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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
612 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Discussion...

The latest aviation discussion is included below.

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Aviation...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours,
except for temporary MVFR visibility at kcnm with any thunderstorms and rain after
02/21z.

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Previous discussion... /issued 324 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015/

Discussion...
00z deterministic models initialized the center of subtropical high
from SW of kelp to Davis mtns region. Satellite more or less
confirms this with definitive monsoonal circulation noted - a
moisture rich and active Theta-E ridge axis from Mexico into the 4
corners region with weak northwest mid level flow across ern nm plains and
S plains. The wx forecast/pattern over the next few days will be
focused around these said features and their movement east (theta-E
ridge) and redevelopment W (subtropical ridge). Today slight
chance/chance pops will be mostly confined to The Trans Pecos and southeast
nm, possibly a shower in the E. Caveat for today is this morning's
outflow boundary that may be a focus across the pb. More interesting
is the wx on Monday when there will likely be an increase in coverage
of storms from Van Horn/gdp mtns/southeast nm before 00z/Tue and into pb
after 00z/Tue. Precipitable water will be +1 to +2 Standard deviations
suggesting heavy rain will be a concern. Said storms will likely push
out an outflow boundary and thereby increasing potential for storms
across pb. As such will start to trend pops up. On Tue the Theta-E
ridge axis will be across The Heart of the County warning forecast area from WSW-ENE. Mid
level flow will likely still be northwest and the best pops will be from
Davis mtns into srn pb. We expect it to be hotter today than
yesterday across most areas, exception will be parts of Lea/Gaines
co where precip has fallen early this morning. Optimistically, we
expect that increased clouds/precip will hold temps in check Mon
across upper trans Pecos/southeast nm and if the rain is indeed widespread
enough temps may be suppressed some even into Tue. From Wed Onward
it will be all about the heat as the subtropical ridge moves E and
builds across the County warning forecast area resulting in a prolonged period of triple
digit heat across the plains with records possible.

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring Texas 98 74 98 75 / 20 10 10 20
Carlsbad nm 99 73 97 72 / 20 20 40 50
Dryden Texas 100 75 100 75 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Stockton Texas 99 74 99 74 / 10 10 10 20
Guadalupe Pass Texas 91 70 88 69 / 20 20 40 50
Hobbs nm 95 70 97 70 / 10 10 30 40
Marfa Texas 91 65 91 65 / 30 30 30 20
Midland International Airport Texas 99 74 99 74 / 10 10 10 30
Odessa Texas 99 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 30
Wink Texas 103 76 102 75 / 10 10 30 40

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Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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