Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
324 am CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Short term (today through friday)...warm and mainly dry today with
main issues being temperatures and rain chances today and tonight.
First the rain chances...not very high but 4 km models are hinting
at some light precipitation over the northeast tonight (nssl WRF and
ttu models). Thus...will go with a mention of a slight chance for a
shower but rainfall should be light and limited (that is what the
models are showing too)...as middle level drying starts to get rather
good. For today...will keep a slight chance for showers/thunder
northeast this afternoon as there could be enough convergence and
heating to generate an isolated cell. Looks to be quite warm with
temperatures over the eastern areas about 3 degrees warmer today
than yesterday. Fog expected tonight with lighter boundary layer
winds...and will mention areas of fog over the northern areas. Just
a bit cooler on Friday and probably will see temperatures similar to
what was observed on Wednesday.

&&

Marine (today through friday)...scec conditions this morning should
die down by middle morning as surface trough approaches and weakens the
pressure gradient. Flow should be weak to moderate by
afternoon...and continue through Friday with a brief northeast wind
developing Friday morning before veering back to the east during the
afternoon. Just a slight chance for showers tonight.

&&

Long-term (friday night through wednesday)...primary weather
impacts for extended period are warm to hot conditions and slight
chances of convection. Saturday afternoon/evening currently looks to
be best time frame for any convection as surface trough
approaches...h25 jet streak noses into the region...and southeasterly low level jet
develops around sunset. Have increased probability of precipitation to slight chance for
western brush country with better chances existing to the north-northwest of
County Warning Area. Unseasonably warm conditions will occur on Saturday with hot
temperatures for early next week. On Sunday...a thermal
trough/dryline will emerge east out of old mx with strong adiabatic
warming processes resulting in maximum temperatures around 100 degrees across
most inland locations. The trough/dryline will retreat during the
evening/Sun night only to repeat the diurnal process on Monday. Can
not rule out a very isolated shower across the coastal counties
either afternoon given forecast convective temperature thresholds...but for
now will maintain silent probability of precipitation due to very isolated nature. A dry
surface front/wind shift will then slide south through the area
early Tuesday with surface winds becoming more northerly...but given
dry airmass afternoon temperatures should still warm well into the 90s
across most of the area. Cooler temperatures /values closer to seasonable
levels/ should arrive by late in the forecast period as more
significant late season cold air advection develops.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 91 69 88 69 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
Victoria 89 65 87 68 87 / 10 10 10 10 10
Laredo 99 71 97 72 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
Alice 93 67 91 69 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
Rockport 84 69 82 72 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 95 66 93 70 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
Kingsville 91 68 88 71 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
Navy corpus 86 69 82 71 83 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Gw/86...short term
rh/79...long term