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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
312 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

Short term...tonight through Sunday night
cloud cover remains across a good portion of the northern half of the County Warning Area
early this afternoon...keeping temperatures cool once again. Further
south...less cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s...as
well as being along and just south of a weak surface boundary draped
across the southern sections of the state. Some rain showers/thunderstorms and rain have developed
around this boundary this afternoon. Will continue to see the best
potential for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain generally across the southern third of the County Warning Area
through this evening...in vicinity of this boundary of warm humid
air and the cooler air to the north. While widespread severe weather is not
expected...this activity could pulse up to strong or even severe levels
at some point.

Have probability of precipitation decreasing this evening and overnight with the loss of
daytime heating. The decreased precipitation chances will persist through
Friday and even into Sat as an upper level ridge develops over the
region. This ridge will also allow for temperatures to rebound for a larger
portion of the state.

Have some rain chances returning late Sat...and especially for sun
as a front begins to drop south towards the state. This front looks
to move into the state late in the period...and interact with what
left of the remnants of Odile. However...the moisture levels look to
be much less than earlier expected...so have decreased probability of precipitation some as
coverage of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain may be a bit more isolated.
&&

Long term...Monday through Thursday
an upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to strengthen over
the eastern US during the period...shifting the forecast area away
from a northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface...high pressure to the east
will keep winds flowing in an Ely to northeasterly direction through
Wednesday with maximum temperatures remaining at or just below normal levels.
Winds will swing around and become more southeasterly on Thursday and a few
showers and thunderstorms could affect the southern and western
zones during the daytime.
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 62 83 62 87 / 10 10 10 10
Camden Arkansas 68 89 69 91 / 20 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 62 81 64 84 / 10 10 10 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 67 86 68 88 / 20 10 10 20
Little Rock Arkansas 67 86 67 90 / 10 10 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 68 89 68 91 / 20 10 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 67 84 67 87 / 20 10 10 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 62 81 63 86 / 10 10 10 20
Newport Arkansas 62 83 62 87 / 10 10 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 67 87 66 90 / 20 10 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 67 85 66 88 / 10 10 10 20
Searcy Arkansas 65 84 64 88 / 10 10 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 65 85 65 89 / 10 10 10 10
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

Short term...62 / long term...53

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