Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
546 PM CST Thursday Dec 5 2013
widespread MVFR to occasional IFR conditions are expected through
the period as a significant winter storm moves across the area. A
mixture of freezing rain...sleet and snow is occurring or expected
at all terminals except kllq. North to northeast flow will
continue through the period. Precipitation will end from northwest
to southeast late in the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 450 PM CST Thursday Dec 5 2013/
.Winter storm continues to evolve and will impact the natural state through
.Please refer to winter watch/warning products /WSW/ for detailed
information regarding precipitation type...timing and accumulations...
Short term...tonight through Saturday night
Arctic cold front was situated to the southeast of the Arkansas at middle afternoon. Much
colder air continued to filter into the forecast area...with sub freezing temperatures noted
over much of west-central and north-central sections. Bulk of the precipitation this
afternoon has been concentrated over the northwestern half of the forecast area...with a
wintry mix noted. Have even see some isolated cloud-to-ground lightning strikes
associated with elevated instability.
Basically continued with current forecast trends with regard to precipitation and
temperatures tonight and Friday. The Arctic air will continue to slowly spread southward across
central and southern Arkansas heading into Friday. Meanwhile...another upper level
impulse will approach the region from the SW later tonight and Friday...resulting
in another round of precipitation.
As far as precipitation trends go...northern Arkansas will see a mixture of sleet...freezing
rain and snow through this evening...transitioning over to all snow late
this evening. Still looking at a total of 3 to 6 inches of snow/
sleet over north-central Arkansas before precipitation tapers off Friday afternoon.
Over the central sections of the state...surface temperatures will slowly drop to blw
freezing overnight...with rain turning to freezing rain. Some sleet could
mix in at times on Friday before the precipitation ends late in the day. Still
looking at ice accumulations between upwards of 1/2 inch over most
areas...with some higher amts from Little Rock up towards Searcy and
Across southern Arkansas...mostly rain will continue into Friday...then a transition over
to sleet and freezing rain later in the day. Precipitation will taper off early
in the evening.
Arctic airmass will become firmly entrenched across the middle south over the
weekend. Taking into account expected ice and snow accumulation...
low temperatures by Sat morning will plummet into the single digits and teens
across much of northern and central Arkansas. Combo of frigid temperatures and winds will
produce single digit wind chills across much of the area Sat morning...
with some sub zero readings possible over north-central Arkansas.
Clouds will be in the increases once again on late Sat ahead of another
storm system the will bring a new round of light wintry precipitation to parts
of the area heading into Sat night. The effects of this next storm will
continue into the start of the long term. Additional winter weather headlines
are likely with this next system.
Long term...Sunday through Thursday
On Sunday the upper SW flow will bring in a short wave system across
Arkansas...move it through Arkansas on Sunday to Sunday night. Temperatures will
be around freezing in central Arkansas...colder north...while warmer
south...additional winter precipitation will be seen over the state.
The winter weather will mainly be confined to central Arkansas where
freezing rain and sleet will be seen...sleet and snow over northern
Arkansas...while rain south will be possible. Sunday night...the upper
system begins to move east of Arkansas...pulling the precipitation
gradually east and ending it from west to east by Monday morning.
This Sunday system will still produce winter weather...but not as
severe as the Friday system. Then an Arctic air mass filters into
Arkansas...taking temperatures to lows in the single digits to teens...while
highs only in the 20s. A bit of warming by Wednesday...as the
surface high pressure system gradually moves east...with lows in the
20s...while highs in the upper 20s in northern areas...to the lower
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 26 27 6 23 / 100 100 10 10
Camden Arkansas 33 34 21 32 / 100 100 20 20
Harrison Arkansas 20 23 2 23 / 100 90 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 30 30 14 28 / 100 100 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 30 31 14 26 / 100 100 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 33 35 21 32 / 100 100 30 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 29 30 12 28 / 100 90 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 23 24 3 24 / 100 90 10 10
Newport Arkansas 27 28 9 23 / 100 100 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 32 33 18 30 / 100 100 20 20
Russellville Arkansas 28 30 10 27 / 100 90 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 28 29 11 24 / 100 100 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 30 32 15 27 / 100 100 20 10
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Friday for Arkansas-Clark-
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Friday for Baxter-Boone-
Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 am Friday to midnight CST Friday
night for Bradley-Calhoun-Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Lincoln.
Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 am to 6 PM CST Friday for Dallas-