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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
558 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

..updated for aviation discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 334 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Warm air advection is ongoing across western Kansas early this
morning as low level winds have become more westerly...allowing
warmer air in the eastern slopes of The Rockies to spread eastward
again. Temperatures have actually warmed back into the upper 30s at
Dodge City through the early morning hours after bottoming out at 30
around midnight.

A surface low pressure trough will move out of the western High
Plains across Kansas this morning. Winds will become northwesterly
behind the trough and become somewhat breezy through the afternoon
hours. The additional mechanical mixing and daytime heating will
help warm temperatures this afternoon. MOS guidance has generally
had a cool bias through the last few days so I have bumped maximum
temperatures up a few degrees over the warmer mav MOS guidance.
Highs should top out around 70 or the lower 70s.

Winds will decrease again this evening and gradually come around to
the southwest as another Lee side trough develops over far eastern
Colorado. Temperatures should drop into the middle and upper 30s again
tonight given the warmer airmass and downslope component to the
winds.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 350 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

A shortwave trough will flatten the upper level ridge over The
Rockies Tuesday and then progress across the plains on Wednesday.
Lee troughing ahead of this feature Tuesday will lead to southwest
winds and warm high temperatures in the 70s. As the system moves
across the plains on Wednesday, the associated cold front will pass.
Despite the developing cold advection by afternoon, highs will still
reach well into the 60s.

By Thursday and Friday, upper level troughing will evolve over the
southwestern United States, centered over Southern California. Cool
surface high pressure in the wake of wednesday's system will slowly
progress off to the east by Friday, with weak Lee troughing
developing on the High Plains by Friday afternoon. High temperatures
should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and Friday, after
morning lows in the 30s and then 20s. The upper level trough over
the southwest will slowly progress southward into Baja California by Saturday
and Sunday. However, some precipitation is possible across
southwestern Kansas from late Friday night into Saturday owing to
isentropic lift and weak middle level frontogenesis, with rain
transitioning to snow. It is too early to tell whether appreciable
quantities of rain or snow will occur. However, it does not appear
that this will be a major winter storm. Colder air can be expected
by later Saturday and Sunday as the southern extent of Arctic high
pressure arrives, withs highs and lows falling back to below
seasonal averages.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 552 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Winds will be northwesterly today at 10-15 kts as surface low
pressure passes across Iowa. With the loss of daytime heating,
winds will become fairly light out of the west this evening. VFR
conditions will persist.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 334 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Warm daytime temperatures along with dewpoints in the lower 30s will
help push relative humidity levels down into the 20-25 percent range
this afternoon. This along with northwest winds gusting to 25 miles per hour or
so will create an elevated threat for wildfires.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 72 36 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
gck 73 34 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
eha 71 38 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 72 35 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
hys 72 35 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
p28 72 37 73 42 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...gerard
long term...Finch
aviation...Finch
fire weather...gerard

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