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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
223 PM EST sun Feb 7 2016

rapidly strengthening coastal storm off the Carolinas will move
away from the area through tonight. Weak high pressure will build
in Monday. An Arctic airmass will build in Tuesday through the
rest of the week.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 140 PM...will update to add some sleet and snow mix across
coastal plains this afternoon. No sig accumulate expected.

No change in High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory headlines.
Damaging winds possible across the obx and downeast Carteret
County mainly through the evening. Continued very high impacts
through tonight across coastal areas as the coastal storm
continues moving slowly northeastward along the Gulf Stream. The low
will continue to deepen and become vertically stacked as the upper
low swings over the offshore waters of the Carolinas. Impacts will
peak this evening as strongest winds expected between about 4pm
and midnight. North northeast winds will back to the north
northwest and this is when significant coastal flooding is
expected to shift to the southern and eastern portions of Pamlico
Sound. See coastal flood statements for details. Rain will end
from west to east during the evening hours...ending across the
Outer Banks after midnight. Winds will slowly diminish after
midnight as the low begins to pull away from the area. Temperatures
expected to range from 30-35 inland to near 40 on the coast.


Short term /Monday/...
as of 2 PM sun...a cold front will pass through eastern North
Carolina in the late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening with
westerly low level flow seen and limited moisture. Kept probability of precipitation in
the 20-30 percent range across western sections. Temperatures rebound into the lower
and middle 50s inland and around 50 coast.


Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
as of 220 PM sun...amplified upper pattern to continue through
the period with a western ridge/eastern trough leading to below
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the
upcoming week. Several strong shortwaves will rotate around the
upper trough during the next several days and try to enhance the
precipitation potential but deep westerly flow over much of the
eastern US will keep the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Cut off
as sources for moisture inflow while moisture associated with the
associated weak surface systems themselves mostly gets wrung out
on the western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains.

Will continue to carry low chance probability of precipitation for late Monday into Tuesday as an
area of enhanced moisture associated with a couple of middle level
shortwaves passes through our area. Although temperatures will be
mostly above freezing when conditions are most favorable for
precipitation development it will be cold enough for any light
precipitation that develops to be mix of rain and snow. A
secondary reinforcing shot of cold air is forecast to arrive Sat
and the associated front could touch off a few rain or snow
showers but again any precipitation amounts are expected to be

Highs most days will be mostly in the 40s but even colder high
temperatures could occur Thursday and next Sunday when potential
highs could only be in the 30s.


Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/...
short term /through 18z Monday/...
as of 1245 PM sun...a potent coastal low will make for very
unpleasant flying conditions through the next 12 to 18 hours.
MVFR/IFR conditions along the coast to VFR further inland as rain
has overspread the area. Expect lower ceilings/visibilities closer to the
coast and perhaps along the southern tier of the County Warning Area through much
of the koaj and kewn. As the low deepens off our
coast this afternoon...expect very gusty north winds to develop
through the afternoon/evening hours...slowing backing to the north-northwest.
The precipitation should move out through the evening and winds
will start to come down by early Monday morning. VFR across all
taf sites overnight. Conditions improve rapidly early Monday
morning with a more pleasant day in store under light northwest flow.

Long term /Mon night through Fri/...
as of 220 PM sun...scattered light rain/snow showers will be
possible Monday afternoon and Monday night as a fast-moving front
passes through. Any precipitation that occurs is forecast to be light so
conditions should remain VFR. Dry weather with prevailing VFR
conditions are expected Tuesday through Friday. It is also
forecast to be breezy through the period with westerly flow 10 to
20 knots.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 2 PM sun...Storm Warning continues for all of the coastal
waters and the Pamlico Sound. Gales elsewhere. Buoys currently
gusting up to 40 kts across central coastal waters and Pamlico Sound.

Potentially life threatening conditions for the marine area
through tonight as rapidly strengthening low pressure approaches
the waters of eastern NC. Winds will be steadily increasing
through the afternoon peaking late afternoon through the evening
hours tonight. Winds could gust near hurricane force 64 knots across
the outer central coastal waters. Storm force winds will develop
this afternoon as the low pressure area approaches from the southwest and
seas will build through the afternoon...and will peak this evening as
high as 20-24 feet across the central waters. Winds rapidly
diminish across the marine area on Monday as the low pulls away to
the NE. Northwest winds 15-25 knots early diminish to 10-15 knots by afternoon.
Seas 8-14 feet across the northern and central coastal waters subside to 6-10
feet in the afternoon. Seas 5-9 feet across the southern coastal waters early
subside to 4-6 feet in the afternoon.

Long term /Mon night through Fri/...
as of 220 PM sun...very poor boating conditions are expected to
continue through the entire period with northwest to west flow
15 to 25 knots predominating and maintaining elevated seas of 6 feet or
higher. Thus at least advisory level headlines are expected to be
continued for wind and/or seas for all the coastal waters through
the period with only marginally better conditions on the sounds
and adjacent rivers.


Tides/coastal flooding...
as of 220 PM sun...rapidly deepening low pressure passing off of
the NC coast today into tonight will produce gale to storm force
NE to northwest winds, leading to significant coastal flooding. The most
significant impacts will be mainly over the southern Pamlico Sound
basin this evening as the winds turn to the north northwest. Water
levels of 3 to 5 feet above normal are expected from areas adjacent
to the Pamlico Sound/Neuse River along down east Carteret County
(including Cedar island) to Ocracoke and over portions of Hatteras
Island vulnerable to northerly winds. Coastal flood warnings
remain in effect for these areas as a result. Craven County may
receive water level rises 2 to 3 feet above normal and therefore a
coastal Flood Advisory in effect here.

On the ocean side, water levels of 3 to 5 feet above normal are
expected mainly north of Cape Hatteras through this afternoon
and early evening due to the strong northerly winds. Shore break
in excess of 10 feet combined with wave runup is expected to produce
significant beach erosion and areas of overwash.

Please see the coastal Flood Warning/advisory for more details.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...Wind Advisory until 4 am EST Monday for ncz046-047-080-081-
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EST Monday for ncz103-104.
High Wind Warning until 4 am EST Monday for ncz095-103-104.
Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ncz095.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 am EST Monday for ncz093.
Marine...Gale Warning until 4 am EST Monday for amz136-137.
Storm Warning until 4 am EST Monday for amz135-156-158.
Gale Warning until 7 am EST Monday for amz130-131.
Storm Warning until 7 am EST Monday for amz150-152-154.


near term...jac
short term...jac
long term...jme
tides/coastal flooding...mhx

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