Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
329 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Short term...(tonight)
issued at 329 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Convection already going along an old outflow boundary in
northeast and will continue into eastern parts of central
Illinois...this evening. Additional storms will be possible
through this evening. Storms this evening should remain more
isolated or scattered than wide-spread. Then a cold front will
begin to effect the area with more showers and storms overnight.
So probability of precipitation will be increasing during the overnight hours with highest
probability of precipitation northwest of the Illinois River. Temperatures overnight should be in the
middle 70s with precipitation and lots of clouds. Heat advisory will also
continue until 8 PM this evening.

&&

Long term...(wednesday through tuesday)
issued at 329 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Front will continue to move through the area Wednesday with
showers and thunderstorms remaining possible through the day over
most of the area. Highest probability of precipitation will be in the east and southeast
through the day. Once the front moves through...dry and less humid
weather will continue through the rest of the week. Then over the
weekend another weather front will drop into the area as a trough
tries to flatten the ridge over the area...through the weekend.
Boundary does become more parallel to the flow so will only have
slight chances for Sat night through Monday...mainly in northern
and central sections of the County Warning Area. Then the front looks to become a
little more active for the beginning of the week...so will have
chance probability of precipitation in the north for Monday night and in the north and
central for Tuesday.

Temperatures will be lower over the weekend and beginning of next week...with
highs in the 80s through the period and lows in the 60s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 545 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Some MVFR visibilities of 2-4sm occurring early this morning in
the humid air mass...but so far lower visibilities have held off
likely due to some high cloud remnants from overnight convection.
Conditions should improve over the next couple hours.

Have some concerns about isolated storms along a weak boundary
that extends from near kmli-kspi-kmvn. Earlier high-resolution
model guidance had been suggesting some storms as early as middle
morning west of the boundary...but have eased off recently. More
concerning is a large thunderstorm complex moving through Iowa...
with an associated Wing of storms from kcid northwest. Overall
weakening of the storms has been seen on infrared satellite
recently...and the leading Wing should track north of the central
Illinois taf sites. So...am planning to keep the taf sites dry
during the day. Thunder chances will be increasing from west to
east tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. The front
should be passing through the taf sites after 12z with a wind
shift to the northwest.



&&

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ilz027>031-036>038-
040>044-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

Short term...auten
long term...auten
aviation...geelhart

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations