Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion...update for aviation 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
640 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected this evening and
overnight. VFR ceilings will gradually increase and lower a bit
overnight. An area of showers with some thunder...will move into
northern Arkansas tonight...but overall coverage will be low. Used vcsh or
thunderstorms in the vicinity in taf forecasts. Isolated showers will also reach other taf
sites late tonight and on Monday. Winds will be southeast to S at 5 to 10
miles per hour this evening and overnight. On Monday...additional convection
will be seen at taf sites as an upper system moves through the area.
Patchy areas of MVFR ceilings will be seen on Monday. Winds will
start southeast to S...then become more S to SW. (59)

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014/

Short term...tonight through Wednesday night
the upper ridge is beginning to move east of the Mississippi River
this afternoon. An upper trough is moving into the plains. This
upper trough will swing through Arkansas tonight and Monday. An
upper ridge over The Rockies Tuesday will move to the Mississippi
River by the end of the period.

Satellite images show an increase in cloud cover over western
Arkansas. Expect chances for showers and thunderstorms to increase
this evening and overnight. A cold front will move from the northern
plains tonight to just northwest of Arkansas Monday afternoon. Best
chances of showers and thunderstorms will be Monday afternoon and
evening across the area...ahead of and along the front. The front
will exit the area Tuesday morning. Any rain lingering Tuesday
morning will be in the southeast and will be out of the area by middle
morning.

High pressure moves into the area Tuesday morning. This will
continue through Wednesday before moving east Wednesday night.
Another cold front will move into the plains Wednesday night and
rain chances will increase over Arkansas as moisture returns. Near
to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the
period.

&&

Long term...Thursday through Sunday
the extended period looks unsettled. A cold front will push into
Arkansas from the plains on Thursday. It appears the storm system
associated with the front will go well to the north...with the front
left to hang up. A larger system will arrive from the west next
weekend...and will interact with the stalled front.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast through
much of the long term...especially on Thursday and next weekend.
While we are several days out...would not be surprised to have an
mesoscale convective system or two and areas of heavy rain...as well as some severe weather.
Will keep a close eye on this.

Mild temperatures are expected...with above normal readings
anticipated.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 58 76 57 74 / 50 60 60 10
Camden Arkansas 59 79 60 78 / 30 60 60 10
Harrison Arkansas 58 72 55 72 / 50 60 60 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 60 78 59 77 / 50 60 60 10
Little Rock Arkansas 59 78 59 77 / 40 60 60 10
Monticello Arkansas 58 79 60 77 / 30 60 60 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 60 77 58 76 / 50 60 60 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 58 73 55 73 / 50 60 60 10
Newport Arkansas 57 77 58 75 / 50 60 60 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 59 79 60 77 / 30 60 60 10
Russellville Arkansas 59 75 57 76 / 50 60 60 10
Searcy Arkansas 58 78 57 75 / 50 60 60 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 58 79 59 77 / 40 60 60 20
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Short term...51 / long term...46