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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota
318 am CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 317 am CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015

Several unsolved questions for today and tonight. First the shower
threat for later today and tonight seems to have lessened with the
lower degree of digging of the passing short wave. It now looks like
coverage will be more spotty that we have previously been
thinking...with the highest probability of precipitation in the east tonight only in the low
chance category. This seems reasonable as instability and moisture
look modest. Will bring up this modest chance this afternoon from
the west with the slightly higher probability of precipitation north. The shower threat
should be winding down pretty well and be left only in the far east
by the end of tonight.

Ahead of this system is redevelopment of the cloud deck at 6-7k feet
above ground level...or around h775...which this morning is being handled poorly
by the short term models. This is the same moisture level we were
dealing with yesterday at this time. There is the question also that
if the cloud deck becomes solid for a while...whether or not it will
break up with some mixing associated with the approaching wave.
Temperatures will be mild today with highs in the upper 60s to middle
70s...and tonights lows in the middle to upper 50s.

Southerly/southeasterly winds will pick up a little today but should
hold short of the breezy category. A shift to the northwest will
start late tonight.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 317 am CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015

Only concern for precipitation in the medium and extended portions
of the forecast falls on Thursday as models continue to hint at
elevated front sliding through the area in the afternoon. Moisture
fairly limited...but could see a few sprinkles or very light rain
showers in the MO River Valley.

Otherwise...the main story through the weekend and into the first of
half of next week will be temperatures. After a slightly cooler day
on Friday...temperatures will ramp up for the weekend as winds aloft
turn southwesterly. Highs by Sunday may break the 80 degree mark.

Will have to keep an eye on temperatures and winds for Monday behind
a rather strong shortwave racing through the region. Increasing spg
and channel of stronger low-level winds should allow for a rather
gusty day. With little in the way of substancial cooling
aloft...still expecting to see readings in the lower 70s.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1044 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.


Fsd watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...
long term...dux

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