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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
952 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

issued at 952 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

After coordinating with eastern border offices have removed the
afternoon precipitation chances completely. The lingering showers in the
kbji to kbde area should move off to the northeast in the next
hour or two. Clouds continue to decrease across the area so most
areas should be mostly sunny through the day. Winds still on tap for
increasing by middle to late afternoon. Will look over 12z model
guidance to see if a High Wind Warning is needed across the Devils
Lake region or if the Wind Advisory needs to be expanded further


Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 352 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

150+m height falls forecast over southern man and Ontario for today
and tonight as a strong Montana upper level trough moves across southern
Canada. Surface low pressure over southeast Saskatchewan forecast to deepen
significantly through 18z then move into northern Ontario by 48
hours. Precipitable water around an inch and a half over the area
and over 2 inches over eastern South Dakota. East-west cross section indicates
drier air moves in from the west today with thunderstorms occurring
along the boundary. Moist air shifts east today as dry slot moves
into the area. Expect strongest storms to the south...over South Dakota or on
the southern end of the current line. May keep the same trend for
today. Line continued to weaken this morning.

Model soundings indicate an adiabatic layer this afternoon and
essentially through Wednesday evening excepting 12z Wednesday. Winds to 60 knots
in this layer this afternoon and evening...especially the northwest
zones. Will issue a Wind Advisory for about the northwest half of
the forecast area. May need a High Wind Warning northwest
zones...will let next shift determine if needed. Windy yet Wednesday
morning and decreasing through the day.

Some wrap around precipitation expected over the far northern zones Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Short wave over the eastern Pacific will move into southern Canada
Thursday after and evening and may produce precipitation over northern zones.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 352 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

For Friday through Monday...expect mainly dry weather with temperatures slightly
below normal. There will be several waves in northwest flow aloft...with
the best wave this weekend. Timing and overall coverage of any
convection will hinge on if waves come through at maximum
confidence not high on what day could produce showers/storms.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 700 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

MVFR ceilings were over the eastern and northern parts of the area. Ceilings
were generally between 10 hundred and 20 hundred feet. Some IFR ceilings
of 4 to 6 hundred feet was in the southwest zones. Otherwise VFR
conditions were over the area. Expect MVFR ceilings to shift east this
morning. MVFR to VFR ceilings between 1 thousand and 4 thousand feet will
move into the northwest zones this evening and into the northern Red
River valley later tonight.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CDT this evening
for ndz006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

Minnesota...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CDT this evening
for mnz001-004-005-007-008-013-014.



short term...hoppes

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