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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
issued by National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
1221 PM CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014

Discussion...updated for amendments to 18z aviation


18z taf cycle
front has pushed south of the forecast area...draped over the Rio
Grande Valley of southern Texas. Latest visible satellite imagery
indicates low clouds and fog has dissipated...being replaced by
scattered to broken cumulus mainly over the coastal counties.
Latest high resolution weather models indicate the potential of
isolated showers popping up through the afternoon...but spatial
distribution of shower activity brings low confidence of impacts
to terminals. Mostly cloud free over the western zones. Lowest
cloud bases this afternoon forecast at MVFR levels. Visibility OK. Light
northeast to east winds. /10


Previous discussion... /issued 744 am CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014/

Discussion...updated for amendments to 12z aviation.

Aviation...12z tafs updated for development of LIFR ceilings and IFR
visible at kcrp. Expecting foggy conditions to linger for a couple
more hours and then transition to VFR by middle morning. Also updated
kvct...MVFR tempo IFR visible did not linger as long as
anticipated...but MVFR ceilings amended to reflect MVFR ceilings
through middle morning.

Previous discussion... /issued 340 am CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014/

Short term (today through friday)...weak cold front currently
pushing through the forecast area...noted mainly be winds shifting
eastward...and drier air on WV satellite imagery. Had some
convection earlier in Gulf waters just north of Matagorda
Bay...but this has dissipated. Could see a few isolated showers or
storms develop offshore or immediately along the coast during the
day. Despite weak frontal passage...colder airmass remains to the
north today...and high temperatures should be similar to
yesterday...though a degree or two cooler. Better push of cooler
air comes in later tonight as core of high pressure ridge builds
south into the area. Will still see mild lows tonight...with a
slight chance of showers and storms...but will see cooler
temperatures and a more northerly wind direction on Friday.

Long term (friday night through wednesday)...main issue in the
extended remains how to handle the upper system which models are
handling differently. Model runs for yesterday were
there is a turn toward being a bit more progressive. Still...models
differ on progression...with Canadian being the fastest and the
European model (ecmwf) being the slowest. Think main issues with timing will deal
with when the rain chances will end...since plenty of moisture will
be available before the system moves east. Am kind of leaning more
toward a compromise solution (like gfs)...where best chances for
precipitation occur Tuesday and Tuesday night...then taper off on
Wednesday as moisture becomes less available (also lines up with
surrounding offices). Thus...after a quiet and cool start to the
weekend (and Halloween night)...will see a quick warm up...with rain
chances increasing after Sunday. Good moisture advection Sunday
night late where could see some showers near coast and gulfmex.
Then...rain chances kick up especially on Tuesday where it appears
that some large-scale upward motion begins to impact the area. Based
on model moisture fields...and the fact that GFS and Canadian will
have upper trough moving east by Wednesday evening (thus bringing in
the drier air)...will diminish probability of precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Cool morning on Saturday with upper 40s/lower 50s many inland areas
and daytime highs only in the 70s...with mainly 80s on Sunday but
increasing clouds. Daytime temperatures may have trouble exceeding
80f Tuesday with clouds and rain. Am going to forecast cooler
temperatures for Wednesday as upper system begins to move east of
area and cooler air follows.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 86 67 80 55 76 / 20 20 20 0 0
Victoria 85 62 79 46 73 / 10 10 10 0 0
Laredo 89 67 80 57 78 / 10 20 20 10 0
Alice 87 65 81 52 78 / 20 20 20 0 0
Rockport 84 69 79 57 74 / 10 10 20 0 0
Cotulla 87 65 80 49 75 / 10 20 20 0 0
Kingsville 86 66 82 52 77 / 20 20 20 0 0
Navy corpus 83 70 79 61 75 / 20 20 20 0 0


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...




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