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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
1011 am MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 406 am MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

We can expect little change in conditions through the next few
days as an amplified high pressure ridge remains over western
North America...and low pressure dominates the east.

For our forecast area...mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures
aloft will allow daytime highs to again climb above normal at
most locations...and possibly a couple degrees warmer than on
Tuesday. The exceptions will continue to be those cold and
inverted valleys and basins...mainly over the north...but also
including the upper Gunnison basin. Those same inverted valleys
will be susceptible to patchy late night/morning fog or haze. Low
temperatures tonight will again modify a little...but will still
remain on the cold side.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 406 am MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

Models indicated that quiet and relatively mild conditions will
continue through the end of the week as the high pressure ridge
remains over the west. Valleys which have been trapped beneath
persistent inversions can expect only modest gains in temperature
through Friday with recurrent fog/haze during the night and into
the morning.

The ridge over the west is shown to flatten as a low pressure
trough off the coast of the Pacific northwest moves onshore
Friday. The trough will sweep across the northwest Friday night
into Saturday with light snow showers becoming possible over the
eastern Uinta and Elkhead Mountains late in the day through Sunday
morning according to the GFS. In the European model (ecmwf) solution
this trough is much shallower and faster having little impact on
the area. Since models struggle to reach consensus will leave low
end probability of precipitation over the north through midday Sunday until better
agreement is reached.

The ec and GFS were somehow more consistent in the later periods
with both models showing moisture moving through a shallow ridge
over the Pacific northwest and over the northern Colorado
mountains Sunday night through Monday. Not entirely ready to buy
off on this solution so kept probability of precipitation relatively low. Moisture Peters
out by Tuesday.

Temperatures slide by a few degrees this weekend with the passage
of the trough described previously but rebound Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1002 am MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail today...though some haze will keep
visibility below 6 miles at kvel until about 20z. The fog and haze
should return to kvel...kege...kcny and kcag vcntys from about 04z
to 16z...with brief MVFR/IFR visibilities possible.


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...


long layers

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