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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1128 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Aviation...
VFR with light winds overnight. A few clouds are possible tomorrow
afternoon...otherwise look for south winds around 07-10kt after 17z.
Model guidance indicates a bit more return Gulf flow Sunday
night...so included MVFR ceilings at kaus and ksat for the 30 hour
tafs...beginning at 10z Monday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 800 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

Aviation...
VFR with light winds overnight. A few clouds are possible tomorrow
afternoon...otherwise look for south winds around 07-10kt after 17z.

Previous discussion... /issued 323 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...a middle and upper level
ridge was centered over Texas this afternoon. Clear...warm and dry
conditions prevailed across south-central Texas. Fog will be possible
early Sunday morning across portions of the coastal plains. The
ridge will flatten across south-central Texas on Sunday as a
northern stream trough across the Pacific northwest moves east
into The Rockies. High temperatures a degree or two cooler cooler
Sunday...but still warm and above normal...under sunny skies.

Long term (monday through saturday)...increasing low level
moisture and southerly low level jet will lead to stratus
development along the Escarpment late Monday night and Tuesday
morning. The aforementioned upper level trough will move across
the central and northern plains Monday and Monday night...sending
a weak cold front into Texas. The weak front may eventually enter
northern areas of the County Warning Area Tuesday night and stall over central or
southern areas on Wednesday. Moisture depth and forcing is
lacking...and therefore will only keep probability of precipitation at slight chance.
Slightly cooler Wednesday as the front washes out over the area.

The upper level pattern amplifies Thursday into Friday...with
a ridge to the west and trough to the east...sending a cold front
through the area Thursday night into Friday. The European model (ecmwf) and CMC
continue to be slightly sharper with the amplification of the
ridge into central Canada...resulting in a deeper trough
developing across the eastern Continental U.S. And Great Lakes...and a
stronger cold front through south-central Texas Thursday night.
The GFS is weaker and slightly farther east with the trough. Have
followed a consensus approach for now...with a slight chance pop
Thursday and Thursday night and cooler conditions Friday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 88 63 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 87 57 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 60 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 - -
Burnet Muni Airport 86 61 87 61 84 / 0 0 0 - -
del Rio International Airport 87 61 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 86 61 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 - -
Hondo Muni Airport 84 54 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 88 59 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 87 60 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 - -
San Antonio International Airport 88 62 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 89 60 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 - -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...26
synoptic/grids...05

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