Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
1026 am CDT Thu Oct 2 2014
Latest obs/sfc analysis shows fropa occurring at kmaf, W/kmaf 12z
radiosonde observation and buffer soundings suggesting afternoon temps about 10
degrees cooler than yesterday. We'll do a quick update to adjust a
temp or two here and there to mesh W/current conditions, and
adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates out shortly.
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, W/little cloud
development in Post-frontal regime.
Previous discussion... /issued 355 am CDT Thu Oct 2 2014/
high temperatures yesterday were well above normal values for this
time of year but luckily a cold front will push through the region
today as an ua trough swings into the plains. The front looks to
enter the northwest zones shortly and move southeast reaching a Midland/ft.
Stockton line by mid morning, then through the entire County Warning Area by noon.
With a morning fropa expected, high temperatures will to be about
5-10 degrees cooler at most locations this afternoon compared to
yesterday. No rain is expected with this front. Winds will shift to
the north-northwest behind the front and become a bit breezy through this
afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease this evening as a surface ridge
settles into the area overnight and the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. Light winds, clear skies, drier air and continued cooling
will result in low temperatures falling to 40s and 50s across the
region by early Friday morning. An extra shot of cool air on
Friday will help continue these pleasant temperatures through
Saturday with near normal readings expected.
Southerly flow at the surface returns Saturday as the surface
ridge moves east of the region due to the development of a Lee
surface trough extending southward into the region. This will
result in the beginning of the slow warming trend expected through
at least the beginning of next week. Model guidance continues to
show a weak disturbance moving over the region, in northwest flow aloft,
Sunday but best available moisture looks to stay to the east and
we should remain dry.
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