Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
600 PM CST Thursday Dec 12 2013
VFR skies will prevail through the 13/00z taf period. Ceilings at
broken-ovc035-050 developing across the area this evening with isolated
rain showers developing mainly over The Hill Country overnight north-northwest of taf
sites as an upper level trough approaches. Isolated to scattered rain showers can
be expected Friday as the upper level trough moves across the area
with tempo MVFR cigs/vsbys. Will maintain mention at the I-35 taf
sites. Upper level trough moves east leading to clearing skies
Friday afternoon west and evening east. Winds will become S-southeast at
4 to 8 kts at taf sites tonight...then turn to SW Friday evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CST Thursday Dec 12 2013/
Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
middle to upper level clouds are covering all of south central Texas
this afternoon as southwest flow aloft pushes moisture across the
area. These clouds will linger around through Friday as an upper
level trough travels from the Desert Southwest into the Southern
Plains. At lower levels...visible satellite images are depicting
broken to overcast skies pushing to the north-northeast across the Rio
Grande Valley while spreading northeastward toward the San Antonio
area. Latest RUC solution has this low level cloud deck spreading
across most areas of south central Texas by midnight. Overnight
lows will range from the middle to upper 30s Hill Country to lower
40s rest of the area. Late tonight into Friday...chances of rain
will be increasing as the upper level trough above mentioned nears
the Southern Plains. Expect showers to affect the northwest and
northern sections of south central Texas overnight with showers
spreading eastward on Friday. Rain chances will come to an end
late Friday as the upper trough pushes to the east. Rainfall
amounts will generally be from a few hundredths to one quarter
inch...especially across the northeast part of The Hill Country.
Long term (saturday through thursday)...
a dry cold front is expected to push across south central Texas
on Saturday with skies clearing from west to east by the afternoon.
Moderate northwesterly winds are expected in the wake of the front
with wind speeds decreasing late Saturday into Sunday. Several
cool nights are expected in the wake of the frontal passage with
overnight lows in the lower 30s over The Hill Country and middle 30s
rest of the area on Sunday with similar lows Monday morning.
A northwest to zonal flow aloft is anticipated for much of next
week with dry and warming weather conditions in store through
Thursday of next week. Latest GFS and European model (ecmwf) solutions continue to
show another Arctic airmass arriving to the local area between
Saturday and Sunday...December 21 and 22.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 39 56 44 55 33 / 10 40 20 10 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 37 58 42 56 32 / 10 40 20 10 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 40 58 44 57 33 / 10 30 20 10 -
Burnet Muni Airport 37 56 40 52 30 / 20 40 10 - -
del Rio International Airport 40 63 41 60 34 / 10 10 - 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 37 56 42 52 31 / 20 40 20 10 -
Hondo Muni Airport 40 60 43 61 32 / 10 30 10 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 39 59 44 57 33 / 10 40 20 10 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 41 60 47 57 33 / 10 40 30 10 -
San Antonio International Airport 41 58 45 59 34 / 10 30 20 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 43 60 46 61 35 / 10 30 20 10 -
public service/data collection...30