Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
227 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
Short term...(tonight through Sunday night)
issued at 127 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
A cold front was just about to drop south into Kentucky at middle afternoon.
It will progress through the jkl forecast area this evening. Shallow
isentropic lift/overrunning will lead to clouds and a possibility of
light rain during the night. Models have been trending drier with
successive runs recently...looking less and less impressive for
precipitation. Have backed off on probability of precipitation from the early morning forecast
package...now using 20-30 percent for tonight...except for 10
percent and a dry forecast near the Tennessee border.
Surface ridging will build in from the northwest and bring clearing skies on
Sunday. The air mass behind the front is only modestly cooler...and
afternoon sunshine should push temperatures to the 50s. The surface
ridge will drop to our south Sunday night...and warm air advection
will return. With good radiating conditions...this should set US up
for Ridge/Valley temperature differences by Monday morning.
Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 127 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
Spring-like weather is on tap heading into the early portion of next
week as a split flow long wave pattern develops across the Continental U.S..
mild air will surge across the Ohio Valley Monday through
Tuesday...with highs well into the 60s...and lows only in the 40s.
The only weather system expected to impact the region next week will
cross the area from late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A
southern stream wave crossing the Southern Plains Tuesday night will
attempt to phase with a northern stream wave dropping southeast out
of the western Great Lakes. Models are beginning to come together
with respect to the timing and perhaps even the degree of phasing
with these two waves. As it stands now...the surface low track will
be from southern Missouri...eastward across eastern Kentucky...and
into the Middle Atlantic States. This track will support all rain
across eastern Kentucky from Tuesday night into Wednesday. As the
system exits to the east late Wednesday...colder air will wrap in
behind the departing system...with temperatures plummeting into the
30s Wednesday evening...and eventually 20s Wednesday night. Moisture
remains sufficient as the deformation axis of precipitation swings
southeast across the area. With upslope contributions with northwest
flow...we should see some snow shower activity Wednesday evening
into the overnight hours. The saving factor this time around is the
timing of best moisture and snow...does not persist very long and
any snow should be short lived. Regardless...a light coating of snow
would certainly be possible. The colder air will bring temperatures
back well below normal by Thursday with highs struggling to rise
through the 30s again. As a middle level ridge pushes across the area
late in the week...we should see temperatures begin to rebound as we
head towards and through next weekend.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 145 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2014
VFR will last into the evening for most locations. After a cold front
passes through...MVFR and localized IFR ceilings are expected to
develop from northwest to southeast between about 03z and 08z...with light rain
possible. Any light rain should come to an end by dawn...and ceilings
will break up from northwest to southeast between about 12z and 18z. Sustained winds
will mostly be less than 10 kts during the period.