Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1246 am EDT Sat Nov 1 2014
a strong coastal low pressure system will develop off the North
Carolina coast this evening and move northeast off the East Coast
through Sunday. High pressure will build in from the northwest
late Sunday into early next week then move off the coast on
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1245 am Saturday...lowered mins to around 40 coastal plains
with good radiational cooling. Upper level trough will continue
to dig toward the southeast helping to develop a surface low across the
Piedmont of NC. A coastal low offshore will migrate to the north
and east. Therefore...north winds will continue overnight with
clouds filtering into the region ahead of this potent system to
the west. Given this dynamic weather pattern...low temperatures may
eventually level off as the bl mixes and cloud cover moving in
from the west helps insulate the low levels. Lows temperatures forecast
to drop to around 40 inland coastal plains to low/middle 50s along
the immediate coast.
Previous forecast...a deep upper trough currently resides over
the eastern Continental U.S. With a strong shortwave embedded in the
northwesterly flow over the midwestern states that will quickly
shift southeast into Georgia and South Carolina by 12z Saturday
morning. Eastern NC will reside between systems with the departing
low pressure off the coast and developing low pressure Lee of the
Appalachian Mountains moving towards the area later tonight. The
sharp moisture gradient as noted by the latest satellite blended
total precipitable water product will continue tonight with precipitable waters
falling below half an inch. The overall dry airmass and increasing
clouds from the west should inhibit fog development late tonight
or early Saturday morning. Overnight lows generally middle 40s/lower
The strong shortwave aloft will become a closed low over the
Carolinas on Saturday as it moves off the Cape Fear coast. Strong
lift will be present so maintained scattered thunderstorms during
the day with categorical probability of precipitation in the afternoon. Latest model suite
suggest some banded precipitation may develop along and south of Highway 70
to the Outer Banks...but this is difficult to nail down with
confidence beyond 6-12 hours. Current storm total quantitative precipitation forecast through
Saturday night is around a half inch inland to an inch along the
Crystal Coast and nearly 1.50 inches along the obx. Temperatures will
remain mild Saturday due to clouds and precipitation with highs in the
middle 50s inland to low 60s across the obx and southern coast.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Sunday/...
as of 415 PM Friday...the surface low will shift off the NC coast
between 18-00z Saturday afternoon and deepen quickly as it moves
northeast towards southern New England. The strong upper low will
shift northeast away from the region as the upper trough axis slowly
shifts east through the Carolinas. Strong cold air advection and
a tightening pressure gradient will produce strong northwesterly
winds across eastern NC. BUFKIT soundings support wind gusts
upwards of 45 to 55 miles per hour across the Outer Banks and counties
adjacent to the eastern Albemarle and Pamlico sounds late Saturday
evening through early Sunday morning. Wind advisories have been
posted for Tyrrell...Carteret...Mainland and Outer Banks Dare and
Hyde counties. The low will shift well off the NC coast Sunday
morning bringing an end to precipitation from west to east. Temperatures
Saturday night will be cooler with lows in the low 40s inland to
low 50s along the coast.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
as of 415 PM Friday...models in general agreement during period
and in line with previous forecast.
Strong cold air advection will continue over area Sunday with Arctic high pressure
moving in from northwest as deepening surface low races out to NE. Cold air scu
will gradually diminish across area during the day...but low level
thicknesses support maximum temperatures only in low-middle 50s with full
insolation. Surface high center will build over area Sun night with
winds expected to decouple inland of coast...allowing maximum
radiational cooling. Min temperatures around 32 likely mainly along and west
of Highway 17...and freeze watch/warning and/or frost advisory will
likely be needed with later forecast updates.
High and dry conditions expected Monday-Tuesday with ridging surface and
aloft...resulting in gradually moderating temperatures.
European model (ecmwf) and GFS do differ slightly with next short WV trough late week as
GFS is slower. Both models indicate assctd front will be mainly dry
with deeper moisture drying up coming across mountains...and lowered probability of precipitation to
only 20% for Wednesday night and Thursday. Cooler and drier for Friday.
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through Saturday/...
as of 1230 am Saturday...expect pred VFR conditions overnight.
Increasing clouds will likely preclude fog development
overnight...though cannot rule out a brief period of light patchy
fog toward morning with light winds across inland areas at isolated and pgv.
Rain showers should gradually overspread the area today with
lowering cloud bases...best coverage in the afternoon as low
pressure system impacts the region. Expect MVFR conditions to
develop by this afternoon...with gusty north-northwest winds developing.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 415 PM Friday...high pressure will dominate through the period
with dry air mass producing VFR conditions. Strong and gusty northwest
winds will gradually diminish Sun afternoon and evening.
short term /through Saturday night/...
as of 1230 am Saturday...latest surface and buoy data indicate north winds
10-20 knots with gusts around 25kt across the central waters due
to a tight pressure gradient between the low pressure well
offshore and high pressure briefly building in from the northwest.
Seas continue at 5-7ft north of Ocracoke and 2-4ft south. Winds
and seas will slowly subside overnight as the surface low
offshore shifts farther east moving the best pressure gradient
farther offshore as well.
A strong coastal low pressure system will develop off the NC coast
this evening. The low will move northeast towards New England
Sunday with strong cold air advection and a tightening pressure
gradient producing gale force winds for most waters with storm
force winds expected across the outer portions of the waters from
Oregon Inlet south to Ocracoke. Gale warnings continue for all
eastern NC coastal waters with storm warnings for the central leg
as winds will gust 50-55 knots Saturday night into Sunday morning.
These strong winds will lead to dangerous 15-20 feet seas which may
produce high surf and minor beach erosion. Winds will diminish
below gale force Sunday with seas lingering at Small Craft Advisory levels into
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 415 PM...ongoing gale force winds with strong cold air advection will
continue Sun morning...with gusts gradually subsiding below gales
sounds and southern waters Sun afternoon. Surface high center will gradually shift
S of area Monday allowing winds to back to west-SW with speeds less than
15 knots into Wednesday.
Went with higher nwps over ww3 for seas with cold air expected to
mix well over warmer waters...resulting in higher gusts. Seas
peaking 15-20 feet late Sun night will gradually subside will subside
but some 6 feet heights over outer portions of northern waters into Monday
evening. Lighter winds will allow seas to drop to around 2 feet
2-3 feet tidal anomalies are likely along vulnerable coastlines
adjacent to the Pamlico Sound as strong north-northwest winds develop Saturday
night and continue into Sunday. The northern Outer Banks and
southern Pamlico Sound...especially south of Hatteras, and down-
east Carteret County will be particularly at risk for at least
minor flooding with possibly moderate coastal flooding if strong
gale force winds develop over the Pamlico Sound.
NC...Wind Advisory from 11 PM EDT this evening to 7 am EST Sunday
Wind Advisory from 11 PM EDT this evening to 10 am EST Sunday
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM EDT this evening to 5 PM EST
Sunday for ncz103-104.
Marine...Gale Warning from 6 PM EDT this evening to 11 am EST Sunday
Storm Warning from 10 PM EDT this evening to 7 am EST Sunday
Gale Warning from 6 PM EDT this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for