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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
246 am CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

Short term...today through Tuesday

Temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s to upper 30s for most
areas...though some areas have seen winds stay up just enough to
keep some low 40s early this morning. However...many locations should
still see temperatures drop to below or around freezing by sunrise this Sat
morning. The exception being across portions of the southern and southeastern
County Warning Area. Freeze warning remains for all but those southern and southeastern counties
through 9 am this morning.

A fairly cool day will be seen this Sat...but winds will not be near
as breezy. Expect highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s across the
County Warning Area. This Sat night into sun...expect cool conditions once
again...with many location seeing temperatures around and just below
freezing by sunrise sun. Have upgraded the freeze watch to a freeze
warning for most areas. The exception for tonight will be areas
across the western and northwestern County Warning Area where winds may pick back up enough from
the south to keep temperatures just above freezing Sun morning. Will keep
the freeze watch for now in these areas...and if it becomes more
likely winds will keep temperatures above freezing Sun morning in the western
and northwestern County Warning Area...may end up canceling the freeze watch as a result
later today.

Srly flow will return for Sun afternoon as high pressure shifts east
of the region. However...the bulk of the moisture return will hold
off until Monday into Tuesday as the upper flow becomes SW over the state.
A cold front will then approach the state early on Tuesday...dropping
south into the state by late Tuesday into the long term period. Have
probability of precipitation increasing Monday night...with best probability of precipitation expected on Tuesday into Tuesday
night as the front slows over the state. Expect mainly rain showers...with
some thunderstorms and rain also possible. With the slowing progression of the
front...and with flow aloft becoming more parallel to the
front...there could be a period of heavy rainfall for portions of
the County Warning Area by late in the period. Overall precipitation accumulations right
now are on the order of 1 to 2 inches at this time for Tuesday. Precipitation
chances will then decrease early in the long term period.

&&

Long term...Wednesday through Friday

The extended forecast starts with a cold front slowly sagging to southeast
Arkansas...with chances of convection along and ahead of the boundary...as
well as light rain behind the front. Some light precipitation hangs on
behind the boundary...while Wednesday night...a second surge of cold
air filters into Arkansas...pushing any rain to south Arkansas. Models are
consistent with a broad upper trough over the eastern u... a
building upper ridge over the western U.S. Models do have a cut off
upper low pressure system over the lower SW U.S. Or far SW Texas...so
some short wave energy will spread eastward in the southern stream
at some point...mainly staying over the Gulf states. But uncertainty
late in the extended forecast does exist as the Euro moves this cut
off low pressure east and this would bring some possible convection
to Arkansas...while GFS moves most of the energy well south of Arkansas at this
time. Will have a slight chance of convection on Friday but
confidence is low. Temperatures overall in the extended will be
around normal values.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 52 30 56 41 / 0 0 0 0
Camden Arkansas 55 32 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 51 34 57 41 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 54 32 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 53 32 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 53 32 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 54 31 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 51 33 56 40 / 0 0 0 0
Newport Arkansas 52 30 56 39 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 53 32 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 54 30 58 40 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 53 30 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 52 31 58 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
freeze warning until 9 am CDT this morning for Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Faulkner-
Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-
Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-
Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-sharp-
stone-Van Buren-white-Woodruff-Yell.



Freeze warning from 1 am CDT to 8 am CST Sunday for Arkansas-
Baxter-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-
Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Searcy-
sharp-stone-Van Buren-white-Woodruff-Yell.



Freeze watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for Boone-
Johnson-Logan-Marion-Newton-Scott.

&&

$$

Short term...62 / long term...59

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