Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
skies have cleared out behind the storms this moring. VFR
conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening hours.
Given the amount of moisture still in place both at the ground
level...at the surface...and a bit aloft we expect both fog and
low clouds tomorrow morning. MVFR conditions will return to the
terminals between 07z and 10z. IFR conditions...both ceilings and
visby will be possible at the San Antonio terminals. Conditions
will be slow to improve tomorrow with MVFR returning to all sites
around south central Texas by 15z and VFR by 15z at drt and 18z to
20z at the I-35 terminals.
There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms late tomorrow. The
high resolution models show this activity between 18z and 23z
close to the I-35 terminals. At this point not confident enough
in location and coverage of the activity so will leave out of the
tafs for now.
Previous discussion... /issued 949 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/
convection continues to weaken while moving east this morning.
Given this trend...the Severe Thunderstorm Watch was cancelled.
Rain chances have been reduced and confined to the coastal plains
through the remainder of today. Elsewhere...look for dry weather
with temperatures warming into the 80s this afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 700 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/
area of showers and thunderstorms continues to move east. Expect
no redevelopment behind it. Have removed areas along and west of
an Austin to New Braunfels to Bandera to Crystal City from Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 107.
Previous discussion... /issued 644 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/
another round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
San Antonio area over the next couple of hours. These storms could
produce wind gusts of 30 kts and reduce visible to around 2sm. Not
expecting any convection in Austin or del Rio. Aus should be VFR
through the day and evening. MVFR visible at drt will last until the
late morning then they will be VFR through the rest of the period.
Austin and San Antonio will drop to MVFR overnight tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/
Short term (today through sunday)...
a cluster of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing from del Rio
east along and north of Highway 90. Hi-res models move this
cluster to the east across the remainder of south central Texas
this morning ahead of the dryline. MLCAPES of 2600 j/kg and very
large shear indicate potential for strong to severe storms. Storm Prediction Center
has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107 for much of south central
Texas through 15z or 10 am CDT. Precipitable waters near 1.5 inches indicates some
locally heavy downpours as well. Fortunately...the storms are
rather progressive and widespread flash flooding is not expected.
Some minor flooding is possible where cells train across the same
areas. In the wake of the dryline...a more stable and drier
airmass takes hold for this afternoon into tonight. Well above
average temperatures can be expected today due to westerly
boundary layer flow. Southerly lower level flow returns tonight
into Sunday as an upper level trough currently over the Great
Basin moves across the Desert Southwest. Moisture increases
leading to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across
much of south central Texas. Strong shear and high convective available potential energy could
allow for some strong to severe storms late Sunday.
Long term (sunday night through friday)...
the upper level trough brings the dryline then cold front through
much of the area Monday into Monday evening. Expect showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of it. High convective available potential energy and strong shear
indicate some strong to severe storms are possible along with
locally heavy downpours. A cold front moves through with a drier
airmass. The upper level trough broadens with some wraparound
showers and thunderstorms across central Texas on Tuesday. A drier
airmass for middle to late next week with well below average
temperatures as upper level trough slowly pulls away to the east.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 90 66 87 66 84 / 10 10 30 30 40
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 88 67 86 65 83 / 10 10 30 30 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 67 87 67 84 / 10 10 30 30 40
Burnet Muni Airport 87 63 86 62 82 / - 10 30 40 20
del Rio International Airport 88 65 90 62 87 / - 10 10 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 88 66 86 64 83 / 10 10 30 30 30
Hondo Muni Airport 88 66 88 64 85 / 20 10 20 30 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 88 67 86 66 83 / 10 10 30 30 40
La Grange - Fayette regional 86 69 86 69 82 / 30 10 20 30 50
San Antonio International Airport 89 67 88 67 85 / 20 10 20 30 20
Stinson Muni Airport 88 68 88 68 84 / 20 10 20 30 30
public service/data collection...33