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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1235 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014

Aviation...
skies are clearing rapidly from west to east. Sat and ssf still
have MVFR ceilings as the tafs are issued...but will scattered out within
the next 30-60 minutes. Through the afternoon and evening
conditions will VFR at all terminals. Ceilings will drop to MVFR/IFR
overnight at all terminals before rebounding to VFR late morning
Thursday. A cold front will approach the region during the day
Thursday and there will a slight chance for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain in Austin
and San Antonio...but probability is too low include in the tafs.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 937 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014/

Update...
a large blanket of strato cumulus at about 1000 to 2000 feet covers
much of south central Texas this morning. There are few locations
where ceilings are around 500 feet. This is happening due to the
increased of low level moisture across the area in combination
with light winds. However...winds will pick-up and mix-down late
this morning and cloud bases will lift to about 4000 feet for
partly cloudy skies. Have increased cloud coverage out west for
next few hours...but overall forecast package remains intact.
Updated zones out shortly.

Previous discussion... /issued 420 am CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014/

Short term (today through thursday)...
early morning surface observations show plenty of low-level
moisture in place across south central Texas with dew points in
the middle 60s to lower 70s. This moisture has resulted in patchy
fog development and we will retain the mention of fog in the
current forecast. We have also opted to expand the mention of
patchy fog farther west into The Hill Country. Otherwise...
another warm day is anticipated with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Can/T completely rule out a few afternoon showers and
storms over the coastal plains and based on the hi-res arw and
nmm...we/ll mention a 20% chance for rain over this region. The
hi-res model also suggest some convection is possible over the
lower trans Pecos region. For now...we/ll keep the chance of rain
out of Val Verde County as chances remain low. For tonight...a
strengthening low-level jet could lead to some isolated rain
showers after midnight for areas east of Highway 83. Only isolated
showers are expected and we/ll keep rain chances low. On
Thursday...the models continue to show a fairly potent middle-level
shortwave trough moving into northern Texas. We could see showers
and thunderstorms develop ahead of the cold front on Thursday
afternoon as daytime heating remains Stout and southwesterly flow
aloft increases.

Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
the southern portion of the above mentioned middle-level trough and
an associated cold front will move across south central Texas
during the late evening and overnight hours. Although most of the
stronger dynamics will remain north of our region...a few strong
to severe thunderstorms may accompany the cold front. We/ll
mention the possibility for areas generally along and north of
Highway 71 in the latest hazardous weather outlook. The main
concern with any severe thunderstorms that manage to develop will
be hail and damaging winds. In addition... given moisture pooling
ahead and along the front...we could see some locally heavy
rainfall. Locally heavy rain appears most favored for areas east
of a Kerrville to Pearsall line. Storm total rainfall amounts will
generally average one quarter to one half inch...with locally
higher amounts of around 2". Rain chances drop quickly behind the
cold front on Friday and we/ll go with a dry forecast for all
areas... except across our far southern zones. Temperatures cool
to below normal levels on Friday and Saturday with northerly
surface winds. Southerly flow returns on Sunday and a warming trend
will continue into early next week. As moisture spreads back into
the region...we/ll see an increase in cloud cover. For now...we/ll
keep the forecast dry for most areas...but can/T rule out a few
showers and storms over the coastal plains late in the forecast
period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 94 65 83 56 / 10 20 50 - 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 72 94 65 82 53 / 10 20 50 - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 95 67 86 55 / 10 20 50 - -
Burnet Muni Airport 73 92 62 84 53 / 10 30 40 - 0
del Rio International Airport 74 94 67 86 58 / - 20 10 - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 75 93 63 83 53 / 10 20 50 - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 74 96 65 88 55 / 10 20 50 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 73 94 66 84 55 / 10 20 50 - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 75 94 70 83 57 / 10 20 50 - -
San Antonio International Airport 77 95 69 86 58 / 10 20 50 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 75 96 69 87 58 / 10 20 50 - -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...05
synoptic/grids...17
public service/data collection...32

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