Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1223 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015
latest winter storm has shifted east of Arkansas at this time...leaving a good bit
of snow and sleet across much of the forecast area. Forecast was updated earlier
this morning to cancel the Winter Storm Warning across the remainder of
the forecast area. Skies have cleared with plenty of sunshine expected the
rest of the afternoon. Many locations have warmed into the upper 20s and
lower 30s over the area at midday...helping with the melting process.
The higher sun angle this time of year is also contributing as well.
Gridded products have already been updated to reflect current
trends. Will have to contend with widespread freezing of slush and
standing water tonight into Friday. No other changes to the forecast...all
updates are posted. /44/
Previous discussion... /issued 1130 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015/
VFR flight conditions will be seen over the next 24 hours. Some snow
cover at airports will gradually melt today...but any water on
surfaces will refreeze tonight as temperatures drop well below freezing.
Warmer on Friday. Winds will be north to NE at 5 to 15 miles per hour today...
becoming less than 10 miles per hour tonight then becoming light and varibale
late tonight. (59)
Previous discussion... /issued 511 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015/
Short term...today through Thursday night
snow/sleet winding down this morning...but still going over
about the southeast half of the state. Winter storm warnings
remain in effect for these areas. Could see up to an inch of
accumulation...with locally up to two inches before the event
comes to a close this morning.
North/northeast winds remain gusty over the Delta this
morning...and kept a lake Wind Advisory in place.
Otherwise...there will be slow clearing from the west today.
Temperatures will be ridiculously cold for early March...with
afternoon reading struggling to reach freezing. We will drop
back into the single digits and teens tonight.
Long term...Friday through Wednesday
high pressure will settle over the region Friday morning...with many
record lows in jeopardy. Highs Friday afternoon will climb above
freezing...with the coolest areas in the east. South winds will
increase Saturday...with many areas climbing into the 50s.
Guidance has shown moisture increasing as wave moves along the Gulf
Coast. Have introduced probability of precipitation across the south Sunday...but have left
at slight chances. Moisture is then shunted back to the south...but
may move back north by middle week.