Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1013 PM EST Monday Jan 26 2015

Synopsis...
low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast will deepen rapidly
as it lifts northeast away from the area tonight and Tuesday.
High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday...then pass
offshore Thursday. A cold front will move through the area
Thursday night into early Friday.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
as of 1010 PM Monday...patchy light rain continues across the
region...mainly across the southwestern County Warning Area. Additional light
precipitation will approach from the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia/Hampton Roads region
overnight and should arrive around toward morning per the latest
3km hrrr. Cold air should gradually arrive in eastern NC after
midnight with freezing levels lowering to under 1000 feet by 12z
Tuesday. Any remaining precipitation would be able to mix with
and eventually change to snow especially over the northeast
portion of the County Warning Area per the hrrr model. This in combination with
surface temperatures expected to remain above freezing and
relatively warm ground temperatures will preclude any significant
accumulations and impacts.

Low temperatures will fall into the 30s overnight and expect most
areas will remain above freezing through sunrise.

No major changes to current forecast.

&&

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
strong vert stacked low will continue to deepen and move up the
eastern Seaboard Tuesday...while deep upper trough continues
across the East Coast. Moisture will continue to wrap around the
system Tuesday...and while moisture continues to look limited
there will be the potential for a brief period of winter weather.
Thermal profiles and critical thickness values indicate the precipitation
transitioning to primarily light snow/snow showers Tuesday morning
across eastern NC. Temperatures will generally remain the 30s Tuesday morning
and only warming to around 40/low 40s during the afternoon. With
surface temperatures above freezing much or all of the period...still expect
minimal impacts with little to no snow accumulation. Northwest areas from
Greenville and Williamston to the Albemarle Sound region and the
northern obx will have the best chance to see some light accumulation
as this area will be under the deeper wrap around moisture the
longest...but with the relatively warmer antecedent conditions any
accumulation expected to be confined primarily to grassy and
elevated surfaces. With light quantitative precipitation forecast amounts...not expecting more
than a dusting at any location. Precipitation will likely transition back
to a rain/snow mix Tuesday afternoon as surface temperatures warm to around 40.

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
as of 345 PM Monday...moisture moves offshore Tuesday night and Wednesday
with dry conditions and mainly clear skies. High pressure builds into
the region Wednesday and Wednesday night...then shifts offshore Thursday as the
next clipper system approaches from the northwest. Lows Tuesday night
and Wednesday night will be in the middle 20s inland to lower 30s along the
coast. Highs Wednesday around 40-45 with about 5-7 degrees warming for
Thursday.

Gaining a little confidence with a northern stream clipper system to
impact the region late week as the GFS and European model (ecmwf) starting to
converge on a solution. The 12z European model (ecmwf) has trended drier and not as
strong with the upper level shortwave. Both models producing very
light quantitative precipitation forecast Thursday night with limited available moisture. Thermal
profiles support all rain with above freezing temperatures below 850
mb. The front pushes offshore Friday morning. Showers may linger
along coastal sections in the morning but the trend will be for
clearing skies through the day as Arctic high pressure builds in from
the northwest late Friday through Sat. Highs Friday around 40-45
before the strong cold air advection commences but only expect upper 30s to
lower 40s Saturday.

Below normal confidence continues late next weekend with the
potential for another low to develop across the area. Both GFS and
European model (ecmwf) have trended much wetter for late Sunday into early
Monday...however there remain differences in the details with the
upper level pattern and especially the surface pattern...specifically
the track of the surface low. There are implications of ptype concerns
the low tracks along the coast or offshore but at this time
operational models track the low across eastern NC (12z ecmwf) or
north across the middle Atlantic (12z gfs).

&&

Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term /through 00z Wednesday/...
as of 625 PM Monday...high confidence of MVFR conditions through
the night into early afternoon on Tuesday as potent upper system
dives across the Carolinas producing light rain...becoming mixed
with or possibly changing to light snow late tonight and early
Tuesday morning. Conditions should quickly improve Tuesday
afternoon as the low quickly exits to the northeast.

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 345 PM Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through much of
the long term. A clipper system will track across the area Thursday
night but little moisture is expected with this system and VFR
expected to dominate but cannot rule out a brief period of MVFR.
Cold high pressure builds into the area late Friday and Sat. Cold air
advection and/or a very dry airmass should preclude any significant
fog development.

&&

Marine...
short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 1010 PM Monday...winds continue to ramp up on the coastal
waters and sounds with gusts to 28 knots at Duck Coe pier and 25
knots at Diamond buoy. Seas have finally responded over the past
couple of hours with 5 to 7 feet at the northern buoys. Small
craft advisories were issued earlier for all of the near shore
waters/the sounds/and The Alligator river. A brief period marginal
gales are possible over the central waters late tonight into early
Tuesday. Miller type "b" cyclogenesis off of the NC coast during
the next 24 hours will lead to hazardous winds and seas developing
tonight. This evening the flow will become northwest and increase
to 25 knots with higher gusts as rapidly developing low pressure
moves up the East Coast leading to building seas of 6 to 8 feet by
early Tuesday morning. Strong Small Craft Advisory conditions
continue through Tuesday.

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 345 PM Monday...north-northwest winds will remain strong...15-25kt gusts
30-35kt...through midweek as low deepens to the northeast and
reinforces the pressure gradient along the NC coast. Small Craft Advisory
conditions expected to continue through Wednesday...then winds
will begin to diminish Wednesday night and back to the west/SW
Thursday as surface high pressure shifts offshore. The potential for
Small Craft Advisory conditions return late Thursday night and Friday as a cold front
moves through the waters and strong cold air advection developing Friday through
early Saturday.

Used a blend of wavewatch and local nwps as the nwps is usually
overdone in northwest flow situations. Elevated seas of 6 to 9 feet
expected Tuesday and Wednesday...highest central and northern waters before
gradually subsiding through Thursday. Seas expected to build back to
4-8 feet Friday and Friday night...then gradually subside through
the day Saturday.

Persistent gusty north-northwest flow...tonight through Wednesday...could
result in minor water level rises for sound-side areas of the
Outer Banks adjacent to the Pamlico Sound.

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Tuesday night for
amz130-131.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EST Thursday for amz150-152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Wednesday for amz156-158.

&&

$$

Synopsis...btc
near term...ctc
short term...btc
long term...sk/cqd
aviation...ctc/sk
marine...ctc/btc/sk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations