Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
920 PM EDT Friday Oct 9 2015
a cold front will approach the area tonight and move offshore
through the weekend. Another front will cross the area Tuesday
night followed by high pressure through late week.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
as of 920 PM Friday...clouds have been rapidly developing across
eastern NC late this evening in warm advection regime ahead of
advancing cold front. The cold front has moved across the
mountains and is forecast to advance rapidly into eastern NC late
tonight. All of the operational models develop precipitation with
this system across our area mainly 6-12z Saturday especially over
areas north of Highway 70. Will ramp up probability of precipitation from chance to
likely/categorical in all areas by early morning Saturday. No
changes to forecast lows with readings inland in the lower to
middle 60s and middle to upper 60s beaches.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through 6 PM Saturday/...
as of 325 PM Friday...a cloudy raw day with northeast winds and a
steady light to occasionally moderate rain is expected on
Saturday. Temperatures will show little recovery with highs only
rising about 3 or 4 degrees...remaining in the middle/upper 60s
inland and lower 70s coast. Rainfall amounts will generally be
less than one-quarter inch although an isolated area of one-half
inch amounts could occur.
Long term /Saturday night through Friday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...models in close agreement through the short term.
Made only minor tweaks to current forecast. Upper shortwave will
linger along the NC/SC coasts through Sunday night. As a
result...the surface low off the coast will be slow to lift out.
Trend in probability of precipitation the same...ending from the northwest Saturday night
into Sunday night. Slight chance to chance probability of precipitation remain on Monday
over the southern coastal counties and Outer Banks with moisture
wrapping around the offshore low moving to the northeast. Fast
moving cold front sweeps through Tuesday. Moisture profiles from
forecast soundings not impressive so will leave slight chance probability of precipitation
as is. Dry and mild Wednesday and Thursday as surface ridge passes
through the region. Models depict dry cold front passage on Friday
with best available moisture staying far to the north.
Aviation /01z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through Saturday/...
as of 545 PM Friday...looking at continued VFR conditions through
the evening. Then moisture associated with a cold front moving
into the area will overspread eastern NC after midnight eventually
leading to widespread rain and deteriorating aviation conditions
from MVFR to IFR which will then continue through Saturday. There
is a significant difference between the aviation MOS and the
statistical aviation guidance (hrrr/narre/sref) when these
conditions will develop with the statistical guidance some 8 hours
later than the MOS. Since we expect widespread precipitation to
develop by 12z Saturday will shade the forecast closer to the MOS.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...sub-VFR Saturday night in scattered showers all
4 area terminals. Isolated showers possible Sunday and Monday at
terminals ewn and oaj...but dry for pgv and isolated. Isolated showers
possible Tuesday as a fast-moving cold front passes through. Winds
Sunday north northeast around 10 knots...north around 5 knots
Monday...west southwest 10-15 knots Tuesday and west around 5
short term /tonight and Saturday/...
as of 920 PM Friday...southwest winds at 10 to 15 knots will
continue ahead of the cold front through this evening. Per latest
high-res guidance...the front should pass across the area after
midnight and move through all of the near shore waters by early
morning Saturday. Winds will become north/NE behind the front and
expect a bit of a surge...especially over the central and
northern waters Saturday with NE winds 15 to 20 knots and seas
building to 3 to 5 feet...but per latest wind and local Swan model
guidance...conditions should stay just below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through the short-term period.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
as of 3 PM Friday...north to northeast flow will be the rule Saturday
night through Monday due to surface low pressure off the coast.
The low will linger into Monday then move quickly northeast. Flow
will back to southwest Monday night as a fast-moving cold front
approaches from the west. Winds will be from the west Tuesday when
the front moves through. Little change to direction behind the
front Wednesday with a west flow continuing. Winds/seas will not
exceed small craft levels through the period.