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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1101 PM CST sun Mar 1 2015

Aviation discussion...for 06z taf package...
drizzle and light rain will continue for the i35 corridor
terminals for the first few hours of the taf period. Wind fields
should stay up high enough to prevent dense fog tonight but IFR
fog will still be possible along with LIFR ceilings towards morning.
Middle morning return to IFR is expected but as winds decrease
tomorrow...conditions will deteriorate in the evening leaving the
last 6 hours of the period back in LIFR conditions. Aviation
conditions will be poor throughout the taf period.

Tb3



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 829 PM CST sun Mar 1 2015/

Update...
ran a quick update to increase probability of precipitation a bit across the north to
account for current radar trends. Made minor adjustments to the
hourly grids to account for current trends. Updated products have
been sent.

Hampshire

Previous discussion... /issued 539 PM CST sun Mar 1 2015/

Aviation discussion...for 00z taf package...
continued poor aviation conditions for this taf period due to
light rain and drizzle. Areas of br continue through this period
with MVFR and IFR levels fluctuating. Expect LIFR ceilings to develop
again tonight close to the morning hours. But ceilings are currently
sitting at 600 feet as it is so amendments may be needed.

Tb3

Previous discussion... /issued 247 PM CST sun Mar 1 2015/

Short term (tonight through Monday night)...
upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the West
Coast with a zonal pattern over the eastern two-thirds of the
country. Morning soundings showed a strong inversion above the
boundary layer with the lowest 150mb nearly saturated. Surface
winds were from the north to northeast...but above this the flow
was from the south. A frontal boundary extended from a low near
South Padre Island through northern Mexico to The Big Bend. During
this period the upper trough will dig down along the West Coast as
a ridge builds up across the Gulf of Mexico. The isentropic
upglide flow from the southeast will continue through the period.
The frontal boundary will move back north Monday and Monday night
as the surface winds turn to the south. The front will move into
our County Warning Area Monday night. This will mean temperatures will change very
little during the next 36 hours. Continuing chances for light
rain in the short term...particularly over the eastern half of
the area.

Long term (tuesday through sunday)...
models develop a split upper level flow through the week. The
trough off the southwest coast will remain in place while another
trough moves through the middle of the country. In the low
levels...a cold front will develop and move through northern Texas
Tuesday and through our County Warning Area Wednesday. The front will bring a
chance for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Models are
suggesting the chance for heavy rain Wednesday with precipitable water values
sufficiently high. Behind the front much colder air will move in
and this will mean a chance for winter precipitation Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. Models have been inconsistent on
precipitation type...so have gone with a mix for now. The end of
the period will bring weak isentropic upglide for some cloudy...cool
days.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 44 39 49 46 71 / 30 40 20 20 30
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 44 39 50 46 71 / 30 40 20 20 30
New Braunfels Muni Airport 47 41 52 48 72 / 30 30 20 20 30
Burnet Muni Airport 42 36 47 44 71 / 30 40 20 20 30
del Rio International Airport 53 49 57 51 75 / 10 10 10 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 43 37 49 45 71 / 30 40 20 20 30
Hondo Muni Airport 52 44 55 51 72 / 20 20 20 20 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 46 40 50 47 71 / 30 30 20 20 30
La Grange - Fayette regional 47 43 54 51 72 / 40 30 20 20 30
San Antonio International Airport 49 43 54 50 72 / 20 20 20 20 30
Stinson Muni Airport 49 44 54 50 72 / 20 20 20 20 30

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...03
synoptic/grids...29
public service/data collection...00

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