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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
422 am CDT sun Mar 29 2015

Short term (today through monday)...a ridge axis currently over
Mexico is forecasted to shift southeast and become flatter through the short
term as low pressure approaches Baja California California from the Pacific. Subsident
flow aloft combined with a moderate to strong southerly low level wind will lead
to a warm day today with slightly above norm temperatures. The southerly flow will
continue to increase low level moisture/dewpoints into S Texas which
will result in increasing clouds this afternoon through Monday...which
will lead to similar or slightly lower highs on Monday. Winds are forecasted
to be a tad lower tonight which may allow for some patchy fog to
develop...but also increasing cloud cover will minimize the potential
for dense fog. As for the wind forecast...the low level jet is forecasted to increase
to around 30kts...mainly across the east portions of the County Warning Area. This will
lead to a breezy to windy day...especially across the coastal Bend
with advisory conditions expected across the bays from Baffin Bay
to Port Aransas this afternoon. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory
for the southern bays beginning at 1 PM CDT. Winds across the
coastal waters may approach advisory levels tonight...but this
should be short lived as the low level jet weakens overnight. Am expecting
winds to be generally at caution levels across the coastal
waters...therefore will not issue a Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters
at this time.


Long term (monday night through saturday)...main concerns in the
extended will be rain chances Tuesday night/Wednesday...then a cold
front towards the end of the week. Initially...shortwave ridging
will be traversing south Texas Monday night into the first part of
Tuesday. Also...models are not as aggressive with returning deeper
moisture back across the region and holding shortwave trough back
further to the west. So will keeps probability of precipitation below mentionable levels Monday
night and reduce probability of precipitation during the day on Tuesday. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will peak on Tuesday night as disturbance moves
across the area. Latest 00z GFS has departed from previous runs and
weakens system across the region...resulting in lower rain chances.
00z European has remained more consistent and still brings decent
rain chances to south Texas. For now...have favored the 00z Euro and
superblend values...which are more in line with previous forecast
and surrounding offices. Rain chances will then decrease from west
to east on Wednesday as system moves east. Temperatures will be set back a
few degrees on Tuesday due to cloud cover and isolated to scattered
rain chances. Warmer conditions expected out west on Wednesday as
skies clear in the afternoon. Middle/upper 80s t0 upper 70s across the
northeast seem reasonable. Warmest days of the week will be Thursday
and Friday as zonal flow develops over south Texas. Highs will climb
into the 90s out west with lower 80s over the Victoria Crossroads.
Models continue to advertise the next cold front moving through the
area around the Friday night/Saturday time frame. Chances for
convection will increase as the front moves through south Texas.
Cooler temperatures can be expected as well with highs only in the
Lower/Middle 70s on Saturday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 84 67 83 67 79 / 0 10 10 10 30
Victoria 83 63 82 64 80 / 0 10 10 10 20
Laredo 89 66 89 67 82 / 0 0 0 10 30
Alice 88 64 86 65 81 / 0 10 10 10 30
Rockport 79 67 80 68 78 / 0 10 10 10 20
Cotulla 88 64 87 66 80 / 0 0 10 10 30
Kingsville 86 65 85 66 81 / 0 10 10 10 30
Navy corpus 79 68 79 68 77 / 0 10 10 10 20


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
evening for the following zones: bays and waterways from
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas.



Te/81...short term
tb/78...long term

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