Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
341 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014
Short term (today through saturday)...water vapor imagery shows
drier air trying to move into the area...and some of this will get
into the northeastern areas. Do not think it will make it much
farther south as flow along ridge will not allow that to happen.
Winds rather light again today and with precipitable waters just below 2 inches...
will see some airmass thunderstorms today mainly over the southern
inland areas...some of which could even get into the northwestern
brush country early this evening where the best moisture will be
present. A bit less moisture and more wind on Saturday...as gradient
tightens. May see a rogue shower/storm or two but do not think they
will be of much consequence and likely very short-lived (thus no
rainfall mentioned). Concerning temperatures...am going about a
degree warmer each day based on 2 meter and 850 meter temperature
forecasts...except for near the coast where temperatures should be
about the same. This will allow for heat indices to get to at or
above 105f for much of the coastal Bend and portions of the Rio
Grande plains today...and possible heat advisory conditions on
Saturday. Will write Special Weather Statement for high heat indices today.
Marine (today through saturday)...isolated showers today with less
coverage on Saturday. There is some surface forcing this morning but
onshore flow is not very deep to warrant a lot of showers. Thus will
keep the low-end/isolated showers going but will remove thunder.
Relatively light winds today increase through Saturday with winds
getting to scec for the southern bays and southern nearshore waters.
Long term (saturday night through thursday)...much of the long term
period remains rather benign with upper level ridging building over
the area. Deep moisture will have exited the area by Saturday
night...but some near surface moisture remains. Seeing periods of
moisture convergence in the mornings...so think there could be a few
streamer showers at least sun/Monday mornings...but will only go with a
10 pop...not expecting too much out of it. By middle week...with a deep
upper trough in the eastern half of the country...a cold front is
expected to be in central Texas. The front should stall Wednesday into
Thursday...but looks to get a reinforcing push Thursday night to
Friday. It is unclear how far the front will push south...but GFS
and European model (ecmwf) both have the wind shift getting into at least the
northeast portion of the County Warning Area. European model (ecmwf) a bit farther south...with
east-northeast winds as far south as corpus. Have 20 probability of precipitation into
northeast zones near the front.
Temperatures for most of the week have little day-to-day
change...mainly hot days and warm nights...near seasonal normal.
Think Thursday should be a bit cooler with front approaching and
more clouds...and possibly showers.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 97 77 98 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
Victoria 96 76 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
Laredo 103 80 104 79 103 / 20 10 10 10 10
Alice 101 76 102 76 99 / 20 10 10 10 10
Rockport 93 79 93 81 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 100 77 102 77 102 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 99 77 100 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
Navy corpus 92 80 93 81 92 / 10 10 10 10 10