Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
222 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

..update to long term...

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 129 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

In the near term, a stationary front stretching northeast to
southwest across western Kansas will move very little overnight. A
low pressure center within this front near Syracuse this afternoon,
will slide south-southeast tonight, allowing the front to slide
southeast to near Wichita and Medicine Lodge by early Thursday
morning. A rather strong upper wave will cross northern Kansas,
helping to push the front southeast later tonight. Thunderstorms,
some severe, seem likely across our northern cwa, basically north of
Highway 50. The namdmg5, nmm-east, and arw-east models all depict a
quasi-linear line of convection forming in our northwest counties
about 03-04z, and moving east as the line develops south. Thus, I
reduced the probability of precipitation prior to 03z drastically, thinking this will be
primarily an overnight event. Wind damage may be the greatest
hazard, but the MUCAPE values per the nam40 model will increase
after 00z and reach as high as 1500 j/kg north of I-70 tonight by
06z. Heavy rain will also be a possibility, but I thought the wind
hazard should be more significantly emphasized. I did not change
min temperatures tonight, sticking with upper 40s in the Syracuse and
Scott City areas, the middle 50s from Larned to Dodge City to Meade,
and as high as the lower 60s in the Pratt and Medicine Lodge

On Thursday, the east half of our County Warning Area will have a 20 to 30 percent
chance for less severe thunderstorms, and these chances will slide
east as the upper trough moves eastward also. I exited the storm
chances by 21z, even though our ict neighbors to the east hang on to
small chances for thunderstorms a couple hours longer than we do.
The cold air is coming, and all our weather forecast office neighbors appear to agree.
Maximum temperatures on Thursday will only reach the upper 60s along
the Colorado border and in the Garden City and Hays areas. In our
southeast zones where the front will exit the latest, maximum temperatures in
the Ashland, Coldwater and Medicine Lodge areas will top out in the
lower 70s Thursday. Also, it will be quite breezy Thursday, with
north winds at 20g30mph, but they should stay shy of the \soon to be
gone\ Wind Advisory criteria.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 220 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough lifting
northeast out of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region
tonight while a larger scale trough drops southeast out of Canada
into the upper Midwest. Drier and cooler air will filter southward
into western Kansas Thursday night in wake of a frontal passage
associated the initial shortwave pushing through. A secondary surge
of cooler dry air associated with the larger scale trough will move
through western Kansas early Friday morning. As a result, the
chances for precipitation across western Kansas are unlikely through the
weekend as a northwesterly flow aloft develops across the western
High Plains.

A second frontal passage in as many days early Friday morning will
help drop high temperatures well below normal Friday afternoon.
Arctic high pressure sliding southeastward across the northern
plains during the day will usher a much cooler air mass into the
region with 850 mb temperatures down into the single digits(c) across
central Kansas to near 10c in extreme southwest Kansas. Look for
highs generally up into the lower to middle 60s(f). A gradual warming
trend is then likely through the weekend as a northwest flow aloft
sets up across the western High Plains.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1215 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

There is a nearly stationary front across southwest Kansas. A
large upper scale trough will cross northern and central Kansas
this evening and overnight, which may bring some strong
thunderstorms with it. Right now, the khys taf site appears to
have the highest chance for convection, but storms can not be
ruled out of either kgck or kddc. Ceilings will lower in the
thunderstorms to the MVFR range, and winds will get quite breezy
from the north near the thunderstorm activity.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 53 70 44 65 / 30 30 0 0
gck 51 69 42 65 / 60 20 0 0
eha 48 69 43 66 / 20 20 0 0
lbl 52 70 44 67 / 20 20 0 0
hys 52 66 40 62 / 70 40 0 0
p28 61 72 48 67 / 30 30 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Burke
long term...jjohnson

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations