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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1152 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015

Update...
issued at 1151 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015

Radar continued to show precipitation moving into the northwest zones this
evening and dissipating from high based showers. However surface
reports did not indicate precipitation was reaching the ground. Precipitation
continued to dissipate upstream in southern man. Will not mention
probability of precipitation over northwest zones for the rest of the night. Also precipitation has
dissipated over the eastern zones. Will add patchy fog in the
east. No other updates made at this time.

Update issued at 958 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015

Upper level trough over the area will shear off to the northeast
tonight. Relatively warm air was over the northwest zones along with
a moist layer around 700 hpa. Satellite loop indicated patchy cloud
layer over northwest zones. Will raise temperatures in the southeast zones
for tonight. Rain in the eastern zones continues to slowly
dissipate.

Update issued at 703 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015

Satellite loop/radar indicated some convective cellular clouds over
the far western zones. Radar indicated rain in the eastern zones and
was decreasing in intensity and dissipating slowly on the southern
edge. Expect precipitation to dissipate and shift east this evening. Little
change to current forecast.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 318 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015

Middle-level low will continue to slowly weaken and/or propagate east
this evening...which will gradually diminish the showers across
wc Minnesota. An additional area of showers (isolated) starting to
develop across southeast ND...in an area of weak low level
convergence/instability. This activity expected to remain weak
(mlcape @200 j/kg) and diminish with loss of heating.

The only other chance for isolated showers will be across the
northern forecast area Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of weak surface
convergence/instability.

Maximum temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to temperatures across the
northern forecast area today where there is less cloud cover. Airmass
temperature and other conditions will be similar.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 318 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015

Wednesday-Thursday...Wednesday will be very similar to
Tuesday...with the isolated afternoon shower chances as well as
temperatures. A stronger precipitation signal shows up on most guidance
for Wednesday night into Thursday. A stronger upper wave ejects
out of the Pacific northwest...with warm air advection precipitation appearing
likely. Rain amounts likely less than an inch but more or less
widespread. Instability very minimal and kept thunder chances very
low (likely rain with isolated thunder).

Thursday night-Monday...period begins with active pattern and lw
trough to the west with a departing surface low over western Ontario and
showers/isolated storms mainly in the east. Showalters appear to
be slightly positive Thursday night becoming more stable on Friday...so
expect mainly rain showers. Surface high then drops into northern tier
and brings dry weather for the weekend...before return flow sets
up in western Dakotas Sunday. Warm advection activity may lift to the
northeast into mb and miss most of County Warning Area...per European model (ecmwf)...however GFS
brings activity across the north. Temperatures will consequently rise
into upper 60s sun and low 70s on Monday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1151 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015

VFR conditions were across the area. Mostly high clouds were over
eastern zones. Ceilings ranged from 45 hundred feet at saz to above 12
thousand feet at bde. Middle level clouds around 11 thousand feet were over
parts of northeast ND and mostly clear elsewhere. VFR conditions are
expected for the rest of the night and Tuesday.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...hoppes
short term...tg
long term...tg/speicher
aviation...hoppes

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