Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
419 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014
..updated for aviation...
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 100 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014
Short range models indicate the upper level ridge across the
intermountain breaking down as it continues to push into the western
High Plains today. Meanwhile, the surface trough in eastern Colorado
will begin pushing into extreme western Kansas. This will bring
about a more southwest to westerly downslope flow across the area
during much of the period. With little moisture available, drier
conditions will persist through Friday night. Temperatures will
remain well above normal today as the Lee side trough pushes into
extreme western Kansas. Much warmer air will advect into western
Kansas with the NAM/GFS showing 850 mb temperatures climbing well up
into the middle to upper teens(c). Again, with the help of a downslope
flow, look for highs well up into the 60s(f) in central Kansas to
the lower and middle 70s(f) in southwest Kansas for an unseasonably
warm day. Temperatures tonight will drop generally down into the
Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 239 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014
A northern branch upper level shortwave trough will move from the
Pacific northwest on Saturday, then across the northern and Central
Plains on Sunday. This feature will push an Arctic cold front across
the Central Plains on Sunday with falling afternoon temperatures.
Then nearly zonal flow and gradual warming takes place from Tuesday
into next week.
For Saturday, expect one more warm day ahead of the Arctic boundary
on Sunday. Highs will range from the middle 70s west near the Colorado
border to 70 to 73 across the rest of southwest and south central
Kansas. Only some high level cirrus clouds are forecast with mostly
sunny skies and west to southwest downslope winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Have pushed highs slightly above guidance due to downslope component.
For Sunday, an Arctic cold front will push into western Kansas
beginning in the I-70 corridor early then across the rest of western
Kansas in the afternoon. Daytime highs will range from only around
35 degrees at Hays, to around 40 at garden and Dodge, to 50 at
Medicine Lodge, and the warmest from Elkhart to Liberal in the 50s
to around 60. Will maintain a non-diurnal temperature trend for
Sunday afternoon with falling temperatures. Have used the NAM 2
meter guidance for best guess of surface temperatures in the afternoon with
a slight modification against neighbors. Liberal maximum temperature could be
the most difficult as NAM guidance only has a high of 35, versus the
mav guidance of 54. At any rate not an easy forecast with these
Arctic cold fronts and surface temperatures. North winds increase to 20 to
35 miles per hour with the Arctic front with increasing cloudiness.
For Monday into late next week, a warming trend looks good, with
highs only around 30 to 35 on Monday, warming to the 40s Tuesday and
Wednesday, then 50s into Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be
the coldest Monday morning in the teens, then warming into the
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 415 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014
Dry northwest flow aloft will persist with VFR conditions. Light
downslope surface winds are forecast as a trough of low pressure
in the Lee of The Rockies moves across western Kansas tonight.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 72 35 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
gck 72 35 72 32 / 0 0 0 0
eha 75 35 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 73 35 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
hys 68 33 69 30 / 0 0 0 0
p28 67 33 70 35 / 0 0 0 0