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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
700 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

..updated for aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 157 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

A sharply defined upper level shortwave trough will be moving east
of the Central Plains tonight with some clearing. At the surface a
Cool Ridge of high pressure will also move east with light and
variable winds becoming light southeasterly. Some stratus clouds
could move into parts of southwest Kansas toward morning as moisture
is pulled northward from Oklahoma. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 30s.

For Friday, upper level ridging will push into the Central Plains
with mostly sunny skies. As a Lee trough deepens, the surface
pressure gradient strengthens across much of western Kansas. South
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph and gusty. Highs on Friday, as
850 mb temps warm into the teens celsius with good mixing, will
range from the upper 70s to around 80 far west near the Colorado
border to the low to mid 70s over the rest of southwest and south
central Kansas.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 352 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

The weekend:

A broad, weak upper level trough will move across the region over the
weekend. This feature and low level isentropic lift will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area through the weekend.
Spatial coverage of thunderstorms is fairly uncertain, and have broad-
brushed pops. The highest pops will remain across the northern zones,
it association with closer proximity to a sfc front. Severe weather
is not expected due to very weak bulk shear and related very weak flow
at the mid and upper levels. Environment looks like pulse thunderstorms.

Next week:

The main item of interest is next Wednesday. A negatively tilted trough
will approach the region towards midweek. Ahead of this feature, low
level warm/moisture advection is expected. The 12z European model (ecmwf) indicates dewpoints
around 60f advecting northward across central Kansas. Severe weather
could be a possibility with 45-50 kt of bulk shear, a passing jet streak,
and SBCAPE in the 2000 j/kg range, possibly higher. Capping could be
an issue with fairly warm 700-hpa temps. Mesoscale dryline placement is
largely in question and will depend on how much southwesterly momentum
there is in the low to mid levels. Just taking the ec model at face
value, the ingredients are there for supercells, although, there is
large uncertainty in where storms will form and where the dryline will
be. Per the GFS solution, there also could be interesting weather along
and northeast of the triple point in northern Kansas/Nebraska. Anyway,
just something to watch as we get closer to the event. Behind the dryline,
very warm downslope winds and mixing will create a high probability
environment of red flag conditions. Beyond Wednesday, Spring-like/warm
conditions look to continue along with a dry forecast. Doesn't look
like we will see any frost/freeze temperatures within this period...


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 655 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

A surface trough will develop in the Lee of The Rockies, resulting
in increasing south winds through the taf period. Some MVFR ceilings may
develop tonight as moist air returns northward above the surfce with the
increasing southerly flow. But any stratus should quickly
dissipate with daytime heating by 15z.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 37 73 52 79 / 0 0 0 30
gck 38 75 52 79 / 0 0 0 40
eha 38 76 53 77 / 0 0 0 30
lbl 38 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 30
hys 35 74 52 81 / 0 0 0 50
p28 36 72 53 81 / 0 0 0 30


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Kruse
long term...Sugden