Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
334 am CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

issued at 334 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015

Water vapor showing well-established northwest flow across the
nation/S Heartland this morning with several individual shortwaves
approaching from the northern High Plains. Fortunately with no
moisture to work with...these disturbances will pass with little
fanfare. Along the sfc...high pressure across western NE this
morning will continue settling to the east-southeast today which
should result in a much less windy afternoon. This will be a
welcomed relief for those with fire weather concerns as dry
conditions will prevail today as temps warm into the lower to middle
70s. Very little to speak of during the overnight period tonight as
dry conditions and limited cloud cover should allow temps to fall
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s early Wednesday morning.

Wx to become more interesting on Wednesday as high pressure exits to
the east and return flow is reestablished following the passage of a
warm front during the mid-morning hrs. Meanwhile...decent pressure
falls off to our west will allow for gusty south winds during the
afternoon with a sharpening frontal boundary beginning to work
through central Kansas and Nebraska. Fcst models continue to show
developing convection along this boundary during the afternoon hrs
with increasing wind fields aloft supporting possible severe wx
development to our northwest during the afternoon. Orientation of
0-6km bulk shear vectors will likely support isolated cells
initially...but as upper flow becomes more parallel to the
strengthening frontal zone by late afternoon/early evening...convection
should take on a linear morphology as it approaches our northwestern
zones Wed night. That said...fcst models continue to highlight
decreasing instability during the evening/overnight period as main
frontal boundary begins to carve its way south across the County Warning Area.
Additionally...models continue to advertise the heaviest activity
occurring behind the front with main inflow remaining parallel to the
frontal boundary. This should limit the overall severe threat across
our zones as boundary layer stabilization occurs immediately behind
the front. The exception will be across the far northwest where any
pre-frontal activity may be surface based prior to being undercut by
the approaching boundary. Also of concern will be the potential for
highly efficient rainfall production as slow frontal movement
combines with precipitable water values of 3 to 4 Standard deviations above normal.
As stated above...low-level inflow parallel to the front combined
with the release of elevated instability could lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Would not be surprised if
rainfall totals exceed 1-2" in some locations.

Front to slowly move through the area Thursday morning with precip
gradually coming to an end from north to south through the day.
Another weak shortwave to approach from the west Thursday night which
may result in some additional light shwrs however limited moisture
may keep any shwr activity at Bay. Rain chances look to increase on
Friday as another disturbance tracks east along the stalled front to
our south. Beyond this...much of the weekend looks to remain dry and
seasonable with rain chances increasing early next week as another
front begins to work through the plains/lwr Missouri Vly.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1149 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations