Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
640 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Discussion...see aviation below for 12z taf update.


Aviation...light patchy fog is keeping visibilities around vct at MVFR
currently. Anticipate fog to clear quickly this morning with
sunrise. VFR will prevail across all terminals through most of the
period. Light and variable winds this morning will take on a more
steady southeast direction by this afternoon. Vct may see a return
to MVFR visibilities once again at the end of the period due to light br


Previous discussion... /issued 418 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015/

Short term (today through monday)...warm and dry conditions will
continue across much of the region today. Band of elevated
moisture remains further south overland and draped across our
nearshore waters. This will keep mentionable probability of precipitation only over marine
zones today into tonight...along with mostly sunny skies today.
Tomorrow...the band of higher moisture moves further inland as a
more steady onshore flow returns to the region. This will allow
for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the marine
zones and eastern portions of south Texas. Temperatures today will
be similar to those of yesterday. Heat index values over the
southern coastal Bend and plains may exceed 105 degrees this
afternoon...and an Special Weather Statement has been issued for these areas. Tomorrow
temperatures along the coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads will
be around a few degrees cooler with more cloud cover and higher
moisture over the region. Heat indices will likely reach 105 to
109 degrees in the afternoon across much of south Texas tomorrow
as well.

Long term (monday night through saturday)...the GFS ensemble
mean continues to depict the upper ridge building over the region
drg the period. Yet...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) deterministic predict crp
precipitable water values to remain near normal drg the Tuesday-Thursday period.
Decided to issue 10 probability of precipitation with no precipitation for the Tuesday-Thursday
period as a compromise between moisture sufficient for convection and
the upper ridge. Anticipate a gradual increase in maximum temperatures
drg the Wednesday-Saturday period with maximum heat index values
105-109f anticipated for the County Warning Area Friday/Saturday. Low minimum
relative humidity values over the western County Warning Area drg the period... yet
corresponding fuel dryness and wind will preclude elevated/
critical fire weather conditions. Low rip current risk expected
drg the period owing to wavewatchiii output. Increasing onshore
flow... with scec conditions over much of the msa by response to deepening surface low pressure over the Southern
Plains in response to increasing zonal upper flow over the southern
rockies as the upper ridge axis moves southward drg the period.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 97 76 96 78 95 / 10 10 20 10 10
Victoria 99 74 97 77 96 / 10 10 20 10 10
Laredo 103 76 103 79 103 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 100 74 99 77 99 / 10 10 20 10 10
Rockport 97 80 96 81 91 / 10 10 20 10 10
Cotulla 102 75 102 78 102 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 99 76 98 78 97 / 10 10 20 10 10
Navy corpus 92 79 93 81 90 / 10 10 20 10 10


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations