Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
656 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

strong southeasterly flow in the low levels continues this
evening. This is bringing moisture in from the Gulf and setting up
conditions for low ceilings later tonight. Expect ceilings to drop to MVFR
and then IFR at aus...Sat...and ssf. Ceilings should start to lower
around 06z and fall to IFR around 10z. Then conditions will
improve late morning Thursday. Drt should remain VFR through the period.


Previous discussion... /issued 301 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014/

Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...
upslope flow and lift ahead of upper level trough moving east
across The Four Corners region has generated showers/thunderstorms
over the serranias del burro of Mexico. Hi-res models bring some
of these east to near I-35 by midnight prior to dissipation. The
hi-res models have done well lately and will follow them. Lapse
rates and shear suggest some strong to marginally severe storms
are possible and will continue to mention in the severe weather potential statement. Isolated
showers can be expected during the overnight hours. The upper
level trough moves out into the plains states Thursday dragging a
Pacific front east to along and east of I-35 by afternoon. Lack of
upper level dynamics as trough passes well north and warm middle
level temperatures would generally inhibit convective development.
However...convergence along the front and well above average
surface temperatures will allow for isolated showers and
thunderstorms along and east of I-35 in the afternoon with lapse
rates and instability suggesting strong storms are possible.
Showers and thunderstorms will end with sunset Thursday. A drier
airmass will settle into the area behind the front.

Long term (friday through wednesday)...
the front retreats back north on Friday ahead of another upper level
trough moving into the West Coast. Upslope flow and heating will
generate showers and thunderstorms over the serranias del burro and
dryline Saturday afternoon with steering flow taking them east
across the Rio Grande by evening and across the remainder of south
central Texas Saturday night. The upper level trough moves out into
the plains on Sunday and then slowly deepens as it drifts across the
plains Monday to the Mississippi and Ohio valleys Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will drag another Pacific front across south central
Texas to near the I-35 Sunday and to the coast Monday. Moisture
convergence along the front will generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms across eastern areas Sunday and far eastern areas
Monday morning with some strong storms again possible. A warming
trend is expected Friday through Monday...especially Sunday into
Monday due to downslope effects and warm temperatures off the
Mexican plateau. A cold front with some origins in Canada will
surge across south central Texas Tuesday with a cooler airmass and
below average temperatures by Wednesday.

Fire weather...
elevated fire weather conditions are expected due to low humidities
and northwest winds around 10 miles per hour along the Rio Grande into the
Edwards Plateau Thursday afternoon. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible due to low humidities Sunday through
Wednesday with gusty west to northwest winds Sunday into Monday
and breezy north winds Tuesday into Wednesday. Otherwise...wetting
rains will be sparse.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 66 88 64 87 68 / 10 10 - - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 65 88 63 87 67 / 10 10 - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 89 65 88 67 / 10 10 - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 65 88 62 87 68 / 20 10 - - -
del Rio International Airport 69 96 68 94 72 / 20 - - - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 66 87 63 86 69 / 10 10 - - -
Hondo Muni Airport 67 94 65 94 70 / 20 10 - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 65 88 64 87 67 / 10 10 - - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 66 86 65 85 67 / 10 10 - - -
San Antonio International Airport 66 90 66 90 69 / 20 10 - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 66 92 66 91 69 / 20 10 - - -


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...


public service/data collection...33