Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

issued at 307 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

Light showers are spreading into southeast Kansas this afternoon ahead of
a weak upper-level wave over the Texas Panhandle. Most short-range
models weaken this activity quite a bit as it moves into a drier and
more stable airmass over eastern Kansas and western MO, and this is
likely to be the case for much of the evening so that most areas
should only receive a few sprinkles or very light showers through
midnight. One exception may be far northwest MO where there is a bit
more low-level moisture and weak instability that could support an
isolated storm or two.

Better chances for more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
will develop near or shortly after sunrise Monday as thicker low-
level moisture arrives out of Texas and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Shear will be very weak and instability minimal so strong
storms will not be an issue. Any heavy rain will be limited to
brief downpours in slow-moving but short-lived storms.

Cold frontal passage will bring a rapid clearing from northwest to
southeast Monday afternoon and increasing sun should still allow
parts of northwest MO and northeast Kansas to rise into the mid 70s
before the core of the coolest air arrives from the north. Bulk of
this cooler airmass will stay well to the north so that overnight
lows Mon and Tue nights only drop into the mid 40s and temps Tue
still rise to near 70, pretty close to average this time of year.

Increasing southerly flow ahead of the next storm system will send
temperatures back into the lower and middle 70s on Wednesday. GFS and
European model (ecmwf) are coming into better agreement on the evolution of this
upper-wave and have trended a bit quicker with it reaching maturity
to the west and sending a cold front into the area early Thursday
morning. This would keep the highest threat for strong storms well to
our west on Wednesday, although the presence of a strong nocturnal
low-level jet and some elevated instability could still maintain a
threat for strong storms into our area late Wednesday night.

The upper pattern behind Thursday morning's cold front will become
more zonal in nature which will allow slightly cooler temperatures
to filter into the area although conditions will still be close to
average. The next chance for rain will move in for the latter half of
the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 624 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through at least 09z as showers
continue to dissolve across eastern Kansas and thunderstorms remain
in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. A slug of moisture will begin
pushing northeast into the region between 09z-12z, bringing scattered
showers, a few isolated thunderstorms, and MVFR ceilings into the
region. Precipitation will continue for most of the period through
Monday evening. More robust thunderstorms and lower ceilings are
possible Monday, but timing and location of stronger convection is
still a bit uncertain.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...