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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
313 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...per the GOES
sounder imagery...moisture axis remains draped across the Rio
Grande this afternoon. Although no precipitation is currently
falling...will maintain a slight chance along the Rio Grande through
tonight due to an approaching upper jet and short wave along with
increasing low level convergence. Only have 5-10 probability of precipitation the
remainder of the short term as the weakening upper disturbance
swings across the region and drier air filters farther west and S
across S Texas. Only weather beyond today may be some light patchy
fog Thursday morning but with visibilities at 4sm or do not
have fog in the forecast for tonight. Patchy fog may be more of an
issue Thursday night/Friday morning with much drier middle and upper levels
across the region. Due to the drier airmass...slightly above normal
highs are expected for Thursday with near to slightly below normal min
temperatures. A generally weak to moderate east wind across S Texas this
afternoon will diminish overnight becoming vrb...but generally NE.
Then a repeat is expected on Thursday and Thursday night. Over the coastal
waters...a moderate east to NE flow will continue tonight then weaken
through Thursday and Thursday night. A moderate risk of rip currents continues
this afternoon and tonight...however if winds diminish as
expected...the rip current risk may be lower on Thursday.


Long term (friday through wednesday)...beginning of the period
large upper level ridge builds in over the state...bringing northerly
flow aloft and drier conditions. Afternoon temperatures will warm to
above average...with light winds over land through the weekend.
Upper level ridge begins flattening Sunday evening as upper level trough
axis starts digging down from The Rockies and sending a cold front
down into Texas. Models still diverging on timing and location
before boundary washes out. This run of the European model (ecmwf) more swiftly
brings the front through south Texas just at the end of the period
while the GFS keeps the front stalled and then washing out in
northern Texas. Also...the GFS is no longer showing the sporadic
strong low/tropical cyclone forming over the Gulf as it was trying
to spin up in the last couple of runs...rather keeping a weak/broad
area of low pressure in the Gulf...closer to the European model (ecmwf). For the time
kept probability of precipitation out of the end of the period...but may need to add
isolated chance at least for the day 8 period across the northeast
zones based on timing and position of frontal boundary as it gets
closer in time.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 67 84 64 84 63 / 10 10 10 10 0
Victoria 60 85 59 86 60 / 10 10 10 10 0
Laredo 68 86 66 88 65 / 20 10 10 10 0
Alice 64 86 62 87 62 / 10 10 10 10 0
Rockport 69 82 67 83 66 / 10 10 10 10 0
Cotulla 65 86 63 89 63 / 10 10 10 10 0
Kingsville 65 86 64 86 62 / 10 10 10 10 0
Navy corpus 72 83 69 82 68 / 10 10 10 10 0


Crp watches/warnings/advisories...



Te/81...short term
lk/84...long term

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