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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
713 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

Update...
please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...
can/T rule out some patchy fog this morning through 14z and we
have included tempo MVFR at kaus with tempo IFR at kdrt. We could
see some light rain through 15z...but coverage will remain limited
and have opted to not include in the forecast at this time.
Otherwise...plenty of middle-level moisture remains in place today.
VFR skies are expected with lowest cloud bases around 5-6k above ground level
through mid-evening. Moisture levels decrease overnight and this
will result in decreasing cloud cover.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 333 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014/

Short term (today through friday)...
an upper level trough moves to the east this morning ending the
showers currently over parts of south central Texas. An upper
level ridge builds into Texas tonight and Friday. Temperatures
will be only slightly above average today due to lingering middle
level clouds and then warm to well above average Friday under
ample sunshine.

Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
the upper level ridge persists Saturday and then flattens Sunday
with a zonal flow aloft by Monday. Southerly lower level flow
strengthens by Monday for a return of night and morning low clouds.
Well above daytime temperatures are expected with some highs around
90. An upper level trough moving across the central rockies and
plains forces a cold front south into central Texas Tuesday. The
front drifts south across south central Texas Wednesday. The GFS
develops isentropic lift to generate some showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday while the European model (ecmwf) and navgem do not. This is due to an
upper level trough. Will maintain the slight chance probability of precipitation currently
for Wednesday. Although...there is not a consensus and consistency
among the models.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 83 62 87 63 89 / 10 - 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 83 57 87 57 88 / 10 - 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 60 88 60 89 / 10 - 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 82 60 85 60 87 / 10 - 0 0 0
del Rio International Airport 83 62 86 62 86 / 10 - 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 81 60 87 61 88 / 10 - 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 85 58 88 57 88 / 10 - 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 84 59 87 59 88 / 10 - 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 83 58 87 60 88 / 10 - 0 0 0
San Antonio International Airport 86 63 88 64 89 / 10 - 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 86 62 89 62 89 / 10 - 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...24
synoptic/grids...04

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