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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

..updated for aviation...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 408 am CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014

Moderate/heavy rainfall event was underway overnight. Much of the
shift has been focused on ultra-short term monitoring of radar
trends for potential short-fuse Hydro products (flood advisories
and/or warnings). So far, the torrential rainfall rates have been
confined to areas closes to the Colorado border from roughly 06-08z
(portions of Hamilton and Stanton county), but as of 0850z, it
appears that a mesoscale convective vortex (mcv) was becoming
established across far southwest Kansas -- centered roughly over
Johnson to Ulysses. It will most likely be along the track of this
mesoscale convective vortex where excessive rainfall will it tracked slowly
east-southeast through daybreak and into the day Wednesday. There
has, however, been an increasing trend in rainfall rates from the
Panhandle of Finney County down to Hodgeman County into Kiowa
County, with slow individual cell motions. Instantaneous rainfall
rates of 2-3 inches per hour were occurring with these individual
cells. There will still be a flash flooding threat in this
environment, but we will need to see a further enhancement of
convection with greater radar return in excess of 45 dbz through the
morning hours to realize any flash flooding. We will continue the
Flash Flood Watch for the reason that the 850-750mb deformation zone
and mesoscale convective vortex will continue to mature through 18z Wednesday. It would seem
that the best chance for this to occur would be between the Arkansas
River and the Oklahoma border (and even more likely closer to the
Oklahoma border). As far as temperatures go, we loaded in the the
National Weather Service internal bias-corrected consensus short guidance (bcconsshort),
which kept temperatures in the mid to upper 60s all day between The
Ark river and the Oklahoma border where rain will continue through
the day. Up at Hays, however, there may be some filtered sun to
allow temperatures to warm up to around 80f by late afternoon, so
the bcconsshort was adjusted up a bit in this area.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 408 am CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014

Temperatures will rapidly modify through the 80s on Thursday and
Friday as a dry and warmer plume noses into western Kansas from the
northern High Plains. A 592 dm 500 mb ridge over the central and
southern rockies will influence sensible weather over the next few
days. Several models indicate potential for daytime surface based
convection over the Sangre de Cristo mts and into se Colorado. The
probabilities of any storms affecting far SW Kansas appears low at
this time.

The upper ridge will continue to dominate the region through moist
of this forecast period. The GFS does show a breakdown of the ridge
heading into the middle of next week with the eastward propagation
of a very slow moving Pacific front. However no standout signal for
precipitation appears evident.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1216 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014

IFR cigs and light showers will end quickly across the taf sites
by early afternoon as the large area of showers moves east. Expect
northeast winds of 15-25kt to decrease to light and variable later
this afternoon and overnight with VFR conditions.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 70 60 81 60 / 100 10 0 0
gck 70 57 80 59 / 60 10 10 0
eha 69 60 80 59 / 20 10 10 10
lbl 69 61 79 60 / 50 10 10 0
hys 77 62 85 61 / 60 10 0 0
p28 70 61 82 61 / 100 30 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for ksz064-



Short term...umscheid
long term...Russell

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