Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
940 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

issued at 940 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

Strong cold air advection this morning and then surface ridging
building into the region this afternoon. Temperatures will be
steady or slowly fall today. Adjusted the sky grids based on
latest rap/hrrr guidance...mainly following 925mb-850mb relative humidity which
looks to have a handle on the current trends. Cold air advection
flurries have spread into the southern forecast area...and added flurry
mention to most areas. Anticipate flurries will slowly come to an
end from north to south this afternoon as the stronger cold air
advection shifts southward and surface ridging builds.


Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 300 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

Forecast challenges concern temperatures and snow chances. Except
for the Saturday system models in good agreement with no real
model preference.

Will end freezing rain headlines at forecast issuance. Ceilings will continue to
lift as drier air moves into the region and system departs to the
east. No precipitation currently being reported by observation and radar clear. Cold
advection levels off this afternoon however models seem a little
too quick in decreasing clouds so temperature recovery will be minimal.

High pressure settles in this evening. Weak warm advection and
return flow after midnight should slow temperature drop from Valley West.

Will continue light snow chances across the north Friday
afternoon/night with weak wave. Will likely be the last mild day
for a while as column warms prior to cold front passage Friday night.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 300 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

Return to more seasonal temperatures from Friday night into the
weekend following sharp cold frontal passage.

Models differ on snow potential Saturday. GFS/European model (ecmwf) clip the
southern forecast area with -sn while NAM/Gem farther north. With
uncertainty left current probability of precipitation as is.

Sunday through Wednesday...little change expected in the overall
weather pattern. Mean jet position will remain just south of the
area keeping temperatures on the cool side through the end of the
period. Otherwise...a weak wave expected to cross the area on Monday
may bring a chance for -sn...with the rest of the period remaining


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 646 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

Conditions to continue to improve as drier air works into the
region. VFR conditions over the northern valley will expand to
most areas through the day. Will still see blustery conditions
through good part of the day.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...

short term...voelker
long term...Hopkins/voelker

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations