Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
713 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015
..updated for aviation discussion...
Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 1242 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015
It is still unclear how storm evolution will play out tonight.
Took some input from the hrrr and more importantly the WRF-arw for
a baseline of grid products. Think convection will fire late this
afternoon roughly between Highway 83 and Highway 283. Will have to
watch down by Liberal, Meade, and Ulysses as the winds are more
backed here. This could lead to a slightly higher tornado threat.
Cape will be in the 2000-3000 j/kg along with 30-40 knots of shear.
The low level profile has good directional shear, however, speed
shear is not that impressive. Think the main threats for this
evening will be large hail up to tennis Ball size, heavy rainfall
with localized flash flooding, and a brief tornado or two with the
initial onset of convection. The hrrr has the storms evolving into
a messy cluster later tonight, so that could potentially lead to
less of a tornado threat for areas east of Dodge City. Precipitable waters will
remain statistically significant through the event, so a few
inches of rain is not out of the question for areas that are
underneath training storms. Additional showers and thunderstorms
will be possible through the overnight as the low level jet
strengthens along with Theta-E advection. Lows will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
The wet pattern continues with another shot at convection during
the afternoon. Instability will be plenty for severe weather,
however, shear tomorrow is forecast to be weaker. So storm types
may be more along the line of multicellular clusters with
transient supercell structures. Large hail, wind, and heavy
rainfall will be the main threats. Directional shear is less
impressive and upper level winds back with height, so a more messy
storm type is more likely. Highs will be around 80.
Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 1255 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015
Thunderstorm chances will persist into Friday and Friday night as
an upper level trough over the northwestern United States slowly
progresses toward western Kansas. Ahead of this feature, ample low
level moisture will still be in place. Thunderstorm chances are
high Thursday night, with activity lingering on Friday and perhaps
redeveloping Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. The timing
of individual storm clusters will of course depend on airmass
recovery from previous thunderstorms. Some of the storms Thursday
night will likely be severe with large hail and damaging winds. We
are considering a Flash Flood Watch for parts of south central and
southwestern Kansas. After the upper level trough axis and surface
cold front pass Friday night, the lower levels will dry out
somewhat and temperatures will cool. Highs Saturday should only
reach near 70, with lows in the lower 50s by Sunday morning.
Weak upper level ridging will develop over the plains by late
Sunday, along with Lee troughing, southerly winds and a warming
trend through middle week. High temperatures ought to warm into the
lower 80s by Monday and then middle to upper 80s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. A large upper level trough will develop across the
western United States by middle to late next week with continued Lee
troughing and some chance for late day and nighttime thunderstorms.
Some of these storms could be severe but it's not looking like a
tornadic pattern since the upper level jet is prognosticated to stay
north of Kansas. Overnight lows will be held up by high dewpoints
and south winds.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 708 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015
Thunderstorms will affect the taf sites for the next several
hours and possibly through 08z. Aside from the thunderstorms, VFR
conditions will generally persist, with south to southeast winds
at 10 to 15 kts.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 61 80 61 77 / 80 60 70 50
gck 59 81 58 79 / 60 40 50 30
eha 58 80 56 79 / 40 30 30 40
lbl 60 81 60 80 / 50 40 50 40
hys 61 79 60 78 / 60 60 70 50
p28 64 79 65 78 / 80 60 60 50
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for ksz065-066-078>081-