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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
338 PM EST Monday Nov 30 2015

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 338 PM EST Monday Nov 30 2015

A large storm system developing over the north central Continental U.S. Will
bring increasing warm air advection and overrunning as it tries to
pull a warm front north through the area tonight...resulting in
showers. A cold front spiraling around the system will move
through from west to east on Tuesday...with more showers. The
front will slow down as it exits our area...and this would allow
showers to linger through Tuesday night in the southeast part of
the forecast area.

Models show weak elevated instability late tonight and
Tuesday...and sparse lightning strikes can not be ruled out.
However...the threat looks low enough to leave it out of the
forecast at this point. If deep convection could
bring brief heavy rainfall...and with already wet ground...rapid
runoff would result. The southern portion of the forecast area is
in the day 1 excessive rainfall outlook. However...the most likely
scenario is for a prolonged less intense rainfall event with
totals eventually stacking up to the point that larger streams end
up running high.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 3 PM EST Monday Nov 30 2015

The models were in good agreement in the extended. The consensus is
for a large and well developed area of low pressure aloft to move
quickly across the Great Lakes and into New England Wednesday and
Thursday. Rain showers are expected to gradually taper off from west
to east across far eastern Kentucky during the day on Wednesday as a
surface cold front exits the area. Low and middle level cloud cover
will also blanket the area on Wednesday morning...but will also
slowly break up and move off to the east through out the day. We can
expected partly cloudy skies by around 7 PM on Wednesday...with
mostly clear skies and dry weather on tap for the area from Thursday
Onward. The first few days of the extended period will see at or
slightly below normal temperatures as a ridge of Canadian high
pressure settles over the eastern third of the Continental U.S.. the coolest
day looks to be Thursday...when day time highs are expected to maximum
out in the middle to upper 40s. The upcoming weekend should see a
slight warm up as the air mass modifies a bit under mostly sunny
skies. Highs Saturday and Sunday should be able to climb into the
middle 50s for most locations across eastern Kentucky. Overnight lows
during the extended will likely be quite cold with slightly below
normal values expected through Sunday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1257 PM EST Monday Nov 30 2015

Very few places should see anything better than IFR at least until
well into the night. Areas of drizzle will give way to rain this
evening. After about 07z tonight an improvement to MVFR is
forecast...but the confidence is low. Showers will persist
overnight and into Tuesday.


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...hal
long term...Arkansas

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