Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service San Juan PR
915 PM AST sun Mar 9 2014
Synopsis...upper level ridge will dominate the Caribbean basin
through the end of the week while strong westerlies dominate north
Discussion...drying already occurring this evening with precipitable water down
to 1.32 inches with further drying expected through middle week as
strong zonal flow prevents any sig moisture advection into the
area. Latest cfsv2 continues to indicate the beginning of a long
stretch of abnormally dry weather beginning Tuesday and persisting
through March 23rd.
Aviation...VFR conditions expected across the local terminals
tonigt. Light and variable surface winds are expected overnight. The
03/09 00z sounding indicated winds mainly from the east to NE at around
5 kts from surface up to near 7 kft...becoming variable from 5 to 20 kts
up to 20 kft above 7 kft.
Marine...moderate northwest swells expected to reach the Atlantic coastal
waters late tonight. A second group of north-northwest swell will begin to
reach the local waters Monday night with seas building up to 6 feet.
Fire weather...all RAWS in PR and USVI picked up some good rains
past 24 hours. Some light showers still possible Monday but areal
coverage and intensity will be less. Beginning Wednesday...area appears
to be in store for a long stretch of dry weather with fire danger
expected to gradually increase toward the end of the week and
early next week as winds strengthen and fuels dry out.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
sju 73 82 73 82 / 0 0 0 0
stt 76 83 75 83 / 0 10 0 0