Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
215 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015
..update to long term...
Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 138 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015
A weak surface boundary will cross western Kansas overnight as an
upper level disturbance moves across the Central Plains. This will
shift the winds back to the west overnight. Based on this westerly
flow and in areas where little or no snow cover will exist will
stay close or go a few degree warmer than the latest guidance.
Elsewhere will go several degrees cooler. NAM and to a lesser
degree the nmm both hint at some dense fog developing late tonight
along and just east of this surface boundary as it crosses western
Kansas. At this time it appears that the fog development is
overdone given the recent poor performance of the NAM with low
level moisture and a prevailing southwesterly to westerly wind.
The 12z NAM surface snow depth earlier this morning had more snow
cover present than what really will be given the poor verification
between the 12z Thursday model snow cover and visible satellite
image from earlier today. Given this error and the 850mb
temperature change between 00z Friday and 00z Saturday will stay
close to the previous forecast and keep highs Friday afternoon in
the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 215 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015
The weekend is shaping up to be pleasant with highs around 60. A weak
Lee trough will move across the region on Saturday, but not have much
in the way of an impact except a wind shift. Lower dewpoints are expected
to mix out across the western zones, however, critical fire weather
conditions do not look likely given the marginal rh's and weak winds.
No precipitation is expected during this period.
For next week, models are continue to trend warmer and warmer. Will
see the most pronounced downslope southwesterly wind Tuesday and Wednesday
and surface temperatures should mix out nicely with much of the region seeing
the lower 70s. This is above guidance from the superblend and neighbors
were trending positive from the baseline. The next question is how long
the warmth will last. The GFS is now slower with a frontal passage and keeps southwest
Kansas longer in the warm sector. This makes sense with upper level
shortwave ridging continuing to stick around longer ahead of the next
trough out west. A trend to cooler temperatures is possible outside
of the extended forecast temporal domain.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1117 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015
VFR conditions can be expected through Friday afternoon given that
only middle to high level moisture will accompany an upper level
disturbance as it crosses the Central Plains overnight. A surface
boundary will also cross western Kansas overnight and as this
surface boundary passes the southwest winds at around 10 knots
will veer to the west. There will be a slight chance for some
patchy fog early Friday morning along and just east of this
surface boundary, however given the southwesterly flow have
decided not to include mention of fog early Friday morning.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 24 62 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
gck 22 60 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
eha 25 57 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 21 60 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
hys 24 63 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
p28 23 62 28 61 / 0 0 0 0