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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY 
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA 
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL 
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE 
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES 
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON 
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS 
WILL BE TOO WARM. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS 
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT 
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS 
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED 
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY 
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY 
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT 
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY 
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.  
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.  


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR 
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR 
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR 
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022-023.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




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