Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1255 am CDT Wednesday Sep 3 2014
An mesoscale convective system is currently developing in central Kansas. A stationary
front in Missouri will lift north today as a warm front. Showers
and thunderstorms will spread east from Kansas and possibly
affect north Arkansas this morning. Fog is included at all taf
sites this morning...as low level moisture increased after the
rain from Tuesday. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected this
morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.
Previous discussion... /issued 850 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/
Overall forecast on track. Convection overnight has uncertainty in
it with some models showing some to develop near OK and Kansas state
line late tonight...and moving east to along the MO and Arkansas state
line...while others much less to nothing. Some upper energy is
currently seen near the Texas and OK panhandles and if this holds as it
moves east...convection could reach Arkansas late to early Wednesday am.
Will fine tune forecast and have at least a slight chance over northwest
and north Arkansas. Otherwise lows tonight will mainly be in the 70s. Cloud
cover will be from mostly clear to cloudy spots. Some patchy fog
will be possible in those areas that saw rain today...mainly north
and south. Otherwise will fine tune a few elements...but no major
changes expected in late evening up. (59)
Previous discussion... /issued 633 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/
convection has moved east of the area...with VFR conditions across
the region. Short term guidance shows potential for another round
of thunderstorms to develop near Oklahoma/Kansas border and move
east/northeast. This will take it away from the northern taf sites
but did keep vcsh in for the hours around sunrise.
Previous discussion... /issued 242 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/
Short term...tonight through Friday night
The mesoscale convective system remnant has all but dissipated...with light scattered
precipitation here and there. Meanwhile...the outflow boundary has pushed
the diurnally driven convection to the southeast corner of the state.
For early evening...expect only lingering precipitation across the far NE
and far southeast corners of the state.
Models once again initiate a convective complex across southern
Missouri and northern Arkansas late tonight and into the
overnight. It appears that this system will remain mainly across
northern parts of the area as surface high pressure begins to
build in from the southeast. Smaller quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are expected as
The surface high pressure and somewhat less zonal ridging will be
in place Wednesday and Thursday. Under the influence of the high
pressure...mostly dry weather will noted...with only small chances
for hit and miss diurnal convection. Have elected to leave probability of precipitation
out of the forecast for now. Temperatures will also rebound into
the low to middle 90s for highs...and 70s for lows.
By late in the period...the surface high pressure will retreat and
the upper ridge will flatten out once again. This will allow for a
cold front to approach the state from north with precipitation chances
Long term...Saturday through Tuesday
Model solutions today remain in good overall agreement with regard to
forecast trends heading into early next week. Will continue to use an overall
blend of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) for this forecast.
The previous discussed cold front will be working through Arkansas on Sat...with a continued
good chance of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain noted along and ahead of it. Rain chances will be
on the decreases from the north Sat night and sun as the boundary shifts further southward
and drier air filters into the region. Leaned toward the optimistic
side of the European model (ecmwf) solution with probability of precipitation dcrsg a bit quicker compared to
the slower GFS to close out the weekend.
The associated high pressure ridge behind the cold front will start to breakdown and
shift eastward heading into next week. This will allow southerly winds to bring
warmer and more humid air back into the forecast area. Rain chances by this time
look to be more diurnal/isolated in nature.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 90 73 94 73 / 20 10 10 10
Camden Arkansas 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 88 71 92 71 / 20 10 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 91 75 93 74 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 91 75 94 74 / 10 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 91 74 92 74 / 10 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 91 73 92 73 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 89 72 94 72 / 20 10 10 10
Newport Arkansas 89 73 93 73 / 20 10 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 91 74 93 74 / 10 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 92 73 94 73 / 10 10 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 91 72 93 73 / 20 10 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 90 73 92 74 / 20 10 10 10