Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
315 am EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 307 am EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

A very quiet and mild weather pattern on tap in the short term. A
large ridge of surface high pressure will remain in place across the
region today and tomorrow. Winds will remain out of the north
today...but we should experience a nice warm up anyway as the cool
air mass modified beneath clear skies. A weak warm frontal boundary
will bring and increase in cloud cover tonight and tomorrow...but
little more than that as the boundary will be starved for moisture as
it passes through the area. Patchy valley frost will be possible
again late tonight into early Thursday morning as our deeper valleys
again drop in the middle 30s. Todays highs will be quite pleasant...with
readings topping in the low to middle 60s. With winds having not dropped
off quite as much as expected overnight...temperatures around the
area also stayed a bit warmer than originally forecast...particularly
on the ridges. Therefore...todays forecast highs were increased by a
degree across the board to account for the difference and per the
warmer mavmos guidance. With winds going near calm and skies mostly
clear...a modest Ridge Valley split will again be on tap for
tonight...with our ridges falling into the lower 40s and the
surrounding valleys likely bottoming out in the middle 30s.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 315 am EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

The models are coming into better agreement aloft with the pattern
as it slows significantly with time. Initially progressive...weak
southeast ridging over Kentucky will give way to a full latitude
trough moving in from the plains by Friday morning. The models are
of two minds with the timing and magnitude of this system. The GFS
and NAM are faster and flatter than the CMC and European model (ecmwf). The trend has
been to slow the arrival of this trough so will favor the latter
blend. This trough does go through the Ohio Valley by Friday evening
followed by flat riding moving into the region to start the weekend.
This ridge will become pumped by Sunday morning up by a deep trough
moving through The Four Corners region. It is this trough that will
drive the weather for much of the eastern part of the country well
into next week. At the start...the European model (ecmwf) is quicker and slightly
deeper with this low than the GFS and CMC. However...for the European model (ecmwf)
that speed is translated more north into a closed low over the
Nebraska and South Dakota border while the other models are cutting
off their low over far west Kansas at 00z Monday. Meanwhile...east
Kentucky will enjoy near normal...or just above...temperatures to
start the new work week thanks to downstream ridging. That starts to
change later Monday and on Tuesday...though...as the large closed
low ambles into the middle Mississippi Valley spreading height falls
into Kentucky along with ejecting bits of energy. The model
differences remain at 00z Wednesday with the GFS having a seemingly
more reasonable deep low centered over pah while the European model (ecmwf) is closer
to the quadrant cities. At that point...the center of the low is almost
immaterial with low heights and spirally bits of energy dominating
the middle levels over the eastern two thirds of the nation...as the
pattern crawls to a halt. For this development...a general model
blend is reasonable...but will also lean a tad toward the more
consistent GFS solution.

Sensible weather will feature a cold front crossing east Kentucky
Thursday night with a potential for thunderstorms and a quick shot
of needed rainfall. Somewhat cooler weather follows into Saturday...
but dry and mostly sunny conditions should keep readings on the warm
side of normal. The large surface low developing to the west will
attempt to lift a warm front north through east Kentucky on Sunday
with a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm...mainly west. A
better chance of showers and storms arrives on Monday and continues
into Tuesday when the core of the system rolls into the Central
Plains and sweeps another front into our area. This will help to
focus the building Gulf moisture over the region and make for a damp
and eventually cool middle week period...especially on Tuesday and
Wednesday when the low takes up residence...nearly overhead. The
only Silver lining for the upcoming week of cloudy...wet...and cool
weather will be the affect it has on easing any lingering/rogue fire
concerns.

The CR grid Load came in reasonable for the bulk of the extended...
though did make some minor adjustments toward the GFS solution late
in the period. Also fine tuned the low temperature grids Friday and
Saturday night to add in more ridge and valley details.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 130 am EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

VFR conditions and clear skies will be on tap throughout the taf
period. Some high level cloud cover will move across the area toward
the end of the taf period. Aside from that...it should be smooth
sailing.

&&

Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...Arkansas
long term...greif
aviation...Arkansas