Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
330 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
very light showers are ongoing across the central and eastern
portions of south central Texas this afternoon. We expect a
continued slight chance for showers tonight as an upper trough axis
translates east and a weak cold front moves in from the north. This
cold front will bring a subtle northeast to easterly wind shift...
but no significant cooling due to a lack of significant cold air
advection behind the front. A brief period of middle-level ridging is
expected on Friday. Most areas will remain dry...except along the
Rio Grande where a few showers may develop in proximity to a middle-
level (700-500mb) Theta-E ridge axis.

&&

Long term (saturday through thursday)...
the flow aloft becomes southwesterly and increases by early Saturday
as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Although the main
upper trough is forecast to weaken as it moves into Texas...there is
a good amount of shortwave activity embedded in this upper trough.
On Saturday...the better lift will likely remain across the southern
Edwards Plateau and nearby Rio Grande plains. We/ll need to watch
these areas for the possibility of strong storms moving off the
higher terrain of Mexico. Middle-level lift should become a little
more widespread across south central Texas on Sunday and we/ll
need to monitor for a few strong storms...especially across The
Hill Country. The upper trough axis continues to weaken and move
east on Monday. We/ll hang on to a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms along and east of I-35 as a weak cold front
approaches from the north. A dry and warm forecast is expected
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as a brief period of middle-level
ridging sets up. Late in the forecast period...the flow aloft is
expected to increase as another trough moves into the plains
states. Model differences are noted...but at this time the trough
axis is expected to remain far enough to our north to warrant a
dry and warm forecast on Thursday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 58 79 57 81 62 / 20 10 10 10 20
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 56 79 55 81 61 / 20 10 10 10 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 56 80 57 82 61 / 20 10 10 10 20
Burnet Muni Airport 56 77 56 79 61 / 20 10 10 10 30
del Rio International Airport 63 82 64 82 64 / 20 20 20 30 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 57 77 57 80 62 / 20 10 10 10 20
Hondo Muni Airport 60 83 59 82 64 / 20 10 10 20 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 56 79 56 80 61 / 20 10 10 10 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 57 80 56 81 62 / 20 10 10 10 20
San Antonio International Airport 59 81 58 82 63 / 20 10 10 20 20
Stinson Muni Airport 60 82 59 83 64 / 20 10 10 20 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...25
synoptic/grids...24
public service/data collection...32