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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
1135 PM EDT Monday Oct 20 2014

issued at 1135 PM EDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Shower activity has picked up over the past few hours on radar...with
even some lightning strikes from time to time. A decent cluster is
heading into the western portion of the County Warning Area...and have beefed up probability of precipitation
to account for this cluster...which should gradually weaken as it
heads southeast into our area...where it is a bit more stable.
Clearing has also been more prolific this evening...allowing for
patchy dense fog and a quick drop in temperatures...some of which
have dipped below the forecast lows. Have dropped the lows to account
for the cooler readings. These should rebound as thicker clouds move
in ahead of the approaching have blended the hourly
temperatures back into some of the model data which captures this
best. Updates have been sent.

Update issued at 819 PM EDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Based on current radar trends have lowered probability of precipitation through 03z. Also
have allowed for a longer lull in precipitation between the pre-frontal
showers which have now moved out of the region...and Post frontal
precipitation now moving into western Kentucky based on satellite/radar trends.


Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 341 PM EDT Monday Oct 20 2014

A short wave is moving across the area this afternoon. Later
tonight... a cold front will move across the area. Then an upper low
will stay near the area keeping things unsettled through the end of
the period. The front looking like the strongest
portion will miss the area. Just kept some isolated showers in the
forecast from now. With the cloud cover...temperatures will be a bit
warmer tonight...however by near dawn on Wednesday...there will be some
patchy frost again in the valleys. Stayed very close to the blended
models for the temperature forecasts.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 341 PM EDT Monday Oct 20 2014

Persistent troughing over the eastern Continental U.S. Will keep cooler than
normal conditions around from Wednesday through Thursday. As the
troughing slowly departs to the East...Heights will begin to rebound
towards weeks end...with temperatures starting to moderate. Even
warmer temperatures will surge into the area for the upcoming
weekend as strong ridging builds across the Ohio River valley.

As for the details...clouds will likely hold on well into Wednesday
as northerly winds lock in the low stratus. Cannot rule out some
drizzle or sprinkles on Wednesday...especially in the morning...but
opting to leave it mainly dry at this time. As the troughing pushes
east...skies should clear from west to east through the afternoon
and into Wednesday night. Still some question on how fast this
clearing will reach the far east as sometimes it can be very
stubborn to depart. Given the chilly conditions in place...if enough
clearing can occur...we should see a fairly good opportunity for a
bit more frost than we have seen thus far this season.
However...sub-freezing temperatures do not look likely at this
time. Whatever cloud cover can persist into Thursday morning should
quickly be on the way dry air takes over...allowing for
sunny skies. With the ridging very slow to move in late in the
week...models are now showing the potential for a fast moving vorticity
maximum to push south across the Ohio Valley late Friday and Friday
night. This feature should be weakening with time...but given how
things have gone lately...would be surprised to see a few rain
showers or sprinkles push across the area with this wave. For
now...opting to stick with some sprinkles with this wave as moisture
seems rather limited. By Saturday...ridging will surge
east...allowing for a warm and dry weekend with highs jumping back
above normal.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 819 PM EDT Monday Oct 20 2014

A passing cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers as
well as lowering ceilings to eastern Kentucky through the overnight.
Expect mainly VFR conditions to hold on through around 06z...before
ceilings lower into the MVFR/IFR category from 06 to 12z. Winds will
shift to the northwest behind the frontal passage...with low ceilings
likely hanging around through Tuesday morning...before a gradual
improvement is expected during the afternoon hours.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...jj
long term...kas

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