Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
504 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Discussion...
WV imagery shows an upper trough over NE nm...set to move through the
panhandles by late this afternoon. At the surface...observation showed a cold
front moving through southeast nm/western Low Rolling Plains...and will result in
afternoon temperatures about a Cat below normal today. Models develop
convection on the leading edge of the trough as it swings through the
panhandles later today...but only grazes the NE zones. Cooler weather
will be short-lived though...as the surface ridge quickly moves
southeast...allowing return flow to resume...and a quick rebound to
above-normal temperatures Wednesday under a developing ridge.
Meanwhile...return flow will advect abundant Gulf moisture into the
area...W/forecast dewpoints of 60f or better through kmaf by 12z
Thursday. Thursday afternoon...models bring the first of a series
of perturbations through the ridge...initiating convection in vicinity of a weak
dryline...and even more so Friday...when models back the dryline up
beyond kgdp. Models have been consistent west/this scenario for
several days now...so we/ve increased probability of precipitation...especially Friday. By
00z Saturday...the European model (ecmwf) increases the precipitable water at kmaf to 1.45
inches...well-above the 99th percentile of normal for this time of
year...so a decent shot at much-needed rainfall will be in the
cards. Saturday will see another shot at convection...mainly over
the eastern zones. Models even try to redevelop convection along
the dryline Sunday/Memorial Day...but differ on placement...so we/ve
kept grids dry then.
For temperatures...the NAM has been way too cold on lows...especially in
lieu of expected return moisture...so we/ve generally stayed above
guidance. Highs look reasonable.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Andrews Texas 83 60 96 70 / 0 0 0 0
Big Spring Texas 83 60 95 70 / 10 0 0 0
Carlsbad nm 87 61 97 66 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden Texas 97 70 95 75 / 10 0 10 0
Fort Stockton Texas 90 66 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass Texas 80 64 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs nm 81 58 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa Texas 83 45 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
Midland International Airport Texas 85 62 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa Texas 85 63 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
Wink Texas 91 62 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
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