Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
330 am EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Discussion...
Current...light southeast-south-southeast flow remains in place on western periphery of the
Atlantic ridge. H50-h30 low is along the ecfl coast at this time and appears to
be starting to weaken as it drifts east-northeast into the Atlantic. Based on metars
and from what can be discerned from GOES-west imagery...skies are mclr
ovhd. A few observation are starting to report some light mist over the last
hour.
Today/tonight...looks like another active day of diurnal convection
for ecfl as deep moisture (mean precipitable water ~1.7") coupled with proximity
of the slow moving middle-upper low should allow for diurnal convection
to readily develop from late morning through the afternoon and early
evening. Mav probability of precipitation came in just a bit higher (~60) and see no reason
to depart from those numbers. Maximum temperatures pretty close to m80s along
the coast and u80s inland. Lingering early evening shower/few ts
should dissipate a few hours after sunset as middle/upper low will
open up into a trough as it continues to lift new away from Florida.
Similar to this morning...could see some patches of shallow late
night mist or fog. Mins within a degree or two of 70f.
Thu-Fri...the upper level low that was over the Florida Peninsula
earlier in the week will continue its merge with the larger trough
that will be swinging through the Great Lakes on Thursday and into
New England by Friday night.
The eastwards movement of upper low/shortwave will take most of the
available middle level moisture with it leading to drying in the middle
levels on Thursday...but leaving enough low level moisture for
scattered afternoon showers and storms. West-northwest steering flow
is expected to focus storms on the eastern side of the peninsula.
An even drier airmass moves in on Friday as the larger trough axis
moves east of the state along with the passage of a weak surface
front accompanying it. The front looks to be early enough in the day
that the best rain chances will be across the Treasure Coast and
near Lake Okeechobee.
Temperatures near seasonal normals in the upper 80s and low 90s with
lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Sat-Tue...middle to upper level ridge will build across the Gulf of
Mexico and into the Florida Peninsula over the weekend and into
early next week in the wake of the upper level system moving through
the northeast and Canadian Maritimes. Stout onshore flow will
develop on Saturday behind the week frontal boundary as the surface
high over the Great Lakes builds to the southeast and off the
Carolina coast by early next week.
Enough dry air will work in behind the front that rain chances will
remain fairly minimal (or nonexistent) through at least Monday...
with the possibility of a few Atlantic showers reaching the coast
especially across the Treasure Coast where moisture will be higher.
Onshore flow will keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler in the
low-middle 80s along the coast and middle-upper 80s inland...but lead to
warm and muggy overnight lows in the low-middle 70s along the coast and
middle-upper 60s inland.
&&
Aviation...may need to amend and throw in some MVFR mist for several
of the taf sites 09z-12z. Otherwise...introduced 2hr of tempo ts along
the coast in the 16-19z time frame...and 2-3hr inland 18-21z...
although activity will linger in vicinity of local aerodromes for at least a
couple more hours.
&&
Marine...expect circulation on western side of Atlantic ridge to continue
to produce a gentle to moderate southeast/S breeze <15kt. Seas in the 3-4ft
range through tonight.
Thu-Fri...surface ridge axis will be pushed southwards on Thursday
by a weak frontal boundary moving into the southeastern US. Winds
will generally be 5 kts or less during the day with east-southeast
flow around 10kts developing late in the afternoon with the sea
breeze. Front will move through the state late Friday morning with a
brief period of northwest winds before the flow becomes northeast
and increases late in the day. Seas 2-4ft.
Memorial Day weekend...northeast wind surge around 20kts will start
out the day on Saturday as high pressure builds in behind the
frontal boundary with strong winds expected to continue through the
day. Winds will only slightly diminish into the overnight hours and
Sunday with east winds 15-20kts. Wind surge will bring seas to
around 6ft offshore Sat afternoon into Sunday. An Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed starting Sat morning and continuing through the Memorial Day
weekend.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 86 69 88 69 / 60 30 30 20
mco 89 70 90 68 / 60 30 20 10
mlb 85 71 87 69 / 60 30 30 20
vrb 85 70 88 69 / 60 30 30 20
Lee 88 70 91 71 / 60 30 20 10
sfb 89 70 92 71 / 60 30 30 10
orl 88 71 91 72 / 60 30 20 10
fpr 85 70 88 69 / 60 30 40 20
&&
Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&
$$
Short term...cristaldi
long term....Moses
aviation...cristaldi
