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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
234 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Short term...today through Thursday

Conditions fairly quiet so far overnight...and most locations should
remain dry through sunrise. However...there could still be a few
isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain during this period. Chances for precipitation will
remain low through tonight...with some isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain remaining
possible during the heat of the afternoon. Temperatures will also be warmer
than in previous days...with middle 80s to low 90s.

A cold front will approach the state from the northwest starting late
tonight and trough much of Wednesday...with portions of the state seeing
increased probability of precipitation as a result. However...this front looks to stall to
the northwest of the state on Tuesday and Wednesday. The areas with best potential for
rainfall will be across the northwestern counties...though only chance probability of precipitation
are mentioned as the majority of the forcing and energy will remain
northwest of the County Warning Area. Areas to the northwest will also have increased potential
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the coming days.
However...due to these circumstances...do not see the need for a flash Flood Advisory
as most of the rainfall will be outside the County Warning Area. Now...if the
overall trends in the axis of heaviest rainfall and surface front
change...and the systems drop further southeast...will need to revisit the
flash flood and heavy rainfall threat. Even so...any thunderstorms
that do form will have the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
Outside the northwestern counties...keep probability of precipitation low during this same
period...but these areas could still see an isolated rain showers or thunderstorms and rain.

By Thursday...decrease probability of precipitation for most of the County Warning Area as the stalled front to
the northwest lifts back north...and an upper level ridge begins to expand
from the southeastern Continental U.S.. temperatures will also increase in response to this
expanding ridge to end the short term period.

&&

Long term...Friday through Sunday

Models are in good agreement this cycle with a dry and warm weather
pattern forecast. The upper high pressure ridge builds in over the
region from the southeast u... a cap on much of the chance
of any convection. During the heat of the day...an isolated storm
may be seen...but will keep the chance below slight chances.
Temperatures will start at normal values then warm to a bit above
normal values. Lows mainly in the lower 70s and highs in the lower
to middle 90s.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 89 74 90 73 / 20 20 30 30
Camden Arkansas 92 74 92 75 / 20 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 87 71 84 70 / 20 20 60 60
Hot Springs Arkansas 90 74 90 74 / 20 10 20 20
Little Rock Arkansas 91 74 91 75 / 20 10 20 20
Monticello Arkansas 91 74 92 75 / 20 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 89 73 88 74 / 20 10 30 30
Mountain Home Arkansas 88 73 87 72 / 20 20 50 50
Newport Arkansas 89 73 90 73 / 20 20 30 20
Pine Bluff Arkansas 91 73 91 74 / 20 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 92 73 89 73 / 20 20 30 30
Searcy Arkansas 90 73 90 73 / 20 10 30 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 90 72 91 73 / 20 10 20 20
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Short term...62 / long term...59

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