Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
346 am EDT Thursday Oct 2 2014
high pressure will ridge into the region through Friday. A strong
cold front will push through the area Friday night through early
Saturday morning. High pressure will build into the region this
weekend through early next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 2 am Thursday...the strong low-level inversion across inland
areas has allowed winds to decouple with patchy fog 2-4sm across
parts of eastern NC. No change expected with areas of dense fog
developing for inland areas through this morning...with fog or low
stratus eventually mixing out shortly after sunrise.
An upper level ridge axis will briefly shift over eastern NC today
with overall pleasant temperatures and light and variable winds.
The surface ridge over much of the eastern Continental U.S. Will shift east
as the day progresses with winds shifting east-southeast for areas south of
Highway 70 and east-northeast for areas north. Temperatures will again be a few degrees
above climatology for early October...with highs 81-83 f for
southwestern zones to 76-78 across northeastern areas. The obx
will remain cooler with highs in the middle to upper 70s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/...
as of 210 am Thursday...the upper ridge will continue to slowly shift
east over eastern NC tonight. The surface ridge will shift off the
coast tonight allowing winds to shift southeast but the question remains
how far inland the light southerly flow penetrates. Forecast
soundings are not indicating a strong surface based inversion as
observed over the past few nights...thus light mixing and lack of
an inversion would suggest fog not being an issue tonight. Low
temperatures will be mild with low 60s expected inland and middle 60s along
the obx and Crystal Coast.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
as of 340 am Thursday...no major changes to the extended portion
of the forecast. GFS/European model (ecmwf) continue to mostly agree on timing of
strong cold front Friday night and early Saturday. A southerly
flow on Friday will lead to a warm day ahead of the cold front
with high temperatures reaching the low/middle 80s. Deeper moisture
does not arrive until later in the evening and continue to think
Friday will remain largely dry. Band of showers and a few thunderstorms
will arrive late in the evening Friday or into the early morning
hours on Saturday. Both the GFS/European model (ecmwf) move the precipitation
offshore between 12z and 18z Saturday with cool and dry air
surging in behind the front Saturday evening. Think temperatures
will still be able to warm well into the 70s on Saturday behind
the strong cold air advection kicks in. The first real shot of fall temperatures
arrive in earnest Sunday with highs struggling to reach 70 after
morning lows in the upper 40s inland to upper 50s coast. Slow
moderation in temperatures will occur into next week with minimums
in the cool 50s and highs mainly in the comfortable 70s.
Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /today and tonight/...
as of 2 am Thursday...another round of fog/low stratus expected
early this morning due to a strong surface based inversion
allowing winds to decouple...and lack of cloud cover allowing
excellent radiational cooling. Persistence would favor IFR/LIFR
conditions for pgv/isolated given little change in synoptic setup over
the past 48 hours. Light and variable winds expected today as high
pressure resides over eastern NC. Any morning fog/low stratus will
mixing out after sunrise with forecast soundings indicating
scattered stratocumulus deck by the afternoon.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 340 am Thursday...most of Friday should be in the VFR
category with warm southerly winds and increasing late day
clouds. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will
accompany a strong cold front across the region Friday night
through about midday on Saturday with occasional MVFR and perhaps
IFR ceilings and visibilities. The precipitation should end by early
Saturday afternoon with generally clear skies and VFR conditions
into early next week.
short term /today and tonight/...
as of 220 am Thursday...latest surface and buoy data indicate
northerly winds around 10 knots with seas elevated around 4 feet for
the central and northern waters with seas 2-4 feet for the southern
waters. High pressure at the surface and aloft will be centered
over eastern NC today. Northerly winds will shift NE late this
afternoon for the central and northern waters...and diminish
further tonight to less than 10 knots. The southern waters may see
winds shift east-southeast/southeast this afternoon and tonight with speeds
generally less than 10 knots. Local Swan/nwps performing better
than wavewatch so will continue seas forecast mostly based of it.
Seas will continue 3-4 feet northern/central waters to 2-3 feet
Long term /Friday through Mon/...
as of 340 am Thursday...not much change in marine forecast for
extended period. S/SW winds will increase Friday afternoon ahead
of strong cold front with SW winds increasing to 20 knots by
Friday night and up to near 25 knots early Saturday...before
veering to west/northwest and diminishing by Saturday evening. Per local
Swan/nwps model...seas will build from 3 to 5 feet Friday
afternoon up to 5 to 7 feet...especially central waters Friday
night and Saturday before subsiding Sunday afternoon as offshore
winds diminish. Winds and seas Monday should generally be west/SW 10
to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet.
Some increased swells along with increasing astronomical tides
will lead to a moderate threat of rip currents north of Cape