Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
1142 PM MST Friday Dec 20 2013
issued at 420 PM MST Friday Dec 20 2013
Have a bit of concern on tonights low temperature forecast.
Despite light winds expected across the area there looks to be
quite a bit of high cloudiness that will cover mostly the
east/southeast parts of the area through much if not all of the
overnight hours which would potentially limit overnight lows
dropping to current forecast values. Further west much less
cloudiness but southwest winds 5-10 miles per hour which could keep mins up
compared to current forecast as well.
Will watch trends and see what the 00z guidance has to offer a
little later this evening before committing to any changes.
Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 112 PM MST Friday Dec 20 2013
An upper low deepening across the southwest US will eject into the
central/Southern Plains this weekend bringing snow/ice/rain to much
of the central US. Locally this system will bring a chance for
snowfall along the southeast portions of the County Warning Area. Otherwise cold air
remains in place as clouds associated with this complex limit high
Today...mostly cloudy and nearly calm. Middle/low level moisture in
eastern Colorado has caused stratus to hold longer than initially
expected...but some erosion is finally becoming apparent on visible
satellite. While these low clouds erode high clouds will stream in
from the southwest. Again a tricky high temperature forecast...especially
as surface heating has been delayed for much of the region due to
the cloud cover. Winds are very light as pressure gradient relaxes
this afternoon and into the evening.
Tonight...skies partially clearing and light/variable winds. Temperatures
approaching the single digits...similar to last night.
Saturday...increasing clouds throughout the day as 500 mb shortwave
trough quickly moves across the Central Plains. Some frontogenetical
forcing in northwest/north central Kansas...but model soundings
indicate not enough moisture below about 700mb. At this point it
appears the best chance for any precipitation will be in the southeastern
fringes of the County Warning Area. Specifically...Graham and Gove counties look to
have the best shot at precipitation. Temperatures aloft will be plenty
cold...though depending on how warm temperatures reach during the day
precipitation could start as rain/drizzle before changing over to a light
snow. No significant accumulation is expected...and this system will
be swift to exit the region on Saturday night.
Long term...(tuesday through next saturday)
issued at 1136 PM MST Friday Dec 20 2013
The Central Plains will be under northwest flow aloft between a
ridge over the Great Basin and mean trough near the Great Lakes. A
couple of disturbances moving through the flow will bring brief
cool Downs...but precipitation chances appear slim to none with
moisture lacking. European model (ecmwf) does show some light quantitative precipitation forecast Tuesday and
Tuesday night whereas the GFS does not...but could be some
flurries associated with a shortwave trough on Christmas. Models
really differ on handling of second system Wednesday and Wednesday
night...but neither showing precipitation. The ridge will build
westward for the end of the week with temperatures warming to
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1000 PM MST Friday Dec 20 2013
For kgld and kmck...VFR conditions expected through the period.
High cloudiness currently over the terminals will move east and
out of the area by sunrise. By middle to late afternoon Saturday
cloudiness increases again from the south and northwest. Toward
the very end of the taf period low level cloudiness is forecast to
move over the terminals from the northwest. At present time it
appears ceilings should be above MVFR thresholds by a few thousand
feet...this will need to be watched however.
Winds generally from the southwest at 10kts or less from taf
issuance through sunrise with a shift to the northeast around
10kts middle morning Saturday. By early tomorrow evening winds
expected from the north around 10kts.