Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
629 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Aviation discussion...for 12z taf period...
latest infrared satellite continues to show 10+ kft ceilings creeping
slightly southward this morning. Expecting this deck to continue
to push southward and result in a broken deck of VFR ceilings through
the majority of the period after middle day. Otherwise...no category
changes expected.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 433 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015/

Short term (today through sunday)...a few changes made to the
short term forecast from previous package...including an increase
in cloud cover late today through Sunday along with a slight
chance for showers tonight and Sunday...mainly along and west of
I-35. The upper level ridge will remain anchored to the west
across northwest Mexico and the Desert Southwest. An upper level
shortwave across the Southern Plains will drop south...around the
eastern periphery of the ridge...into south-central Texas tonight
and Sunday morning. An increase in middle and upper level clouds will
take place later today and tonight from the north.

Precipitation during the day today should remain mainly to the
north of the area...as significant middle level dry air is in place
over the area. As the shortwave approaches later tonight and into
Sunday morning...a few elevated showers will be possible...mainly
across the northern and western half of the area. Enough middle
level moistening should take place across this area to allow for
some of this precipitation to reach the ground. East of I-35 dry
air should limit this possibility. Several models...including the
European model (ecmwf)...nam12...and 4km nmm/nmm and tt WRF do indicate the
possibility of light quantitative precipitation forecast mainly over The Hill Country tonight and
Sunday.

Cloud cover along with lower heights should keep high temperatures a few
degrees cooler Sunday than highs yesterday and today.

Long term (sunday night through friday)...the aforementioned
shortwave dropping south will move southeast of the area Sunday
evening...and into the base of an elongated upper level low
stretching from northeast Texas into the coastal plains. The low
will remain near this general area Monday and Tuesday before
drifting eastward Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge nudges back
to the east. Enough moisture will be in place across the far
southeast zones to allow for isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms each day. Along the I-35 corridor and westward
conditions should remain dry.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 96 73 95 74 96 / - - 10 - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 94 70 93 71 95 / 0 - 10 - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 71 93 72 96 / 0 - - - -
Burnet Muni Airport 95 71 94 72 95 / 10 10 10 - -
del Rio International Airport 98 73 97 73 99 / 0 10 10 - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 95 73 95 73 95 / 10 10 10 - -
Hondo Muni Airport 96 70 93 70 96 / 0 - 10 - 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 94 71 93 72 95 / 0 - - - -
La Grange - Fayette regional 94 71 93 73 94 / 0 0 - 10 20
San Antonio International Airport 95 73 93 74 95 / 0 - 10 - -
Stinson Muni Airport 96 72 93 73 97 / 0 - - - -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...tb3
synoptic/grids...runyen

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations