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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
610 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

Discussion...
see aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. West to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusty will
diminish to generally 10 mph or less near sunset and tonight
through mid Sunday morning. Winds will become northwest at
generally at 10 to 20 mph and gusty by mid Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon.

12

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 217 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015/

Discussion...

A cutoff low over Colorado will translate eastward today, open up
on Sunday, then eject northeastward through the Midwest Monday as
it becomes entrained in the northern jet stream. Westerly flow
aloft over the region today will transition to northwesterly and
weaken as a result. Aside from any residual thunderstorms over the
lower trans Pecos this afternoon, the forecast will remain dry
through Sunday as moist low level air will be shunted eastward. A
cold front will also drop into the area Sunday and keep temperatures
seasonal, but there does not appear to be enough moisture for any
precipitation. A surface ridge will drop into the area Sunday
night, but move quickly eastward Monday due to persistent northwest
flow aloft. There may be enough moisture return Monday afternoon
for a few thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains, with any convection
spreading into the lower trans Pecos Monday night on the return
moisture axis. There does not appear to be much support for
convection in the mid levels from any passing shortwave trough, so
pops will be low.

Into the extended, a split flow regime aloft will develop with a
southern stream shortwave trough gradually progressing eastward
across the Baja Peninsula and northern Mexico through mid next week,
and into the area late next week. A dryline will set up over the
area Tuesday with diurnal fluctuations occurring thereafter through
weeks end. As temperatures warm above normal, will include a
slight chance of thunderstorms most days from Tuesday through
Friday. The pops will be low these days until we get a little
closer to those time frames due to a variety of solutions on the
locations of the dryline, discrete shortwave troughs ejecting over
the region ahead of the ua trough, and the eventual passage of the
trough.

Fire weather...

Conditions will be dry today with most places across the County Warning Area
experiencing minimum relative humidity values of 15 percent or less. Winds will
pick up this afternoon across the area with southeast New Mexico and
the Guadalupe Mountains experiencing winds of at least 20 mph. Due
to these conditions, a red flag warning is in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico through early this
evening. Winds will decrease around sunset and relative humidity values will
increase with a cold front moving into the area Sunday morning, so
fire weather concerns will end after this evening. Low relative humidity values
will be along and south of the Pecos River Sunday afternoon but wind
speeds will be much lower.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Andrews Texas 50 75 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
Big Spring Texas 53 78 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad nm 49 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden Texas 56 87 58 75 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Stockton Texas 56 80 50 76 / 0 0 0 10
Guadalupe Pass Texas 50 73 44 73 / 0 10 0 0
Hobbs nm 47 72 43 74 / 0 0 10 0
Marfa Texas 40 73 41 75 / 0 0 0 10
Midland International Airport Texas 54 78 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa Texas 54 78 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
Wink Texas 49 80 49 78 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...red flag warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... Guadalupe Mountains np/Lincoln nf/lnz...southeast
plains/blm Roswell/lnz.

Texas...red flag warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... Guadalupe Mountains.



&&

$$

80/67

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