Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NE ND GIVING THE CLEAR SKIES TO MOST OF THE AREA WITH MID
CLOUDS DIMINISHING ACROSS NW MN. TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING WELL
TO THE FULL SUN...EVEN AT ITS LOW ELEVATION...WITH THE LACK OF
SNOW PACK...AND WILL TWEAK THEM UP A TOUCH FOR THE AFTN MAXES. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PLAINS TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BEHIND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
CWA. CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH IF THEY PUSH FURTHER WEST. THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THINK THAT THEY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE RAP HAS RH VALUES DECREASING A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY. KEPT EAST OF THE RED RIVER IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
RANGE. TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE WEST HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO GET
BACK INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. 

TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THE SFC HIGH
WILL START TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AT THIS POINT THINK THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL AGAIN SEE
CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME MIXING FROM WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND BE NEAR 10 DEGREES. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE RETURN PICKS UP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE 20S. 

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH AND LIFT IS PRETTY WEAK. MODELS ALL PUT OUT VERY MINIMAL QPF
BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
GOING FRIDAY...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BEHIND THE SFC RIDGE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST 
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN THE RRV/ERN ND AFTER 
00Z WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY GOES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.  
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.   THERE IS ONE PATCH OF MID CLOUD 
TVF-FSE AREA MOVING WEST AND IT MAY MAKE IT TO GFK AT MID AFTN FOR A 
FEW HOURS BUT ALSO MAY JUST DISSIPATE.  THE MVFR CIGS IN WRN ND WILL 
STAY OUT IN THAT AREA  BUT COULD MOVE EAST SOME AS SOUTHERLY WINDS 
GET MORE PRONOUNCED THURSDAY.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER CIGS WEST OF 
DVL THRU 18Z THU.  

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations