Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan
100 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Aviation...
//discussion...
High pressure over Lake Huron will slide into the eastern Great
Lakes tomorrow...but the influence of this high will
persist...allowing for clear/mainly clear skies and light winds into
tomorrow.
//Dtw threshold threats...
* none
&&
Previous discussion...issued 339 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Short term...today and tonight
Sprawling high pressure system extending from the upper MS valley to
western Quebec will maintain control across the region over the next
24 hours. This will retain a seasonably cooler and more stable
environment as weak low level easterly flow tucked beneath broad middle
level northwesterlies limit the diurnal recovery to simple diabatic
heating provided by strong middle June sunshine. This will translate
into highs of lower to middle 70s...again slightly cooler along The
Thumb with the onshore wind off the cooler waters cutting slightly
into the thermal response. A clear sky...weakening gradient and
dry profile will again promote good radiational cooling. Coldest
locales again dipping into the 40s.
Long term...Thursday through Tuesday
The upper pattern across the northern United States will deamplify
over the next couple of days as the large Pacific northwest low shifts inland
and embedded middle-level impulses trigger episodic convection across
the northern plains. The simultaneous eastward migration and
dampening of the downstream ridge over the central Continental U.S. Will force
Canadian high pressure to exit to the east and force southerly
return flow to spread into the lower peninsula beginning on
Thursday. A noteworthy moderation of temperatures will be the result
as daytime highs rise to 80 for Thursday and solidly into the
middle-80s on Friday, particularly for western portions of the County Warning Area away
from potential Lake Shadow impacts.
A significant transition in the local weather will then commence from
Saturday Onward as middle-level westerlies emerge across the
northern tier in response to the collapse of the middle-level ridge.
This will allow a moist and humid airmass to spill into the region
which should have no problem yielding high temperatures near 90
degrees along with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints. Given southeast
Michigan's prognosticated favorable location along the instability
gradient and nose of the veering low-level jet on Saturday, have
no argument with the ecmwf's suggestion of a convective complex
impacting the area on Sat, particularly given the excellent
continuity observed in recent cycles. With this in mind, leaned
heavily toward a conservative high temperature forecast, around 80
degrees, for Saturday.
The Reservoir of instability and associated severe potential will
continue to build Sunday into Tuesday as a robust zonally-oriented
eml ribbon becomes increasingly well-established across the Great
Lakes. Per the usual, this will also introduce Stout middle-level
capping as evidenced by 00z European model (ecmwf) 850mb temperatures exceeding 20c by 00z
Monday evening. As a result, both hot temperatures and severe
convective potential will be in play for Southeast Michigan from
Sunday Onward. Also Worth noting is that moist boundary layer
conditions will limit overnight lows to the 70s.
Marine...
Canadian high pressure will maintain control across the region
through Thursday. This will provide a stretch of favorable
marine conditions through the end of the week.
&&
DTX watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...none.
Lake Huron...none.
Lake St Clair...none.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none.
&&
$$
Aviation.....Sf
short term...mr
long term....jvc
marine.......mr
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