Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
309 am CDT Friday may 24 2013
Short term...today through Monday
Dry conditions seen across the state this morning as winds from the
NE usher in dry air behind a cold front. Skies were partly to mostly
cloudy as high clouds from the west moved over Arkansas. Expect dry
conditions to persist through this Friday as drier and cooler air moves
into the state. Some locations across the far west and SW could see
some isolated convection...but keep below mention probability of precipitation for now as
potential seems too low at this time. Temperatures will be below normal for
highs...with temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to upper 70s.
After a cool morning on Sat...with morning lows in the upper 40s to
upper 50s...moisture levels will begin returning across the west as
surface high pressure shifts east...and upper level ridge axis begins
shifting east as well. Most locations should remain dry however...but
do mention probability of precipitation across the far west and northwest as there will be higher
moisture levels in that portion of Arkansas. Better probability of precipitation will be seen on
Sat night and especially on sun as a weak upper disturbance rotates
around the top of the ridge in place...mainly over northwestern Arkansas. Best
probability of precipitation will be across the northwestern and northern counties for sun.
Upper ridge will remain in place through the end of the
forecast...with most locations remaining dry for Monday.
However...could seen some diurnally driven convection during the
heating of the afternoon hours. Will keep probability of precipitation below mention at this
time however.
&&
Long term...Tuesday through Thursday
No notable changes made to the long term forecast tonight. Models
are generally in good agreement through the period...showing a ridge
up upper level high pressure situated over the southeastern
Continental U.S...and an upper trough or closed low digging out a home across
the Desert Southwest. As such...the forecast area should be mostly
dry. However with persistent and somewhat deep southerly flow an
isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm will certainly be possible
each day. Did not put mention of precipitation in the forecast though as
any convection should be isolated enough in nature not to warrant
broad-brushed slight chance probability of precipitation.
Otherwise...the only tweaks made to the forecast would be minor
temperature adjustments to align with latest guidance and also to
adjust cloud cover forecasts to a more diurnally favored trend.
Morning cloudiness should be fairly prevalent each day...especially
in the west...but this should give way to afternoon cumulus and then
clearing skies in the evening with loss of daytime heating.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 72 50 78 60 / 0 0 10 20
Camden Arkansas 79 57 84 64 / 10 10 10 10
Harrison Arkansas 72 51 79 60 / 0 0 20 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 77 56 83 64 / 0 0 10 20
Little Rock Arkansas 76 53 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 78 55 83 64 / 0 0 10 10
Mount Ida Arkansas 77 55 81 63 / 10 10 20 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 73 50 79 59 / 0 0 10 20
Newport Arkansas 73 51 78 60 / 0 0 10 10
Pine Bluff Arkansas 76 54 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
Russellville Arkansas 76 54 81 62 / 0 0 10 20
Searcy Arkansas 73 51 79 60 / 0 0 10 10
Stuttgart Arkansas 74 53 80 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Short term...62 / long term...64
