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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
201 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Discussion...
minor shrtwv trof within mid level trof axis is lifting nwd across
the pb with rain showers renewed in wrn pb/southeast nm. Presence of clouds have
limited surface based instability so only low order pops warranted
rest of afternoon/evening, especially ern 1/3 of County warning forecast area. The exception
will be to the W and mostly north of I-20 where said mid level trof
will sharpen some and where mid level lift will increase late tonight.
Pops tonight were in the sct-likely range across the W, but that
was probably too high/too far E (in the 06z-12z window) and have
opted to decrease those on the southern and eastern extent before
12z. Pretty good agreement that highest pops will be btwn 15z-21z
Wed across the pb, which is handled well in current fcst. Local
heavy rain is still possible too and have included a mention Wed
across parts of the pb where pops are generally greater than 55%.
The chance of rain will move ewd thru the County warning forecast area into thur am with
the slow moving mid level trof. Rain cooled air underneath lower
heights will make for below normal temps Wed PM. Mostly trending
warmer and drier thur-Sunday with hier heights thur-Fri and more
prominent low level thermal ridging Sat- Monday. Models do
indicate that front has slowed from Monday afternoon (as seen in
yesterdays runs) to Tuesday morning.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Andrews Texas 58 74 56 81 / 30 60 30 10
Big Spring Texas 59 70 60 81 / 20 50 30 10
Carlsbad nm 60 73 54 82 / 50 30 10 10
Dryden Texas 63 74 62 80 / 20 40 30 10
Fort Stockton Texas 61 77 59 83 / 30 50 30 10
Guadalupe Pass Texas 53 69 57 77 / 50 30 20 10
Hobbs nm 56 72 53 80 / 40 40 20 10
Marfa Texas 51 73 49 77 / 50 40 40 10
Midland International Airport Texas 58 74 57 80 / 30 60 30 10
Odessa Texas 59 76 58 80 / 30 60 30 10
Wink Texas 61 78 58 86 / 30 50 20 10

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

&&

$$

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