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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
648 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

..updated for aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 144 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

An upper level shortwave moving through the Southern Plains will
help push an area of low pressure and cold front through Oklahoma
tonight into tomorrow. Wrap around moisture from this system will
affect south central Kansas leading to mostly cloudy skies and a
slight chance of isolated thunderstorms tonight. Partly cloudy
skies are expected elsewhere with easterly winds becoming light
and variable overnight. Meanwhile, an upper level low will start
to enter California with a strong 250 mb jet extending across the
Desert Southwest. Shortwaves will eject eastward from this feature
and slowly drift towards the plains. Cloud cover will increase
once again as this disturbance approaches the area with mostly
cloudy skies anticipated by the afternoon. An area of low pressure
will also develop around the Kansas/Colorado border Wednesday leading to
southeasterly winds across the County Warning Area. A few thunderstorms may
develop across far western Kansas in the late afternoon and spread
eastward closer to sunset. As for temperatures, lows overnight
look to be well below normal and in the middle to upper 50s and
around 60 degrees across south central Kansas.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 249 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Mostly cloudy skies and scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to
envelop western Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper
level shortwave moves into Kansas. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be across far western Kansas Wednesday
night then into central and south central Kansas as the day
progresses Thursday. Precipitation chances decrease from south to
north Thursday night and be confined across west central and
central Kansas through the day Friday. Skies are expected to stay
mostly cloudy Thursday night with decreasing cloudiness Friday.
Winds will generally be from a southerly direction throughout this
time frame as an area of low pressure/trough sits across eastern
Colorado. An upper level ridge then builds into the Central Plains
Friday night into the weekend. Mostly clear skies and southerly
winds are anticipated during this time frame as a trough of low
pressure sits over or just west of the County Warning Area. Models then suggest
the next chance of precipitation to be early next week as the
upper level ridge slides westward and a disturbance rides up and
over the ridge. Climbing temperatures are expected through the
long term with highs starting out in the 80s Thursday with highs
near 100 degrees by Sunday and Monday. Lows look to start out in
the upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday night with upper 60s to lower
70s Friday night into early next week.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 646 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015

Light northeast to east winds will persist through the period as a
weak ridge of high pressure persists. VFR conditions can be
expected, with any cloud remaining aoa070.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 57 81 64 88 / 10 20 60 60
gck 56 82 64 87 / 10 30 70 30
eha 56 83 64 90 / 10 50 80 30
lbl 57 83 65 90 / 10 50 70 40
hys 56 80 63 81 / 10 20 60 60
p28 60 81 66 88 / 30 30 60 60


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...hovorka_42
long term...hovorka_42

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