Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
523 PM CST Monday Dec 22 2014
..updated aviation section...
Short term...(this afternoon through tuesday)
issued at 1212 PM CST Monday Dec 22 2014
The breezy winds will eventually subside towards dusk in the 10 to 18
miles per hour range continuing through the overnight. Overnight lows will be in
the upper 20s to lower 30s with all the incoming cloud cover and downslope
A vortmax will swing across eastern Kansas tomorrow morning and into
the afternoon hours. Increasing frontogenesis will lead to light precipitation
across the region. Have ramped up pops, qpf, and snow amounts since
all the mesoscale models are indicating a minor event. Top down approach
gives a smorgasbord of precipitation types. An inch of snow will be
possible in the Hays area with a half of an inch from Garden City to
Dodge City to Stafford. Little if any amounts are expected further to
the southwest and south. Highs will be much colder than compared to
Monday with values climbing little through the day as the continued
cold air advection continues through the period. 30s look reasonable
for right now.
For winds, GFS continues to be strongest with the wind profile. The
NAM and arw cores are weaker. The strongest mixed layer winds look to
be located across the 6 far western counties and have trimmed the watch
as such. It's borderline wind event but am not going to upgrade the
watch to warning right now since there is uncertainty with the wind
Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 302 PM CST Monday Dec 22 2014
Breezy conditions are likely to persist through much of the
overnight period Wednesday night into very early Thursday. Models
show very low and middle level relative humidities as the ridging
aloft settles into the plains region. With this pattern we've
hedged the temperatures toward the colder NAM lows as winds
slacken, and skies become completely cleared during this time.
Temperatures will rebound each day to higher highs Wednesday and
Thursday on light westerly winds from 40s Wednesday to a broader
50s range on Thursday.
Both the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) models have a similar synoptic pattern
which supports driving another Pacific cold front across the region
Friday. Colder temperatures will follow the strong cold advection
for Friday and especially Saturday morning when lows will be back
in the middle teens. However airmass modification is expected back
toward near normal temperatures for the weekend. The better
forcing for precipitation looks to far north and east to be a
significant probability in western Kansas with this weather system.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 518 PM CST Monday Dec 22 2014
VFR conditions will prevail overnight with increasing high clouds.
Winds will generally be from the northwest at 10 to 15 knots. Low
clouds roll in tomorrow morning allowing MVFR conditions to be
osberved. Northwest wind speeds will also increase in the morning
to 25 to 30 knots gusting to around 40 knots at times. A slight
chance of rain or snow is possible tomorrow afternoon but have
left the mention of this out the tafs for now.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 31 33 22 42 / 20 50 20 0
gck 29 32 17 41 / 20 50 10 0
eha 29 37 20 47 / 20 20 10 0
lbl 30 36 19 43 / 10 30 10 0
hys 31 34 22 40 / 20 50 20 0
p28 32 38 25 43 / 10 40 30 0
high wind watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon