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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
556 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015

Discussion...see aviation below for 12z taf update.

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Aviation...a mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings are spread across south
Texas this morning. Expect stratus to rise to MVFR levels through
the middle morning. Low cloud deck will prevail across the region
through the period...lowering late overnight back down to IFR
criteria after 06z. Light rain and drizzle will be possible at
times across south Texas. Greatest coverage will be at and around
the lrd terminal through the day...and increasing over the rest of
the region during the evening. After 06z rain chances decrease...and
do not have mention of rain showers at terminals at this time...though an
isolated shower may still be possible for the early morning Sunday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 432 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

Short term (today through sunday)...main issue through the short
term will be rain chances through the weekend. Moisture continues
to increase across the region today. Expect showers to develop from
west to east today (through higher chances remain confined to the
northwest) with upper shortwave trough over the Baja California peninsula and
disturbances lifting around and across the region. As trough
tracks eastward anticipated drying to then occur from west to east
during the latter half of the period. Confidence is less high in
much development and have trended probability of precipitation back some late Saturday
night and through the day Sunday...keeping main chances over the
northeast zones. Flow takes on a more west to southwest direction Sunday
ahead of a prefrontal trough Sunday afternoon. This will allow for
temperatures to warm up a good bit across the southern and western
zones on Sunday as more drying occurs. Light northerly flow
develops Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front pushing through
beginning of the long term period.

Long term (sunday night through friday)...deterministic models are
slowing upper trough even more than yesterday...which often happens
with a closed-off system like this for time of year. Canadian is the
fastest...with the European model (ecmwf) the slowest (all within 12-18 hours of each
other). Will delay passage of trough about another 12 hours...and
would not be surprised if system is more in line with European model (ecmwf) solution
(if not a bit slower) by the 00z Sunday run. Also...models are going
farther south (in part explaining the slower system) as previous
runs. Thus...best shot of rain now appears to be Tuesday night and
not Tuesday...especially southern areas and gulfmex. Will go with
likely probability of precipitation over the coastal areas Tuesday night. Could not rule out
thunder offshore Tuesday night. Rain should taper off from west to
east on Wednesday (unless upper system is slower and thus drying
will be slower). Should be rain-free once system passes east (if it
does by Wednesday night)...with another boundary coming down
Thursday time frame. Nice but cool on Friday. Cool and damp on
Tuesday but warmer on Wednesday to near normal values...unless
system is slower which would mean more clouds and rain. Turning
cooler on Thursday. For temperatures Tuesday through Friday
night...have generally used a blend of guidance and isc
collaboration.

Before Tuesday...quick shot of rain Sunday night with strong
front...mainly toward the eastern areas/gulfmex and near the Rio
Grande. Could have wind gusts in the Gulf waters in excess of gale
force...but will hold off on any gale watch at this time (after
discussion with kbro and khgx). Moisture should push south on Monday
to preclude rain chances Monday and Monday night...with no rain
mentioned in the forecast. Have lowered probability of precipitation for Tuesday morning as
impacts from upper system still west and isentropic upglide is
delayed. Staying closer to the cooler temperature guidance Sunday
night through Monday night.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 72 61 75 46 56 / 20 50 20 40 10
Victoria 69 59 72 40 54 / 30 50 40 30 10
Laredo 74 59 76 48 54 / 50 50 10 30 10
Alice 73 60 77 45 56 / 20 60 20 30 10
Rockport 69 62 70 43 54 / 20 40 30 40 10
Cotulla 68 57 72 44 56 / 50 50 20 10 10
Kingsville 73 61 78 46 56 / 20 50 20 30 10
Navy corpus 70 62 70 49 55 / 20 40 20 40 10

&&

Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Lk/84...aviation

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