Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1212 am CDT Fri Apr 25 2014

Discussion...
issued at 225 PM CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

A rather active mid afternoon so i'll be brief. The current activity
is the last round associated with a progressive upr lvl trough that
is now working into the western portion of the County Warning Area. As such, the precip
will continue to move off to the east and should be out of the County Warning Area
by early this evening along with clearing skies. Tomorrow will be a
stellar day despite breezy southwest winds. Relative humidity values should remain
high enough to mitigate the need for a red flag warning across our
western zones.

As for the weekend and the rest of the fcst period... a very large
upr lvl low will develop over the western Continental U.S. And move toward our region.
As it does our chance for storms increases Saturday night through
Monday. At this time the latest suite of nwp depict the possibility
for severe storms on Sunday and perhaps again on Monday. Sunday's setup
could lead to widespread svr, but it is unclear whether our County Warning Area will
see the worst of it as a lot of things need to align - an that
remains unclear at this time. After Monday, the upper level system
Ushers in cooler air and keeps the region unsettled with spotty light
rain showers. Dprog/dt of the GFS and ec sfc temps for Tuesday and Wednesday
have been slightly warmer so hopefully we can avoid a late frost.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1209 am CDT Friday Apr 25 2014

Forecast still on track for VFR conditions through the forecast
period. Expect winds to pick up from the south/southwest through the
afternoon on Friday.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...pietrycha
aviation...Leighton