Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
640 PM CDT Friday Apr 24 2015
Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the state this
evening with conditions bordering between IFR and LIFR conditions.
Ceilings will improve little if any during the overnight hours
with VFR conditions returning after 12z Saturday. Low level wind shear will be a
concern during the overnight hours tonight at all taf sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 258 PM CDT Friday Apr 24 2015/
short term...tonight through Monday night
warm front still located over northeast Texas and still struggling
to make its anticipated push into Arkansas. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms have developed in advance of the boundary resulting in
much cooler than expected conditions. Still expecting the boundary
to make its move but now likely after dark and situation could be
one where temperatures slowly rise through the night.
Aforementioned showers and thunderstorms along with widespread cloud
cover has kept temperatures in check and have also stabilized the
atmosphere. Still can not rule out strong convection later tonight
but if it does develop...believe south Arkansas would the area most
susceptible to seeing severe storms.
Expecting rainfall to end late tonight but will hold on to some
chances over the east for early in the day. Temperatures are
expected to climb well into the 80s with a Stout southwest wind
developing behind the warm frontal boundary with low pressure moving
through central Missouri. A lake Wind Advisory may be required on
Trailing cold front will sweep through the state but not until
Sunday. No precipitation...occasional clouds and cooler temperatures
are expected following the frontal passage. Moisture will increase into Monday
with precipitation returning to the forecast starting in the middle to
late afternoon and continuing through the duration of the period.
Temperatures will fluxuate wildly with conditions bordering on hot
Saturday with a cool down expected om Sunday and cooler yet on
Monday. Stuck fairly close to mav/mex numbers.
Long term...Tuesday through Friday
an upper low pressure system will be over the plains to begin the
period with an upper ridge approaching The Rockies. The upper low
will move into the middle west Tuesday night and to the Great Lakes
Wednesday. The upper ridge will build over the plains Thursday and
over Arkansas Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing over Arkansas
Tuesday morning. Surface low pressure will move along the Gulf
Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances will diminish north to south across
the state Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances will diminish Wednesday as
the low moves east. Thursday and Friday should be dry with high
pressure building over the area. A warming trend will be noted
Wednesday through Friday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 61 84 56 72 / 70 10 10 10
Camden Arkansas 65 88 61 87 / 80 10 0 10
Harrison Arkansas 59 81 53 70 / 50 10 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 63 85 59 84 / 80 10 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 63 86 60 79 / 80 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 66 87 63 85 / 80 20 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 63 85 58 84 / 80 10 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 59 82 54 70 / 60 10 10 10
Newport Arkansas 61 84 57 72 / 80 20 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 64 86 61 82 / 80 20 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 60 85 57 79 / 60 10 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 61 85 58 75 / 80 20 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 63 85 60 79 / 80 20 10 10