Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
236 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

Discussion...
West Texas remains on the western periphery of an upper high
centered over the Mississippi River valley. This will allow
convection to develop over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains and
move north into southeast New Mexico, a pattern which will repeat
for the next several days. High temperatures will remain slightly
above normal and it will be very tough to beat guidance through
next Wednesday.

An upper trough currently over the northwestern U.S. Will slowly
move east through early next week reaching the Central Plains by
Thursday. There is more disagreement with the strength and timing
of this system from yesterday with the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian models
deeper and slower than the GFS. Do not like the fact that the
European model (ecmwf) is deeper with the upper trough yet weaker with the surface
front so the battle is mainly between the Canadian and GFS right
now. All models have slowed the front down from yesterday
perhaps indicating a deeper upper trough may be the best solution.
Hopefully that will be true as it would give US better rain
chances but with so much uncertainty will keep pops at slight
chance for now. A stronger front as well as clouds and precip
would no doubt give US a nice cold pool at the surface so any
increase in pops will likely mean a need to lower forecast highs
for Thu/Fri. A return of ridging next weekend will bring more
warmer temps.

Hennig

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Andrews Texas 72 96 72 95 / 10 10 10 10
Big Spring Texas 73 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad nm 70 97 72 96 / 10 10 10 10
Dryden Texas 74 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton Texas 72 97 72 96 / 0 10 10 0
Guadalupe Pass Texas 66 88 66 87 / 10 20 20 20
Hobbs nm 68 95 69 93 / 10 10 10 10
Marfa Texas 62 89 63 88 / 10 10 10 10
Midland International Airport Texas 73 97 72 96 / 0 10 10 0
Odessa Texas 73 97 73 95 / 10 10 10 0
Wink Texas 73 99 74 98 / 10 10 10 0

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

&&

$$

05/10

Follow US on facebook and twitter at:
http://facebook.Com/nwsmidland
http://twitter.Com/nwsmidland

Check US out on the internet at:
http://weather.Gov/Midland

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations