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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1117 am CST Thursday Dec 18 2014

..update to aviation...

issued at 836 am CST Thursday Dec 18 2014

WV imagery and 12z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper level
shortwave trough moving eastward across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is moving east across
the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a broad area of high
pressure is shifting slowly east across the western Great Lakes
region creating an easterly upslope flow across western Kansas.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 325 am CST Thursday Dec 18 2014

The shortwave trough that brought the accumulating snow overnight
was passing into eastern Kansas early this morning. Weak surface
high pressure will build into central Kansas in the wake of this
system. However, in the absence of any frontal passage or
advection of drier air, low level moisture will stay in place
today, particularly from Dodge City eastward where low clouds will
persist through the day. The sun ought to make an appearance
farther west at Garden City, Scott City and Syracuse, where in the
absence of snow cover, temperatures ought to rise into the upper
30s to perhaps 40f. The coolest temperatures will be in locations
that received more snow and where low clouds will persist from
Ford County northeastward and eastward to Pratt and Stafford.

The next shortwave trough will progress across the Southern Plains
by tonight. The surface response with this system will be well to
the south, with only marginal middle level moisture across western
Kansas. Low level moisture will be abundant from Dodge City
eastward, but too shallow for any low level lift to result in
drizzle or measurable precipitation. The coolest temperatures
early Friday morning ought to be in west central Kansas where
skies may stay partially clear. Given the persistent low cloud
cover and in the absence of low level thermal advections, minimum
temperatures Friday morning in locations such as Dodge City, Pratt
and Larned should be very similar to Thursday morning (upper 20s
to around 30f).

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 358 am CST Thursday Dec 18 2014

A fairly active upper level flow pattern is prognosticated by the models
through the extended period. At the beginning of the period on
Friday, a wave will be moving east over the central Continental U.S.. the bulk
of the better dynamics with this wave will be over the Southern
Plains so will keep the forecast on Friday precipitation free. There
short wave ridging will move over the Central Plains Friday night
and Saturday before another shortwave moves out of The Rockies
Saturday night and Sunday. Model soundings do not show much moisture
available across southwest Kansas with the most significant moisture
confined to the south central part of the state and points east.
There could be a few sprinkles or light showers around Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge mainly around Sunday morning. Conditions will be
improving by Sunday afternoon as the upper wave moves east and low
level downslope flow develops across western Kansas.

Upper level flow will become more northwesterly over the Central
High plains Sunday night. Mild air at 850 millibars will spread east
across the Central High plains Sunday night. Overnight lows should
be above freezing and may be warmer than the going extended
initialization is showing, depending on winds and high level cloud
cover. Another shortwave will drop out of southwest Canada into the
Central Plains on Monday which will push a strong cold front across
western Kansas. There could also be some light precipitation across
eastern Colorado and far western Kansas on Monday as upper level
forcing associated with a strong upper jet propagates south during
the day. At this time it appears any precipitation should be liquid
as low level temperatures are above zero degrees celsius.

The few days before Christmas should be dry and seasonal with
temperatures in the 40s. Later in the week around Christmas into the
weekend, the models are suggesting that another strong wave will dig
into the western and central Continental U.S.. the models are varying in
details regarding this system so confidence in any one solution is
low at this time.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1115 am CST Thursday Dec 18 2014

IFR ceilings will persist in the vicinity of all taf sites this
afternoon as low level stratus slowly erodes west to east across
southwest Kansas. Brief periods of VFR may be possible at khys and
kgck this afternoon. MVFR visibilities will remain possible through the
afternoon as areas of fog slowly dissipate/lift. Low stratus and
fog may redevelop later this evening as winds become light and
variable and an upslope flow continues across central Kansas.
Light northeasterly winds of 5 to 10kt will continue through this
evening as a broad area of high pressure moves eastward across the
western Great Lakes region. Winds are expected to become more
light and variable tonight as the surface high pulls further


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 36 25 45 25 / 10 0 0 0
gck 40 23 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
eha 41 23 48 25 / 0 0 10 0
lbl 39 25 48 25 / 0 0 10 0
hys 36 23 45 23 / 10 0 0 0
p28 37 28 42 29 / 10 0 10 10


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Finch
long term...gerard

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