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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Discussion...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what's left of it, over West
Texas and southeast New Mexico, but W/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night's cold front. In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the baja
trough is bringing a canopy of cs over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the fa,
W/a TD of 53f at kmaf at 19z. Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning. Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we'll go W/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints. As
the baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east. Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 j/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and mid-lvl
lr's of nr 7c/km. Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable for a hail
threat, and a dry planetary boundary layer to keep damaging winds in play. We'll put a
mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for this for
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Convection should clear the area to the
east by 06z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, W/a
gradual warmup. Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
corners, W/a 25-35kt 700 mb jet forecast to round the base of this
feature. Forecast soundings at kgdp/kcnm mix out to above 700 mb
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the guadalupes, southeast nm, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
W/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday. Minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the southeast zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Andrews Texas 57 82 52 86 / 0 10 10 10
Big Spring Texas 62 87 62 89 / 0 30 10 10
Carlsbad nm 52 81 50 87 / 0 10 10 10
Dryden Texas 61 84 59 90 / 0 50 20 10
Fort Stockton Texas 61 86 59 88 / 10 40 10 10
Guadalupe Pass Texas 59 75 52 77 / 0 10 10 0
Hobbs nm 52 81 49 83 / 0 10 10 10
Marfa Texas 49 74 46 78 / 0 20 10 10
Midland International Airport Texas 60 86 57 86 / 0 30 10 10
Odessa Texas 60 85 56 86 / 0 20 10 10
Wink Texas 54 86 52 90 / 0 20 10 10

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

&&

$$

12/44

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