Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
258 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 255 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Will maintain some low probabilities of showers/thunderstorms over
far southeastern Kansas today near stalled 850 front...although
instability/shear will be much less than recent days. The upper
trough across the plains will slowly begin shifting eastward tonight
through Wednesday night. This will push the 850 front out of
southeast Kansas...leading to drier conditions...with the trailing end
of the front extending westward into the southern High Plains.
Shortwave ridging will build over the Central Plains Thursday ahead
of an upstream upper trough pushing into the western states. The 850
flow will become southerly with moisture advection/isentropic lift
spreading into mainly our southwestern counties. Low probabilities
for showers/T-storms looks reasonable. Temperatures will be seasonal
during the period.
Jmc
Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 255 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Upper troughing is prognosticated over the northwestern Continental U.S. And
northeastern Continental U.S. During the extended period with shortwave ridging
across the central/Southern Plains. The European model (ecmwf) was flatter with the
plains ridge and allows a front to sag southward into Kansas over
the weekend. Will maintain forecast continuity closer to the GFS
during the period. Lee troughing and southerly flow will allow rich
Gulf moisture/instability to move back northward across the Central
Plains during the period. There are some hints of weak impulses
topping the plains ridge...and with the Lee trough/dryline to our
west...will maintain the idea of periodic chances of
showers/thunderstorms. Confidence remains high that above normal
temperatures will be in place by the weekend.
Jmc
&&
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1132 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013
A few showers and thunderstorms remain near the southeast corner of
Kansas and Oklahoma border which has prompted thunderstorms in the vicinity to remain in the
taf for kcnu until 12z. High pressure is meandering in tonight.
Overall a very quiet taf period. Winds are expected to become
northwest and have adjusted a few sites to indicate this transition.
Otherwise VFR conditions for all taf sites.
Vp
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 75 53 77 55 / 10 10 10 10
Hutchinson 75 51 77 53 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 74 51 76 52 / 10 10 10 10
Eldorado 75 52 77 53 / 10 10 10 10
Winfield-kwld 76 53 79 56 / 20 10 10 10
Russell 73 48 75 50 / 10 10 10 10
Great Bend 73 49 76 51 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 74 51 76 51 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 74 51 76 52 / 10 10 10 10
Coffeyville 76 54 79 56 / 30 10 10 10
Chanute 75 53 77 55 / 30 10 10 10
Iola 76 53 76 54 / 20 10 10 10
Parsons-kppf 76 53 78 56 / 30 10 10 10
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
