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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
412 am CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

..updated short term and fire weather discussions...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 411 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

An upper level ridge was moving east over the plains states while to
the west, a strong shortwave trough was moving through the
intermountain west and southwest. This upper trough is progged by
the models to move out over the central and northern plains tonight.
A strong surface pressure gradient had developed over the Central
High plains in advance of this system. Southerly low level winds
were advecting somewhat better low level moisture from the Southern
Plains back into western Kansas. During the day today, a dryline
will tighten up across southwest Kansas. To the east of the dryline,
model soundings show strong southerly winds developing through the
mixed layer. It appears that sustained 25-35 mph winds will be
likely across central and parts of southwest Kansas by mid morning
and continuing into this afternoon. Have issued a Wind Advisory for
this which will be in effect from 10 am this morning until 8 PM this

The airmass ahead of the dryline will become increasingly unstable
with model MUCAPE values up to around 1500 j/kg. There will be
plenty of shear for rotating thunderstorms. Cape and shear
parameters are looking favorable for large hail up to golfball size
but with fairly high lcl's it appears that the threat for tornadoes
will continue to be low. Thunderstorms should break out along the
dryline by around 3 or 4 PM and propagate eastward into central
Kansas this evening.

A strong cold front will push south across western Kansas this
evening. There could be a period of an hour or two of 25-35 mph
winds behind the front which could also produce some areas of
blowing dust over southwest Kansas this evening. Some showers and
thunderstorms could also develop along the front as it moves into
central Kansas into tonight.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 343 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

A surface high will be moving through the area into Texas on
Thursday morning, resulting in light surface winds at least by the
afternoon after wind slacken through the morning. Aside form any
cirrus that might be associated with the upper jet skies should be
sunny given the low relative humidity in the lower and middle
troposphere. A better surface pressure gradient will be in place by
Friday resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Another dynamic synoptic scale storm system will affect the region
for the weekend. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in good agreement of
the evolution of another well pronounced dryline for Saturday,
with convection likely followed by a rapidly deepening low
pressure over western Kansas for Sunday. The low pressure is
modeled to track northeastward into the Missouri Valley. The
expected track implies our area could see both a warm
sector/convective threat Saturday and deformation zone
precipitation as well into Saturday evening or early Sunday. While
precipitation timing modes/amount may be the most uncertain
characteristics, the warm boundary layer ensures pcpn will be rain
while high confidence also exists in windy conditions Sunday and
Sunday night. Potential exists for high winds on the backside of
the exiting low, centered around Monday morning most likely.
Gridded model output statistics indicates sustained winds around
40 knots. Winds were adjusted away from the initial allblend
forecast, to a much closer consensus of MOS for Saturday through
Monday. Models suggest deep meridional flow across western Kansas
and a few windy days into the early part of next week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1249 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the first half of this taf
period. Winds will be increasing to around 25-30 knots with gusts
to near 40s knots at times. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop along a dryline by around 21-22z. Most of the storms
will be east of Garden City. Will carry thunderstorms in the vicinity at all the taf sites
after 21z and will include a tempo group at Dodge City and Hays
for a few hours in the early evening.


Fire weather...
issued at 411 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Gusty winds and low relative humidity is expected to develop over
far southwest Kansas this afternoon behind a dryline that will move
out to along Highway 25. A red flag warning is in effect for this
afternoon for the above mentioned areas.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 83 46 72 44 / 50 70 0 10
gck 85 44 73 43 / 40 50 10 10
eha 87 44 71 44 / 20 20 0 0
lbl 86 45 74 44 / 30 40 0 0
hys 83 46 73 42 / 60 90 10 0
p28 83 53 72 45 / 40 70 10 10


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ksz031-045-046-064>066-077>081-087>090.

Red flag warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for ksz074-075-084-085.



Short term...gerard
long term...Russell
fire weather...gerard