Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
325 am CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
Short term (today through tuesday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed an upper level low over
northern Mexico with southwesterly flow over Texas. At the surface
a stationary front lies off the Texas coast. Surface winds have
become light and variable across south central Texas tonight and
there were still isolated showers. Models are in good agreement on
the upper low moving across south Texas in the short term...but
they are not in agreement on what the result of this movement will
be. GFS has lower probability of precipitation and is drier than NAM and European model (ecmwf).
Thus...have leaned to wetter consensus. Rain chances will end from
west to east tonight as the upper trough axis moves across our
County Warning Area. By Tuesday this feature will be east of US and the upper flow
will turn to the northwest bringing drier air in the upper levels.
A dryline/cold front will be poised to enter our County Warning Area Tuesday and
low level winds will turn to the west and southwest making Tuesday
much warmer with highs 10 to 15 degrees above Monday.
Long term (tuesday night through sunday)...
beginning Tuesday night...the upper pattern will transition to
zonal and then a weak ridge will build over the Southern Plains.
At the surface...a dry cold front will move through the region
Tuesday night bringing drier air. This will also bring
strong...gusty winds which could reach Wind Advisory criteria
Wednesday. Cooler air will settle in behind the front with a
chilly morning Thursday. The upper ridge will move across Texas Thursday
and Friday. Late Friday into Saturday the upper flow will turn to
the southwest as another trough digs into the southwest.
Temperatures will slowly climb through the end of the week. This
will continue through the weekend. Sunday another cold front will
move through our area bringing a chance for rain.
changing air masses later in the week will lead to fire weather
concerns. Tuesday afternoon as temperatures climb the relative
humidity will drop below 25 percent across the western Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande plains. Wednesday winds will reach critical
levels behind a cold front...but relative humidity will recover
above critical levels. Them drier air will once again drop
relative humidity below 25 percent Thursday afternoon across The
Hill Country and Rio Grande plains. This will also be the case
behind the next front on Sunday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 73 50 82 46 65 / 30 20 10 0 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 71 47 80 43 63 / 40 30 10 0 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 48 80 45 64 / 60 30 10 0 -
Burnet Muni Airport 70 45 81 42 61 / 30 20 - - -
del Rio International Airport 64 46 87 49 66 / 30 10 - 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 70 47 79 42 61 / 30 20 10 - -
Hondo Muni Airport 65 47 83 46 68 / 70 20 - - 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 68 48 78 45 62 / 50 30 10 0 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 71 53 77 50 63 / 30 30 - - -
San Antonio International Airport 68 50 83 48 67 / 60 30 10 0 -
Stinson Muni Airport 67 49 82 48 67 / 70 30 10 0 -