Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
1250 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Discussion...see aviation discussion below for the 06z taf's.
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Aviation...MVFR ceilings expected to continue across the eastern County Warning Area
overnight...mainly effecting ali...crp and vct but also lrd
briefly in the morning. VFR conditions are expected by middle
morning. Moisture will be increasing through Tuesday and an upper
disturbance is forecast to approach the region from the west leading
to a slight chance of convection...mainly for the Rio Grande plains
by late afternoon/evening. Therefore have introduced vcsh for the
lrd taf for Tuesday evening...but areas north of lrd have a better chance of
convection.
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Previous discussion... /issued 849 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013/
Discussion...as of writing...kdfx WSR 88D indicated a strong to
severe supercell over NE coahuila moving to the southeast.
0130z mesoanalysis of the airmass to the southeast of this storms
indicates sufficient 850 mb moisture transport bisecting a corridor
of MLCAPE values of approx 5000 j/kg that extend from just west of
Laredo northeast to near Pearsall. However...cinh values are
expected to rapidly increase from southeast to northwest across the region over
the next few hours and the current convection over old mex should
diminish before reaching Webb County. Will continue to monitor
ongoing convection through the evening with a late evening
forecast package update likely to remove mention of evening
convection and to increase cloud cover due to thick debris cirrus.
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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 76 92 76 92 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
Victoria 75 89 73 90 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
Laredo 76 98 76 98 76 / 20 10 10 10 10
Alice 76 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
Rockport 76 86 76 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 74 98 73 97 72 / 30 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 77 93 74 93 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
Navy corpus 75 85 75 85 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
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Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
Te/81...aviation
