Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
512 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014
..updated for the aviation discussion...
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 258 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014
The latest upper air analysis and early morning satellite images
indicated a shortwave trough diving south/southeast out of western
Montana. This shortwave and associated cold pocket in the middle-levels
will be over the High Plains later today. A steep lapse rate and
upward vertical velocity from the shortwave will help produce scattered weak convection
during the afternoon. The boundary layer will be very dry so that
very little precipitation will reach the surface. The most likely
areas to receive more than a trace will be primarily west and
northwest of my counties. Gridded data will have very low probability of precipitation out
west. With mixing of the boundary layer and the high based
convective elements, surface winds will become gusty, although not
nearly as strong as what occurred Sunday.
After the passage of the shortwave this evening and decoupling of the
boundary layer, winds will drop off quickly and skies will start
to clear. Thus, overnight lows tonight will be 5 to 10 degrees
colder than lows this morning.
Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 225 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014
By Tuesday, southwestern Kansas will be under a long-fetch of
upper level northwesterly downslope flow. An upper trough will have
moved to the Mississippi Valley by then. A large high pressure
system aloft will be off the California and Baja California coast. The upper
flow will transition to a more zonal flow by Thursday, as the
upper trough moves off the eastern coast, and the Pacific high
diminishes in size. This will bring a warm front through most of
our forecast area Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will be warmer
than yesterday's solution, as well. The lower level flow will be
west-southwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour Tuesday, blow lightly from the
northwest Wednesday, and shift to the south on Thanksgiving.
No precipitation is in the extended forecast, as upper disturbances
will be scant and lower level moisture will be limited through
the weekend. Highs will generally range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s Tuesday, and then rise to the middle 50s to middle 60s
from Wednesday through Saturday.
The only time period with any significant cloud cover will be
Tuesday night, with some higher level clouds moving through in
the upper northwest flow. The minimum temperatures will go through
a slow warming trend from Tuesday through Thursday, then level
off. Lows Tuesday should range in the lower 20s, and warm to the
lower 30s by Thursday or Thanksgiving morning, and remain in that
range through Saturday. By Sunday, there could be weak cold front
move through, and low temperatures will be in the lower to middle
Beyond the weekend, there appears to be a large upper trough
approaching the Central Plains by the middle of next week.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 508 am CST Monday Nov 24 2014
You can expect a VFR day today, along with breezy northwest
surface winds in the 15g25kt range. No clouds are overhead this
morning, but a few middle level altostratus around sct120 will move
through late this morning. West to northwest winds around 12 to 13
knots will become northwest at 15 knots gusting to 25 knots after
17z. Winds will become less than 10 kts after 23z this evening.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 51 23 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
gck 50 20 53 27 / 10 10 0 0
eha 50 23 53 30 / 10 10 0 0
lbl 52 22 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
hys 48 22 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
p28 53 23 52 30 / 0 0 0 0