Area forecast discussion...update for aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
625 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Aviation...
Overall VFR conditions over northern Arkansas...VFR with patchy MVFR
conditions over central and southern locations. Ceilings will
gradually improving this morning before becoming all VFR late
morning. A few light showers may be possible mainly this morning. A
weak cold front will push through Arkansas today and switch winds from the
southeast to SW at 5 to 15 knots...to the SW to west to northwest at 5 to 15 knots.
(59)
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 250 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Short term...today through Saturday
Most of the precipitation has moved east of the County Warning Area this morning...with
only some isolated rain showers ongoing across portions of the County Warning Area as an
upper wave lifts NE over Arkansas. Cooler and less humid conditions are in
place across the state early this morning...with temperatures ranging from
the middle 50s across the northwest...to the low to middle 60s elsewhere. Keep
precipitation chances for rain showers through midday...ending from west to east as
the upper trough axis moves east of the state by this afternoon.
Precipitation chances will remain low through Thursday afternoon as northwest flow
aloft remains overhead. However...could see some increased precipitation
chances for Thursday and Thursday night as a weak upper disturbance moves over
western Arkansas. Best chances for precipitation will be across the western and southwestern
counties during this period.
By Friday morning...a cold front will have moved through the
state...with drier and cooler air moving into the state. Expect most
locations to remain dry...but some isolated precipitation activity could
be seen across the far west and SW near the frontal boundary. Expect
below normal conditions for Friday into Sat as the cooler...drier
airmass remains in place. For Sat...high pressure will begin to
slide to the east...with srly flow returning for late Sat. Moisture
levels will remain limited across much Arkansas for Sat as upper ridge
intensifies overhead. However...some precipitation could be seen across the
far west and northwest late in the period as a disturbance moves over the
ridge just north and west of Arkansas.
&&
Long term...Sunday through Tuesday
The extended forecast starts with an upper high pressure ridge over
the Central Plains...while surface high pressure is off to the east
of Arkansas...where a warm front has lifted north of Arkansas and a south wind
flow was over the area. Dry and warm conditions are expected for Arkansas
with only a hint of some upper energy north of Arkansas. This overall
pattern holds through Monday...with mainly dry and warm weather
conditions with a south wind flow. The upper ridge appears to break
down gradually to Tuesday...and some upper short wave energy does
lift across parts of northwest Arkansas to southern MO...bringing a slight chance
of convection to the area. Tuesday a developing storm system forms
over the west Central Plains...while Arkansas remains mainly dry...warm
with breezy day time conditions. Muggy conditions will be seen at
night with mild lows in the 60s...with some patchy low clouds and
fog in spots.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 82 59 82 56 / 20 10 0 0
Camden Arkansas 85 63 89 65 / 20 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 77 56 78 54 / 10 10 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 83 62 85 62 / 10 10 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 84 63 86 61 / 20 10 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 84 64 88 64 / 30 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 83 60 85 61 / 10 10 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 79 56 79 53 / 10 10 0 0
Newport Arkansas 82 61 82 56 / 20 10 10 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 84 64 87 62 / 30 10 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 82 60 83 59 / 10 10 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 82 61 84 58 / 20 10 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 83 63 85 60 / 30 10 10 0
&&
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Short term...62 / long term...59
