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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
356 PM EDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Latest update...
mesoscale discussion

Mesoscale discussion...
issued at 355 PM EDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Isolated severe threat continues through the afternoon. A couple
storms in Gratiot and Montcalm counties are showing persistent
rotation as they move into a region of high storm relative
helicity with backed surface winds courtesy of earlier convection.

Another band of storms in Barry and Eaton counties could pulse up
to severe levels as it moves east southeast over the next couple


issued at 330 PM EDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across lower
Michigan through Saturday. The clouds and showers will hold highs
around 80 Friday before the temperature climbs back to the middle 80s
for the remainder of the Holiday weekend. Cooler weather is expected
by the middle of next week.


Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 330 PM EDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Forecast concerns deal with the convective potential through

Radar imagery shows a couple of broken lines of convection. The
first extends from Mount Pleasant west to Newaygo County. The second
is farther south from near St Johns to Middleville. The southern
line appears to be near a weak cold front that is washing out.
Farther north a well defined circulation associated with an upper
low that will linger over lower Michigan through Saturday. SBCAPE
around 2500 j/kg coupled with shear around 30 kts is enabling a few
storms to become organized. As the sun sets we/ll lose some
instability and the convection should wane a bit. However the upper
low/trough will linger over the County Warning Area through Saturday. Shear values
around 15kts are forecasted Friday across the County Warning Area so we Don/T anticipate
severe storms but can't rule out a strong one or two due to decent

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 330 PM EDT Thursday Sep 3 2015 impact weather in the extended
period centers around the slow moving front that may bring copious
rains from Monday to early Wednesday.

Only a few tweaks were made to the blended forecast...mainly to slow
the front down a bit early in the week per the slower 12z European model (ecmwf) then
end the chance for probability of precipitation late Wednesday which the 12z guidance agrees
on. Given the long duration and high precipitable waters ...would not be surprised
to see widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall from Monday to early

Temperatures on Monday will be tricky as high could be anywhere from
around 80 to near 90 depending on how extensive the clouds are. Went
middle of the Road for now.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 204 PM EDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Conditions this afternoon will be variable as thunderstorms with
heavy downpours move through bringing periods of MVFR and IFR.
Most of the time it will be VFR. Then widespread fog is expected
overnight with IFR conditions expected after 06z.


issued at 330 PM EDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Winds and waves will remain on the light side tonight and Friday due
to the weak pressure gradient. Light north winds tonight will become
onshore Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible through


issued at 1110 am EDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

No immediate concerns to be aware of today regarding river

Heavy rainfall associated with thunderstorm activity will quickly
pass through the area this morning and through early afternoon.
Ponding may occur on roadways and low lying areas in and around
the heavier rainfall. Much of the heavier activity will vacate
the region by middle afternoon.

The next 7 days remains active and includes multiple chances for
rain. 7 day area average rainfall of one to two inches is possible
with locally higher amounts in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
Recent dry weather and low river levels...coupled with the
piecewise fashion of the rainfall...should allow for the ground to
soak up much of the onset of moisture. Runoff thereafter is
likely to be handled well by they have plenty of room
to take on additional water.


GRR watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...04
long term...ostuno

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