Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
324 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

..updated long term discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 307 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Forecast challenges for today will revolve around the amount of
stratus that materializes as well as the extend of falling
temperatures this morning. With six hours to go with increasing cold
air advection, plenty of time for radiational cooling exists with
temperatures only about 10 degrees away from meeting the freezing
point. Freezing temperatures would be most likely across the
northern half of the forecast area and least likely near the Oklahoma
line. The latest hrrr and hires WRF runs suggest it will be
marginal for souther portions of the current freeze warning
headline, however we won't discount the colder MOS products with
lean to the freezing point for most of the warned area.

A much colder day is in store given the cold advection that will be
ongoing through the peak heating of the day. Temperatures will
struggle through the 40s for much of the day, and probably not
exceed middle 40s through the Smoky Hill region. Low to possibly even
upper 50s may be achievable farther west in places like Syracuse
Elkhart and Meade. As the Cold Ridge axis settles farther east over
the Missouri and Mississippi valleys tonight, the colder air over
the eastern half of the forecast area will have a high probability
of radiating out to well below freezing all the way to the Oklahoma

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 321 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

An upper level trough will move out of the eastern Pacific and
into the southwest United States over the weekend. As this upper
level system approaches the central rockies an surface trough of
low pressure will deepen across eastern Colorado. Improving
downslope flow across western Kansas over the weekend period will
allow for a warming trend Saturday and Sunday. Based on 24 hour
warming 850mb temperatures from 00z to 00z the previous forecast
still looks on track with afternoon temperatures rebounding back
into the 60s across far western Kansas on Saturday. Highs in the
70s appear likely across all of western Kansas on Sunday.
Increasing southerly winds over the southern and Central Plains
will begin to draw more humid air in the lower levels northward
across West Texas and into southwest Kansas by late this weekend.

There will be a chance for precipitation Sunday night east of the
surface Lee trough as an upper level jet streak ejects from the
base of the southwest United States upper level system and
approaches the the Central High plains. Based on the GFS this
surface Lee trough will still be located near the Colorado border
at 00z Monday. A cold front will be moving south into northwest
Kansas Sunday evening. The cold front will move south across
southwest Kansas on Monday and the upper level trough exits The
Rockies and moves out into the Central High plains. At this time
based on the European model (ecmwf) and GFS the better opportunity of precipitation
will be Monday night based moisture and the location of the
surface front and 850mb/700mb baroclinic zone ahead of the upper
level trough.

On Tuesday an area of high pressure at the surface will build
into the Central Plains as the upper level trough slowly crosses
western Kansas. On Tuesday night anticyclonic flow aloft begins to
develop and given clearing skies and light winds near the surface
high the conditions will be favorable for another night of
freezing/near freezing temperatures. After a cool start to the
work week the temperatures will return to more seasonal levels middle
to late week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 108 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

A Post frontal deck of MVFR stratus with 1500 to 3000 feet ceilings
was spreading southwest from the Missouri Valley into north central
Kansas. This boundary layer moisture may impact area tafs after 10 to
12 UTC as the moisture advection continues and the boundary layer
continues to cool. A window of IFR ceilings are forecast between
about 12 and 15 UTC which should dissipate with insolation through
the middle morning.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 50 31 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
gck 53 33 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
eha 58 40 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 55 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
hys 45 27 53 40 / 0 0 0 0
p28 51 29 55 42 / 0 0 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
freeze warning until 10 am CDT /9 am MDT/ this morning for

Freeze warning from 2 am to 10 am CDT Saturday for ksz030-031-



Short term...Russell
long term...burgert

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations