Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1113 am CST Friday Mar 7 2014
Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion below...
VFR conditions will be seen through the rest of the afternoon and
into the evening hours. Light srly winds will be seen...generally
less than 10 kts. By the overnight period...expect winds to
become light enough to see some fog develop once again for Sat
morning. By late in the forecast...a cold front will begin
dropping south from MO...with some rain chances increasing for the
Previous discussion... /issued 337 am CST Friday Mar 7 2014/
Short term...today through Monday night
An upper ridge will move across Arkansas today and will be along
the East Coast by Saturday morning. An upper trough will dive
south through The Rockies and into the plains Saturday and will
head into the Southern Plains Sunday. A closed low could then form
in Mexico Sunday and move into Texas Monday night.
Areas of freezing fog are expected to continue for a few hours
this morning across central...south...and parts of north Arkansas.
This could create some slick roadways especially on elevated
surfaces. High pressure will move east of Arkansas this
afternoon. Light winds will become south and allow temperatures to
warm nicely over the state. Highs today will be in the lower 50s
to middle 60s. A cold front will move into northwest Arkansas
Saturday morning and moisture will increase ahead of the front.
Rain showers will become likely by Saturday afternoon across much
of the state. The front will push south of the state Saturday
night and rain will diminish in the southeast corner Sunday
morning. High pressure builds over the area Sunday.
Models differ for Monday. The European model (ecmwf) has the moisture moving
further north into southern Arkansas than the GFS. Will continue
with the European model (ecmwf) solution and keep small rain chances in the south
Monday night. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are
expected through the period. Seventy degree temperatures are
anticipated by Monday.
Long term...Tuesday through Thursday
Models all agree that the pattern will remain unsettled early in
the period with a cold front expected to move through sometime in
the late Tuesday to early Wednesday time frame.
Unfortunately...that is just about all they agree on at this point
and an attempt to blend the wildly divergent solutions will be
Period initiates with models showing upper level low pressure in the
central part of Texas. European model (ecmwf) solution has a strong shortwave trough
diving southeast towards the state out of the central rockies while
the GFS is considerably weaker and further west.
Upper low over Texas moves east Tuesday with scattered showers in
the forecast with the European model (ecmwf) much more aggressive with its rainfall.
Aforementioned front moves through the state aided by low pressure
developing along the boundary itself with the European model (ecmwf) once again
showing greater precipitation amounts. While a thunderstorm or two
can not be excluded along the front...chances remain too small to
put in the forecast at this time.
As it turns colder behind the front...there could be a brief period
of wintry precipitation before the moisture shuts off but amounts
look minimal right now and confined to the northeast corner of the
forecast area. Temperatures will be above normal to start the
period...with below normal readings toward the end as another surge
of cool Canadian air moves in.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 53 38 58 36 / 0 0 50 60
Camden Arkansas 63 43 66 45 / 0 0 50 60
Harrison Arkansas 56 37 53 31 / 0 10 40 40
Hot Springs Arkansas 60 41 63 42 / 0 0 50 60
Little Rock Arkansas 58 41 63 42 / 0 0 50 60
Monticello Arkansas 62 43 67 46 / 0 0 50 50
Mount Ida Arkansas 60 41 62 40 / 0 0 50 60
Mountain Home Arkansas 58 36 54 32 / 0 10 50 50
Newport Arkansas 51 39 59 38 / 0 0 50 60
Pine Bluff Arkansas 58 43 65 44 / 0 0 50 60
Russellville Arkansas 60 38 60 37 / 0 10 50 60
Searcy Arkansas 52 39 61 40 / 0 0 50 60
Stuttgart Arkansas 56 42 64 43 / 0 0 50 60