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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1232 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

widespread MVFR ceilings will slowly lift to VFR later this afternoon
with some areas becoming scattered. IFR ceilings will redevelop late this
evening into the overnight and slowly rise to MVFR Tuesday morning
and VFR in the afternoon. S to southeast winds 7 to 12 kts this afternoon
will decrease to less than 7 kts tonight and then increase to 10
to 16 kts on Tuesday.


Previous discussion... /issued 637 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/

MVFR ceilings have moved over all the terminals this morning. The
Austin and San Antonio airports may occasionally drop to IFR
during the next few hours. Ceilings should improve to VFR late this
morning or early this afternoon at all terminals. The pattern
should repeat tonight with ceilings lowering a little earlier than
they did Sunday.

Previous discussion... /issued 406 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/

Short term (today through tuesday)...
surface observations and radar data from late yesterday evening
revealed a cold front across the Edwards Plateau. This boundary
has become diffuse and has likely weakened over far northern Val
Verde County. Otherwise...the latest 11-3.9 satellite imagery
shows low clouds developing over the central and eastern portions
of the region...while middle and upper level cloud cover increases
from the west. We expect another round of above normal
temperatures today...but given plenty of cloud cover...readings
will not be as warm as yesterday. We have removed the chance for
precipitation today and tonight as the models have trended much
lower with our rain chances. We did keep a chance for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for most of the Rio Grande plains
and southern Edwards Plateau Tuesday afternoon. The models
continue to suggest some late afternoon convection may move into
western Val Verde County. Point soundings indicate the cap will be we/ll keep rain chances fairly low at this time. If
convection manages to move into the Rio Grande plains and southern
Edwards Plateau...a strong storm or two is possible.

Long term (tuesday night through sunday)...
rain chances should will become more widespread Tuesday night as
an upper level trough axis moves across south central Texas. The
trough axis will move east of the region on Wednesday and we/ll
show a decreasing chance of rain from west to east throughout the
day. Warm and dry weather quickly returns on Thursday with highs
ranging from the Lower/Middle 90s along the Rio Grande to the lower
80s east of I-35. Warm temperatures continue on Friday...but with
an expected increase in cloud cover...temperatures should drop a
few degrees. In addition...the medium range models show a cold
front will move into Texas. The European model (ecmwf) remains quicker with the
southward progression of the cold front...while the GFS and dgex
are slower. For now...we/ll follow a blend of the previous
forecast along with the GFS/dgex models and show a slower
progression of the cold front. The front will bring another chance
for showers and thunderstorms to south central Texas for Friday
through most of the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will also cool
behind the cold front with below normal readings expected for the
upcoming weekend.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 82 63 81 63 81 / 10 10 10 40 30
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 79 60 79 61 79 / 10 10 10 40 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 81 60 81 62 80 / 10 10 10 50 30
Burnet Muni Airport 81 61 81 61 80 / 10 10 10 30 30
del Rio International Airport 82 65 82 63 86 / - 10 20 40 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 80 61 80 62 80 / 10 10 10 30 30
Hondo Muni Airport 82 60 82 61 81 / 10 10 10 40 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 80 61 80 62 80 / 10 10 10 50 30
La Grange - Fayette regional 80 62 81 63 80 / 10 10 10 50 50
San Antonio International Airport 81 63 81 63 80 / 10 10 10 50 30
Stinson Muni Airport 82 62 81 63 81 / 10 10 10 50 30


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...


public service/data collection...26

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