Area forecast discussion...update for aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1235 am CDT sun may 26 2013
Aviation...
Overall VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Scattered to broken middle and high clouds will be over the area as an
upper system moves across Arkansas. Also isolated showers will be possible
overnight. Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots. On Sunday...additional
clouds will be seen...with a slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms at all tafs...as the upper system drifts over Arkansas.
Only used thunderstorms in the vicinity due to uncertainty of convection potential. (59)
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 948 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013/
Update...
area of convection persists across southwestern Arkansas at this time...but activity has
shown an overall weakening trend with loss of daytime heating.
Raised probability of precipitation to chance Cat across the southwestern part of the forecast area overnight as
associated shortwave lifts slowly northward across the area. Raised min temperatures a
few degrees over western areas based on incrsd cloud cover/dewpoints.
Adjusted corresponding hrly grids to account for these changes. Rest
of forecast in good shape. All updates have been sent. /44/
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 234 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013/
Short term...tonight through Tuesday night
clouds will continue to be prevalent tonight...as moisture
gradient near the remnants of an old frontal boundary surge
northward across the state. At the same time...an upper level
system will move through and interact with these remnants. The
result will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
region tonight through Sunday night.
Models have come back a little more bullish on precipitation chances...
and as such raised them slightly in most areas. Still though...
at this time...only isolated/scattered showers/storms are
expected.
Any lingering precipitation on Sunday evening will move northeast of the
region by late Sunday night...as upper ridging builds in from the
southwest. Through the early part of the week...a slow warming
trend will be noted...with afternoon temperatures mainly in the
80s and overnight lows mainly in the 60s.
With low pressure developing in the plains early in the week...the
pressure gradient between it and high pressure centered over the
southeast Continental U.S. Will allow for elevated winds over the region on
Monday and Tuesday.
Long term...Wednesday through Saturday
southwesterly upper level flow will prevail across the middle south
during this period. Expect widely scattered...diurnally driven
convection across at least western sections each day. Near normal
temperatures are expected through the period.
&&
Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
