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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
706 am EST Friday Nov 28 2014

high pressure will build into the area from the west today...then
gradually move east over the weekend. A cold front will move through
the area Monday night with high pressure building in Tuesday.


Near term /today/...
as of 7 am Friday...latest surface analysis shows strong 1032 mb high
pressure centered over central Tennessee and northern al/MS. Surface high
will continue to build eastward into the region today. No sig
changes needed to ongoing forecast for update. Lingering
clouds...associated with upper trough...continue to push off the
coast this morning with mostly sunny skies today. Low level
thickness values...northwesterly flow and sunny skies support highs in the
middle 40s...about 15-20 degrees below normal.


Short term /tonight/...
as of 255 am Friday...quiet and cold night expected with surface high
centered over the area. Increasing high clouds late with weak
shortwave...which could limit full radiational potential...but
still think temperatures will drop quickly as winds decouple. Overnight
lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s.


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 300 am Friday...main changes with this forecast issuance were to
go with slightly faster frontal passage Monday night...with lowered
maximum temperatures Tuesday.

Latest models in good agreement with previous forecast Sat-Monday with only
minor adjustments to temperatures. Upper ridging and SW winds ahead of
approaching front will result in nice warm-up for sun and Monday...with
highs near 70 inland sections Monday.

00z GFS and European model (ecmwf) in better agreement that cold front will push
through area late Monday night...and that main threat of precipitation will be
Post-frontal with over-running. Added slight chance of showers late
Monday night.

Still some model differences for Tuesday night-Wednesday night...with European model (ecmwf)
indicating slightly stronger coastal trough development with main surface
high center moving off quickly to NE. Stuck with previous forecast that
period given low model confidence. Both models do indicate precipitation
threat mainly northwest and offshore of area...thus kept probability of precipitation 20$.

Cool and dry high pressure builds in Thursday behind another cold

After very cold temperatures Sat morning...min temperatures expected to be above
freezing rest of period. Maximum temperatures warming to 5-10 degrees above normal
for sun and Monday...then a bit or a roller coaster Tue-Thu.


Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 7 am Friday...pred VFR conditions expected through the
period as high pressure builds into the region from the west. Northwest
wind gusts up to 15kt late morning and afternoon.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 300 am Friday...moderate confidence in VFR conditions for
Saturday through Monday period with high pressure extending over
area. Some sub-VFR conditions possible with NE surface flow late Monday night
and Tuesday.


short term /through tonight/...
as of 7 am Friday...latest observation show northwest winds 15-25 knots with gusts to
30 knots...yielding seas 4-7 feet across the waters. Strong cold air advection will
continue this morning...with winds gradually diminishing late
morning and afternoon as surface high builds over the area. Small Craft Advisory
continues for the waters and sounds through this afternoon and
this evening. Winds will continue to diminish tonight becoming
10kt or less and seas 2-4ft.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 300 am Friday...models in good agreement with previous forecast
Saturday through Monday with moderate SW winds developing as surface
high moves offshore and cold front approaches from northwest. Did adjust
forecast for faster frontal passage late Monday night and stronger NE winds
Tuesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely as seas build to 6-8 feet.


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for amz130-131-135.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for amz152-
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for amz156-
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for amz150.


near term...cqd
short term...cqd
long term...jbm

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