Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
326 PM MST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Short term...(tonight through Friday night)
issued at 220 PM MST Thursday Mar 5 2015

The northwest flow aloft will weaken early Friday as the high
pressure ridge centered over the West Coast expands eastward across
the Great Basin. A couple of weak disturbances will drop into the
northern plains around a low pressure trough positioned over the
eastern portion of the Continental U.S.. at times these waves will result in
some mostly high clouds over the northern half of the forecast
area. Otherwise the warming trend will pick up steam on Friday
under mostly sunny skies and as warmer conditions spread in from
the west. Tonight will again be quite cool with temperatures
staying below normal. Friday night's lows will moderate somewhat
dropping to near to a little below normal.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 220 PM MST Thursday Mar 5 2015

A split flow regime will be in place to start out the weekend and
looks to persist into early next week. As a result the forecast will
be on the dry side across the intermountain west and central
rockies. A small piece of the strengthening northern branch of the
jet does look to break off and drop through the Great Basin late
Saturday evening. The nose of the jet and a weak wave passes over
western Colorado Sunday afternoon during peak heating. This creates
a rather unstable atmosphere and isolated to scattered showers look
to form across our southeast mountains. The better low level forcing
however will be along and east of The Divide as a front settles into
the Front Range. Not impressed with forcing or moisture so probability of precipitation stay
low. The pattern across the southern 2/3 of noam will be Delaware-
amplifying as the stronger northern stream jet takes a more direct
Route across southern Canada. This leaves the storm track well to
the north and an extended dry and warm period will continue into
late next week. The models do want to sweep in some Pacific moisture
ahead of stronger system moving onshore in the Pacific northwest.
Models still struggling with the this system and in the high
latitude flow pattern in general. Below confidence in details near
day 7. What is more certain for the long term period is a warm up
back to near normal temperatures this weekend followed by above
normal readings going into the new week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 325 PM MST Thursday Mar 5 2015

VFR is expected area-wide through Friday evening. Other than some
high clouds at times mainly over the north...mostly clear skies
will prevail.

&&

Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...
Colorado...none.
Utah...none.
&&

$$

Short term...eh
long term...15
aviation...eh

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations