Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1242 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Update...
updated for aviation.
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Previous discussion... /issued 1022 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Discussion...
A weak cold front will pass through the midsouth overnight
with a wind shift from SW to northwest. Drier air will filter in behind
the front with dewpoints dropping into the 50s by morning. Updated
sky condition to mostly clear for the remainder of the night. Otherwise
forecast looks great.
Sjm
Previous discussion... /issued 629 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Discussion...
Updated for 00z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 253 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
Discussion...
Just a few light showers on radar this afternoon...with no
significant strengthening trend noted as we quickly approach peak
heating. Nashvilles morning sounding indicated a pretty capped
atmosphere to our east...and that likely extends across most of
west Tennessee and north Mississippi. It would take temperatures
in the lower to middle 80s to overcome such a cap...and west
Tennessee temperatures are currently in the middle 70s. So we are
not expecting much more development than we are already seeing
this afternoon.
A cold front is approaching east Arkansas and will traverse the
midsouth tonight. Dew points are in the 50s behind the front...but
temperatures aren't much cooler at all. In fact...tomorrow will
likely be warmer across much of the midsouth due to increased
amount of sunshine. Expect highs in the low to middle 80s.
Another cold front will move down from the north Friday night. No
return flow is expected ahead of this front...so moisture will be
very limited. As a result...only expect minimal precipitation if
any...with the best chance over west Tennessee near the Tennessee
River.
Cooler conditions will return to the midsouth behind this
secondary front. Temperatures will be most noticeably cooler during
the morning hours when overnight lows will drop into the middle
40s to middle 50s Saturday morning. A high sun angle will allow
temperatures to warm quickly Saturday. Highs should be near
normal...generally in the low 80s. Continued warming is expected
Sunday well into next week with no significant precipitation
expected. Afternoon highs will be in the middle 80s for much of
the upcoming work week. Kids should have a beautiful first week
out of school across much of the midsouth.
&&
Aviation...
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period.
Winds will be light and variable overnight gradually becoming
northwest at 5 to 10 knots Thursday morning. Winds will diminish
some Thursday night.
Ars
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Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 57 74 53 81 / 10 0 0 10
mkl 51 72 47 79 / 10 0 0 0
jbr 53 73 50 80 / 10 0 0 10
tup 58 76 47 82 / 10 0 0 0
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Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
&&
$$
