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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
932 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015


Updating the forecast to lower high temperatures back into the
20's and 30's for most areas this afternoon. Clouds and heavy
freezing drizzle look to hang on most of the day for the Permian
Basin and southeast nm which should keep temps from moving too much. Will
also extend the Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST as travel
condition will continue to be hazardous.


Previous discussion... /issued 458 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015/


See 12z aviation discussion below.


Current sfc obs show stratus and fog socked in this am, W/all
terminals under IFR and vlifr conditions. Area radars show heavier
precip remains north of the the form of snow...whereas
closer to home...clouds are not cold enough. Instead, a walk
outside confirms a freezing mizzle that radar is not picking up.
Models bring this to an end by 18z, W/skies scattering out to VFR in
the 18-22z time frame as sfc flow veers to southeast. However,
redevelopment is likely again overnight. Buffer soundings try to
develop vlifr cigs, but this is likely too pessimistic, and we'll go
no lower than LIFR attm.

Previous discussion... /issued 450 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015/


Temperatures in the teens and twenties are across the area this
morning under cloudy skies. Wintry precipitation is to the north of
the County Warning Area and appears like it will remain to the north of the area.
There is a chance for freezing drizzle and fog this morning across
the area so a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this
morning for southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, and The Trans Pecos area. Areas of drizzle and
freezing drizzle will remain possible across the far eastern County Warning Area
through tonight. Temperatures are expected to warm up today as 850
mb temperatures warm but temperatures will still remain well below
normal values.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California by Sunday with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as 850 mb temperatures warm and the clouds
decrease in coverage. On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area. Showers may
develop starting Sunday night as a result of the increase in lift.
High temperatures on Monday are not expected to be quite as warm due
to an increase in cloud cover and cooler temperatures aloft.
Temperatures will warm up on Tuesday as a surface trough develops
across the area with elevated westerly winds contributing to
downslope warming. There is a slight chance of rain across the
Guadalupe Mountains and the Van Horn area as the upper trough gets
closer to the region. The upper trough will begin passing over the
area on Wednesday with a slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms beginning Tuesday night. The models are showing a
cold front associated with the upper trough moving into the area on
Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to cool to below normal
Wednesday and Thursday behind the front before gradually warming
back up on Friday. There is a slight chance of snow developing
Wednesday night behind the front across parts of southeast New
Mexico, the northwest Permian Basin, and into the Guadalupe


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Andrews Texas 30 30 66 37 / 30 10 0 20
Big Spring Texas 30 30 64 37 / 30 10 10 20
Carlsbad nm 33 33 68 43 / 20 10 0 20
Dryden Texas 45 42 70 53 / 20 10 0 20
Fort Stockton Texas 30 30 71 46 / 20 10 0 20
Guadalupe Pass Texas 41 39 65 40 / 20 10 0 20
Hobbs nm 28 28 65 37 / 20 10 0 20
Marfa Texas 60 28 72 36 / 20 10 0 10
Midland International Airport Texas 31 31 67 39 / 30 10 0 20
Odessa Texas 31 31 67 40 / 30 10 0 20
Wink Texas 34 34 69 42 / 20 10 0 20


Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the
following zones... central Lea County...Eddy County
plains...northern Lea County...southern Lea County.

Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
Mountains area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
Reagan...Reeves County and upper trans Pecos...Scurry...




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