Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
930 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014
a strong cold front will move through eastern North Carolina
tonight. The front will become stationary over the offshore waters
through the week...drifting back toward the coast late in the week.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
as of 920 PM Monday...storms now well offshore with drier middle level air
moving in. Surface cold front is still west of the coast with models
indicating winds shifting to north/NE after 06z. Will keep small pop over
coastal waters but keep land areas dry. May have some fog develop where
it rained but not confident enough to add to grids as dewpoints may
drop a bit late as cold front crosses. Lows will drop into the 60s
well inland with 70s beaches.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
as of 3 PM Monday...we should be mainly dry...as surface front will have
shifted offshore. However...retained a slight chance thunder as
850 mb mb flow remains SW despite light north flow at the surface. Some
elevated instability coupled with lingering low/middle level moisture
could generate an isolated thundershower especially across the eastern
2/3 of the forecast area. Pleasant temperatures expected Tuesday with highs in the middle 80s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
as of 230 PM Monday...an unseasonably deep longwave upper trough
will reside over the eastern Continental U.S. Through the middle to late week
period. Surface high pressure to the west will ridge into the region Tuesday
night through Thursday night with a frontal boundary stalled well
offshore bringing light northerly flow and unseasonably low dewpoints
across the region. Cannot rule out an isolated shower developing
through peak heating each afternoon but with a relatively dry
airmass in place...precipitable waters below 1.25" (less than 25 percentile for
this time of year)...coverage will be minimal and will keep probability of precipitation
below 10 percent. Temperatures will be comfortable with lows in the low
to middle 60s inland to around 70 coast and highs in the middle 80s to
low 80s obx.
By Friday...the offshore boundary begins to retreat westward as an
inverted trough while shortwave energy and moisture from an upstream
system moves across the area bringing increasing precipitation chances. By
late in the weekend into early next week the upper trough lifts
north and is replaced by the subtropical ridge building in from the
western Atlantic while the quasi-stationary surface trough continues
across eastern NC. Moist S to SW flow persisting aloft...surface
convergence along the trough and an unstable environment will keep
chance probability of precipitation in the forecast through the weekend and into early next
week. Temperatures remain near or slightly below climatology with seasonable
dewpoint temperatures for the later half of the long term.
Aviation /23z Monday through Saturday/...
short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 720 PM Monday...a cold front will drift off the coast overnight.
Dewpoints have already dropped deep inland and since they received no
rain not expecting fog. Closer to coast dewpoints still high and will
be slow to drop later plus there was rain so added low end MVFR
visibilities to ewn and oaj. Any fog that develops will rapidly burnoff Tuesday
with VFR expected rest of the day with mclr skies.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 230 PM Monday...high pressure building in from the west will bring
good flying weather for the middle of the week with VFR conditions
dominating. Cannot rule out patchy early morning fog at the
terminals each morning but with an unseasonably dry airmass in place
conditions are not conducive for widespread fog development. A trough
of low pressure moves back into the region late Friday and Sat bringing
increasing moisture and chances for showers or thunderstorms.
short term /tonight through Tuesday/...
as of 920 PM Monday...winds currently light over majority of coastal waters
in wake of band of storms. Cold front inland will gradient slide
offshore later tonight with winds becoming north-northeast 8 to 15 kts. Seas
will average 2 to 4 feet...with some lingering 5 feet seas outer central waters
this evening. North-northeast winds will continue Tuesday at 10 to 15 kts as front
drifts further off the CST with seas 2 to 4 feet.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 230 PM Monday...high pressure builds in from the west through the
middle of the week with a stalled frontal boundary well east of the
waters. Winds will predominately be NE to east at or below 15 knots Tuesday night
into Friday with seas around 2 to 4 feet. The front retreats westward as
a coastal trough late Friday into Sat with winds becoming southerly less than
15 knots east of the trough with seas generally 2 to 3 feet.