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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
1222 am CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Discussion...
see aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...
prevailing VFR conditions are expected for much of the night with
tempo MVFR ceilings expected at the terminals in the 12z to 16z
Monday time frame. An upper level low pressure area across northern
Mexico will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and West Texas during
the day Monday. Confidence was high enough to include prob 30
groups from 15z to 21z Monday for MVFR conditions in -tsra at
kcnm, kpeq, kfst.

12

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 606 PM CDT sun Oct 19 2014/

Discussion...

The latest aviation discussion is included below.

Aviation...

Thunderstorms will likely stay east of all area terminals through
tonight. VFR conditions will persist through the evening, but
expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas taf sites by 20/12z. Ceilings may dip to IFR early Monday
morning, in addition to MVFR visibilities in fog possibly
materializing. For now, will include the MVFR ceilings.

Previous discussion... /issued 222 PM CDT sun Oct 19 2014/

Discussion...as of 2:15 PM CDT Sunday...satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the County Warning Area. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern County Warning Area at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the Texas/la border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over Arizona/nm/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the County Warning Area starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as 850 mb temps warm.

Strobin

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Andrews Texas 56 72 54 70 / 30 30 30 30
Big Spring Texas 58 75 58 74 / 30 20 20 20
Carlsbad nm 56 72 55 68 / 30 60 50 30
Dryden Texas 64 79 62 77 / 20 40 30 40
Fort Stockton Texas 57 73 57 74 / 30 50 40 40
Guadalupe Pass Texas 51 63 50 62 / 40 60 50 50
Hobbs nm 54 70 53 68 / 40 50 40 30
Marfa Texas 51 66 51 65 / 50 70 50 50
Midland International Airport Texas 57 75 56 73 / 30 30 30 30
Odessa Texas 57 74 56 73 / 30 30 30 30
Wink Texas 59 71 57 73 / 30 50 50 40

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

&&

$$

49/33

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