Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
552 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014
Discussion....see 00z taf discussion below.
Aviation...cold front will pass through terminals between
06-08z with gusty north winds developing in its wake. North winds
will subside by 18-19z Monday. Expect clear skies and VFR
conditions through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 347 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014/
Short term (tonight through Monday night)...concur with the GFS
deterministic which moves an upper disturbance across the Southern Plains
with the surface reflection moving across the County Warning Area/msa overnight. Much
cooler and dry conditions expected Monday. Notwithstanding low relative humidity
values expected Monday afternoon...wind will remain well below
thresholds necessary for elevated or critical fire weather
conditions. Monday night...both the NAM and GFS forecast another upper
system...with strong synoptic scale lift per 1000-700mb q-vector
convergence...to move across the cwa/msa. Yet...limited moisture will
preclude precipitation. Decided to introduce clouds nevertheless. Cold
tempeatures are expected Monday night. GFS/NAM deterministic
1000-500mb thickness values would suggest surface temperatures near freezing
over the extreme northern County Warning Area. Yet...will forecast lows in the 40s across the
County Warning Area given likelihood for cloud cover.
Marine (tonight through Monday night)...as the foregoing cold
front moves across the msa after 06z Monday...expect Small Craft Advisory conditions
to develop...consistent with NAM/GFS/local arw deterministic
output...as much cooler air moves across the warmer sea surface (65-70f
nearshore and 70-75f offshore per sport SST composite.) Yet...
conditions are expected to improve from west to east after 15z
Monday as the surface ridge axis approaches the coast.
Long term (tuesday through sunday)...one last upper system will dig
into the region on Tuesday initiating a surface low over the Gulf. Pressure
gradient looks to tighten up enough offshore that we could see a
period of Small Craft Advisory conds before gradient quickly lets up Tuesday afternoon.
Could also see enough moisture for some light rain showers offshore and will
include 20 probability of precipitation Erly Tuesday. Othw the upper flow shifts to a less
amplified northwesterly direction through midweek helping to keep
our airmass source region of Pacific origin and allowing temperatures to
return to near normal.
Further out in the extended upper ridging builds over the area which
should allow a continued warmup. Leaned toward the warmer mex numbers
over the much cooler HPC readings for highs. Could see a few rain showers
as return flow begins but chances look too low to mention right now.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 50 66 45 69 42 / 0 0 10 10 0
Victoria 46 67 40 66 38 / 0 0 10 10 0
Laredo 49 69 49 70 41 / 0 0 10 10 0
Alice 48 67 44 70 41 / 0 0 10 10 0
Rockport 51 67 48 67 44 / 0 0 10 20 0
Cotulla 45 67 41 67 38 / 0 0 10 10 0
Kingsville 50 65 43 70 42 / 0 0 10 10 0
Navy corpus 53 66 52 68 49 / 0 0 10 20 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 am to 10 am CST Monday for the
following zones: coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
Aransas out 20 nm...coastal waters from Port Aransas to
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 am to 2 PM CST Monday for the
following zones: waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 nm.