Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1143 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Aviation...
VFR conditions will become MVFR as ceilings of 1-2 thousand feet develop
across the coastal plains into S central Texas including the i35
corridor between 06z and 08z...spreading nwwd into The Hill
Country and toward kdrt by sunrise. Organized thunderstorms and rain across northwest and North
Texas this evening were tracking southeastward and producing outflow
boundaries that will initiate additional rain showers/thunderstorms and rain across S
central Texas through the early morning hours. Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain could
affect the kaus area after 08z into Tuesday as the atmosphere will
remain unstable and remnant outflow boundaries will remain over
the area. Prevailing MVFR ceilings through most of Tuesday morning
becoming VFR most areas by afternoon...however convection could
drift further southward and possibly affect the ksat/kssf taf sites
as well. Give low probabilities and uncertainty...have left
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain out of tafs until more confidence and timing can be
determined. Prevailing S-southeast winds at 5-12 knots...except variable
in and near thunderstorms and rain...with a brief northeasterly wind shift behind outflow
boundaries.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 944 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013/
Update...
a cluster of storms/mesoscale convective system formed this afternoon across north central
Texas ahead of a weak cold front. These storms have produced
several outflow boundaries this evening with one of them passing
over San Angelo within the next few minutes. Current weather forecast
account for showers or thunderstorms associated with these
outflow boundaries to affect parts of the Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country late this evening and during the overnight hours. Some of
these storms could be strong with heavy rains and gusty winds up
to 50 miles per hour. Rest of the area should remain dry overnight. Made
minor adjustments to weather grids and sky conditions for first period.
New updated zones out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 647 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013/
Aviation...
VFR conditions this evening with scattered cumulus at 5-7 thousand feet with
scattered-broken cirrus above and southerly surface winds at 8-12 knots. After 06z
MVFR ceilings developing along the coastal plains into the i35
corridor and spreading into The Hill Country. Ongoing rain showers/thunderstorms and rain in
North Texas this evening...moving southward has the potential to
produce an outflow boundary and result in isolated-scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
developing into central Texas overnight. The lingering boundary could
also result in a focus for redevelopment across the northestern sections
of south central Texas by Tuesday afternoon with heating. Have only
included cumulonimbus in the cloud group for kaus as confidence is low for
now. Convection in West Texas is not expected to affect the western
sections of south central Texas. Otherwise MVFR ceilings Tuesday morning
will lift and scattered to VFR most areas by 16-17z.
Previous discussion... /issued 331 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013/
Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...
an early morning mesoscale convective system that rolled across North Texas has managed to
push an outflow boundary into central Texas. Some cumulus development is
noted across Burnet...Williamson and Lee counties in proximity to
the boundary. We will mention an isolated shower or thunderstorm
this afternoon and early evening...but coverage should remain
limited due to warm middle-level temperatures. Elsewhere...convection
over the lower trans Pecos continues to strengthen this afternoon
and some of this activity may eventually move into the far western
portion of Val Verde County. We will mention isolated convection
through this evening for the above mentioned area. Late tonight into
Tuesday morning...the latest global and hi-res models suggest
another area of organized convection could move across western Texas
into central Texas in the northwest flow aloft. We/ll mention a
slight chance of rain for areas generally north of a del Rio to
Austin line. If the hi-res models verify...rain chances will need to
be pushed farther south...especially if convection manages to send
another outflow boundary into the region.
Long term (wednesday through monday)...
the subtropical ridge axis will likely strengthen over Texas from
middle-week into the upcoming weekend. Most areas will remain dry and
warm with this pattern intact. The exception could be across the
coastal plains on Sunday as sea breeze convection remains possible.
Any tropical activity will likely remain well south of the region
given the persistent ridging aloft.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 97 77 99 76 99 / - 10 20 10 -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 98 76 98 75 98 / - 10 20 10 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 94 75 97 75 97 / - 10 10 10 -
Burnet Muni Airport 94 75 95 74 95 / 10 20 20 20 10
del Rio International Airport 92 77 95 76 95 / - - - - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 96 76 96 74 96 / 20 20 20 20 10
Hondo Muni Airport 93 74 96 75 95 / - - - - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 95 75 97 75 97 / - 10 10 10 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 99 76 97 76 97 / - 10 20 10 10
San Antonio International Airport 93 76 96 76 96 / - - 10 10 -
Stinson Muni Airport 92 75 96 75 96 / - - - 10 -
&&
Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/aviation...01
synoptic/grids...17
public service/data collection...12
