Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
648 am CDT sun Apr 20 2014
Discussion...note aviation discussion below.
Aviation...patchy IFR/LIFR visibilities until 14z. MVFR/VFR
ceilings today. Isolated showers/thunderstorms generally west of
U.S. Route 281 this morning then areawide drg the aftn/evening.
IFR/MVFR ceilings overnight along with MVFR visibilities generally
east of State Road 16 and west of U.S. Route 77 after 06z Monday.
Previous discussion... /issued 402 am CDT sun Apr 20 2014/
Short term (today through monday)...the GFS and NAM generally
agree that an upper disturbance will move across Texas today yet with the
bulk of the associated dynamics north of the County Warning Area. The
deterministic output then moves a second disturbance across the
County Warning Area/msa Monday afternoon. NAM forecasts lower cin values over the western County Warning Area
this afternoon and over most of the County Warning Area Monday afternoon. The NAM also forecasts
precipitable water values above normal drg the period. Thus anticipate at least
isolated convection drg the period. Both surface-based (especially
central/western County Warning Area drg the afternoon hours) and elevated (over the entire
cwa) convection is possible. Consistent with sref probability output...
patchy fog expected to continue early this morning over the northestern
County Warning Area...and over much of the County Warning Area tonight/early Monday...due to light
surface wind and near surface moisture/layer of drier air immediately above
the moist layer (nam deterministic soundings.)
Long term (monday night through sunday)...shear above the cap will
decrease from west to east Monday night into Tuesday as the
subtropical jet moves south and east of the region.
Additionally...decreasing moisture middle/upper level moisture and
upper level confluence will lead to a decrease in shower and
thunderstorm chances...with the entire region expected to be dry by
Tuesday evening. That said...model consensus is now calling for
moderate levels of moisture to linger over the region slightly
longer and a slightly weaker cap...so have bumped probability of precipitation up to 20%
Tuesday morning over the region as the last good middle level
disturbance makes its way through the region. Regardless...should see
pronounced ridging aloft Wednesday becoming slightly more zonal (but
still present) by the weekend. Drier air off the surface will
generally lead to partly cloudy skies during the afternoons...and
fog/low stratus at night through much of the rest of the period.
Expect above average temperatures throughout the long term.
Southeast winds may increase to scec/Small Craft Advisory levels over the waters
Sunday in response to a low deepening over the Southern Plains.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 78 66 81 65 83 / 20 20 20 20 20
Victoria 79 63 81 64 84 / 20 20 20 20 20
Laredo 82 68 88 67 92 / 20 20 20 20 20
Alice 81 65 84 65 88 / 20 20 20 20 20
Rockport 74 66 75 66 78 / 20 20 20 20 20
Cotulla 81 65 87 65 89 / 20 20 20 20 20
Kingsville 81 65 84 65 87 / 20 20 20 20 20
Navy corpus 74 67 75 66 79 / 20 20 20 20 20