Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
1028 PM CST Tuesday Nov 25 2014
Discussion...updated aviation discussion for 06z taf cycle.
Aviation...VFR through the period with subsident high pressure in
the vicinity. Lvar winds overnight will become more consistently
southwesterly and slightly stronger during the day...then diminish again
after sunset Wednesday night.
Previous discussion... /issued 750 PM CST Tuesday Nov 25 2014/
High pressure more or less right overhead this evening. As the
center of the high shifted offshore just before 00z winds close to
the coast became onshore and dewpoints jumped up. The onshore flow should
be relatively brief as the high shifts further offshore and the
overall flow becomes southwesterly. All in all the latest RUC
seems to have a great handle on all the small scale nuances of the
weather in the next few hours and have used it to make adjustments
to the hourly grids. Otherwise the previous forecast appears to be in
great shape with a clear and seasonably cool night ahead for
Previous discussion... /issued 515 PM CST Tuesday Nov 25 2014/
Discussion...updated aviation discussion for 00z taf cycle.
Aviation...ceiling and visibility unlimited through the period with high pressure in the
region. Lvar winds will become weak southwest toward the end of
Previous discussion... /issued 322 PM CST Tuesday Nov 25 2014/
Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...mid/upper level
clouds continue to push farther east as the main upper trough exits
the region and high pressure builds in from the west. A continued
dry and cool air mass and a developing light and variable flow
should allow temperatures to drop into the 40s area-wide tonight.
A southwest flow will set up with another pleasant day in store
for Wednesday...with afternoon temperatures rising into the upper
60s to lowers 70s as the surface high slides south across the
northwestern Gulf. A surface low and its associated frontal
boundary across the Central Plains will shift east Wednesday
night...acting more as a reinforcement of high pressure across
south Texas. A brief period of northerly winds will be possible
late Wednesday night however onshore flow will quickly resume as
the high builds in.
Long term (thursday through tuesday)...concur with the GFS/European model (ecmwf)
that the upper pattern will transition from high amplitude early in
the period to quasi-zonal late Friday/Saturday. In response...
onshore flow will increase and allow for a gradual increase in lower
level moisture over the County Warning Area/msa drg the remainder of the period. Upper
disturbances across southwestern/scntrl Canada Friday...then across the U.S.
Central Plains Sunday...will contribute to the southward movement of a cold
front toward Texas. Yet...the GFS/GFS ensemble mean stalls the front
near the Texas/OK border while the European model (ecmwf) moves the front further south.
Concur with the former solution. (Caveat...given the very low
1000-500mb thickness values behind the front...the front could move
into central/southern Texas as a density current. Yet would like to see
consistency in the European model (ecmwf) solution before increasing confidence in a
frontal passage over the County Warning Area/msa Monday.) Anticipate that increasing moisture will
contribute to isolated convection over the eastern County Warning Area/msa Sunday/Monday. At
least scec wind expected over the coastal waters late Friday through
Sunday as onshore flow increases in response to deepening low
pressure over the Southern Plains owing to the quasi-zonal upper flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 70 42 73 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Victoria 69 39 72 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Laredo 70 45 76 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 70 40 75 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Rockport 69 46 69 51 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 70 38 74 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 70 40 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Navy corpus 69 49 70 53 70 / 0 0 0 0 0