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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
602 am CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

..updated for aviation...

issued at 310 am CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

A deep upper level trough will amplify today over the west before
ejecting rapidly northeastward into the northern plains by Sunday,
helping to push a cold front into western Kansas by late Sunday.
Ahead of the western upper level system, surface troughing will
persist in the Lee of The Rockies, resulting in a continuation of
south winds and hot weather. Zonal mid level flow across The
Rockies and resultant pressure falls will prevent this front from
pushing much father south than Kansas through mid week. A stronger
cold front will arrive by Wednesday night as another upper level
system approaches.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 320 am CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Winds will be breezy from the south at 15 to 25 kts today ahead
of the surface trough. Highs will reach into the upper 90s.
Surface based cape values will be very low with diluted moisture
in the vertical. A high based thunderstorm can't be ruled out in
far western Kansas once again. Due to the high cloud bases, strong
outflow winds will be the main concern with any storm that
develops. Any evening storms will weaken and die this evening with
the loss of daytime heating, leaving some leftover high cloudiness

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 335 am CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

A few high based thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening along the cold front. Temperatures will be quite hot ahead
of the front with readings near 100f. There is a little better
chance for thunderstorms from Sunday night into early to mid next
week due to the stalled out frontal boundary and increasing low
level moisture. There is a chance that some of these storms could
be severe given the increasing mid to high level winds. The European model (ecmwf)
shows limited cape given the warm upper level temperatures. So it
is questionable whether any of the storms on Monday will be severe.
Monday will still be quite warm in the mid to upper 90s. Thunderstorms
will be possible into Tuesday night along and even on the cool
side of the front. Highs should drop into the 80s to lower 90s by
Tuesday and Wednesday. There are chances for thunderstorms along
the aforementioned stronger cold front by late Wednesday, with
much cooler temperatures in the wake of the front by Thursday and


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 558 am CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

VFR conditions will continue. South winds will increase to 15-28kt
then decrease just before sunset. Some high level cirrus
cloudiness will also increase this afternoon into the evening.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 98 72 100 68 / 0 0 20 20
gck 97 70 98 65 / 20 20 20 20
eha 97 68 96 65 / 20 20 20 20
lbl 97 71 99 68 / 10 10 20 20
hys 100 74 100 67 / 10 10 20 20
p28 98 74 100 73 / 0 0 10 30


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Finch
long term...Finch

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