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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE WINDS.
UPSTREAM OBS STILL SUPPORT WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND HAVE USED HIRES NMM MODEL DATA FOR HOURLY WINDS
THROUGH 03Z. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER
COUNTIES RISE INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A SHORT WINDOW THIS AFTN.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS THE 12Z SOUNDINGS DO MIX DOWN A BIT HIGHER
WINDS BUT SO FAR OBS ARE ABOUT WHAT MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO SHORT TERM AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM IS TEMPERATURES AND SKY
TRENDS. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY APPARENT ON WV LOOP OVER SRN
MANITOBA...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY IMPACT TEMPS...HOWEVER
MAINLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HWY TWO CORRIDOR STARTING THE DAY
CLEAR AND MAY BE THE WARMEST PART OF THE CWA TODAY. WILL ADJUST
TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
EARLY MORNING SKY COVER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
AS THEY HAVE BEEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDS
LATER IN THE DAY. SO FAR WINDS ACROSS SRN SASK NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE
BUT WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM CONDS AND ADDRESS POTENTIAL ADVISORY IF
NEEDED. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR WIND GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ALTA/SASK 
BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING OVER AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE. ALSO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE 
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND JET WAS NOSING INTO WESTERN ND. JET WILL SHIFT 
NORTH AND EAST FRI AND FRI NIGHT WHILE SHORT WAVE WILL INTENSIFY 
OVER EASTERN CANADA. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
WILL INTENSIFY AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES 
TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST 
AREA SAT NIGHT. 

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE 
ACROSS THE AREA BY 84 HOURS. UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE 
PROGRESSIVE.   

A WINDY DAY EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TODAY. 
POTENTIAL FOR 35 TO 40 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN AS ADIABATIC LAYER IS 
FORECAST FROM SURFACE TO AROUND 850 HPA. SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON 
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION FORECAST FOR 
SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL SHIFT PRECIP MORE TO THE NORTHERN RED 
RIVER VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT.   

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A 
MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LATE 
OCTOBER VALUES.  AN 500 MB TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN 
BORDER MONDAY.  SFC LOW AND MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST NORTH OF THE 
CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY THEN AS IT MOVES EAST SYSTEM DOES WRAP UP 
SOME AND SENDS COLDER AIR BRIEFLY SOUTHWARD MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY 
WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.  COLDER AIR GETS SHUNTED EAST QUICKLY 
AHEAD OF NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ALONG THE BORDER WED 
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  ECMWF MODELS REMAINS A TAD STRONGER AND WETTER 
WITH THESE THAN THE GFS.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH EACH OF THESE 
SYSTEMS ARE PRETTY LIGHT AND WITH COOLER AIR HAD TO THROW IN SOME 
MIX OF RA/SN AT TIMES IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AT 
TIMES. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL BE 
THE MAIN ISSUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND 
WEST...AND SHOULD PICK UP WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS 
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO BELOW 15 KTS AT SUNSET 
AND SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




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