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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1134 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

Aviation...
rain has become more isolated around del Rio and chances will
remain too low to mention anything in the taf for now.
Otherwise...MVFR ceilings are expected once again in the morning for
del Rio as the best low-level moisture remains confined along and
near the Rio Grande. Otherwise...VFR is expected for the
remaining taf sites and light easterly flow will continue.

Hampshire

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 924 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/

Update...
light showers continue across the Rio Grande...especially over Val
Verde County. This activity will linger through late tonight along
the Rio Grande plains while most of south central Texas remains dry.
Rainfall accumulations will generally range from a trace to fee
hundredths of an inch.

Previous discussion... /issued 330 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/

Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...
a shallow middle level upper trough over Texas and New Mexico will
gradually flatten as it moves east across Texas over the next 2 days.
Dry surface conditions over the eastern half of south central Texas
will limit the amount of precipitation this system will be able to
generate as it weakens. Clusters of weak showers and a few
thunderstorms will cover much of northern Mexico...with scattered
light to moderate rains expected to spill over into the southern
Edwards Plateau tonight. Models show the loosely defined trough
axis to not cross into south central Texas until late Wednesday
night. However...significant clouds spilling east from this area
should curb high temperatures over western sections for Wednesday
and limit the overnight cooling potential over these areas as
well.

Long term (thursday through tuesday)...
model consensus shows the trough axis will bring the most
coverage of light precipitation chances to south central Texas early
Thursday before forcing becomes too weak for precipitation late in
the day. Upper ridging in the wake of the weak troughing feature
increases over the southwestern US by Friday...leaving a weak surface
pressure field and mild and dry weather for the weekend. Another
shallow trough is projected over the western US early next week which
should increase southerly winds Sunday into Tuesday. The next
trough has a better chance to bring a cold front and possibly a
chance of rain for Tuesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 60 83 61 82 61 / - - - 10 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 55 83 56 82 55 / - - - 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 58 85 59 85 59 / - - - 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 58 82 59 82 58 / - 10 10 20 10
del Rio International Airport 64 83 66 83 62 / 20 10 20 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 58 82 58 82 58 / - - - 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 58 85 59 85 57 / - 10 10 20 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 57 84 58 83 58 / - - - 10 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 59 85 59 83 57 / - - - - -
San Antonio International Airport 60 86 63 84 63 / - - 10 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 60 87 61 86 62 / - - 10 10 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...29
synoptic/grids...17

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