Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1237 am EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will build into the area overnight through Thursday
then move off the coast Thursday night. A weak cold front will
move through from the west Friday night. A secondary stronger cold
front will cross the area Saturday night stalling south of the
region Sunday. Developing low pressure in the plains will push a
warm front north into the area late Monday into Tuesday...with a
cold front approaching Wednesday.

&&

Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1235 am Thursday...radar is indicating a weak feature moving
southward across the Crystal Coast region of eastern NC late this
evening. As this feature moves through winds shift to NE and
increase. No clouds or weather are associated with it but the
models are treating it as a sort of backdoor cold front with an
increase in northeast to north flow especially over the waters as
a secondary surge of cold advection develops over the area. This
surge in winds over land will be brief but will be stronger and
more persistent over the waters. Winds over land may actually
decouple again late but dry advection should preclude the
formation of fog overnight. Overnight lows will be cold with the
normally colder sheltered inland locations forecast to reach the
upper 30s with lower 40s common across most of eastern NC. With
fairly large temperature/dewpoint spreads expected per latest 00z MOS
would not expect widespread fog formation.

&&

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 am Friday/...
as of 300 PM Wednesday...elongated surface ridge axis extending over
area from north-northwest in morning will gradually push east-southeast across area
during the day. Mostly sunny skies expected with light and variable
winds during afternoon...and sea breeze expected for coastal sections.
High temperatures around 70 SW to around 60 Outer Banks.

&&

Long term /Friday through Thursday/...
as of 315 PM Wednesday...models are in better agreement with the timing of
a front approaching and moving through the area late Friday. It
appears there will be an opportunity for some thunderstorms to develop as
the system moves through around or shortly after peak heating. If
timing plays out just right could see a small chance for an isolated
severe thunderstorm during the afternoon. Kept highest probability of precipitation associated with
this feature at 50 percent...with all rain pushing off the coast by
Saturday morning behind a second stronger front.

For the remainder of the period followed close to wpc guidance with
a blend of the previous forecast and GFS thrown into the mix. We
should remain dry through Sunday with just a very slight chance of a
shower on Monday. A better chance of a shower or thunderstorm will come
Tuesday into Wednesday as an area of low pressure passes to our
north and trailing cold front approaches the area. This will couple
with a developing trough and possible upper low over the eastern US by
Wednesday.

Followed close to GFS MOS and wpc guidance on temperatures. Temperatures
will run a bit above normal Friday through Saturday...cooling down
just slightly Sunday and remaining near seasonal the remainder of
the period.

&&

Aviation /04z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through Thursday night/...
as of 1235 am Wednesday...very high confidence in VFR conditions
through the taf period as high pressure with dry weather and light
winds prevail across eastern NC. Drying dewpoints and some mixing
will preclude fog formation early this morning.

Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 315 PM Wednesday...mainly VFR conditions expected through much of
the week. A weak front will approach eastern NC on Friday and move
through early Friday night with isolated MVFR conditions possible in
heavier showers/tstms. Following that dry conditions will dominate
through Monday.

&&

Marine...
short term /through Thursday/...
as of 1235 am Thursday...secondary northerly surge to 20 knots
associated with cold advection is forecast to develop by 06z and
continue through 15z before diminishing. This moderate flow may be
enough to produce 4-7 feet seas over the waters north of Ocracoke
early this morning so no changes to current headlines. Expect
winds to become light and variable Thursday afternoon as the surface ridge axis
moves across the waters.

Blend of nwps and Swan in general agreement with previous forecast
seas...with heights building to 5-7 feet over northern and central waters
tonight...then subsiding below 6 feet by late Thursday afternoon.

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 315 PM Wednesday...followed a blend of GFS...previous forecast and
latest wpc guidance through the long term period. Winds shift
southerly Thursday night into Friday morning ahead of an approaching upper
level shortwave and associated weak cold front. The front will cross
the eastern NC waters Friday night. Winds and seas should remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria with this frontal passage. A stronger backdoor cold
front will move through the waters from north to south Sat night
with winds veering north/NE behind the front by 12z sun. Winds and seas
again look to remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria...though cannot rule
out some rough seas 4-6 feet near Diamond Shoals with moderate surface
winds opposing the Gulf Stream current. Winds diminish by Sunday
night and slowly switch around to southerly as weak high pressure
slides off the coast by Monday. Light winds and quiet sees will
persist through Monday with winds picking up more after the forecast
period as the next low and cold front approaches the area. Local
Swan/nwps continued in close agreement with 12z wavewatch...and
predominately followed it followed by ww3 guidance towards the end
of the period.

&&

Fire weather...
as of 315 PM Wednesday...increased fire danger conditions with low
relative humidity and gusty northwest winds will continue early this evening. Low relative humidity
expected for inland sections again Thursday but winds will be light and
variable...thus fire danger conditions not expected to be as critical.

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for amz150-
152-154.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jbm
near term...rsb/jbm/jme/Lep
short term...jbm
long term...rsb
aviation...rsb/jme
marine...rsb/jbm/jme/Lep
fire weather...jbm