 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 10
Victoria 66 97 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
Laredo 72 103 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 69 99 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Rockport 74 92 75 90 77 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cotulla 70 101 71 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 68 100 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 10
Navy corpus 75 91 76 89 78 / 0 0 0 0 10

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Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.

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Pz/83...aviation

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