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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
754 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Discussion...upgraded from moderate to high risk of rip currents
for tonight through Tuesday based on expected swell heights/period
and wind.

&&

Aviation...increasing moisture will contribute to the development of
IFR/MVFR ceilings overnight along with isolated shower activity
near the coast. MVFR/VFR ceilings Tuesday along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing over the coastal Bend then
transitioning westward drg the afternoon hours. Generally light to
moderate onshore flow.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 353 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014/

Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...less convection
noticed on radar as moisture depth is much less than previous
despite the near 2 inch precipitable water available. Should continue to see
isolated development through the late afternoon following the weak
Theta-E ridge before diminishing with the loss of heating. Moisture
increases heading into Tuesday as newly formed tropical depression 5
continues to develop in the southwestern Gulf. Models continue to
keep this system well south of the border however bring an influx of
moisture to south Texas. With this said...probability of precipitation will be on the rise
beginning Tuesday. As a weak shear axis remains across the
area...will maintain high end chance probability of precipitation over the coastal plains
for increased activity. Did extend high end chance probability of precipitation further
north and west. Activity should lessen with the loss of heating
Tuesday afternoon/evening from east to west...with redevelopment
over the waters moving into the coastal Bend and southern County Warning Area late
Tuesday night. Made minor temperature changes keeping relatively
cooler temperatures with temperatures in the low-middle 90s across much of the
area to near 100 out west due to increased cloud coverage.

Long term (wednesday through monday)...Tropical Depression Five is
forecast to be pushing inland over NE mx at start of long term period
with deep tropical moisture remaining over County Warning Area /assuming td5 does
not intensify enough to prevent deep moisture from overspreading the
region/. Wednesday currently looks to have the greatest probability of precipitation of the
long term forecast as axis of deepest tropical moisture will be
pushing through along with presence of low convective temperature values.
Have increased probability of precipitation for Sunday with highest probability of precipitation located across
southern zones. Remnants of td5 should gradually shift north along
the Sierra Madre Oriental on Thursday with deep moisture likely
remaining in place over most of the County Warning Area /greatest values across
western zones/...which should allow for chances of showers and
thunderstorms continuing nearly areawide Wednesday night into Thursday
evening. European model (ecmwf)/CMC are most robust with convective development on
Thursday and have gone with more of an European model (ecmwf)/CMC and slight GFS
blend for probability of precipitation. Middle level vorticity is forecast to exit the region by
Friday with more of a diurnal pattern of daily convection expected
for Friday through the weekend. A weak front is forecast by the
European model (ecmwf)/GFS to stall well north of the area late in the forecast
period while the CMC wants to bring the front into our area. For
now...will side with ECMWF/GFS. Locally heavy rainfall will
accompany showers and thunderstorms during the long term period
given deep tropical moisture and relatively slow movement of
convection. Maximum temperatures should be the coolest /relatively speaking/ on
Wednesday with afternoon temperatures the remainder of the period determined by
areal coverage of precipitation and cloud cover. Min temperatures will continue to
be slightly above seasonable levels /which are now starting to
slowly cool/.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 78 92 78 88 77 / 20 50 30 70 40
Victoria 77 94 77 92 76 / 20 50 20 50 20
Laredo 79 100 79 93 78 / 10 20 10 60 30
Alice 76 95 77 88 75 / 10 50 20 70 30
Rockport 81 91 81 88 79 / 30 40 30 60 30
Cotulla 77 98 77 93 76 / 10 20 10 40 30
Kingsville 78 93 78 88 76 / 20 50 30 70 40
Navy corpus 81 90 81 88 79 / 20 40 30 70 40

&&

Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...rip current risk through Tuesday evening for the following
zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces...San Patricio.

GM...none.

&&

$$

Wc/87...aviation
ib/90...short term

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