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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE FA TONIGHT. WITH
CLEARING...DIMINISHING WIND AND LITTLE THERMAL RECOVERY TODAY WE
WILL SEE ONE OF OUR COLDER NIGHTS SO FAR WITH MOST AREAS AROUND
20. 

SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SOLAR TOMORROW AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO
MN. SOME RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER WITH COLD START AND LOW SUN ANGLE TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY
TO GET OUT OF THE 30S. 

TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WARMER DAY SATURDAY WITH SOLAR AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION BUT
GUSTY SE WINDS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON ANY WARMING. 

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MILDER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF AK AND A LONG WAVE 
RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES 
THIS PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, A FLAT LONG WAVE RIDGE/TROUGH 
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA/EASTERN CANADA RESPECTIVELY. 

THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND 
THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN 
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE 
ECMWF. 

TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON MON AND TWO TO FOUR 
DEGREES ON THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO ON 
TUE AND WED FROM THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK




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