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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
1035 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 322 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Screaming message today is the continued unseasonably warm maximum
temperatures. Upper ridge slowly building over the region today as
evident from satellite imagery. Models indicate 700 mb temperatures by
middle afternoon today about 2 degrees c warmer than yesterday
afternoon...and expect maximum temperatures today to be 3 to 5 degrees
warmer than yesterday at most locations.

Although expect little change with maximum temperatures on Saturday
versus today...expect near record high temperatures on Saturday as
maximum temperature records in many areas are lower than today.

Southwest winds will begin to increase on Saturday as the gradient
tightens between the high pressure system overhead and the next
incoming trough from the west.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 322 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Clouds will increase Saturday night ahead of the approaching trough
but we are not expecting any precipitation to reach the forecast
area until Sunday. Even so...confidence is low on areal extent of
precipitation due to the forecast models changing nearly every model
run. All three models suggest some isolated showers on Sunday mainly
over NE Utah and northwest Colorado due to a weak vorticity maximum passing through combined
with a strong jet aloft moving in...though the biggest threat from
these showers will be gusty winds.

Showers expected to continue and increase Sunday night into
Monday mainly north of I-70. Again...expect relatively low total
precipitation amounts...generally less than a third of an inch.
Presently...looks like perhaps 1 to 3 inches of high density snow
totals at high elevations...mainly above 10k foot level by Monday

Then a dry westerly flow is expected Monday night through Thursday
..with a migratory upper ridge over our area Wednesday night and

Should be noticeably cooler on Monday under northwest flow aloft...though
the maximum temperatures on Monday will just be close to normal or
even a tad above normal. Then Tuesday will begin a gradual
warming trend that should continue through Thursday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1035 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

VFR conditions continue under clear skies through the next 24


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...




Short term...jrp/jam
long term...jam/jrp layers

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