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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
231 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014


Main concerns this forecast cycle are first period dense fog
potential. On Thursday a chance of rain enters the forecast with a
frontal and upper system...then again Tuesday. Then a temperature
forecast for the period.

Morning fog...dense in spots...was again seen this morning and
dissipated by noon. Will again have some in the forecast tonight
and Thursday am for parts of central and northern Arkansas. It held the
longest in the kmez and kmwt area...and in river valleys in the
north. This afternoon skies were mostly sunny with temperatures reaching
the 70s west to central...while 60s east. The frontal boundary was
seen over the Western Plains...while the upper trough was a bit
behind the surface front. Precipitation water value at klzk was low at
0.43 inches. Surface winds are NE to east over Arkansas filtering the dry
and cool air into the state. The morning weak cold front that was
over SW Arkansas was weakening.


Short term...tonight through Saturday night

Some increasing clouds will be seen tonight as the upper trough
and front approach Arkansas from the west. Did include some patchy fog
overnight and early Thursday am based on last two nights but
should be more limited. Slight chance of rain or showers will be
possible Thursday as the front and upper trough move through the
region. Although lift...moisture and instability are quite limited
and at this time only isolated rain is expected...and mainly over
northern Arkansas. Temperatures will remain a bit cooler to near normal values
on Thursday. Models do stall the front and wash it out over
western Arkansas...and the upper low lifts NE and away from the region
into the front weakens. Friday and into the
weekend...the upper trough moves east as the upper ridge builds
into the region. This will dry conditions out and warm temperatures above
normal values over the weekend.


Long term...Sunday through Wednesday

Not a lot of appreciable changes can or will be made this
afternoon as models continue to show little change versus this
time yesterday. The only thing Worth noting is the frontal
boundary expected to come through Monday night and early Tuesday
may be a touch stronger and probability of precipitation will be tweaked upwards a touch.
Solution will continue to use a GFS/European model (ecmwf) blend.

Period initiates with upper ridge sitting almost on top of US
flanked by upper troughs along both coasts. Ridge will begin to get
pushed to the east as West Coast trough advances east. System
expected to move across the state Monday night and Tuesday with
minimal rain chances. Models a little stronger with the boundary but
will continue to keep probability of precipitation in the slight chance range for now.

Temperatures will continue to run a good 10 degrees or more above
normal Sunday and Monday with continued southerly flow. Overall
temperatures will be cooler Tuesday with clouds and some precipitation
around but still above normal. Mav/mex numbers look reasonable and
are generally accepted.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 42 68 47 77 / 0 20 10 0
Camden Arkansas 46 71 46 79 / 0 10 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 45 70 51 76 / 10 20 10 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 46 69 47 78 / 0 10 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 46 69 49 78 / 0 10 10 0
Monticello Arkansas 46 70 47 76 / 0 10 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 45 71 45 77 / 0 20 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 43 69 49 78 / 0 20 10 0
Newport Arkansas 42 67 47 77 / 0 10 10 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 45 68 47 77 / 0 10 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 45 70 46 79 / 0 20 10 0
Searcy Arkansas 42 67 46 76 / 0 10 10 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 43 68 48 76 / 0 10 10 0

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.


Short term...59 / long term...56

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