Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois
949 am CDT Sat may 18 2013
Discussion...
issued 949 am CDT Sat may 18 2013
Little change to the forecasts needed this morning...aside from
removal of earlier fog mention.
Clouds pivoting around a surface low in western Kentucky this
morning. So far the showers have remained across Indiana...but
should begin to see a few showers/storms pop up across the eastern
County Warning Area over the next couple hours as the diurnal heating picks up.
Temperatures looking on track to reach the lower 80s in most
areas...but have kept a few upper 70s in the far eastern County Warning Area due
to the clouds and showers.
Geelhart
&&
Aviation...
issued 619 am CDT Sat may 18 2013
All sites will start with IFR fog and possibly MVFR ceilings...for
first couple of hours...thanks to the rain that occurred last
night and the high dew point air mass that is over the area.
Conditions will improve to VFR between 14 and 15z. Sky conditions
should become clear during the early evening hours. Moisture still
could be around tomorrow morning so have added a tempo group for
some light fog overnight. Winds will be light and variable this
morning but then become southeasterly at all sites this morning
through afternoon...then light and variable again overnight.
Auten
&&
Previous discussion...
issued 330 am CDT Sat may 18 2013
Short term...today through Tuesday night
Will continue patchy fog across central and southeast Illinois into middle
morning. Lingering upper level trough over the Ohio Valley and
daytime heating with lingering moisture will continue to bring a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to eastern Illinois by late
morning and afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and
coolest around Paris...Mattoon/Charleston and Effingham areas.
Isolated showers possible until Sunday over the Wabash River
valley otherwise dry tonight with lower in the lower 60s and coolest
by Danville and Paris. Upper level ridge nosing into Illinois Sunday
along with warm front lifting northward through Illinois to bring warmer
and more humid conditions with highs in the middle to upper 80s and
dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s. Have 20-40% chance of showers
and thunderstorms over the Illinois River valley...with best chances
Sunday afternoon northwest of the Illinois River. Strong low pressure over the
Central Plains where best chances of severe storms (15% risk severe)
will be west of Illinois Sunday/Sunday night...though Storm Prediction Center extends a
slight risk area into the Illinois River valley Sunday night as some
short waves pivot into that region by Sunday evening.
Storm Prediction Center has entire area in a slight risk Monday afternoon/evening with
15% risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Cutoff and surface
low over northern plains Monday and again Tuesday with warm/moist
air mass over central/southeast Illinois and some strong or even severe storms
possible again Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night. Nudged Monday highs a bit
warmer in the middle to upper 80s. Highs Tuesday 80-85f east of the Illinois
River and upper 70s west of the Illinois River.
Long term...Wednesday through Saturday
Models have surface and upper level low progressing eastward toward
northern Illinois/southern WI Wednesday and likely bringing showers and
thunderstorms to region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Strongest
storms Wednesday appears to be over eastern/southeast Illinois or into Indiana depending
on speed of storm system. Lingering chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday with upper level trough
moving into Illinois...then trending drier later next week. Cooler temperatures
expected during the second half of next week with highs in the low
to middle 70s from Thursday through Sat.
07
&&
Ilx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
