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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
531 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Aviation.../00z taf cycle/

VFR expected to prevail through the period with only high passing
clouds over the region. Winds will be light to calm overnight and
then pick up to near 10 knots from the S/SW by late morning through
Wednesday afternoon. /Allen/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 256 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015/

Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...ridging
aloft...clear skies and a very weak southwest to west wind is
leading to warm temperatures this afternoon. Warm conditions continue
on Wednesday with flattening ridging aloft and south to southwest
low level flow strengthening. Afternoon highs Wednesday again in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Record highs possible tomorrow at Sat
and att (records for tomorrow...Sat: 81 set in 1909 and att: 79
set in 1970).

Long term (thursday through tuesday)...areas of fog possible
along and east of Escarpment Thursday morning...possible dense in
some locations. A weak upper level shortwave moving across the
plains Wednesday and Wednesday night will send a dry cold front
through the area Thursday afternoon. Highs Thursday cooler in the
low to middle 70s and significantly cooler on Friday...only in the
middle 50s north to around 60 south.

Forecast remains complicated over the weekend and uncertain early
to middle part of next week. A southern stream upper level
trough will move into Southern California Thursday night into
Friday...and into northeast Mexico/Baja California California on Saturday.
A lead shortwave will eject out across West Texas Friday and
across the central part of the state Saturday. Low level isentropic
ascent will develop and strengthen across the County Warning Area...with mainly
clouds on Friday...and rain chances developing west to east Friday
night into Saturday. Main forcing skirts through the County Warning Area Saturday.
Models over the past few runs have been bringing a warm front back
through the area during Saturday morning...with potentially the
best precipitation focusing just north of the area...but still chance to
likely probability of precipitation across the ewx County Warning Area. Precipitable waters of 1.2-1.4 inches will be
pooled over the area...unseasonably high for late January. High
end to likely probability of precipitation continue into Saturday night with cold front
moving back south into the area. Have introduced a slight chance
of thunder into the forecast for Saturday and Saturday night.

Drier air works into the area on Sunday into Monday. Models
diverge significantly after that. The European model (ecmwf) brings the northern
stream trough axis through the area Sunday and the aforementioned
southern trough moving well south of the area Monday into
Tuesday...keeping the forecast dry Tuesday into Wednesday. The GFS
continues to keep the southern stream trough well detached from
the norther stream...cutting off into an upper level low over
southern Baja California before ejecting through south-central Texas Tuesday
into Wednesday with significant precipitation chances. For day 7
Tuesday...will only forecast a slight chance pop given
uncertainty.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 47 81 51 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 42 80 48 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 45 81 48 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 45 78 50 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio International Airport 46 80 48 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 45 79 51 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 43 80 46 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 45 81 49 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 46 78 51 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio International Airport 47 81 49 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 45 80 48 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...15
synoptic/grids...05
public service/data collection...33

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