Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
250 am EST sun Mar 1 2015
a weak cold front will approach the area today and move through
Monday. High pressure will build over the region through midweek. A
cold front will move through the area Wednesday night. The front
will stall to the south Monday night then lift north through the
region late Tuesday. A stronger cold front will approach from the
west Wednesday into Wednesday night and cross the area on Thursday.
High pressure will build in from the west Friday.
Near term /today/...
as of 229 am sun...cold high pressure nosing through central and
western North Carolina with troughing along the coast. Area of light
precipitation across southern North Carolina moving into dry air
over the forecast area with evaporation causing only spotty
precipitation at best during the morning. At this time temperatures
remaining just above freezing. But possible evaporative cooling may
bring temperatures below freezing in localized spots...and if any
precipitation falls in areas with below freezing temperatures...will see
some freezing rain. Tempertures across the region will be above
freezing after sunrise so any precipitation that falls through the
day will be liquid. Majority of moisture initially evident in cross
sections around 7h with dry layer around 800 mb. Dry layer moistens up
this afternoon so expect majority of precipitation to hold off until
afternoon hours when moisture and lift increases. Moisture limited
to areas below 7h so precipitation will be low topped.
Coastal trough will move inland during the day turning winds to
south southeasterly...allowing temperatures in eastern sections to
reach into the upper 40s to lower 50s...while northerly flow in the
west will prevent temperatures from rising out of the lower 40s.
Moisture trapped below low level inversion for low clouds through
Short term /tonight/...
as of 239 am sun...coastal trough will lift out early during the
evening with flow across eastern North Carolina becoming southerly
ahead of approaching front. Lift and moisture continue over the area
through the evening hours as middle level energy moves through. Lose
moisture as low level flow becomes westerly after midnight...so will
have decreasing probability of precipitation during the predawn hours.
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
as of 230 am sun...cold front will cross the region early Monday.
Continue chance probability of precipitation Monday morning mainly CST with rain ending by afternoon.
Drier air will spread into the region late Monday and Monday night as
the front stall to the S and high pressure noses in from the north. Highs
Monday mainly in the 50s with 30s Monday night. The front will lift
back north as warm front late Tuesday with rain chances gradient
increasing through the day. Highs will range from upper 40s/near 50 north
to middle/upper 50s S.
Eastern NC will be in warm sector Wednesday with gusty SW
winds...both GFS and European model (ecmwf) show limited moisture over region so
continue low chance to slight chance probability of precipitation and temperatures into lower 70s
inland. Near shore water temperatures are cold and this will keep beaches
much cooler with possible threat of sea fog. Stronger cold front
will approach Wednesday evening and cross late Wednesday night. GFS/European model (ecmwf) very
similar in timing of front now and show strong cold air advection developing by
12z Thursday and continue through the day. Based on this signif lowered temperatures
late Wednesday night through Thursday. Precipitation will end late Thursday/Thursday evening
from northwest to se, with strong high pressure building east over the
region from the Tennessee Valley area into Saturday. Thicknesses
fall quickly behind the front Friday with highs only expected in
the 40s Friday and upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday.
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through 06z Monday/...
as of 1221 am sun...lowering ceilings across eastern North Carolina
taf sites this evening will continue to drop to MVFR over next
couple of hours. Trough along the coast with high pressure wedging
south through central North Carolina. Some areas of light
precipitation over southern North Carolina moving north. Have not
included this in tafs at this time. Isentropic lift will continue to
keep ceilings low through the period. Cold front will push toward
the coast through the day wih ceilings lowering to IFR and chance of
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 230 am Sunday...cold front will cross Monday with
scattered precipitation early...mainly CST with poss some lower
cigs/vsbys. By Monday afternoon drier air spreads in with VFR expected
that will continue into Tuesday morning. The front will lift back north as
warm front later Tuesday with possibly some lower flight
categories as moisture increases over the area with scattered rain. A
cold front will approach from the west Wednesday as surface flow
shifts southwest and may become gusty Wednesday afternoon with
just widely scattered rain showers. Strong cold front will cross
late Wednesday night and move offshore Thursday. Good covering of rain Wednesday night
and early Thursday with precipitation diminishing late...poss mixed with some
snow inland. Sub VFR conditions good bet later Wednesday night and much
short term /today and tonight/...
as of 246 am sun...all flags have expired across the eastern North
Carolina coastal waters this morning as seas and winds have dropped
below Small Craft Advisory criteria in the loosening pressure
gradient. Northeasterly flow over the waters this morning will
become southeasterly as the coastal trough moves inland. Will sea
speeds pick up to around 20 knots in the outer watesr by late
afternoon as the coastal trough starts to lift out of the area. Flow
will become southwesterly ahead of approaching cold front tonight.
Seas will be in the 2 to 4 foot range tonight.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 230 am sun...a cold front will cross the waters Monday. West-northwest
winds 10 to 20 kts early will become north during afternoon. Seas Monday
mainly 3 to 5 feet with poss of some 6 footer far outer waters.
NE winds 15 to 20 kts expected Monday night as high pressure builds in
from the north with seas continue 4 to 6 feet far outer waters. Winds briefly
diminish Tuesday morning then begin to ramp up from the S late Tuesday as
warm front lifts north through the area. Seas will diminish to 2 to 4
feet early Tuesday then ramp back up to 4 to 6 feet by Tuesday evening
highest far outer central waters. Gusty south-southwest winds will develop Tuesday
night and continue Wednesday ahead of approaching cold front...seas will
build to 5 to 9 feet outer waters Wednesday. The cold front will cross the
eastern NC coastal waters Wednesday night with strong high
pressure building in from the west Thursday, leading to gusty north
winds Thursday with big seas of 5 to 9 feet.