Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
731 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Update...
Updated for the 12z aviation discussion.
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Previous discussion... /issued 302 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013/
Discussion...
The midsouth will continue to be dominated by a weak northwest
flow aloft and weak surface high pressure in the low levels.
Models show temperatures...humidity...and rain chances over the
next few days seeing very little to any change. Highs will
generally be in the low 90s...with lows around 70f.
For today and tonight...slight rain chances will remain across the
northern counties where weak disturbances in the flow will have
the best influence. The remainder of the midsouth will be dry and
mostly sunny. For tonight this slight rain chance will expand
eastward as a finger of the ridge builds north over the Ozarks.
Thursday through Saturday...very similar days are anticipated as
several shortwaves crest the ridge and slide southeast towards the
Tennessee River valley. For this reason have bumped up probability of precipitation from
ten to twenty percent both day and night...which in reality is
just splitting hairs...as the majority of the area will still
end up dry. There is some uncertainty Friday night and on
Saturday with the slight rain threat as models indicate a brief
increase in upper level heights.
Feel better chances for rain will occur for the period Sunday
through Tuesday...as the GFS indicates a surge of more tropical
moisture tracking eastward along the Gulf Coast and then turning
north up the Mississippi River. This trajectory is where the
weakness will lie between the two ridge centers. Dewpoints will
increase a degree or two over the area along with heat indices.
The weaker wind field aloft will generate more scattered pulse
type storms that will be more diurnal and slow moving. So some
midsoutherners could pick up a quick inch...while others nothing.
Jab
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Aviation...
VFR ceilings should prevail through the 24 hour taf period...but MVFR
visibilities will be possible both early this morning and again Thursday
morning in areas of fog.
An old outflow boundary left over from overnight convection across
northwest Tennessee along with subtle disturbances in northwest
flow aloft could potentially become a focus for afternoon
convection. Confidence remains too low to add mention in the
kmkl/kjbr taf sites at this time...but will be closely watched
through the day.
Light winds should rule through the forecast period.
Jlh
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Preliminary point temps/pops...
mem 90 72 92 73 / 10 10 20 20
mkl 89 65 90 67 / 20 20 20 20
jbr 91 68 92 70 / 20 10 20 20
tup 90 68 92 69 / 10 10 20 20
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Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.
Tennessee...none.
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$$
