Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1136 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014
VFR conditions are prevailing at all taf sites at the present time.
We should see MVFR ceilings at kdrt around sunrise as low-level
moisture continues to remain in place across the Rio-Grande
plains. Forecast soundings for the San Antonio taf sites show very
little low-level moisture and will not include MVFR at this time.
VFR is expected to prevail at all taf sites by the afternoon hours.
Otherwise...light easterly winds will continue through the
Previous discussion... /issued 321 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014/
Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...
isolated showers and thunderstorms continued along the Rio Grande
and near the coastal plains today where an axis of deeper moisture
resides ahead of an upper level low over northwestern Mexico. Have
maintained isolated showers and thunderstorms for the Rio Grande
area in the short term...although the upper level low weakens into
a trough and moves into The Rockies and High Plains. Meanwhile...
drier air moving in from the northeast due to a lower to middle level
ridge over the southeastern plains to lower Mississippi Valley
will keep the remainder of south central Texas with no probability of precipitation.
Slightly above average temperatures are expected.
Long term (wednesday through monday)...
models continue to get in better agreement for the long term with
a progressive pattern. The weakening plains upper level trough
moves further off to the east. An upper level trough currently
over the eastern Pacific is now shown by all models to remain an
open trough as it moves across the plains and Mississippi Valley
middle into late week. The deeper moisture axis shifts back east a
little and have introduced slight chance probability of precipitation for the Rio Grande
plains and western Edwards Plateau for Wednesday night into
Thursday. As this former Pacific trough moves further east it will
encounter the drier air left over from the short term and no probability of precipitation
are mentioned for the remainder of south central Texas as any
rains will evaporate prior to reaching the ground. An upper level
ridge moves across Texas this weekend and daytime temperatures
could get quite warm for late October. The ridge then flattens as
another upper level trough moves across the western states into
the plains next Monday. This trough will drag a cold front across
south central Texas next Monday night. With little moisture...no
probability of precipitation are expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 81 62 84 62 84 / - - - - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 80 57 83 57 83 / - - - - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 60 86 58 85 / - - - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 81 59 82 58 82 / - - - - -
del Rio International Airport 79 66 83 65 84 / 30 20 30 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 81 59 83 60 83 / - - - - -
Hondo Muni Airport 80 62 85 59 85 / 10 - - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 82 60 84 58 84 / - - - - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 82 60 85 58 84 / - - - - -
San Antonio International Airport 84 64 86 61 85 / 10 - - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 85 63 86 59 85 / 10 - - - -