Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 am CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

Discussion...
issued at 347 am CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

Typical autumn weather is in store for much of the forecast period
with the coolest day occurring today as temps remain approximately 10
degrees below normal for this time of year. However, as surface high
pressure moseys eastward into the Ohio Valley, southerly flow will
return once more by later tonight, bringing warmer temps back in.
Therefore, look for lows tonight to certainly be warmer than this
morning, ranging from the low to mid 30s. From Sunday Onward, 50s to
60s will be the general trend with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Low precipitable water values and 500mb ridge axis traversing through over the
latter half of the weekend will allow for benign weather to remain
settled in until early next week. Excellent moisture transport
advecting in from the south, upper-level jet, height falls, and
surface front all come together Monday into Tuesday, yielding good
rain chances for the forecast area. Could hear some rumbles of
thunder Monday into Monday night as just a bit of instability
accompanies the disturbance. General deterministic/ensemble model
guidance suggests the precip clearing central MO by late Tuesday
night, returning to a quiet weather period. By late in the week,
however, significant 00z model disagreements come into view by
Friday, leaving a relatively low confidence forecast in place for
the early part of next weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 623 am CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout this taf period at
all four terminals. After sunrise this morning, look for southeast-S winds
to increase throughout the day along with mid- to upper-level clouds
to move into the region. The clouds will thicken and lower later
tonight as surface high pressure shifts eastward into the Ohio
Valley, although the clouds will remain in the mid-levels.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...freeze warning until 9 am CDT this morning for ksz025-057-060-
102>105.

MO...freeze warning until 9 am CDT this morning for moz001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...lg
aviation...lg

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations