Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
624 am CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015


Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.



Some light MVFR fog has developed through the Pecos River valley
this morning, affecting kcnm, kpeq, and kfst. Have included tempos
for the fog through 14z this morning, after which VFR conditions
are expected to prevail across all taf sites. Thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and tonight, with the best chance at kcnm,
and to a lesser extent, khob. Have not included mention in the
current tafs however, given uncertainties in exact timing of


Previous discussion... /issued 348 am CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015/

an upper low can be seen on infrared this morning over srn California. This
cut off low will slowly move east with thunderstorm chances
increasing across the area as it approaches. Currently models are
taking this low across Arizona/nm down into northern Mexico by Thursday.
This track will result in several days of good rain chances for
the region with potential for locally heavy rain.

May also see some severe wx today/tonight mainly across the west.
The far western County Warning Area is in the swody1 slight risk... potential for
large hail and damaging wind as storms could have strong updrafts...
will highlight in severe weather potential statement. Could see some severe storms again on
Wednesday but should begin to transition into a heavy rain event.
East to southeast flow will continue to bring good low level moisture into the
area with dewpts in the 50s and 60s. Model soundings show precipitable water
increasing to around 1.5 inches for the Permian Basin. Models qpf
does develop significant amounts of precip beginning tonight out
west. Plan on issuing a Flash Flood Watch for late tonight through
Wednesday for the western counties. Expect this watch will be
expanded both in duration and coverage on later shifts as high pops
continue Thursday and Friday. Thanks neighboring offices for

Temperatures will be affected by all this precipitation. Significant
amounts of clouds and rain will keep temps down across the west today.
Lower temps expand east into the Permian Basin Wednesday and Thursday
as the rain chances increase. Readings remain below normal through
Saturday. Warmer temps return by early next week as forecast dries


Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
for the following zones... central Lea County...Eddy County
plains...Guadalupe Mountains np/Lincoln nf/lnz...Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County...northern Lea County...southeast
plains/blm Roswell/lnz...southern Lea County.

Texas...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening
for the following zones... Davis/Apache Mountains area...
Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Presidio
valley...Reeves County and upper trans Pecos...Van Horn and
Highway 54 corridor.




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations