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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1254 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Aviation...

VFR conditions are forecast at all taf sites except kpbf...where
some patchy fog will be possible during the morning hours. Some
light showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms associated with a
weak cold front will push into the state...mainly across northern
and western portions of the state. Do expect fairly low coverage
with these storms and at this point just included thunderstorms in the vicinity in the tafs
at khro/kbpk/khot/kadf.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 613 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/

Aviation...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There
may be a brief shower early Saturday morning in the north as a
frontal boundary moves into the area. Tafs out shortly.

Previous discussion... /issued 237 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/

Discussion...

Main concerns this forecast cycle are chances of light convection
in northwest Arkansas this evening to tonight...then into the weekend over a
bit more of northern and central Arkansas. Then next chance of rain
looks to be well into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be
around normal values through the period. Continued moderate wild
fire danger with some burn bans over parts of central and southern
Arkansas.

Light convection over eastern OK did make progress east but has
weakened as it moved east. Only light showers seen. This was associated
with an upper level short wave energy. The upper trough over the
eastern plains has allowed the weak cold front to drift a bit more
east...over central Kansas...to eastern Nebraska. Moisture levels have come
up a little over Arkansas...with dew point temperatures from the upper 50s to
lower 60s over most of the state...while the middle 60s over the far
west.

Short term...tonight through Monday night

Models are consistent with bringing more upper short wave energy
into northern Arkansas later tonight and especially on Saturday...and
forecast will indicate this. Although...coverage does not look
high and mainly a slight chance to low chance of rain...with only
isolated thunder...is expected...and this is about as high I can
go at this time. Precipitation water values do come up over 1 inch over
the weekend...and may need a bit more isolated pop over the
weekend. At this time...have held convection chances mainly over
parts of northern and central Arkansas...with potential short wave
energy mainly over these areas. On Sunday...have moved pop chances
a bit farther north...but due to uncertainty...may have to add a
bit more pop chances Sunday. Into Monday...the weak upper trough
over the Southern Plains continues to weaken more and have held
forecast dry. As mentioned earlier...uncertainty does exist and
later forecasts may add slight chances. Temperatures will overall be
around normal values.

Long term...Tuesday through Friday...

An upper level ridge will set up in the central and eastern half of
the country during the extended term...with a trough across the west.
It appears that a weak shortwave will split the ridge and move
slowly across the south central part of the County.

Overall the surface pattern will keep a southerly to southeasterly flow across the
area...with temperatures and moisture levels building slowly.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 68 88 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
Camden Arkansas 69 92 69 94 / 10 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 65 85 65 88 / 20 10 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 69 91 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 70 91 70 93 / 10 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 68 92 70 93 / 10 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 67 90 68 91 / 10 10 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 66 87 67 90 / 20 10 10 10
Newport Arkansas 68 88 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 68 92 68 93 / 10 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 67 91 68 92 / 10 10 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 67 91 67 92 / 10 10 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 68 91 68 93 / 10 10 10 10
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...65

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