Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
407 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016
Short term (today through sunday)...convection over the Gulf
should continue to move east. Was going to remove probability of precipitation over inland
areas this morning...but decided to hold low probability of precipitation in through 15z
due to convection going on in The Hill Country and near Victoria
(did not want to have no rain in the forecast with convection
going on at this time although likely will end by 12z). Rain will
end by 15z at the very latest...then main concerns are the winds
and fire weather hazards (see discussion below on that).
Winds will increase today and at this time...winds will be below
Wind Advisory criterion with 20 to 25 miles per hour and gusts to 35 miles per hour
(wind advisory is 30 miles per hour sustained and/or 40 miles per hour gusts). Will
brief morning shift to monitor as 850 mb winds which are 35 knots
or so have the potential to mix down later today. Not much of a
cool down...if any...as drier air and northwest downslope flow will keep
temperatures from falling too much. Cooler weather will be seen
tonight...as winds diminish and great radiational cooling
develops. Could have a light freeze over the northern brush
country in some spots...and will put out a Special Weather Statement for the northern
portions of south Texas. Over the Victoria Crossroads area...looks
like dew points will remain elevated to preclude a freeze (still
included the area in the sps). Could also get close in Alice. Near
the coast...light NE winds will keep temperatures up at corpus and
Rockport...although these areas could easily fall into the middle 30s
or cooler if a light west wind ensues.
High shifts east on Sunday...brings weak onshore winds. Looks like
a great (chamber of commerce) day on Sunday. For
temperatures...used a blend of guidance today and Sunday...going a
bit on the cooler side tonight (except near the coast due to
aforementioned weak NE flow).
Marine (today through sunday)...Small Craft Advisory for all waters as winds will
be at or above 20 knots from middle morning to middle afternoon or so all marine
interest. Winds stay up offshore until this evening...then diminish.
Onshore flow returns on Sunday with high moving east. Rain chances
end by noon.
Fire weather (today)...have continued red flag warning...as smart
tools indicate essentially all of County warning forecast area in critical fire danger.
Previous forecast pretty much had timing right on the Money...so
no changes in that regard. Will update rfwcrp shortly.
Long term (sunday night through friday)...models continue to forecast
an embedded short wave rounding the base of a potent upper level low
over the Great Lakes Sunday night/Monday morning. This system will
push another cold front through S Texas late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Moisture will be limited...thus no precipitation is expected
with this system. Drier and cooler airmass will filter into S Texas
in its wake. The main issue behind the front will be moderate
winds across S Texas and strong winds over the Gulf waters. The wind
combined with the dry airmass will lead to an elevated fire danger
threat across S Texas Monday. A few locations may briefly reach
critical levels. The wind across the marine zones are expected to
reach Small Craft Advisory on Monday then diminish overnight. A southerly
flow returns to S Texas by Tuesday night/Wednesday leading to a warming trend
and increasing clouds through the end of the work week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 68 39 70 45 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
Victoria 63 34 66 41 65 / 20 0 0 0 0
Laredo 68 39 73 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 68 33 72 42 68 / 10 0 0 0 0
Rockport 63 43 66 48 65 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 68 32 72 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 69 34 71 43 68 / 10 0 0 0 0
Navy corpus 65 46 67 51 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
Texas...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 5 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Aransas...Bee...
Calhoun...Duval...Goliad...Jim Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...
Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 am this morning to 10 PM CST this
evening for the following zones: waters from Baffin Bay to
Port Aransas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas to
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 am this morning to 4 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: bays and waterways from
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...bays and waterways from Port
Aransas to Port O'Connor...coastal waters from Baffin Bay
to Port Aransas out 20 nm...coastal waters from Port
Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm.