Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1205 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
upper level moisture from the eastern Pacific will continue to
push across south central Texas through late this evening. A
surface boundary is forecast to push across the area tonight with
drier airmass behind it. Cloudy skies will become clear late
tonight continuing through Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail
through the forecast period for most area sites. Kdrt may see MVFR
for few hours this afternoon with VFR ceilings expected afterward.
Winds will be from the northeast 5 to 10 knots along the I-35
sites through this evening and out of the southeast at kdrt. Light
and variable winds are expected late tonight through Wednesday
morning across the area with wind speeds picking up Wednesday
Previous discussion... /issued 543 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015/
stratus with MVFR ceilings generally off the Escarpment will erode to
the southeast as drier lower level air filters into south central Texas.
Have tempo MVFR ceilings at kdrt/ksat/kssf through middle morning as the
edge of the stratus is near those sites. MVFR ceilings linger near the
coastal plains where patchy -radz is possible today into tonight
before eroding early Wednesday morning. Otherwise...considerable
cirrus streams over south central Texas through tonight...then thins
on Wednesday. Surface high gets reinforced on Wednesday. Northerly winds
in the east and southeasterly out west less than 10 kts today...becomes all
northerly at 7 to 15 kts on Wednesday.
Previous discussion... /issued 319 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015/
Short term (today through wednesday)...
cloud cover continues to blanket south-central Texas and should
continue to do so for the remainder of the day. North winds will
continue today keeping temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s for
afternoon highs. Models have trended drier and farther east for
rain chances today and tonight and have trended probability of precipitation downward to
account for this. We should finally see even drier air work into
the area for tomorrow allowing the sun to shine once again.
Another reinforcing cold front will move through the region
Wednesday morning as an impulse of energy rotates around an upper
low located across the mid-west. This front will keep temperatures
in the 50s/60s on Wednesday with mostly clear skies.
Long term (wednesday night through monday)...
with clear skies and light winds Wednesday night and Thursday
night...most locations will likely drop into the 30s for lows with
a freeze possible for the northern Hill Country. Highs will warm
into the lower 60s...allowing the afternoons to be pleasant.
Southeast winds may briefly return this weekend...but another weak
front is expected to move through Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. The GFS is much drier with this front...while the European model (ecmwf) is
showing light amounts of quantitative precipitation forecast. Will continue with the 20 probability of precipitation with
the timing of the frontal passage but any precipitation will likely be very light.
The European model (ecmwf) is also deeper/farther south with the corresponding
upper low and thus a bit cooler with temperatures towards the end
of the extended forecast. Adjusted temperatures downward a bit to account
for this. Otherwise...no major rain chances are in the forecast
for the next 7 day with temperatures mostly remaining below
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 58 44 60 41 61 / 10 10 - 0 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 58 44 61 38 61 / 10 10 - 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 59 45 61 38 62 / 10 10 - 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 58 41 58 37 60 / 10 10 0 0 0
del Rio International Airport 62 47 65 41 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 57 42 59 36 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 61 45 63 36 64 / 10 10 - 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 59 43 61 38 60 / 10 10 - 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 59 46 61 40 61 / 10 20 10 0 0
San Antonio International Airport 61 45 62 39 63 / 10 10 - 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 61 47 62 40 64 / 10 10 - 0 0
public service/data collection...Treadway