Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
946 am EDT Friday Jul 25 2014
cold front will settle just south of the area today and weaken
Saturday. Hot ridge of high pressure will build through Monday. A
strong cold front will move through the region Monday night. Dry
and pleasant high pressure will build in by middle week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 950 am Friday...current forecast reasoning still looks sound.
Loop of hourly analysis shows best moisture and instability mainly
to the south today.
Weak surface cool front analyzed just south of the Crystal Coast this
morning. The front will waver in the vicinity or just off the
coast today. With boundary located nearby...have left in low
chance probability of precipitation across the southern zones...as veering winds to the
southeast and forecast cape vals at or above 1000 j/kg...along with marginal
shear values...should support scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon. Coverage and intensity will be much less than
yesterday's activity. Low level thickness values today drop a bit
with light NE flow and suggest high temperatures in the middle/upper 80s...low
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Saturday/...
as of 3 am Friday...winds decouple overnight tonight with any
convection diminishing with loss of heating. Skies become mostly
clear with high pressure briefly ridging in. Temperatures will be near climatology
with upper 60s inland to low 70s coast.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 206 am Friday...models in good agreement through much of the
forecast period with timing and strength of the upper level and
surface features. Some deviation by Thursday on timing of upper
trough and strength of surface trough along the coast on Thursday.
Broad upper ridge over the southwest part of country with troughin
continuing over the East Coast with mainly zonal flow over eastern
North Carolina through the weekend. Weak ridge at the surface with
southerly flow. Troughing at the surface to form over central North
Carolina on Sunday with an increase on southwesterly flow. Front
drops into the trough Monday afternoon with good instability. Front
pushes offshore Tuesday morning with northerly flow over the area
Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 950 am Friday...IFR/MVFR ceilings due to NE surface flow/weak frontal
inversion across east NC. The low stratus will mix out to a scattered/broken
VFR deck by middle morning today. Front will waver near the vicinity of
Crystal Coast today. Could be an isolated shower/storm especially near koaj
and kewn though confidence is low and will leave out of the
terminals at this time. Winds will be light NE early veering southeast
late in the day. Skies MO clear tonight with some radiation fog/br
possible as winds become calm.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 210 am Friday...mainly dry Saturday and Sunday...however cant
rule out a stray shower. Expect flying conditions to be VFR through
the weekend with exception of predawn hours with possibility of
patchy fog and low clouds lowering conditions to sub VFR with light
wind and wet ground. Front will approach eastern North Carolina
Monday and move through the area Monday night. Good chance of
showers and thunderstorms with MVFR/IFR conditions in the storms.
Front will move offshore Tuesday with VFR conditions expected.
short term /through tonight/...
as of 950 am Friday...light north-northeast winds across the waters with the
front to the south. Winds will veer around to east then southeast
by late day with seas remaining only in the 2 to 4 foot range.
Light easterly flow tonight no higher than 10 kts.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/
as of 216 am Friday...variable flow Saturday morning will become
southwesterly over the North Carolina coastal waters through the day
on Saturday as surface troughing sets up over central North
Carolina. Gradient will tighten through the night Saturday and
Sunday with speeds approaching Small Craft Advisory criteria Sunday
night as front drops into trough. Front will move through the area
Monday and Monday night with speeds dropping below Small Craft
Advisory criteria behind the front on Tuesday.
Seas 2 to 4 feet through the weekend...increasing to 5 feet in the
outer waters Sunday afternoon...and up to 7 feet ahead of the front.
Seas will subside behind the front on Tuesday.