Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
402 PM CDT Wednesday may 6 2015
Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...isolated shower
activity over the central/western County Warning Area should continue to develop. Recent
laps analysis reveals cape values at or above 2000 j/kg over the County Warning Area/msa
along wtih low cin except for the western County Warning Area. Isolated thunderstorms
are also anticipated later this afternoon/early evening before cin
values increase significantly. Limitation of convective intensity
likely due in part to significant drying in the middle levels per
water vapor imagery. The deterministic NAM suggest synopitic scale
lift...associated with an upper jet...over the western County Warning Area near 12z
Thursday and over the remainder of the County Warning Area Thursday afternoon. This
upper forcing may generate additional isolated convection over the
far west near 12z Thursday then areawide afterward. Scattered convection
may occur over the western County Warning Area. Recent buoy 42019/20 swell periods
near 8s and wavewatch output suggest 7-8s swell periods overnight.
Extended the high risk for rip currents until 12z Thursday.
Although deterministic NAM/rap suggest that wind may reach Small Craft Advisory
overnight over the coastal waters...not as confident as last night
when a definite upper disturbance moved across northern Texas/Southern Plains.
The foregoing upper jet may provide a slight increase in the mslp
gradient overnight. Yet...most confident in the scec scenario for
the coastal waters tonight.
Long term (friday through wednesday)...extended begins with south
Texas in a period of persistent unsettled weather. A large...slow-
moving upper low over the western Continental U.S. Will act to transport
Pacific moisture and provide weak support for convective activity.
Onshore flow at the surface will continue to transport moist air
across south Texas.
Rain chances froday and Saturday are mainly focused inland where
upper support is maximized...then slowly encompasses the entire County warning forecast area
by later in the weekend as the upper low begins to push eastward.
Both European model (ecmwf) and GFS guidance suggest a weak cold front approaching
the area early next week. GFS stalls it out across central Texas
while ecm brings it into or just through parts of the coastal Bend.
Given the discrepancy...will hedge in the middle by backing winds
slightly and cooling temperatures a category or so. Rain chances
should increase in either solution with the proximity of the front.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 74 84 75 86 75 / 10 20 10 10 20
Victoria 73 85 73 85 74 / 10 20 10 20 20
Laredo 73 92 74 91 75 / 20 30 20 20 30
Alice 73 87 74 88 75 / 10 20 10 20 20
Rockport 74 82 75 82 76 / 10 10 10 10 20
Cotulla 72 89 72 89 72 / 20 30 20 30 30
Kingsville 74 86 74 88 75 / 10 20 10 20 20
Navy corpus 74 82 75 83 76 / 10 10 10 10 20
Texas...high rip current risk through Thursday morning for the following