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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
1050 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

the aviation section has been updated below.


issued at 345 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

The closed upper low over the southeast U.S. Will move off
the southeast coast and high pressure ridge over eastern
Canada and the upper Midwest will build into our region.
This will result in dry and mild weather later today to

In the long term a weak cold front will bring a chance of showers
Thursday night and Friday. Otherwise...quiet weather will be the
rule much of this week.


Near term /rest of today and tonight/...
issued at 951 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

For the update...removed patchy drizzle as it has moved north of the
area. Short term models are showing high temperatures getting warmer
than forecast...but have doubts given the northeasterly flow and
cloud cover over the north. Thus will leave highs temperatures alone
in the upper 60s north to lower 70s south. No other substantive
changes made.

Tonight will become mostly clear over southern sections and partly
cloudy north. Lows will will be in the lower to middle 50s which is
close to a MOS blend.


Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
issued at 345 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

High pressure will build south across our region next few days
and dry and mild weather will be the rule. Models indicate mostly
clear conditions early on and again towards the end of the short
term period. There could be a bit more clouds late Monday night
and Tuesday as a weak upper disturbance moves across the southern
Great Lakes.

A weak upper ridge of high pressure will build across our region next
several days which will allow for above normal day time temperatures.
Went close to a MOS blend with highs from the lower and middle 70s north
to around 80 far southwest both Monday and Tuesday. Lows both Monday and
Tuesday night will be in the 50s.


Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
issued at 305 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

Guidance continues to depict a frontal system pushing through the
area late in the week...but now appears to be moving the system
through a bit faster. Thus will only carry probability of precipitation Thursday night and
Friday across central Indiana. Later in the period...Euro takes a
weak upper level impulse across the Great Lakes while the GFS dives
it into the Ohio Valley. Given euros Superior track record... will
keep things dry for next weekend.

Blended initialization handled things well and only minor tweaks
were required.


Aviation /discussion for the 041200z tafs/...

Issued at 1047 am EDT sun Oct 4 2015

1435z update...made a few modifications to account for cloud
cover lingering over central Indiana. Aside from klaf which is
still IFR but should lift in the next hour or so...the other sites
will be VFR for the entire period. Previous discussion follows.

MVFR or IFR restrictions at some sites will give way to VFR
conditions later this morning...with VFR continuing through the
remainder of the period.

Low cloud this morning should scatter out later as drier air works
its way into the area. Lamp guidance brings all sites to VFR no
later than 15-16z. Will generally reflect this in tafs.

Winds will remain east/northeasterly today...generally 10kt or less.
Expect few if any gusts today.


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...jh/cp
short term...jh
long term...nield

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