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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
258 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

Broad high pressure extended across the Central Plains into the
middles Mississippi Valley today. Western Kansas, generally on the
wester periphery of this feature was under the influence of mean
southern winds. An outflow boundary from overnight convection was
noted moving south across north central Kansas early, however by
early afternoon, the airmass across the County Warning Area was fairly uniform
with light south winds, temperatures rising though middle to upper 80s
and middle 60's dew points. The upper pattern supported little deep
shear, however the moisture profiles remained impressive with
precipitable water in excess of an inch along the southern Kansas


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

Given a general lack of differential heating and low level moisture
transport/advection across the area, thunderstorm chances should
remain quite low today, even along the OK/Kansas line where the
convective allowing models suggest the best chance for isolated
activity. If any storms develop, the lack of shear would support
strong pulse type storms. Local GFS MOS guidance is modest on
surface wind gusts this afternoon and surface wind will quickly
become light again around sunset. A repeat of the fog from earlier
this morning does not appear likely as the winds will provide better
mixing toward sunrise Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon temperature
wise appears to be much of a repeat of today, although dew points
may drop slightly in the far western counties, providing more
pleasant conditions. Additionally, the models suggest a surface
frontal boundary across north central Kansas being a Focal Point for
afternoon daytime heating driven convection which could impact the I-
70 corridor region with isolated storms, could easily focused much
farther north as well or the models may be overdoing the convection
as it's not well supported by GFS.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

Better opportunities for storms/precipitation follow in the Tuesday
and Wednesday timeframe . Models indicate shortwave energy moving
through the region, which would provide a lifting mechanism for the
conditionally unstable airmass and potential for numerous storms
or an organized line from cold pool forcing. The convection will
of course complicate the temperature forecast for this early to
middle 0art of the week, however the current MOS trend were for
rising about a Standard deviation above normal by middle week as
deeper layer dry air replaces the cooler more moist boundary layer
air that has been in place. Therefore another 100 degree day is
not out of the question by around midweek, although the trend
turns quickly cooler again heading into next weekend.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day. Visibility
restriction due to ground fog, similar to what occurred this
morning may be something to evaluate as plausible later tonight
for the later half of the taf period, however looks certainly too
low confidence of an event to foreacst at this time. Other than
that, southerly winds may only be gusty briefly and become light
again by sunset.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 67 92 68 92 / 10 10 10 10
gck 66 93 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
eha 67 91 67 92 / 20 10 10 20
lbl 68 92 69 92 / 20 10 10 20
hys 68 94 69 94 / 10 10 10 10
p28 71 92 70 93 / 20 20 10 10


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...none.



short term...Russell
long term...Russell

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