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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
613 am CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Discussion...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

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Aviation...

Low ceilings will gradually clear out of the area over the next
couple of hours. Winds will shift to the north starting later this
morning and will remain fairly light through the afternoon. Winds
will shift to the east this evening.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 445 am CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

Discussion...

WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough over OK, leaving West
Texas/southeast nm under northwest flow aloft. At the sfc, a very diffuse dryline
extended from the wrn Low Rolling Plains down into The Big Bend,
whereas further north, a cold front was approaching the area.
Buffer soundings put fropa at kmaf at around noon, but this should
have a negligible effect on afternoon highs. All models develop
convection along the front east of the area later today, then
develop it westward along the front into the lwr trans Pecos by late
afternoon.

Tuesday, an upper-lvl ridge will build east into the region, but
quickly move on as the next trough builds into the pacnw. As this
feature traverses the U.S.-Canadian border, flow aloft becomes SW,
and leeside troughing will induce westerly flow over the mountains,
all resulting in a weak dryline developing Wednesday afternoon.
Models differ slightly on where the dryline develops, but critical
fire wx conditions will be possible west of the dryline, and
convection along/east of the dryline. This is too far out for a
fire wx watch, so we've just outlooked it for
now.

Upper trough will pass thru the area Wednesday night, followed by SW
flow aloft as upper ridging develops over the Gulf Coast. This will
result in well-abv normal temps Friday/Saturday. Friday night,
another upper trough makes landfall on the West Coast, and tilts
negatively into the upper rockies Sunday. This will result in
increasing westerly flow over the weekend, and more critical fire
wx. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) hint at a dryline event Saturday night,
W/the GFS further west than the European model (ecmwf). For now, we'll keep the
grids dry, and advertise increasing winds, especially
Sunday.

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Andrews Texas 87 59 86 62 / 10 0 0 0
Big Spring Texas 87 58 87 59 / 10 0 0 0
Carlsbad nm 84 60 85 60 / 10 0 0 0
Dryden Texas 90 64 89 65 / 20 10 0 0
Fort Stockton Texas 89 60 89 65 / 10 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass Texas 79 57 79 60 / 10 10 10 10
Hobbs nm 84 55 84 61 / 10 0 0 0
Marfa Texas 80 48 80 50 / 10 10 10 10
Midland International Airport Texas 89 60 88 61 / 10 0 0 0
Odessa Texas 88 61 87 63 / 10 0 0 0
Wink Texas 91 60 90 61 / 10 0 0 0

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Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

&&

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