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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
641 PM CST Monday Nov 30 2015

Corrected day reference from Wednesday to Tuesday in the update

issued at 635 PM CST Monday Nov 30 2015

Incoming guidance...radar imagery...and observations are in line
with the current forecast. Only update will be to increase probability of precipitation to
near 100% through 06z where confidence is high that snow will
occur. Still like the idea of multiple snow bands rotating through
the region...with 1-3 inches this evening...and another 1-3 inches
on Tuesday. Winter Weather Advisory fits this scenario well.


Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 250 PM CST Monday Nov 30 2015

Forecast challenge concerns primarily upcoming snow event and
temperatures. Models in good agreement and will follow persistence
and regional guidance.

Really no plans in changing ongoing headlines through Tuesday.
Surface low over eastern NE will lift into S Minnesota by morning. Initial
main snow band just south of the forecast area to lift into roughly the
south half of the forecast area tonight. Ridge of high pressure along inl
border area will limit snow potential north of Highway 2. Favored
period of isentropic lift with lowest condensation pressure
deficits will be until 06z when features gradually begin to
weaken. Minimal cooling through the column so temperatures not to
drop off too far.

Surface low drifts across S Minnesota Tuesday so expect -sn to continue
across mainly southeast half of the forecast area. With condensation pressure
deficits rising feel -sn will be on the light side. Total
accumulations could reach 6 inches or so by evening but during an
extended period of time. Temperatures will remain relatively mild
for low snow ratios and wind not to be a factor for blowing or
drifting so feel advisory will handle expected impacts.

Snow will taper off across the east-southeast late Tuesday evening.
Temperatures will hinge on any clearing which may be limited to
the far northwest forecast area.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 250 PM CST Monday Nov 30 2015

Milder air will spread into the region for Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will be governed by snow cover. Temperatures
Wednesday will be relatively cool with fresh snow across the
south half. There will be solar to eat away edges of lighter
snow cover. Thursday will again see solar with potential for more
areas to get above freezing.

For Thursday night through Monday...the entire period shaping up to
be a stretch of dry weather with temperatures warmer than normal. However
temperatures will likely hinge on snowfall in the short term as conditions
can change markedly when there is snow on the ground. As far as the
bigger picture...looking at ridging initially with a dry short wave
passage on Sat. Pattern gets a little more muddled after this


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 635 PM CST Monday Nov 30 2015

Snow bands will continue to rotate through the region...with
fluctuating visibility. By midnight...expect IFR ceilings southern valley
into the kbji area...with a transition to MVFR and then VFR ceilings
to the northwest. These conditions will hold through much of the


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST Tuesday for ndz038-039-

Minnesota...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST Tuesday for mnz002-003-


short term...voelker
long term...godon/voelker

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