Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
528 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

..updated aviation...

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 200 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

The upper level low will continue to move east and through The
Rockies during the short term period with a strong upper level jet
positioned south of this feature extending into the Central
Plains. Low level moisture will remain in place across the
forecast area, however, mid levels of the atmosphere above west,
west central, and central Kansas look to dry out tonight through
tomorrow. Without copious moisture in the dendrite zone any
precipitation that falls across this area should fall as freezing
drizzle. Mid levels of the atmosphere across south central Kansas
look to remain moist. Precipitation will most likely fall as a mix
of rain, sleet, and snow as a strong warm tongue continues just
above the surface. Skies tonight into tomorrow look to remain
mostly cloudy with continued northerly winds. As for temperatures,
lows are anticipated to range from the lower teens across the
Kansas/Colorado border to lower 20s across central and south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into the mid to upper 20s.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 238 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

The upper level low over The Rockies will slowly move eastward and
into the Central Plains by Monday. A few weak impulses will move
around this feature and into the forecast area. Mid levels of the
atmosphere remain dry into Sunday evening then saturate Sunday
night. This will bring pockets of freezing drizzle to western
Kansas Saturday night through Sunday afternoon with sleet or snow
expected Sunday night into Monday morning. The only exception to
this will be across south central Kansas where off and on freezing
rain will be possible Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise
mostly cloudy skies will be felt across western Kansas. Winds will
shift more to a southeasterly direction Saturday night through
Monday then back to a northerly direction by Monday afternoon as a
cold front sweeps across the area. Mostly clear skies and dry
conditions are expected Monday night through at least Thursday as
an upper level ridge builds across the western United States with
high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface. As for
temperatures, lows will generally be in the low to mid 20s with
highs starting out Sunday around freezing slowly rising into the
40s by Wednesday.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 455 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Low ceilings, generally MVFR, will continue across SW Kansas through
Saturday. Areas of light precipitation, a mix of snow, sleet or
freezing drizzle will spread across the terminals this evening and
overnight. Included tempo groups for reduced cigs and vis for
these, with periods of IFR vis when the precipitation takes the
form of snow. On Saturday, low ceilings persist. Kept tafs dry,
although areas of fzdl are possible, particularly near khys.
Reduced winds expected Saturday, from the NE generally less than
10 kts.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 20 27 21 33 / 60 30 20 40
gck 17 27 20 32 / 40 20 20 40
eha 14 29 20 34 / 40 20 20 40
lbl 18 28 21 34 / 60 30 20 40
hys 20 27 20 31 / 30 20 30 50
p28 24 29 26 35 / 60 30 40 50


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Saturday for ksz080-081-



Short term...hovorka_42
long term...hovorka_42

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations