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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TWEAKED POPS FOR THIS MORNING...SHIFTING POPS A LITTLE FARTHER 
SOUTH. RADAR INDICATED SOME THUNDER NORTHWEST OF FARGO AND NEAR 
WARROAD MN. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HCO TO 
NEW ROCKFORD. SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST ABOUT 35 KNOTS. NO OTHER 
CHANGE MADE A THIS UPDATE. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

DIFFERENT REGIMES FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF FOR 
TODAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN 
MT. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL JET 
WAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE. RAIN AND THETA-E 
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM TODAY IS A DRY LAYER 
IS FORECAST BETWEEN 850 AND 700 HPA THAT PRECIP ALOFT WILL HAVE TO 
OVERCOME. LOW CIGS OVER NEB FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA 
THIS MORNING AND FOG LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTH.  

EAST WEST CROSS SECTION SUGGEST A FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND A FRONT 
ALOFT FOLLOWS FRI NIGHT AND LATER FRI NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. PROBLEM 
WITH DRY LAYER REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS. 

MODELS FORECAST A 120+ KNOT UPPER JET TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA FRI 
NIGHT/SAT AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER BC WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE AND 500 HPA TEMPS FALL BELOW -20C 
ON SAT. WILL GO FOR THUNDER FRI NIGHT/SAT. 

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE 
AREA.  MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVE A 500 MB 
LOW OVER IDAHO MOVE EAST AND THE NORTHEAST WED-THU INTO THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS.  MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT CONFIDENCE 
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WED 
EXITING THURSDAY.  MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FROM 
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WRN MINNESOTA.  AREA OFFICES TONED DOWN POPS 
GIVEN FROM ALL BLEND TOOL ON FRIDAY AS IT WASNT SUPPORTED BY 
MODELS.  OVERALL NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER 
EASTERN SD. CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTH AT APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOTS. 
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND 
MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN THROUGH 10 AM. THE MVFR/IFR DECK SHOULD SHIFT 
EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH 
THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON THE ND SIDE THIS 
AFTERNOON AND THE MN SIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES

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