Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
1145 PM EST Thursday Mar 5 2015
the aviation section has been updated below.
issued at 401 PM EST Thursday Mar 5 2015
Strong high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley with a brief
shot of bitterly cold Arctic air into Friday. Southerly winds will
bring progressively warmer temperatures into central Indiana over
the weekend and into next week with dry weather persisting. Highs by
the middle of next week may be the warmest experienced since late
Near term /overnight/...
Issued at 954 PM EST Thursday Mar 5 2015
Surface analysis this evening shows high pressure in place across
Illinois and Indiana. Satellite shows clear skies across the
region. Winds are expected to be light or calm overnight with a
weak gradient due to the surface high in place...providing ideal
radiational cooling set up. Only minor changes made to the ongoing
forecast based upon observational trends.
Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
Issued at 401 PM EST Thursday Mar 5 2015
Finally. A change from the "wash...rinse..and repeat" pattern for
nearly these past 2 months of cold...then snow...then bitter cold
with wind chill advisories....then repeat.
However as mentioned in a previous forecast discussion a much
... Change for the rest of the short term (and
beyond!) Is expected as conditions look quiet and *dry* with high
pressure settling over the lower Mississippi Valley. This Bermuda
high-ish type pattern appears to carry through the next 7 days
bringing dry and slightly warmer temperatures each day this
Warm advection gets going through much of the rest of the short
term...with temperatures steadily warming back up into the upper 30s to
near 40 by Saturday. A MOS blend looked generally reasonable from
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 210 PM EST Thursday Mar 5 2015
Temperatures will start out slightly below normal for the
beginning of the extended period and then soar into the upper
50s/low 60s for the second half of the period...becoming almost
Spring like. The pattern starts out with some weak troughing over
the Great Lakes region on Sunday. It appears any precipitation with this
weak wave should stay north of the forecast area...and the latest
regional initialization has come in with dry conditions. As flow
becomes more zonal aloft from Monday through Wednesday night...the
dry conditions will continue and southwesterly flow at the surface
will push the temperatures into that upper 50s/low 60s range.
Aviation /discussion for 060600z taf issuance/...
Issued at 1142 PM EST Thursday Mar 5 2015
VFR through the period. Light and variable winds through the
overnight with clear skies and high pressure overhead.
Southwesterly winds around 8-12 kts Friday by late morning and
lasting through the day. Could be a few wind gusts to 20 kts or so
in the afternoon but think they/ll be sporadic at best so will
leave out with this issuance. Should see some middle level clouds as
well as some cirrus during the day.
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