Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
616 am CDT Tue Sep 30 2014



Aviation...
12z taf issuance...
no major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours. Have yet to see
MVFR vis materialize at cnm this morning but think there is still a
chance and will continue mention for the next couple of hours.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expect to prevail.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 401 am CDT Tue Sep 30 2014/

Discussion...
temperatures will be a bit above normal today and tomorrow with
the help of westerly mid and upper level flow across the area. An
upper low over the north Central Plains will lift north today, and
while normally this would have little impact on West Texas and
southeast New Mexico, today it will give a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms thanks to tropical moisture from
Tropical Storm Rachel in the eastern Pacific. East pac moisture
was the source for our flooding rains last week but right now
there is much less moisture so just a few storms is all that is
expected.

A second upper trough drops into the southern rockies Thursday
bringing our next cold front. High temperatures will be tricky as
the front will pass through the County Warning Area during the day and timing will
be critical as to how much pre-frontal heating will occur before
cold air advection begins. Most models right now show a mid-day
fropa at maf with little heating in northern Lea County and hot
temperatures mainly along the Rio Grande Valley. Not impressed
with the strength of the upper trough so will not place any pops
in with the frontal passage at this time though isolated storms in
the eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains where
limited moisture will be available would not be a surprise at all.

In the wake of the trough a broad ridge over the western states
will develop and remain stationary keeping US in a northwest flow
pattern through the weekend. This will cause temps to only slowly
warm from highs near 80 on Friday to the mid and upper 80s by
early next week.

Hennig

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

&&

$$

27

Follow US on facebook and twitter at:
http://facebook.Com/nwsmidland
http://twitter.Com/nwsmidland

Check US out on the internet at:
http://weather.Gov/Midland

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations