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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
310 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 304 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Fair and cool weather will persist through the high
pressure builds in from the northwest and centers itself over our
region by late Wednesday night. Stratocu will persist into
tonight...especially in our NE counties...but should largely
dissipate by Wednesday morning. This will leave very few clouds
for the remainder of the period. With drier air continuing to
arrive and good nocturnal cooling conditions...chillier
temperatures will occur each night...especially in valleys. By
Thursday is still possible that the coldest valley
locations could have a touch of frost.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 310 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Upper level wise the eastern Continental U.S. Broad trough remains in
place...while a ridge extends from Texas in the Pacific northwest. A
feature will swing southeast out of the upper Midwest through the broad
trough Thursday night into Friday bringing some height falls
across the region. This broad trough progresses east as we move
into the weekend and early next the aforementioned ridge
creeps into portions of the eastern US before flattening. In terms
of models there is above average agreement overall in the upper
level pattern...perhaps more discontinuity in the upper level wave
on Thursday night into Friday.

The surface feature most prominent through the period will be high several highs progress across the region through the
long term period. The first of these areas of high pressure will
be nearly stationed across portions of eastern Kentucky to start the
period...then this will shift east through the day on Thursday.
After this the attention will be focused on a fairly weak cold
front that if prognosticated to move southeast out of the Midwest late Thursday
into early Friday. This is where models continue to have a lack of
Unity overall with potential for quantitative precipitation forecast. The NAM/GFS have remained
dry in most of the runs this week...while the European model (ecmwf)/Canadian has
been the wetter models. The latest 12z run of the NAM remains
dry...while the 12z GFS has introduces some light quantitative precipitation forecast in the far
north. Previous superblend did introduce some slight probability of
will lean toward the 12z superblend which does bring some chances
probability of precipitation across far north. This system moves southeast while a strong
high builds in from the northwest. This high will creep into the middle
Atlantic by Tuesday.

First impact of the period will be the frontal boundary by
overnight Thursday into early Friday. This will bring slight
chance to chance of showers across the north...however given dry
air represented at the surface based of forecast soundings and
time heights it seems this activity would remain quite light with
less that a tenth of an inch of rain. Next bigger impact will be
the potential for frost and freezing temperatures by the
prior mentioned strong high pressure moves into the region.
Overall this weekend will be quite cold and below normal with
highs on Saturday and Sunday only warming into the 50s. The
widespread frost will be most likely Sunday morning...while Monday
may not be as much given high moves east by this point. Temperatures warm
up Monday into Tuesday under return flow...with highs getting back
closer to normal.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 154 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

VFR prevailed at taf issuance. There was stratocu affecting much
of the area...with low VFR ceilings near and north of I-64.
Continued VFR conditions area expected until late tonight...but
low VFR ceilings will occur at times through about 06z over the
northern and eastern portions of the forecast area...generally NE
of a line from Mount Sterling to Harlan. Overnight...fog will
bring vlifr to the deepest valleys...but will likely not impact
taf sites. The fog will dissipate by late morning on
Wednesday...leaving VFR. West winds will gust to around 20 kts
this afternoon...but will diminish around sunset.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...hal

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