Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
1217 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 352 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
Early this morning...the low pressure center was positioned in
southwest Minnesota near Marshall. The deformation band of snow with
this system was back across east central South Dakota extending
toward northwester Minnesota. The significant precipitation with the
winter storm has ended across the forecast area...but as the
surface low moves from Marshall...through St. Cloud toward
Duluth...the band will eventually swing east produce additional
light snow across western Minnesota late this afternoon and work its way
east tonight. Best chance for 1-2" accumulations from that band
will be in the greater Alexandria area. Otherwise...most of the
forecast area will see on and off drizzle during the day as the
middle level dry air continues working in and shuts off and ability
for ice crystals to form. Temperatures are holding in the low to
middle 30s across much of the area and that should remain
consistent...so not expecting any freezing issues today...except
possibly in west central Minnesota.
As the low moves through the central Minnesota...northwest winds will
develop on the backside...although speeds will be marginal in the 10-
20mph range across western Minnesota this afternoon. The snow band in the
advisory area may produce intermittent moderate snow rates and with
the marginal wind could reduce visibilities at times. The
remainder of the forecast area will see winds turn northwesterly
tonight and that band work across eastern Minnesota as it weakened
tonight. Minor snow accumulation is possible in eastern Minnesota and
Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 352 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
With the exception of some lingering snow showers or flurries on
Wednesday... the period looks to be mild and dry. The model
guidance is in good agreement on shifting the jet stream north...
and keeping what cold air there is trapped across the northern
portion of the continent. With flow mainly of Pacific origin
through the period... moisture return into our area is minimal
with things being scoured out over the high terrain of the west.
As a result... no precipitation is mentioned after Wednesday. A quick look
at the cfs suggests above normal temperatures will prevail through
at least the third week of the month... with even the coolest
members of the cfs ensemble only managing to cool to near normal
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1217 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015
Main surface low is over SW Minnesota this afternoon...though a secondary
low is developing over far northwest WI. Through the afternoon...the SW
low will fill in...with the northern low taking over. This process will
keep snow/ceilings in a relatively steady state through the afternoon.
Tonight...the cold front associated with this system will
eventually start moving east...with snow and IFR/lower ceilings moving
east across Minnesota toward WI...though this process does not look to
start until after 6z. As a result..delayed return of lower ceilings to
eastern Minnesota western WI. Clearing will be slow to get here and only Airport
that has a chance of going VFR prior to 18z Wednesday is axn.
Kmsp...ceilings will be a bit chaotic...jumping between 015 and 050
until the cold front gets here...which does not look to occur
until at least 9z. Losing confidence on msp seeing any more
snow...though rap/NAM BUFKIT soundings do show some light snow
working across the Twin Cities late tonight in the wake of the
cold front. However...not expecting any accumulations and about
it/S only impact would be the potential to see IFR visibilities.
/Outlook for kmsp/
Thursday...VFR. Winds SW 5-10 kts.
Friday...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Winds SW 10 kts.
Minnesota...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for