Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
941 am CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013
mostly sunny and cool for the rest of today with few to scattered high
clouds aloft. This afternoon highs will reach the lower 40s across
The Hill Country to middle 50s southwest over the Rio Grande plains.
Latest mslp analysis map shows a high pressure centered over
northeast Texas with northerly winds pushing across south central Texas.
This surface high pressure will push to our east tonight and
Wednesday with light winds and mostly clear skies expected
overnight for another hard freeze over parts of The Hill Country
and northern counties. Freezing temperatures are expected for
rest of the area with the exception of southwest Rio Grande
plains with lows in the middle 30s. Next chances of rain are expected
late Thursday into Friday as surface southerly flow returns and an
upper level trough moves across North Texas. Wintry precipitation
is not expected with this event.
Previous discussion... /issued 613 am CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013/
please see the 12z aviation discussion below.
VFR conditions are expected at area taf sites through the current
forecast period. Low clouds continue to dissipate early this
morning as dry air moves in from the north. Northerly winds around
10 kts will continue through this afternoon...then decrease to
around 5 kts by early evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 351 am CST Tuesday Dec 10 2013/
Short term (today through wednesday)...
cold and dry air advection will continue today in the wake of the
passage of a cold front. Clouds have begun to decrease across the
region and will continue to do so throughout the day as an upper
level trough overhead moves off to the east. Highs will range from
the low 40s across northeastern portions of the region to the low
50s out west. Dry surface ridging will build into the area
overnight...allowing lows to once again fall below freezing across
the County Warning Area. Highs on Wednesday will be slightly warmer as mostly
sunny/partly cloudy skies prevail.
Long term (wednesday night through monday)...
temperatures will begin to moderate during the middle of the week
as the flow aloft transitions from northwesterly to nearly zonal.
An upper level low currently off the coast of Southern California
will begin to move eastward during the middle of the week. The low
will open-up into a trough as it slides into the Desert Southwest.
The trough will then eventually move across the Southern Plains on
Friday. Chances for rain will begin to increase from the west late
Thursday...and continue through Friday as the trough approaches
south central Texas. Chances for rain will taper off Friday night
as the trough axis moves off to the east. A secondary short wave trough
will push into the area on Saturday...bringing northerly winds and
Temperatures through the end of the week will be cooler than
average. The drier air settling into the region over the weekend
will allow high temperatures to warm to near normal (upper 50s to
low 60s)...but lows will be seasonably cool. A warming trend is
expected early next week as low level flow becomes southeast/southerly.
Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be near...to slightly
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 45 28 52 35 51 / 0 0 - - 10
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 44 23 51 32 50 / 0 0 - - 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 47 27 53 34 52 / 0 0 - - 10
Burnet Muni Airport 42 27 49 29 47 / 0 0 - - 10
del Rio International Airport 52 32 53 37 53 / 0 0 0 - 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 42 27 49 30 48 / 0 0 - - 10
Hondo Muni Airport 52 28 55 37 54 / 0 0 - - 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 46 26 52 34 51 / 0 0 - - 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 45 30 52 37 51 / 0 0 - - 10
San Antonio International Airport 49 30 54 37 53 / 0 0 - - 10
Stinson Muni Airport 50 31 54 40 54 / 0 0 - - 10
public service/data collection...32