Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
707 PM EDT Thursday Jul 2 2015
high pressure will remain offshore as a trough of low pressure
lingers to the west. A frontal boundary will sag into the area
tonight and Friday, then linger near or just north of eastern
North Carolina through the weekend. High pressure will build over
the area by early next week.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 7 PM Thursday...showers and thunderstorms becoming more
widespread over the coastal plains and sound counties over the
past hour or so as upper trough continues to deepen with weak
boundary just to our north. Have tweaked probability of precipitation a bit based on
latest run of the 3km hrrr model continuing likely probability of precipitation inland but
decreasing to high chance along the immediate coast. Otherwise
minimal changes to the current forecast. Muggy low temperatures mainly
in the 70s again tonight.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/...
as of 315 PM Thursday...unsettled conditions will continue on
Friday as lagging short wave energy in combination with frontal
zone pushing into northern areas and remnant convective boundaries
conspire to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially
within the favored afternoon diurnal cycle. Cloud cover will hold
down instability and severe weather threat although a few storms may
contain some gusty winds. Heavy rain and localized flooding will
be more of an issue Friday as precipitable water peaks around 2.25
inches with potential training of cells. Overall precipitation
amounts are expected between 1-2 inches with some higher amounts
likely in the heavier downpours. Clouds/widespread precipitation will
hold high temperatures mainly in the middle and upper 80s on Friday.
Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
as of 315 PM Thursday...troughing the predominant pattern across the
region through next week. Stationary boundary lingers near NC/Virginia
border into Monday...after which it gets picked up and lifted
northeast by surface low just east of the southern Appalachians.
Numerous shortwaves embedded in the middle-upper flow will act on the
warm moist unstable airmass over the region to produce scattered
to numerous probability of precipitation. An overall downward trend in probability of precipitation going into the
middle of next week as the frontal boundary lifts away from the
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through 18z Friday/...
as of 705 PM Thursday...with showers/thunderstorms becoming more
numerous...expect some periods of MVFR ceilings through late
evening. Most of the shower/thunderstorm activity is forecast to
weaken and become less widespread in coverage after midnight with
a return to mainly VFR thereafter. Could see some fog develop
late tonight especially where any appreciable rain falls but will
leave out of tafs for now given the low confidence. VFR conditions
should prevail for the first half of Friday.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 315 PM Thursday...scattered to numerous showers and storms
possible into Sunday becoming more scattered Monday and Tuesday
with locally lower cigs/vsbys. Surface winds southwest 10-15 knots
Saturday...around 5 knots Sunday...light and variable
Monday...south around 5 knots Tuesday.
short term /through Friday/...
as of 705 PM Thursday...no changes to current forecast or
advisories with gusty southwest winds. Winds currently gusting to
29 knots at Diamond buoy and 26 knots at Oregon Inlet. Outside the
advisory area...expect 10-20 knot southwest winds. Seas will
build to as high as 5 to 7 feet later tonight over the central and
southern coastal waters and continue through Friday.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 315 PM Thursday...southwest flow continues through the period.
Rather tight pressure gradient will continue into Saturday then
loosens for the remainder of the period. Breezy conditions
forecast on the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters mainly south of
Oregon Inlet where small craft advisories remain in effect into
Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday winds mainly 5-15 knots and seas
2-4 feet throughout.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for amz152-154-
Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT Saturday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for amz158.