Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
338 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014
..updated long term section...
Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 312 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014
An upper level ridge will gradually progress eastward across the
plains tonight, with west-southwesterly downslope middle level flow
developing over the High Plains by late Saturday afternoon. After
a weak surface high pushes southward into Kansas tonight, Lee
troughing will develop in response to the middle level downslope flow
by Saturday afternoon. Light winds should allow temperatures to
drop into the high 40s in far western Kansas tonight, with warmer
50s farther east. Given the surface trough over the western High
Plains by late Saturday, surface winds are expected to have a
slight easterly component. As a result, a slight upslope component
Saturday as opposed to the downslope winds today ought to result
in high temperatures that are slightly cooler (mainly lower to
middle 80s as opposed to middle to upper 80s). After a patch of
cirrus passes this afternoon, skies should be mostly clear later
tonight into Saturday.
Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 336 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014
The anomalously warm stretch will continue through the late weekend.
Upper 80s appear likely, approaching record highs (89f is the record
high at Dodge City sunday). This will be the last day, though, as
the timing of the next cold front will be early enough in the day to
offset warming from direct insolation. The cooler European model (ecmwf) was followed
given the expected stronger initial cold advection. Late Monday
night, we will maintain some slight chance probability of precipitation along the 700mb
front, however the moisture will be limited at 700mb and the upper
level disturbance will be moving quickly east to our north. The
latest European model (ecmwf) suggests another shortwave disturbance moving southeast
in the broader northwest flow pattern late Wednesday and into
Thursday. This should keep temperatures from warming back up into
the middle-upper 70s, which is reflected already in the forecast.
Surface high pressure will likely prevail late in the week as the
upper level high will be displaced to the southwest across Arizona.
Light winds and seasonal temperatures in the 60s are likely with a
near-zero chance for precipitation middle to late week as the polar jet
stream shifts well back to the north.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1256 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014
A weak front will pass through the taf sites tonight, resulting in
light northerly winds. A surface trough will develop once again
over the High Plains on Saturday, resulting in generally south
winds at 10 kts. VFR conditions will prevail.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 53 84 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
gck 49 85 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
eha 50 86 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 51 88 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
hys 50 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
p28 57 86 57 90 / 0 0 0 0