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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
731 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014

high pressure will extend over the area from the west today. A dry
cold front will move across the area late tonight. High pressure
will build over the area Sunday and then extend over the area
through middle week. A cold front will approach the area late Wednesday
and move through on Thursday.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 700 am Sat...minor adjustments for hourly temperature/dew points next
few hours...otherwise forecast on track.

/Previous discussion/
as of 330 am Sat...sunny and dry conditions expected today with weak
short WV ridging aloft in wake of short WV...and surface high pressure
extending over area from west. Maximum insolation and light west winds support
maximum temperatures from around 70 Outer Banks to 73-75 inland.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/...
as of 330 am Sat...dry cold front.. assctd with surface and upper lows
moving from eastern Canada toward New England..will approach from northwest
this evening. This will produce tighter pressure gradient across area
tonight...producing increasing wrly winds shifting to northwest late with
frontal passage. Only scattered clouds expected with front...but winds will keep
temperatures into upper 40s inland and 50s coast.


Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
as of 3 am Sat...extended period will remain dry except for a
chance of showers next weekend. An upper ridge will pass through
the Carolinas Monday with zonal flow for midweek...ending with
a trough for next weekend. At the surface a dry cold front will pass
through Sunday morning. Little if any moisture associated with it
and temperatures Monday will only be a few degrees cooler than Sunday.
Temperatures rebound into the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. The next
cold front moves through late this week. Better moisture supply
with this one and have included chance probability of precipitation Thursday through


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through 12z Sunday/...
as of 720 am Saturday...IFR fog at kpgv and MVFR at kiso expected to
burn off quickly next hour. Prevailing VFR expected rest of period
all sites. Clear skies and light winds dominating through
tonight...but enough mixing to preclude fog development late

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
as of 3 am Sat...VFR through the period. Winds will be light
northwest Sunday...light and variable Monday...then light
southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 700 am changes with update.

As of 330 am Sat...northwest winds will continue to diminish today with
weaker pressure gradient. Winds will become west to SW and increase tonight
ahead of dry cold front moving in from northwest...then shift to northwest late
with speeds 15-20 knots.

Nwps initialized too high and leaned to blend of previous forecast and
ww3 during period. Heights will subside to 2-3 feet by late afternoon...but
build again to 3-4 feet late tonight.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
as of 3 am Sat...a cold front will pass through the marine zones
Sunday morning with northwest winds during the day. Winds will
range from 15-20 knots north to 10-15 knots south. Winds will
diminish into Monday as a ridge of high pressure passes through.
On Tuesday and Wednesday the ridge will be off the coast with
southwest winds across the area generally 10-15 knots and seas 2-4


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...jbm
short term...jbm
long term...hsa

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