Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
756 PM EST Friday Feb 5 2016
high pressure will build in for the weekend...providing fair and
dry weather for the weekend. Unsettled conditions will start the
new work week as a complex storm system moves into the region from
Near term /until midnight tonight/...
stratus decreasing across north central and east central PA this
evening as high pressure builds and inversion heights lower.
Expect most areas to be clear to partly cloudy by late evening.
Subsidence inversion could locally hold broken ceilings along the PA/New York
border over northern McKean...Potter and Tioga counties.
Short term /midnight through 6 PM Saturday/...
winds finally fall off to less than 5kts in most places tonight -
leading to mins between 20 and 25f. Clouds may work back into the
far northwest after midnight. But these should only help to halt the fall
in temperatures. No precipitation expected. The mins are actually above normal
- especially for the north. Daylight will bring increasing clouds across
the northern tier. But a partly to mostly sunny day is the best
wording. Maxes should be near normal in the south and several degrees
above normal in the northern two-thirds of the area.
Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
the long term period begins with cold and dry zonal flow...with
any moisture well north of the New York border. An upper level low
that will be moving through the southern states will slowly make
its way up the eastern Seaboard. That middle to long range models
seem fairly consistent in the path and intensity of that
storm...with the bul of the precipitation offshore. A subsequent
low is currently tracking down through the upper Midwest and
through the Ohio Valley...then into the middle Atlantic early next
week. The biggest forecast question will be the interaction
between these two systems early next week. Current runs of the
GFS/ec have increased quantitative precipitation forecast...especially if the colder air from the
western storm interacts from any moisture from the offshore
system. Given it is day 5 there is to much variability to settle
on a specific amount. However current ensembles show a prolonged
period of light- moderate precipitation favoring the higher western and
The seemingly most certain part of the forecast is that the upper
trough is expected to be slow moving over the eastern US...driving
colder air into the region...and a chunk of unseasonably cold air
down into the Gulf states. The northwest flow will keep the normal lake
effect and orographic snow showers going into late week as a
series of weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft keep US on the
chilly and unsettled side.
Aviation /01z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure over Pennsylvania will bring a near certainty of
widespread VFR conds and relatively light wind both tonight and
Sun-Monday am...no sig weather expected.
Monday PM-Tue...snow/low ceilings poss...especially kjst.
Wednesday...-shsn/MVFR ceilings poss West Mountains
long term...la corte/ceru