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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
325 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 320 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

Water vapor show the area of middle and high level mositure lifting
north-northeast through the area. Still got a few sprinkles out
there. Otherwise main short wave noticed is one lifting through eastern
South Dakota...toward Watertown. Area of showers with it moving north-
northeast and looks to graze southeastern forecast area...with highest
coverage Watertown to Alexandria. But due to still dry low levels
(dew points in the upper 30s in airmass it is moving into) not a lot
of rainfall. Heaviest pockets more on the southeastern side of
wave and that will stay well away from our area. Also got the main
upper level short wave in southern Saskatchewan and far northern Montana.
This will move generally east through Monday morning. So will
maintain some lower probability of precipitation in eastern ND/northwest Minnesota tonight in advance of
short wave to our west and south. A bit higher in far southeast
ND/west-central Minnesota late aftn/eve. With clouds tonight likely not too
much of a temperature drop.

Monday will bring a risk of a few showers (mostly morning) for far
NE ND into far northwest Minnesota as short wave trough out west moves through
Manitoba and far northern forecast area. Otherwise surface winds turn west and
some drier air will work into dvl basin in the afternoon and overspread
all but far southern forecast area Monday night as high pressure moves
in. Expect pretty similar temperatures on Monday as today. Cooler Monday
night in clearing areas with some patchy frost possible.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 320 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

High pressure Tuesday morning will move east. But overall pretty
sunny day expected. Then increasing clouds later Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Will spread some chance of showers into the forecast area
Wednesday...especially in the afternoon. Models still differ a bit in how
much precipitation will move in Wednesday afternoon...GFS and European model (ecmwf) a bit wetter
than NAM. Overall system is moving in from the west and is moving
pretty quickly. Main action Wednesday evening.

For Wednesday night through Sunday...first short wave moves through
the area Wednesday night into early Thursday bringing the best chance for precipitation.
Behind this system high pressure builds in bringing dry weather for
later Thursday into Friday. There are differences between the models in the
strength of a second short wave Friday night into Sat. European model (ecmwf) is weaker
with this system and keeps it dry and will follow that Route for
now. European model (ecmwf) also shows some very light showers Sat night in the warm
advection but this is also so weak it is not Worth mentioning at
this point either. Temperatures should start out near normal Thursday/Friday and
then warm to above normal readings by Sat/sun.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1256 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

Mainly dealing with scattered to broken middle clouds across the area right now
with a few sprinkles or showers around. Not confident enough that
any of these showers will hit any of the taf sites so will not
mention them at this point. Winds will start to turn around to the
south-southwest on Monday morning...but more so for kdvl/kgfk/kfar.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Riddle
long term...godon/Riddle

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