Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
527 am CST Thursday Nov 27 2014

Aviation...
concerns for this forecast period will be the winds shifting today
and development of low clouds after 09z Friday. For today dry air
and weak pressure gradient will provide VFR conditions. Will see
light northerly flow this morning...becoming easterly this
afternoon and southerly tonight. A few models...along with the
simulated WRF are showing the development of low clouds across the
Rio Grande plains after 06z and spreading north and east through
12z. This fast return of low clouds can be overdone by the models
at times. Will go ahead and include MVFR/IFR conditions after 09z
west and 10-13z east.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 358 am CST Thursday Nov 27 2014/

Short term (today through friday)...
cold front has moved through south central Texas with surface high
pressure settling in over our area. Temperatures will be up to 10
degrees cooler than yesterday and fall back to below average today
due cold advection in spite of sunny skies. Surface high moves off
to the east by this evening allowing southerly lower level flow to
return. Moisture increases leading to some low clouds Friday
morning and then warming trend begins on Friday with temperatures
back above average.

Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
southerly lower level flow strengthens this weekend with night
and morning low clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine and well
above average temperatures. On Sunday...a weak upper level trough
moving across southern Texas and the low level jet may generate
isolated showers across far eastern areas. An upper level trough
moving east across the far northern United States and southern
Canada this weekend forces a cold front south. European model (ecmwf)/GFS/Gem bring
the front through south central Texas on Monday while navgem keeps
the front north of our area. Will go with the GFS/ECMWF/Gem as the
density of the cold airmass should allow the front to move through
our area. Moisture convergence along the front is sufficient for
isolated showers along and east of I-35 on Monday. Temperatures
will fall back to below average by Tuesday. European model (ecmwf) and navgem show
a stronger trough moving across the plains on Wednesday forcing
another cold front south across south central Texas. The GFS shows
a weak trough and no frontal passage. Will favor the GFS for now
as it has been more consistent with a warming trend on Wednesday.
The low level jet may generate some isolated showers on Wednesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 64 42 71 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 63 38 71 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 42 72 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 -
Burnet Muni Airport 61 40 69 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 -
del Rio International Airport 66 43 70 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 61 39 70 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 -
Hondo Muni Airport 67 41 71 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 65 41 72 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 64 43 71 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 10
San Antonio International Airport 66 45 71 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 -
Stinson Muni Airport 66 45 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...10
synoptic/grids...04

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations