Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
442 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015
See 12z aviation discussion below.
Much quieter morning this am, west/a few high cloud over West Texas
and southeast New Mexico under ridging aloft. Still a lot of
moisture over the eastern terminals due to last night's MCS, and
stratus remains in play. Latest buffer soundings bring in a couple
of hours of IFR ceilings at kmaf, and MVFR at kfst around sunrise.
Otherwise, a fairly widespread, low-based cumulus field is forecast to
develop late morning/early afternoon. A 35+kt low level jet resumes near the
end of the forecast period.
Previous discussion... /issued 327 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015/
No major changes anticipated over the next several days as an upper
ridge to our west dominates the weather pattern.
The upper ridge over the western half of the U.S. Has set up Camp
and doesn't look to go anywhere soon. Without any discernible
features, most of the area will stay dry today with an isolated
storm possible in the Davis Mountains. With our region on the
eastern fringe of the ridge through the end of the week, the door is
open for middle-level disturbances to move south, as was the case
yesterday morning. The best chance for this to occur is Thursday
night into Friday morning. Middle-level flow will be somewhat weaker
than previous days so it is uncertain how far south storms may move
once they develop across the Texas Panhandle Thursday afternoon.
Heading into the weekend, the upper ridge slowly builds east but
never really strengthens. Meanwhile, a Theta-E axis sets up across
nm and far West Texas as monsoonal moisture increases. This will
keep the best chance of rain for our area across the Guadalupe
Mountains and adjacent plains into the first half of next week.
Models then show the upper high centering itself overhead late next
week with dry conditions.
Will undercut temperature guidance today for areas that saw the
heaviest rain yesterday (mainly the central permian basin). Highs
will likely stay below normal for the rest of the week with a good
amount of low-level moisture in place. Middle-level heights start to
increase this weekend into next week so expect high temperatures to
slowly climb. As of right now, your 4th of July Holiday looks great
with highs mostly in the low to middle 90's and a chance for rain
across the higher terrain of West Texas and southeast nm.