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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE (RAP AND
HOPWRF)...CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR.
STILL EXPECT MORE SUN OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW SKY TRENDS EVOLVE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM THE N RRV BACK
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHERE DEVILS LAKE AND CANDO HAVE
OCCASIONALLY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE.

EARLY AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT...WHICH
WILL SWING ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH...THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN ND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. IN
THE FACE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH E ND
THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT A QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER WAVE STILL BACK WEST OVER E MT
BY 12Z. THUS...SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF POPS A BIT MORE DURING
THE DAY...AND STILL MAY BE TOO FAST WITH THE PROGRESSION. THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND IS STILL BACK
OUT OVER MT...WHILE IT APPEARS THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE BEING
FORCED BY MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL...THE DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO CONTINUED
THE TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING POPS TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EVEN TO THE
WEST...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
WARMEST FROM SE ND UP THROUGH NW MN...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE A DAY WHERE CLOUD TRENDS MAY IMPACT TEMPS.
SOME 70S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER AREAS.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY WILL END AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A VERY DRY DRY ATMOSPHERE (PW LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES)...SO EXPECT
ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW CIRRUS. WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S.  

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS.
SOME COLDER LOCATIONS MAY BE DOWN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INTO THE RRV LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
MOST SPOTS AT LEAST GETTING CLOSE TO 70. 

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL 
PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY AN 
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT 
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY 
(ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS). THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT 
EVENT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
PERIOD...WITH ANY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS 
(TIMING UNCERTAIN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 
VALUES. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES
AT KDVL. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIP TIMING.
RIGHT NOW LIMITED -SHRA MENTION TO KDVL AND KGFK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND RATHER VARIABLE OVER THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER N/NW WINDS AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI

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