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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA AT MID AFTN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BRUSHING OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. THIS AREA BRIEFLY IN ADV CRITERIA BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WIND ADV EVENT FOR A SMALL AREA AND
WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING THROUGH
THE AREA...ENTERING ERN ND IN THE MORNING AND NW MN IN THE AFTN.
EXPECT TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH MAIN CHANCE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND STILL BREEZY...THOUGH STRONGEST OF WINDS
SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) WITH LOWS IN THE
20S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRI AFTN AND INTO NRN MN FRI EVE. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO WELL BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIP INTO DVL BASIN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUT MOST MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY. TEMP GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 50S FAR SW TO 30S
NE.  

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TERMS 
OF QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM THAT MAY TRACK 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH QPF 
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY AFTN. THIS IS GIVING 30 TO 40 POPS FOR MID WEEK 
AND SOME POPS IN NEARLY EACH 12 HR PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM. 
CONSEQUENTLY I HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR ANY LOW POP (14 TO 20 PERCENT) 
PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND 
MODELS DO ACTUALLY AGREE ON THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520 TO 540 
RANGE...INDICATIVE OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. AFTN HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH 
EXPECTED TO TAP INTO 40S SO SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR 
SOUTH.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HRS BUT WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT 
THIS AFTN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY VCNTY DVL SHIFTS EAST. WILL 
SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AS THE TURN SW AND EVENTUALLY 
W...INCREASING AFTER TURNING W. SHOULD SEE GUSTINESS SUBSIDE 
OVERNIGHT AND RESUME TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO OVER 30MPH IN THE SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH THOSE WINDS CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RHS ARE NOT AS LOW
AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN ANTICIPATED HOWEVER
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING UNTIL WINDS WEAKEN AROUND 7PM.

TOMORROW MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH MIN RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
ACROSS PARTS OF WILKIN...GRANT...OTTER TAIL...WADENA AND HUBBARD
COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW MAY HAVE MIN RHS IN
THE LOW 30S OR UPR 20S AND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED 20  
TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30MPH. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY PRODUCE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME.


&&




.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

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