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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

issued 1040 am CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

High pressure to our north will bring US one more pleasant day before
a series of shortwaves track east southeast into the region starting
tomorrow. Until then, a dry northeasterly flow will prevail this
afternoon bringing delightfully cool weather to the forecast area.
Forecast soundings suggest some scattered cumulus this afternoon
with the better coverage across the east. Based off the temperature
trends this morning will bump the afternoon highs up a couple of
degrees most areas. Other than that, not too many other adjustments
needed to going forecast. Will have the update out shortly.



issued 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

VFR conditions are expected during this forecast period. High
pressure to our north this afternoon will drift off to our east
this evening allowing winds to turn more into the southeast
overnight. A weather disturbance out across the northern plains
will drop southeast into the region increasing our cloud cover
after midnight and bringing rain chances to parts of the area.
As of now, will include vcsh in pia as a complex of storms will
track southeast into parts of eastern Iowa before running into
our very dry air mass and weakening. Initially, we will see some
mid level cloud cover move in after 10z across the north with
some sct-bkn mid and high level cloud cover durnig the day further
south. Surface winds will become light southeast to south late
tonight and out of the south on Friday with speeds of 5 to 10 kts.


Previous discussion...
issued 248 am CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

Drier air has spread over the entire forecast area, with dew
points at 2 am as low as 49 degrees at Effingham. Large high
pressure across northern Minnesota is building southward,
resulting in mostly clear skies across the area early this
morning. Upstairs, high pressure ridging continues from New Mexico
to North Dakota, with a strong 500 mb low over Washington state.
This low will be more of a player for our weather later in the
weekend. In the meantime, trying to time the extent of nocturnal
convection will be the main forecast concern for this package.

Short through Saturday night:

Quiet weather expected through this evening, as the high pressure
settles into the Midwest. Mid to upper 70s likely for highs today,
as dew points remain quite comfortable (50s) for late July.

Upper ridge expected to break down this evening as the low tracks
across the southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta. This
will allow a surface low over Montana to dive southeast into
eastern South Dakota overnight. Strong low-level jet of 45-55
knots along the 850 mb warm front expected to result in an mesoscale convective system
forming toward midnight across Iowa, before tracking southeast.
Rather pronounced dry wedge around 800-850 mb is shown on NAM and
GFS forecast soundings tonight, and the general model suite
continues to slow the arrival in our area as a result. Thus, have
kept just slight chance pop's northwest of the Illinois River late
tonight, and concentrated the main chances of rain across the
north half of the County Warning Area during the day on Friday. Convection should
be fairly elevated, limiting the severe threat. Development of
another mesoscale convective system is expected Friday night across Wisconsin and northern
Illinois, with elevated convection moving through the forecast
area late night and early Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will
likely remain capped, before yet another mesoscale convective system forms late afternoon
or early evening. This last mesoscale convective system is the one most likely to produce
severe weather, with very unstable cape's over 3000 j/kg and 0-6
km shear becoming more decent around 35-40 knots. Latest Storm Prediction Center day3
outlook does include the entire forecast area in 15% probabilities
(slight risk) of severe weather for Saturday afternoon/night.

Long term...Sunday through wednesday:

By early Sunday, the earlier mentioned upper low will be opening
up some as it drops southeast into northeast Minnesota. Some
lingering convection is possible on Sunday, before the passage of
a cold front ahead of this wave. Have kept the remainder of the
forecast dry, as high pressure builds into the mid Mississippi

A broad upper trough will dominate the Midwest most of next week,
as an upper low spins over southern Hudson Bay. This will result
in another shot of cooler weather early next week, with some
slow modification in temperatures. However, below normal
temperatures will prevail beginning on Monday. Long range
indications are that this below normal trend will continue into
the first few days of August.



Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...


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