Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
325 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 324 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Forecast highlights focus around thunderstorm chances through
Thursday...with above average Summer heat late week and beyond.
Morning soundings from Dodge City and Topeka indicated not much
warming would be needed to breach cap...which has certainly proved
to be the case this afternoon. As such...scattered thunderstorms
have formed along a weak convergence zone from northern Kansas
east/southeast into northeast Kansas and central MO. A weak middle-level
trough approaching from the northwest is also likely aiding this
activity. With middle-level flow out of the northwest...some of this
activity could venture into portion of central and east-central to
southeast Kansas this afternoon/evening. Despite decent
instability...deep layer shear is weak so main threats will be
marginal hail and localized downburst winds...along with locally
heavy rain...likely dissipating after sunset. Otherwise...another
round of showers/thunderstorm could venture into areas west of I-135
toward dawn...originating from lingering High Plains
activity...aided by a progressive shortwave approaching from the
west. This activity will likely remain below severe levels.
For Wednesday...anticipate the potential for festering scattered
showers/thunderstorms generally along/west of I-135 much of the
day...in response to strengthening 700mb warm/moist advection on
eastern fringe of approaching elevated mixed layer. Activity will
also be aided by aforementioned approaching shortwave. Strong to
marginally severe storms appear possible. Thinking the potential for
elevated thunderstorms may increase Wednesday night-early Thursday...as tight
middle-level thermal gradient continues to advance east. Increasing
elevated instability and decent directional shear will continue the
strong to marginally severe storm potential. This activity could
linger over eastern Kansas through Thursday morning.
Adk
&&
Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 324 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
For Friday and beyond...a Stout middle-level subtropical ridge is
expected to remain parked across the southern Continental U.S....with medium
range models building the ridge over the western Continental U.S. By early/middle
next week. This will likely result in mostly dry conditions and
above normal temperatures across the region. Cannot completely rule
out a few afternoon/evening isolated hit-and-miss thunderstorms from
Fri-sun...as some weaknesses in the middle-level ridge are evident in
the GFS/ECMWF...but warm 700mb temperatures and weak forcing should
preclude widespread activity. Forecast daytime temperatures in the
90s and overnight lows in the 70s are 5-10 degrees above seasonal
normals.
Adk
&&
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1239 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
The main aviation concern is the chances for precipitation today
and tonight.
Diurnal convection is possible today...but confidence on any storm
impacting any one terminal over another is low...and have left
thunderstorms in the vicinity or prevailing ts group out of the forecast this afternoon .
Best chances will be over krsl/ksln if anything does develop.
Otherwise...organized convection is expected to develop over the
High Plains this afternoon and evening. Evolution and direction
this convection is going to take is in question...but it may
impact the area toward morning. Again...due to lack of confidence
have left a mention out of the tafs at this time...thinking that
later guidance may increase confidence for the forecast. Light and
variable winds will become southerly Wednesday morning.
Billings
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 66 85 69 91 / 20 30 30 30
Hutchinson 67 85 69 93 / 20 30 40 20
Newton 66 85 69 91 / 20 30 30 30
Eldorado 65 84 69 89 / 10 20 30 40
Winfield-kwld 67 85 70 91 / 10 30 30 30
Russell 67 86 68 96 / 40 40 50 10
Great Bend 67 84 68 95 / 40 40 50 10
Salina 66 86 69 93 / 30 30 50 30
McPherson 66 85 69 93 / 20 30 40 30
Coffeyville 66 86 69 87 / 10 20 20 30
Chanute 65 85 68 87 / 10 20 20 30
Iola 65 85 68 87 / 20 20 20 30
Parsons-kppf 66 85 69 87 / 10 20 20 30
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
