Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1229 am CDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015

Update...
issued at 1230 am CDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015

Updated to include the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 334 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

Quiet weather for the short term period with high pressure ridge
moving slowly east over the Great Lakes region.

Diurnally driven cumulus will dissipate early this evening. Leftover
debris cirrus should also thin/dissipate overnight. Light winds and
ridge axis to the east should provide for another cool night...
especially int west central Wisconsin.

Return flow on the backside of the high will swing winds to a more
southeast/south direction over the region. Should see temperatures
warm a degree or two most areas as well. Any precipitation is
forecast to remain to the west of the County Warning Area through 00z Thursday.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 334 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

A little better agreement today between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) with
regards to the evolution of the upper air pattern for our area
heading through the end of the week and weekend. Model runs today
are a little slower with the short wave energy moving eastward
across the northern plains Wednesday night. This has resulted in
a drier forecast for much of the forecast area Wednesday night with a slower
progression to the chance probability of precipitation spreading across the forecast area on Thursday.
Thursday night and early Friday are the best periods for showers
and thunderstorms as the main shortwave energy moves through.
Widespread rain amounts of a half inch to one inch are likely.
This will also drive a low pressure system and cold front across
the forecast area. Although it is still several days away...there is a threat
for severe storms late Thursday and Thursday night as a surface
low pressure system deepens while moving from near kfsd to kdlh.
Central and southern Minnesota are the focus for severe weather during
the late afternoon and evening and across western WI later in the
evening.

Small chance probability of precipitation will linger over the region through the weekend
as a secondary system moves through. This system is a little
farther north. The trend heading through early next week will be
for a building upper level ridge across the western High Plains.
This should result in surface high pressure expanding across the
northern plains and upper Mississippi Valley region by middle week
with several days of fair weather along with seasonal temperatures.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1224 am CDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015

VFR expected throughout the period...with a ridge moving across
the area...mainly just high clouds passing overhead. Winds will be
mainly south tomorrow...but generally 5 to 10 knots.

Kmsp...taf reflects expectations with no additional operationally
relevant concerns at this time.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Thursday and Thursday night...MVFR ceilings and visibilities
expected afternoon and night with showers and thunderstorms
likely. South wind 10 to 20 knots.
Friday...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible early with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southwest wind 5 to 15 knots
shifting northwest.
Friday night and Saturday...VFR. Light and variable wind becoming
south 5 to 10 knots.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...none.
WI...none.
&&

$$

Update...speed
short term...dwe
long term...rah
aviation...speed

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations