Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
545 PM CST Thursday Jan 29 2015
north winds will subside in the next couple of hours...and will
gradually become east/southeast during the day Friday. One change
with this taf cycle is the introduction of lower clouds moving
back into northern sites...and even into central
Arkansas...overnight. For now...have kept scattered...but may have to
include a broken deck if confidence increases.
Previous discussion... /issued 255 PM CST Thursday Jan 29 2015/
Short term...tonight through Sunday night
Cold front continued working its way southward through the forecast area this afternoon...with the
boundary currently across southeastern Arkansas. Gusty northwest winds behind the frontal passage were
slowly ushering cooler air into the area...mainly over the northern half of
the forecast area. Middle afternoon temperatures had fallen back into the 40s over northern
locations...with 50s and 60s noted further to the S. Meanwhile...
just ahead of the fnt...far southern Arkansas warmed into the lower 70s.
High pressure will build into the middle south for Friday and into Sat...providing
for dry conds and seasonable temperatures. The ridge will shift eastward on Sat...
allowing a new storm system to approach from the west and bring unsettled conds
for the latter half of the weekend.
The models continue to agree on a split upper flow regime setting up over
the area this weekend. A develop storm system over the southwestern states will work
eastward bringing incrsg clouds and rain chances to Arkansas Sat night and sun.
While most of the area will see a cold rain Sat night and sun...colder
air will be working into the area Sun night. Precipitation will be diminishing from
the west late Sun afternoon and evening...but some locations over northern Arkansas
could see a dusting of light snow before it tapers off.
Long term...Monday through Thursday
Long term starts with high pressure moving into the region with northwest
flow aloft and well below normal temperatures. High pressure will
slide to the east by Tuesday...allowing a return of southerly flow.
Temperatures will be about ten degrees warmer on Tuesday...yet still
below normal. Moisture will increase across the region...ahead of a
cold front set to sweep through the state on Wednesday. The majority
of the precipitation will exist ahead of the front...behind the
front moisture will be quite limited but may still be enough to
support some wintry precipitation. High pressure will build back into the
region behind the front for Thursday with dry and cool weather
returning to the forecast.