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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1152 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

issued at 1151 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Tweaked some temperatures up for tonight with clouds and increasing winds
in the western zones. Low level jet was over central ND and will
move near the Red River by morning and farther east Sat. No other
changes made.

Update issued at 1001 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Fog loop indicated some middle level clouds were moving southeast
around 25 knots and was currently over northeast ND and adjacent
parts of northwest Minnesota. Added more cloud cover. Band of clouds will
shift south and east overnight. Will generally increase temperatures
overnight with band of clouds moving through.

Update issued at 702 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Upper level ridge axis was located over the western Dakotas and will
shift into the eastern Dakotas by morning. Tweaked winds a bit.
Winds will remain up overnight. Will looks at temperatures on next update.


Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 250 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Forecast challenges concern temperatures and wind/fire weather
potential Saturday. Models in generally good agreement and will
use blend for forecast.

Surface high will continue to drift southeast overnight. There should be
enough mixing and warm advection to hold temperatures warmer than
last nights cold readings.

Wind and potential fire weather concerns for Saturday. Surface
pressure gradient to increase through the day. Middle afternoon mixed
layer to around 850mb with 35kts to mix. This should result in
windy conditions and could approach advisory values. In addition
will need to monitor relative humidity values closely for potential near critical
fire weather conditions. Warm advection continues so temperatures
should recover but still remain below seasonal averages.

Winds will hold up Saturday night for minimums closer to freezing.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 250 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

Sunday should be the warmest day as thermal ridge axis shifts over
the forecast area in the afternoon. With warmer start maximum temperatures
should be able to recover to above average values most areas. Another
breezy to windy day however mixed layer not as deep and winds
aloft not as strong.

Cold front will cross forecast area later Sunday night into Monday. With
surface low north of forecast area and timing of frontal passage will hold with low end
probability of precipitation. Cold advection during the day so maximum temperatures will
cool down back below average except possibly the far S-se.

Monday night through Friday...models show decent agreement at the
start of the period but consensus falls apart by middle week. A system
will be exiting Monday night into Tuesday...with some wrap around
precipitation possible in our northeastern counties. The deterministic
models differ on the strength of the reinforcing shortwave on
Wednesday...ranging from very vigorous from the Gem to barely
noticeable European model (ecmwf). The European model (ecmwf) continues to be more progressive than
the GFS through Thursday....but all the models have a boundary
coming through Wednesday then drier Thursday as high pressure builds
in. The models all handle the cut off low over the Southern Plains
at the end of the period differently...which would have implications
for beyond day 7. With fairly high uncertainty...will keep the
blended solution. Temperatures will be just slightly above seasonal
averages most days.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1151 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

VFR conditions are expected for tonight and Sat. Fog loop showed middle
clouds covered much of eastern ND and adjacent parts of Minnesota. Clouds
were moving southeast about 30 knots. Gusty south winds expected


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...voelker
long term...Jr/voelker

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