Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
646 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
..updated aviation section...
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 155 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
Clear to mostly clear conditions can be expected today as an
upper level ridge axis moves east across the Central High plains.
At the surface a weak cold front will move across western Kansas
during the afternoon and some slightly cooler air is forecast by
the 00z NAM in the 900mb to 850mb level in north central Kansas by
late day. Even with this slight cooling trend the 850mb temperatures
at 00z Sunday suggest afternoon highs will range from the middle 70s
in north central Kansas to the lower 80s south of Highway 56. This
appear reasonable given the abundant sunshine expected.
Tonight this surface boundary will become stationary south of the
Oklahoma border and extend from southeast Colorado into western
Oklahoma. North of this boundary an easterly upslope flow will
develop, and the NAM and GFS indicates the low level moisture will
be on the increase. Depth of the near surface moisture by 12z
Sunday will to be less than 3000ft above ground level across southwest and south
central Kansas so at this time will hold of inserting
precipitation chances, drizzle, tonight. Over west central and
portions of north central Kansas late tonight the the depth of the
moist layer will be marginal for light precipitation. Current
forecast currently have slight chances for precipitation northwest
of a Garden City to rush central line and so will leave the
precipitation forecast as is.
Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 447 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
A stable boundary layer will be in place on Sunday with a lack of
middle level instability as well, which appears well agreed upon
between the GFS and NAM models at this time. Model forecast
soundings and plan views show a saturated lowest 1000-2500 feet while
capped by a dry layer above about the 800 mb level. Alabama in all a
cloudy and cool day with possibly patchy drizzle especially later in
the day as the upper low approached from the southern rockies.
NAM/European model (ecmwf) and GFS ensembles all take the 500 mb low track through
the Texas Panhandle on Monday. That track will put the southern half
of the ddc forecast area on cold conveyor belt/ and upper
deformation axis through Monday evening. A transition from cloudy
and possibly drizzle conditions rain showers an potentially a period
of rain and stronger convection is likely for the southern counties.
The last blend solution increased probability of precipitation to around 70 percent for
these areas. Such a pattern is not very conducive for severe
weather. Coolest daytime temperatures on Monday will be in the south
along the Oklahoma line where the rain is expected.
Broad upper ridging will develop beyond Monday with little obvious
synoptic support for precipitation . Temperatures will exhibit a
warming trend. Model output statistics and model blend highs are
forecast around normal for late April, but warming to the 80s by the
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 645 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
An mesoscale convective vortex was moving eastward into the Missouri Valley, leaving mainly
high clouds across western Kansas which will slowly clear through
the day. Stratus is likely to expand over the area after midnight as
the next wave approaches from the southern rockies.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 79 48 60 43 / 10 10 20 50
gck 78 49 57 43 / 10 20 30 50
eha 78 48 62 43 / 10 10 40 70
lbl 80 50 62 45 / 10 10 30 60
hys 72 46 56 42 / 10 10 20 30
p28 81 51 66 47 / 10 10 20 50