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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
339 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016

Short term (today through sunday)...
a few showers and thunderstorms will be on the southeastern edge of our
coastal prairie counties at daybreak...moving east. The rest of
today will be mostly sunny and breezy...with strongest winds
hugging closer to a departing upper low...or along and east of
Highway 16. The winds should subside quickly after dusk...and the
accompanying dry air should lead to efficient cooling to within a
few degrees of the freezing mark over most of the area. The next
upper disturbance is expected be much broader and deeper...but
will only provide subsidence over this part of Texas with a strong
front approaching south central Texas in the early evening.

&&

Long term (sunday night through friday)...
the cold front should enter northernmost parts of the forecast
area between 6 and 8 PM...based on some the higher res models that
reach that far out in time. The timing could be significant should
the front accelerate and arrive while mixing is still able to keep
relative humidity values low. For now the main fire weather concerns are for
Monday as discussed below. The model trends continue to shift the
broad eastern US trough farther east with each run...which is
resulting in further softening of the temperature impact behind
the front. Plenty of dry air should settle in and make for another
cold morning Tuesday morning...but the warming trend will get a
quick start as the upper ridge replacing the northerly flow aloft
over Texas will bring low level westerly winds...good for some
downsloping. The rest of the work week looks to be well above
early Feb normals for at least the daytime...with persistent
southerly nighttime winds to gradually catch up min temperatures and relative humidity
values as well by late next week. By the weekend...low clouds and
high dewpoints will be abundant...while a developing Pacific
trough looks promising to bring some needed rain chances next
Sunday into early next week.

&&

Fire weather...

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
expected over the western half of this area...or from Highway 16 to
near a Llano to San Marcos to Cuero line. Winds should subside
before lowest humidities are observed...so do not believe a rfw is
warranted. Elevated fire weather conditions could develop again
over The Hill Country as gusty southwest winds develop ahead of
the next disturbance and cold front. The front is not expected to
produce elevated fire weather conditions initially due to higher
overnight humidities...but the stronger mixing and winds during
the daytime Monday is expected to produce elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions over the eastern two-thirds of
south central Texas.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 59 36 68 37 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 60 30 66 37 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 63 33 66 37 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 57 32 67 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio International Airport 66 33 71 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 57 31 66 36 58 / - 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 65 29 69 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 61 32 66 37 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 61 35 65 38 60 / 20 0 0 0 0
San Antonio International Airport 63 34 68 38 63 / - 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 65 34 69 39 64 / - 0 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...24
synoptic/grids...Oaks

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