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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. 

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. 

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR. 

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN AT FAR AND BJI THROUGH AROUND 22Z TO 02Z
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z
BEFORE THE VFR CIGS BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST. NO STEADY PRECIP EXPECTED
AT TVF/GFK ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE...WHILE DVL AREA SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

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