Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
508 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015
a large area of surface high pressure over southern Quebec will
drift south over the next several days and slowly weaken.
Hurricane Joaquin and the pesky upper low to the south will be
shunted to the east. Dry weather will result for most of the work
week...with just a chance of showers accompanying a cold frontal
passage late in the week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
moist southeast flow will continue across the region early today
with regional 88d mosaic loop showing some areas of very light
rain and drizzle drifting north-northwest across central PA.
Drier air air the surface advecting southwestward into the region /and perhaps
some partial late today across the east/ will keep the chance of
rain very low or non-existent.
Early morning temperatures were mainly in the middle to upper 40s. Readings
will rise into the 50s throughout much of central and northern
Penn...and into the lowers 60s across the Susquehanna valley.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/...
drier surface-850 mb air /and at least partial clearing/ will move
over the region from NE to SW tonight into Monday as surface high
pressure drifts sswd across the northern Appalachians. This
drying makes to the Allegheny Front Monday morning.
Sky cover tonight and Monday will be minimal and lead to partly
to mostly sunny skies during the day Monday.
Low temperatures tonight will be between 40 and 45f.
Probability of precipitation for this afternoon/evening...right through Monday will be
very low...or near zero.
Temsp Monday will rebound by at least several degree f /mainly in the
middle to upper 60s/. They'll get back to normal by Tuesday
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
gefs ensemble plumes along with deterministic models show a dry
stretch of weather for the majority if the upcoming week as high
pressure builds over the region.
The next frontal boundary looks to approach the region late
Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will moderate to near or
slightly above normal next week.
Aviation /09z Sunday through Thursday/...
big surface high to the north will continue to funnel cold air into
the region from the northeast as it slowly drifts southward and
weakens. Low level wind shear is a big concern for the next 8 hours as the flow
aloft stays strong...but it should weaken as the surface high drops
southward. Will carry low level wind shear through the period.
Ceilings remain low /IFR to MVFR/ for much of the forecast period. Radar
shows area of scattered light rain showers/drizzle moving southeast to
northwest through central PA...which will bring intermittent visibility
Expect slow improvement...especially in the eastern and then central
terminals Sunday morning. Kjst may be stuck in the IFR ceilings into
Significant and widespread improvement is expected by Monday as
the easterly flow weakens.
Mon-Thu...mainly VFR. No sig weather.