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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
657 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015

issued at 657 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015

A few rain showers are moving across some of our far eastern and
northeastern counties this morning. Some of the rain showers that
are moving through Martin and Pike counties have produced close to
an inch of rain over the past hour to 90 minutes. These showers
should be out of the area in the next hour or so. Another area of
rain showers will be moving out of central Tennessee and into the
southwestern portion of our forecast area in by 12z this morning.
This activity will gradually overspread the area through out the
morning. By this afternoon scattered showers and storms are
expected to pop up around the area as well. Graphical nowcasts
have been issued to deal with any rain showers that we have
experienced so far this morning. The latest observation data has been
ingested into the forecast grids to establish new trends...but
nothing that would warrant issuing a new set of zones.


Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 300 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015

Not much agreement amongst the models regarding timing of shower
and storm initiation early today...overall areal coverage...and
duration of precipitation after dark this evening and overnight.
The latest MOS guidances has probability of precipitation ranging from nothing to 20 to 30
percent depending on which forecast site you are talking about.
The only firm trigger for convective activity today looks to be a
weakening and already ill defined cold front. With a warm and
humid air mass in place...however...and some lift still available
along the front...isolated to scattered showers and storms are
possible again today through tomorrow...with the bulk of activity
occurring during the afternoon and early evening hours while peak
heating is still occurring. Temperatures are still on track to run
well above normal today and tomorrow due to relatively unmodified
warm and humid air mass that is setting on top of US. Highs today
tomorrow should have no trouble maxing out in the low to middle
80s...with overnight lows in the low to middle 60s across the area.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 331 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015

The western Atlantic ridge will get flattened out through early
next deeper troughing slides across the U.S./Canadian
border. Residual troughing will swing from The Rockies to across
the Mississippi Valley...keeping the unsettled weather continuing
across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. The better chance probability of precipitation will
occur from Saturday through a cold front gradually
drops southeast across the region and dampens with time. By the
middle of next week...a cutoff low will emerge and drift along the
lower Mississippi Valley...with ridging re-establishing itself
across the southeastern Continental U.S. And middle Appalachians. For eastern
Kentucky...this will mean less convective coverage...but still
not totally rain-free. The blended guidance offered a reasonable
start to the probability of precipitation. Did not stray far from the given values during
the periods of better forcing...however did continue to undercut a
bit during the over-active modeled nighttime periods with less
forcing available. Temperatures will start out above normal
through the first part of the weekend...before the passing cold
front cools things down a few degrees temporarily into early next
week. Readings will then return to above normal by the middle of
next week...with the influence of the southeastern Continental U.S. Ridging.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 657 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015

Scattered low clouds and broken middle level clouds will affect
the taf sites this morning. Sym will be socked in by LIFR fog
through 12 or 13z this morning before breaking out of The Muck.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will move across eastern
Kentucky today and tonight...but these should stay widely
scattered enough to not be Worth mentioning in the tafs. VFR
conditions should prevail at the taf sites through around 6z
tonight. Between 6 and 12z on Friday fog may affect the one or
more of the airports...but this is not a high confidence fog has been left out of the 6-12z portion of the
tafs for now.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Arkansas
long term...geogerian

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