Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
553 am MDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 330 am MDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Clear...dry and warm conditions to continue over the next couple
days. With the clear skies being observed over the area this
morning...it looks like temperatures are going to warm up
significantly today...we should be warmer than yesterday when we
had a cirrus shield over the area. In fact...700mb temperatures
2-3 degrees c warmer today over yesterday with 850mb temperatures
of 20-22c. Most areas are going to see temperatures today 20 to 25
degrees above average. Winds will be gusty out west today as 700mb
winds off the GFS increase to 35 to 40kts across Carbon County.
Stronger winds expected Sunday...day shift may want to consider a
high wind watch for the Arlington area...possibly vedauwoo and
Bordeaux. GFS 700mb winds increase to 50kts for Carbon and Albany
counties...more than enough for sustained winds of 40 miles per hour with
gusts to 58 miles per hour at these locations. Only thing that held ME back
from issuing the watch this morning was that the 700mb Craig to
Casper gradient forecast at 45-50mtrs Sunday morning...decreasing
through the day.
We start to see some increasing moisture Sunday afternoon out
west...particularly the snowy and Sierra Madre ranges...spreading
across southern Wyoming and the southern Nebraska Panhandle for
Sunday night and Monday morning.. followed European model (ecmwf) guidance on
probability of precipitation...so increased chances for areas across the south based on
this forecast. GFS also showing fairly widespread quantitative precipitation forecast for the
southern Panhandle as well Monday morning...so confidence is
increasing for at least low end chance probability of precipitation.
Long term...(monday night through friday)
issued at 215 am MDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Monday night...shortwave trough aloft moves slowly east of our
counties into the Central Plains with our gradients relaxing
overnight and cloud cover decreasing.
Tuesday...breezy to windy day with prognosticated surface through 700 mb
gradients and rather brisk northwest flow aloft.
Wednesday...progressively fast moving positively tilted shortwave
trough aloft moves overhead...though with minimal low and middle level
moisture availability...precipitation chances look meager. Little
warmer day per prognosticated thicknesses.
Thursday...ridging aloft moves overhead...though slightly cooler for
most locales with cooler north and northeast winds in the wake of
the dry cold frontal passage.
Friday...relatively mild day for outdoor afternoon and evening
activities...including trick or treaters...as ridging aloft holds
firm with temperatures well into the 50s and 60s...and with
relatively limited winds due to prognosticated surface through 700 mb
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 550 am MDT Sat Oct 25 2014
VFR. At Wyoming aerodromes...south to southwest wind gusting
23 to 32 knots late this morning and this afternoon...then wind
decreasing this evening. Minimal wind gusts over the Nebraska
issued at 215 am MDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Very dry afternoon humidities for areas along and directly east of
the Laramie range today. Looking at afternoon humidities falling
to around 10 percent this afternoon for fwz 301...309 and 310 as
afternoon highs climb into the upper 70s/low 80s.
Fortunately...stronger winds stay west of the Laramie range today
where fuels are not reported ready. Stronger winds expected Sunday
and Monday as a cold front approaches from the west and northwest.
Cool down behind the front will increase humidities and give some
areas chances for rain and snow.
Short term/fire weather...claycomb