Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
329 am EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast lifts slowly
northeast and away from the area today. Meanwhile high pressure
builds in from the west through Friday. A dry cold front will move
through the area Saturday. High pressure will build over the area
late Saturday and remain through the middle of next week.
Near term /today/...
vertically stacked low south of Long Island will continue to
drift NE away from the region today while upper level ridge
builds east of the Mississippi Valley. Subsidence in the wake of
the departing upper low will suppress most diurnal cloud
development today however NE areas may continue to see intervals
of scattered/broken SC rotating around the deep low to the NE. Insolation
will help high temperatures reach into the upper 60s inland with middle 60s
Short term /tonight/...
multi level ridge builds into the area tonight with mainly clear
skies and calm/light winds leading to good radiational cooling.
Expect lows ranging from near 40 for the normally coolest inland
locations to low to middle 50s at the beaches with a light wind off
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
as of 330 am Thursday...models remain in good agreement and
consistent with previous forecast during the extended period. Weak
ridging surface and aloft across area Friday in between departing
upper low to the northeast and a clipper short wave diving in from
northwest late Friday night. The short wave will aid in a dry cold
front passage early Sunday...followed by more high pressure and
dry conditions Sun night into Wednesday. Temperatures near normal through
Monday with lows in 40s except 50s obx and highs around 70...then
warming to 5-10 degrees above normal by Tuesday into middle week ahead
of another cold front approaching from the west.
Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through 06z Friday/...
high confidence in prevailing VFR conditions through the period.
Skies will continue to clear as low pressure pulls away to the NE
this morning. May see few-scattered diurnal SC today but otherwise
mainly clear through the evening. Northwest winds again becoming gusty (to
18-20 kts) shortly after sunrise and continuing through middle afternoon
before beginning to diminish.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
as of 330 am Thursday...predominant VFR conditions expected
through the long term. High pressure will build in from the west
through the period with an overall dry airmass thus do not expect
reductions in visibility or ceilings...although cannot completely rule
out brief radiation fog in low spots and river valleys in the
early mornings due to large water/land temperature contrasts.
short term /through tonight/...
small craft advisories remain in effect for the sounds today and
for the northern and central coastal waters into Friday.
Moderate to strong northwest winds will continue today in the wake of
departing deep low pressure to the NE. Winds will begin to
gradually decrease by middle to late afternoon and the slow
diminishing trend will continue through tonight as high pressure
builds in from the west. Seas will be slow to subside and will
likely need to keep Small Craft Advisory for seas going into Friday.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 330 am Thursday...winds and seas will diminish Friday with
middle-Atlantic surface low moving well northeast of the waters.
Extended the Small Craft Advisory for the waters north of Diamond
Shoals Friday until middle afternoon...mainly for lingering seas
around 6 feet for the outer fringes of the coastal waters. Winds
and seas will increase again late Sat through Sunday with another
dry cold front moving through from northwest...then diminish again
Blend of previous forecast with latest Swan/nwps and wavewatch for
seas. Seas will subside to 3-5 feet Friday afternoon then 2-3 feet by
Saturday. Heights building again to 3-5 feet Saturday night and
Sunday with the dry cold front passage...then subside Monday
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for amz130-
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for amz150-152-154.