Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
1008 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Update...
return flow pattern will become well established today. Low clouds
currently moving ashore across south Texas will develop/move into south-
central Texas by the afternoon/evening as moisture advection increases due to
the return flow. Meanwhile...cirrus will continue to spill over a flat
broad ridge axis anchored to the west. As a result...will call for
mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies for today. The forecast temperatures look on
track based on current trends and forecast soundings. Gusty southeast
winds (up to 25-30 knots at times) can be expected across the western
areas. This along with low humidities will produce at least elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon for primarily Val Verde County.
Overall...little to no changes were needed to the previous forecast
package.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 614 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014/

Aviation...
VFR conditions should continue at all taf sites today through
this evening. A low cloud deck with MVFR ceilings will begin to form
between 06z-09z tonight as result of a moist return flow from the
Gulf. IFR ceilings may be possible at I-35 sites by 12z. Patchy br and
dz could also occur...dropping visibility to 5sm in that time period.
Current light and variable surface winds will become more
southerly and increase in speed to 12 to 22 knots this morning as
the surface pressure gradient tightens across the region. Wind
speeds will diminish to to 8 to 12 knots after o2z.

Previous discussion... /issued 348 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014/

Short term (today through thursday)...
surface ridge is moving off to the east with southerly lower level
flow returning to south central Texas early this morning. Many
areas are a bit warmer than last night out west while areas closer
to ridge are a little cooler in the east with lighter winds. Some
low lying spots may flirt with freezing near sunrise. Warming and
moistening trend begins today. Low clouds will return overnight.
An upper level trough passes to the north of our area Thursday to
generate lift for isolated showers in the east.

Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
isolated showers continue Thursday night as the trough moves off
to the east. The trough drags a weak front/surface boundary across
our area stalling just south and west of our area on Friday. This
in combination with the approach of another upper trough generates
isolated showers over the Rio Grande plains Friday afternoon into
Friday night. The trough moves across Texas this weekend. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms spread from west to east
with greatest coverage Saturday night into Sunday. Trough moves
off to the east Sunday night with showers and thunderstorms
ending. Weak upper level ridge takes hold for Monday into Tuesday.
Will not mention probability of precipitation. However...can not rule an isolated shower
or two due to moist airmass. A slow warming trend resumes this
weekend with a little more significant warming next week.

Fire weather...
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
over Val Verde County this afternoon as humidities fall to near
20 percent with southerly winds increasing to 15 to 25 miles per hour and
gusty.

Climate...
Austin Bergstrom has a new record low of 35 for today April 16th.
The old record was 37 set in 2007. The temperature will likely fall
a little more by sunrise. The other climate sites will remain well
above their records for today.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 72 55 74 58 80 / 0 - 20 10 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 72 52 75 57 79 / 0 - 20 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 55 77 58 81 / 0 - 10 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 70 53 72 56 78 / 0 - 20 10 10
del Rio International Airport 77 57 85 61 83 / 0 - - - 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 71 52 73 57 78 / 0 - 20 20 10
Hondo Muni Airport 76 56 82 61 84 / 0 - 10 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 54 75 58 80 / 0 - 10 10 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 73 55 75 58 80 / 0 - 20 20 10
San Antonio International Airport 74 57 79 60 83 / 0 - 10 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 75 58 81 61 83 / 0 - 10 10 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mb/99...short-term