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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
310 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

..updated long term...

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 111 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

A line of showers is currently moving east and will continue to do
so this afternoon. Additional activity ahead of an approaching trough
is expected across the northern zones this evening. This area is generally
north of Highway 96. Severe weather is not likely due to marginal instability
and shear. There could be a marginal storm, but evidence is supportive
of against than with.

The next concern for tomorrow morning is fog. NAM and both cores of
the WRF do suggest the potential for ground fog. Have continued this
in the grids. Fog across the western, northwestern, and northern zones
could be dense. Confidence is not particularly high, but looking at
BUFKIT soundings shows a supportive thermodynamic profile near the
surface. Otherwise, minimums will be in the 50s and maximums tomorrow in
the 70s. Probability of precipitation will remain at zero percent in the wake of the passing
trough for tomorrow.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 309 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Warm and dry conditions will dominate the region on Friday and
Saturday. A broad upper ridge will develop over the southern rockies
through Texas region with a ridge axis shifting eastward across the
central and northern plains through Sunday. Subsidence from the
downstream side of the ridge will promote surface high pressure
building into the Missouri Valley with time. A flattening of the
upper ridge will follow by the end of the weekend with surface
pressure falls across the Central High plains (western KS, eastern
co). Between Friday and Saturday the models indicate a weak moisture
transport signal with increased surface dew points by Saturday
morning. This could result in an opportunity for either radiation or
advection fog development in central Kansas during the weekend, but
the current model guidance provides only low probability. Another
synoptic scale trough will move into the northern plains with an
attendant shortwave Sunday night. The GFS indicates a positive vorticity advection anomaly
digging far enough southward for precipitation anywhere across western
Kansas, while the European model (ecmwf) is not as aggressive. In the meantime, warm
conditions will prevail with highs in the middle 80s Friday, and low
80s Saturday and Sunday. The frontal passage will promote much cooler
conditions earlier in the week with temperatures slowly rebounding
through the 70s by midweek.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1200 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Ceilings through this afternoon will be VFR. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
possible this evening. Models showing that khys is most likely to be
an impacted terminal with this activity. LIFR/IFR conditions for kgck/khys
and with MVFR at kddc tomorrow morning in association with br and reduced
visible. Not totally confident on the areal extent across the terminals
for this taf issuance.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 53 76 54 85 / 20 0 0 0
gck 51 76 50 84 / 10 0 0 0
eha 50 76 52 84 / 10 0 0 0
lbl 52 76 52 84 / 10 0 0 0
hys 51 73 52 83 / 60 0 0 0
p28 56 77 55 86 / 50 0 0 0

&&

Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...Sugden
long term...Russell
aviation...Sugden

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